Every so often, the behind-the-scenes discussions at WFNY are worth sharing. The latest Slack debate (of sorts) surrounds the Cleveland Browns and their potential interest in New England’s Jimmy Garoppolo.
The cost of a Garoppolo acquisition has ranged from a Sam Bradford-like first- and third-round pick, all the way down to some conglomerate of middle-round selections. Below, a few of us discuss what, if anything, we would be willing to move for the former second-round pick. The following Slack discussion takes place between 4:30 p.m. January 4 and 10 a.m. January 5. Do enjoy.
scott 4:38 PM
Proposing a Jimmy Garoppoloround table. Just listening to Bull and Fox and they’re saying if you think he’s the guy and New England asks for the No. 1 pick, you give it to them.
mgbode 4:55 PM
Holy hell… but sports radio gonna sports radio
scott 4:55 PM
Are they wrong?
mgbode 4:55 PM
Yes. There is no way to know that he is the guy and you are going to have to pay Jimmy big money in the not too distant future before you will really know it.
scott 4:56 PM
If he’s a franchise QB don’t you do whatever it takes?
mgbode 4:56 PM
How can you be sure he is?
scott 4:56 PM
Not my job.
mgbode 4:56 PM
I understand, but there is no discernable measure to say he is worth that price
scott 4:57 PM
You don’t presume they have ways? Video. Scouts. Sources.
pat 4:57 PM
I’m sorry, a backup quarterback should never be able to command the top pick. I can’t imagine an organization asking for that price with a straight face
scott 4:57 PM
He’s only a backup because he’s playing behind arguably he best quarterback ever. This isn’t Matt Moore
mgbode 4:58 PM
94 pass attempts in 3 seasons, 2 starts behind a great offensive line. Basically a third-round pick.
nom 4:58 PM
WHOA HEY PUT SOME RESPECT ON MATT MOORES NAME
scott 4:58 PM
pat 4:58 PM
Is he? Wasn’t Matt Flynn putting up video game numbers behind a future Hall-of-Famer?
mgbode 4:58 PM
Pass blocking… New England has been quite good. Sample size factor as well. His best game against a team (Dolphins) that was 29th in passing yards given up, 25th in passing TDs.
scott 5:00 PM
My point is that our opinions of his value means very little. If he’s the guy, as they’re saying, you do it. Same for Kizer or Watson etc. They’re saying do whatever it takes to get the guy
mgbode 5:02 PM
Yes, but asset valuation is huge. You are always guessing to some degree but the amount of risk on Garoppolo doesn’t equate to No. 1 overall. I wouldn’t, but maybe I could understand more at No. 12. If they want No. 33 and a little more… OK, now that is more in line. The contract is also a huge factor. Last year of his contract, now you would have to pay him now hoping he’d be the guy to make that trade instead of drafting Watson at 12 or Mahomes and 33 and you can ride them out for four-to-five years.
pat 5:02 PM
Right, but I think we can accurately state that no team should value an unproven backup quarterback that high. The Browns shouldn’t give it up for Jimmy G. There just isn’t a body of work to trust in evaluating.
scott 5:03 PM
There’s more than any collegiate QB.
pat 5:03 PM
In some ways I think it’s easier to evaluate a college QB than a backup. A great team and culture can make a mediocre QB look really good.
pat 5:05 PM
If Jimmy G had to step in for 12 games Matt Cassel style then I think that is a body of work you can do something with.
joshpoloha 5:06 PM
No way I give up No. 1 for Jimmy. No. 12? Maybe, if they think he could be the guy, but No. 1 is too much. You know the Pats will easily take No. 12 for him when it comes draft time.
scott 5:06 PM
I would argue being in NE has *helped* him. Learning from the best is a good thing.
pat 5:07 PM
But you can’t know that. Could be a Matt Flynn scenario. Impossible to say which.
joshpoloha 5:07 PM
I don’t know much about Jimmy G, but I do know about NE backups who have gone to another team that overpaid them and they didn’t work out.
scott 5:07 PM
“You know the Pats will easily take No. 12 for him when it comes draft time.” No we don’t.
joshpoloha 5:08 PM
If the Browns are on the clock at No. 12 and offer up NE, I don’t see anyway they decline that offer. But, obviously, none of us know. It’s just all speculation, both how good he is and what the Pats would take for him.
scott 5:08 PM
Matt Flynn was a seventh-round pick. As was Matt Cassell. Brian Hoyer was undrafted. Garoppolo was 66th overall. The whole “other New England backups” argument carries zero weight here.
mgbode 5:08 PM
Tom Brady is about to turn 40 years old. if Belichick believes that Jimmy G is a franchise guy, then he’s trading Brady not Jimmy.
scott 5:09 PM
Which is why they’re not just going to give him away
mgbode 5:11 PM
No. 1 overall pick is worth 2.5x the No. 12 pick. Over 5x the No. 33 pick. So, even if NE wants a first round pick, the value of that pick varies wildly.
scott 5:12 PM
mgbode 5:15 PM
Also for consideration, if he is that good and waits a year, then he can start for Denver or Houston or another good team that needs a QB. To incentivize him enough to stay with a team like the Browns, big money would have to pe granted upon a trade (what I tried to allude to above). NE also has incentive to NOT trade him to an AFC contender who needs a QB (Houston, Denver). And, there are not that any NFC teams in a similar station. So, the market for Jimmy would seemingly be among the bad teams who need more than a QB.
joshpoloha 5:16 PM
This is a serious question: Has there been a backup QB that was traded to another team, immediately became the new team’s starting QB and actually succeeded?
scott 5:17 PM
pat 5:21 PM
Trying to think of some recent ones. Coming up empty. Was Kurt Warner a backup for the Giants before his swan song season for the Cardinals?
mgbode 5:26 PM
Yes, they benched him for Eli despite Eli. Then, the Cardinals benched him for Matt Leinart before giving Leinart between-the-20’s and Warner the red zone duties. He’d fall in the Joe Montana bucket though (previously successful QB who is an older, possibly injured veteran). Tony Romo is this offseason’s version.
scott 5:37 PM
Matt Hasselbeck is another.
joshpoloha 5:38 PM
Yeah, Favre’s probably the best example.
mgbode 5:42 PM
Do we count Aaron Brooks?
pat 5:44 PM
Hasselbeck is a good one.
mgbode 5:45 PM
would you give up the No. 1 overall pick for Hasselbeck?
pat 5:46 PM
No sir, I would not
scott 5:47 PM
Dude took a team to the super bowl. Hell yes I would. This is starting to border on keeping jaret wright instead of trading for Pedro Martinez.
mgbode 5:50 PM
Long career for him too. Really good (never elite) for two of his 10 years in Seattle. Pretty good for three. Pretty bad for five. Also, not sure Hasselbeck was the biggest reason they made the Superbowl, but yeah, they certainly got there.
pat 5:51 PM
I’m looking for a dare to be great situation.
mgbode 5:52 PM
Also, we haven’t even factored in how good we think Myles Garrett is going to be.
pat 5:54 PM
Oh man. Pairing Garrett with Emmanuel Ogbah is making me salivate. Could be the calzone, but it’s probably those edge rushers.
mgbode 5:55 PM
Hooker at No. 12, Mahomes at No. 33 and let’s go! that OL problem will still need fixed and so will a bunch of other spots, but still.
scott 5:57 PM
They will literally never be better than a .500 team without a QB. And I say this as a huge Garrett fan and Allen and Hooker.
mgbode 5:58 PM
That doesn’t mean you need to use the No. 1 overall pick to try to force the issue
scott 5:58 PM
Not to force it. But it wouldn’t be a non starter. Not to be confused with a Nom starter
mgbode 5:59 PM
And we are saying all this on Jimmy-G ahead of Connor Cook playing his first ever NFL game. He could be the backup with almost the same sample size as Jimmy G but in a playoff game (small sample size cannot be trusted).
davesterling 7:02 PM
The thing I worry about Jimmy G is the Hoyer factor. The same as the Kelly Holcomb factor, or the Derek Anderson Factor. These guys can have success until they build a body of film. They quickly get exposed after they play longer. It’s happening all around the league. The true great QBs perform and separate themselves.
scott 7:08 PM
I think that’s a disservice to Jimmy. He was a second round pick. Comparing him to those guys is kinda silly.
nom 7:09 PM
First off a Nom-starter would be some metric that tries to calculate Tribe attendance factors. Second, it was only one game, but Jimmy G tore the Phins apart. It was insane how quickly he was making decisions and getting the ball out of his hands w accuracy. It wasn’t Matt Flynn throwing it up and connecting on deep plays. It was systematically tearing the Phins apart.
davesterling 7:11 PM
With tom brady at 40, if Jimmy ist the guy, the Patriots dont get rid of him, even for a first rounder.
nom 7:13 PM
You think they’d pay him even w Brady having two more years? I don’t know. Maybe. And would Jimmy even stay? They’re not gonna franchise him.
davesterling 7:15 PM
I feel like if Bill B comes up to you and says “Brady is going to retire at the date of “x” and you are next in line. you probably stay.
nom 7:17 PM
Maybe. I get the argument. But if that’s in two years and most NFL contracts are for 3-4 I just don’t know. And like I said, Jimmy can likely make waaaay more on open mkt or with new team. I don’t think patriots can afford him and still maximize Brady’s last years.
davesterling 7:18 PM
I dont know. I think that being on the patriots is different.
wfnycraig 7:20 PM
Generically speaking if you think Jimmy is a long term NFL starter you definitely give up a first round pick. I’m not saying it will cost that much but it’s more important than anything else in sports I think. So yeah. If that’s the trade on the scales it’s worthwhile
mgbode 7:41 PM
You guys moved off the ridiculous notion of No. 1 overall pick. No one said the No. 12 pick could not be in play even if we disagreed on using it for him.
nom 7:46 PM
Is it just the top pick or like, the top pick for Jimmy and a third?
mgbode 9:50 AM
The Browns’ second round pick would be considered almost equal to most late first rounders to NE anyway.
davesterling 9:51 AM
I’d take a second and fourth.
scott 9:52 AM
Garoppolo and Garrett and another defender at 12 would make me unable to wear sweatpants for weeks.