Watching Gregg Popovich ether Donald Trump: While We’re Waiting
January 23, 2017Cleveland Browns 2016 season position review: Offensive Line
January 23, 2017One thing that I always come back to with the Cleveland Browns and the draft is winning the game of poker. That doesn’t always mean you’ll end your draft with generational talents and franchise-altering players who will take you to the Super Bowl. It is, however, a process that â if repeated often enough â should result in better-than-average results. When the Browns are on the clock this year, even after their first overall selection, I’ll be looking to see Sashi Brown, Paul DePodesta, and the Browns brain trust execute well.
So let’s discuss one of the Cleveland Browns NFL draft cautionary tales. No, I’m not talking about the Julio Jones trade-down which became a topic during the Falcons decimation of the Packers to earn a Super Bowl appearance. Despite that trade not showing well on the ledger for the Browns, they didn’t get ripped off regarding value. The Browns just failed to turn those picks into worthwhile players, with all due respect to Owen Marecic. I’m talking about circumstances where the Browns had no draft chill. Look no further than the time that Butch Davis got out-maneuvered by Matt Millen of the Detroit Lions. Yes, this is the same Matt Millen who was President and General Manager of the Detroit Lions for the seven years preceding their winless season. In the middle of that run, he bested Butch and the Browns badly.
The Cleveland Browns wanted Kellen Winslow. Butch Davis had recruited him in college, and he had the kinds of skills that projected him to be one of the greatest tight ends of all time. In many ways, Butch Davis was correct in his assessment of Winslow. If Winslow hadn’t imploded his career on the back of a motorcycle â or, more accurately, off the back of a motorcycle â who knows what kinds of numbers he would have put up? Even as injured as he was, there’s no way the Cleveland Browns would have had their best season as an expansion franchise in 2007 without his 82 receptions and more than 1100 yards receiving. Butch Davis was correct about Kellen Winslow, but he still managed to get it wrong at the same time because of the way he played the draft game.
When the Detroit Lions were on the clock, they bluffed about wanting Kellen Winslow a spot ahead of the Browns. The Lions had been linked to receiver Roy Williams â whom they ended up selecting â but they convinced Butch and the boys that they’d steal K2 unless the Browns paid the price. And the Lions didn’t just want a little bit of value for the right to move up. They wanted a second round pick. The Browns bit and bit hard sending the 37-overall pick to the Lions to move up one spot from seven to six.
The NFL draft trade chart is outdated and just provides a general indication of value, but it’s instructive that this tool thinks the difference between the six and seven spots is just 100 points – 1500 points versus 1600. Pick number 37 is worth 530 points according to the scale. The Browns gave up 2030 points for 1600 points in value according to this simple scale.
While I don’t subscribe to the idea that Ben Roethlisberger would have turned out the same exact way in Cleveland as he did in Pittsburgh, it is notable that the Browns would have had many great choices if they had lost out on Kellen Winslow. If the Lions had picked him and the Browns were sitting on the clock at seven, they could have chosen Ben, or any number of other players including Steven Jackson, Vince Wilfork, Will Smith, Lee Evans, Jonathan Vilma or others. But really, the chances are that the Lions would have picked Roy Williams, and the Browns would have gotten their guy anyway. They just got outplayed.
The Browns can’t let themselves get outplayed this year. I don’t like when people say things like, “This is the most important draft in the history of the Browns.” When you’re bad and the fans are restless, that’s every draft. The Browns have had many many “most important drafts” in our lifetime watching the team. All that said, this draft is an undeniable opportunity that shouldn’t come around all that often due to the extra picks and having the first overall selection.
We don’t know where every single pick will land because of compensatory picks between rounds that haven’t been figured out yet, but the Browns will have seven picks the top 150 or so players selected. They have picks one, 12, 33, and 51 right off the bat. In fact, if you use the NFL draft chart for, for whatever it’s worth, The Cleveland Browns are controlling over 9 percent of the value of the first 150 picks. In the first round, the Browns are in control of over 11 percent of the value with their current picks.
That’s why it is incumbent on the Browns to not get outplayed or out-maneuvered this year. If the Browns decide to consolidate picks and move up, it better be for good reason and for good value. If the Browns trade down at all, I hope it’s a scenario by which they are Matt Millen holding a player hostage from a desirous team that can’t help but lose its NFL draft chill. Yes, the Browns draft strategies have been so bad that I get to use Matt Millen as a good example for who the Browns could try and be. That can change in just one draft and it could be this draft. In fact, this could be the most important draft of our time as Browns fans. We just won’t know until after the fact. It’s the Browns’ job to make that the case.
47 Comments
Harvard has reformulated the Draft Chart…
http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/pages/the-harvard-trade-value-chart
http://www.arcticblubber.com/gallery/d/907-1/Capturehdc.JPG
I’m sure this has been already loaded into the Sashimetric Computalator 2.0
If our drafting incompetence continues as it has, fans won’t even have the draft to look forward to anymore. So then what becomes our “Super Bowl”? Day 1 of free-agent signing?
I guess I’ve just been beaten down, but I don’t look forward to the draft like I used to.
With the first overall pick… who are we playing poker against?
Day-1 of free-agent signing = Emancipation Day for Browns players drafted by the wrong regime.
Sashi will recruit some other GMs to play with…
Traders gonna trade.
I agree with you on the hyperbole that always surrounds the Browns and the “most important draft evar!”
However, I think this draft is as crucial to the rebuild under this regime as any will be. Tearing down is easy, and they acquired very many assets (draft picks and cap space). They now have to use those assets to add real talent to this team.
No one survives another 1 or 2 win season. I think they have to get into the 4-5 win range. They won’t do that by trading down and failing to sign people like Collins and Pryor.
When every draft since returning to the NFL has been abysmal, the current draft will always be the “most important evar” by default.
Ain’t it the truth though.
The Cleveland Browns must win NFL Draft poker
Also, games next year…
I feel like 52 card pickup is more our speed… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4307d11bde7f8a83ab2f2d39baf954900a969d2af7183d91d4a5b7bfd8864ea3.gif
After the introduction of the rookie salary restrictions in 2011 I would imagine greater value has shifted back to first round picks. (and particularly high first round) I wonder how much that pushes the look of the trend line back toward Jimmy Johnson’s old chart. I’m surprised there isn’t some sports analytics group a la fangraphs doing this kind of thing.
I’m sure someone is doing that, but their reformulated chart probably looks just like Jimmy’s, and well, you know the dweebs will never admit to that. đ
Baby steps http://www.lolzgif.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/baby-walking-flipfail.gif
I can’t stop watching this. A little sloppy on the dismount, but bonus for difficulty.
9.5
Devils advocate time: I generally agree with the whole “if you hit the picks you get for trading down, then its not a loss” theory. HOWEVA, heres the deal…when you’re bad at drafting, and draft history in general shows little more than a 50% success rate on the aggregate for all teams, it is also a fallacy to assume that “yep, we’re gonna hit on all these picks”.
The extra picks give you more wiggle room because you know youre not going to hit on them all so this gives you the chance to get more players. At the same time YOU KNOW YOURE NOT GOING TO HIT ON THEM ALL, so why not keep it simple and take the sure things when you can and not worry about futzing around later?
Again, I dont say one way is always better than the other, but in the Julio Jones case, trading down was DUM. So stupid it forgot the B. It was that bad. In other cases (2009) it worked out, but if Julio Jones, who was the #1 prospect in his HS graduating class, went to Alabama, was good enough for Nick Saban, and lived up to the 5 star hype even after there was plenty of time to nit pick him to death, is staring you in the face, you take him.
Sometimes, NFL GM’s remind me of the kid who gets a dollar from his Dad, then trades it for 2 quarters, because 2 is better than one, then trades the 2 quarters for 3 dimes, becayse three is better than two, then trades the three dimes for 4 nickels because 4 is better than three and then trades the four nickels for five pennies because five is better than four. The he goes home and is so proud to show his dad…and you know what happens in real life? He gets his arse beat up one sideline and down the other because 5 “just a guys” cant stack up against talented players. 1 Julio Jones > 5 Brian Robiskies
I wish the Browns were half as graceful when failing as this kid is
Winslow’s career was effectively ruined by Davis. The Browns were down 7 points with 9 seconds to go, and were doing an onsides. Butch ran out Winslow for the kick recovery, and had leg/ankle broken just above the ankle socket. This really ended his explosiveness and then gave us his motorcycle and staph ruined knees.
Deep down, I think they end up trading one of these top 4 picks for something better in 2018 draft.
This is exactly the point. They already have a pat hand. Play it. Trading out of these spots is trying to turn a full house into 4 of a kind.
Or into…
http://vignette3.wikia.nocookie.net/fullhouse/images/8/8b/Fuller_House_Titlecard_001.png/revision/latest?cb=20160205020251
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/425ab13badbf42029a66acc0f9842b88eef94d8a4a784f57cd828c791ddb21e5.jpg
Last years draft was a bust. Coleman showed about as well as a 6th rounder and Ogbah couldn’t play up to the level of that drug addict Armonty Bryant. All the rest are bench or going to get cut this year.
I strongly suggest trading out of the top spot.
Either (or both of) Chicago or SF has to take a QB, you would think. The Browns can trade down to 3 and still get Allen, who in my opinion is the best prospect.
They can trade to a few places and amass even more picks, to be used to trade back in to the first round and grab a Robinson, Mike Williams, and/or Lattimore type.
oooh, you must be from Russia. I’ll go 9.875. Extra points to account for the wind.
and then trades those 5 pennies for 6 dollar bills, because 6 is better than 5.
Decent chance Allen drops much further than that – big men who don’t test well at the combine tend to slip on draft day. Heck, even those that do (Donald for one but almost one every year).
I take Garrett though.
you know what I don’t like about Garrett?? Check his highlights. I have only watched about 40 plays, but I have yet to see him beat an O-lineman with an inside move. Could he be a 1-trick pony (Danny Shelton’s bull rush, anyone)?? Maybe someone else can tell me, but this smells like Mingo 3.0 to me.
i’ll break him down in more detail at some point, but he is much more than a 1-trick guy
Collins is re-signed
http://www.cleveland.com/browns/index.ssf/2017/01/jamie_collins_new_deal.html#incart_2box
Whoop, whoop! I’m not smart enough to know if he’s worth it, but I like it. Can’t win if you don’t play.
Dwight Freeney came into the league with zero moves. Maybe a spin.
And Mingo was never, in anybody’s eyes, a legitimate DE,
Dwight Freeney 2.0?
Garrett also has like thirty pounds on Mingo.
And that’s AFTER the NFL, ummm, “nutrition program”.
JaDaveon Clowney remains his best comp
Vitamin diet
Any chance Allen tests poorly enough to drop to #12.
I certainly wouldn’t…
Last year the HBT drafted all the benchwarmers.
This year they draft starters.
I’m looking at you Sashi…
Always a chance with big guys but his tape seems too good to allow it to happen.
They aren’t going to win many poker games with 7 WRs in a single draft and Cody Kessler in Round 3. I like Kessler, but they could’ve plucked a starting OL at that spot.
I get that WR take the longest to develop, maybe 3 seasons, so maybe that explains the analytics on last years draft. We need impact players, stars, or close to it. Signing Collins was a smart move. Hiring Williams was a great move. So let me ask you guys, do you trade the #12 for Cousins, if it is possible? Or do you look for the BPA or best S/CB available?
He’s already their best player on D.
The more I see this draft chart, the more I realize it’s absolutely inaccurate in accord with what teams are willing to trade in the early part of the draft. Going from pick 2 to pick 1 is worth a compensatory 5th round pick?
That chart is absolute nonsense the reflects none of the trade history. Harvard needs to update it. Or explain their methodology.
https://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/
sooooo we can trade our next 10 7th rounders for the #2 overall pick? Is anyone else calling San Fran or just me?
MONEYBALL!