Ryan Grigson, Cavaliers, and American Kingpin: While We’re Waiting
May 26, 2017Unfortunately for Brock Osweiler the proof is in the film
May 26, 2017Is this a World Series hangover? Something just feels a bit off in the early goings of the 2017 MLB season as a fan of the defending AL pennant winners. The team is talented, having fun, and winning enough, but I cannot help but continue to ask myself “Are we there yet?” like a petulant child riding a couple of hours to his favorite amusement park. The journey of the season has always been a large portion of the overall joy, but I find myself anticipating October baseball- the best form of baseball.
The Indians (24-21) sit two games back of the Minnesota Twins (25-18) in the AL Central Division as the month of May grows short. They have alternated between showing they are one of the most talented teams by sweeping the MLB-best Houston Astros and struggling for consistency as they have lost the other three most recent series to the Twins, Tampa Bay Rays, and Cincinnati Reds. A year ago, the Indians were 24-20, sitting in second place, and alternating between appearing as a contender by beating Chris Sale and Jose Quintana back-to-back, and a pretender as the Twins were 10-31 with four of those wins against the Tribe.
A Terry Francona led team is not going to come scorching out of the gate. He understands the importance of pace over the long course of a season. Coupling that pace is the constant small injuries that have caused Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall, Abraham Almonte, Austin Jackson, Jason Kipnis, Brandon Guyer, Carlos Carrasco, and Corey Kluber to miss games- not to mention Cody Anderson (either a good bullpen arm or a seventh starter) will miss the 2017 season with a UCL tear. The Tribe can still count themselves fortunate though as none of the injuries have appeared to be the type that will linger throughout the season.
The starting pitching has been one of the biggest sources of frustration. Of the Opening Day roster rotation, only Carlos Carrasco (2.93) has an ERA under 5.0. Corey Kluber (5.06), Danny Salazar (5.55), Trevor Bauer (6.30), and Josh Tomlin (6.70) have given up far too many runs, which is why the rotation is ranked the fifth worst in MLB (4.98). The other starters can thank Mike Clevinger (1.56) for his three starts for that number not being worse. Of course, some of the reasons for all of the runs being scored is not on the rotation. Some poor early defense and back cluster luck (69.2% left on base) has the Indians with the eighth best FIP (field independent pitching) in MLB too. The starters need to be better moving forward, but the leap to do so is not as big as the ERA suggests.
The lineup has been a mixed bag. Francisco Lindor (122 OPS+) has added a power stroke to his outstanding defense to assert himself as a possible AL MVP candidate to watch. Yan Gomes (106 OPS+) and Michael Brantley (114 OPS+) are having seasons that bring back memories of when they were offensive leaders for the team. When he hasn’t been injured, Lonnie Chisenhall has been a pleasant surprise at the plate with a team-leading 125 OPS+, while not completely embarrassing himself in center field.
The good news stops there with hitters. Jose Ramirez (104 OPS+), Edwin Encarnacion (98 OPS+), and Carlos Santana (94 OPS+) were expected to help create a deep lineup of plus hitters, but each has been a mere league average bat thus far. Jason Kipnis (63 OPS+) appears to either be feeling the lingering effects of his shoulder issue, or struggling to work through what is essentially his Spring Training. Roberto Perez- thought in Spring Training to push for equal time at catcher- has a negative OPS+ score. Most of the other depth options (Tyler Naquin, Brandon Guyer, Yandy Diaz, Abraham Almonte, Dan Robertson) have struggled to provide anything at the plate, and the few who have are either injured (Austin Jackson) or barely used (Bradley Zimmer).
The one constant elite portion of the team has been the bullpen. Nick Goody and Andrew Miller have pitched over 40 innings, while only giving up a single run between them. Cody Allen (don’t let his first blown save distort your perception), Bryan Shaw, and Zach McAllister each have an ERA under 2.50 with Boone Logan under 3.00 as well. The FIP on each shows that their performance in run prevention is not completely out of bounds from what should be expected (Shaw’s being the largest gap). Dan Otero’s run might be over and Shawn Armstrong didn’t pan out as expected, but when those are your biggest bullpen gripes, things are going well.
So, what does it all mean? Well, the starting pitching is either going to perform to their peripherals and get healthier, or they won’t. Players such as Encarnacion are going to heat up at the plate, or they won’t. The bullpen is going to continue to dominate or… well, the Tribe should be just fine there. The point is that I do not think I am alone in falling into a bit of an early season rut watching the Indians, and it is time to shake it off and start enjoying the wonderfully talented team that plays on the corner of Carnegie and Ontario. Now, let’s go beat those Royals.
9 Comments
Are they just a team that plays to the level of their competition? That’s what it has largely looked like to me (even though I think it’s hard to actually do that in the game of baseball). Great for the post-season, but you have to get there first.
They just need to win 14 in a row and all will be good
eh, maybe I guess but, like you said, it’s hard to do in baseball. they’ve gotten a couple more lucky bounces in some games and a couple bad breaks in others. the replay guys uphold the double play on Wed and we win that series.
still an incredibly talented team. the division still stinks. so, we should be fine especially if Edwin/Carlos heat up at the plate in the warmer months (when power hitters thrive more).
As I think more about my comment, I think that it’s possible in baseball to play “up” to competition easier than it is to play “down.” Though it is easy to be complacent when you don’t think you’re challenged. But totally: breaks matter, and cold superstars don’t help.
In a sport where winning 55% of your games makes you really darn good, almost everyone “plays to the level of their competition” on a whole bunch of nights.
It’s also the case that at this point of the season, current record still isn’t much of a predictor:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-meaning-of-a-teams-50-game-record/
Wickman.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ebb00f36c6b3e0b5cca9e4d14d6942f960f45139595d94213da23204598b4527.jpg
I was saying that the other day. Would be worse if we were beating up on the crap teams and losing to all the good ones