NEO High School Football State Championship Recap: Hoban Repeats
December 5, 2016
Browns, Buckeyes in the playoff, and Tribe – WFNY Podcast No. 561
December 5, 2016
The Cleveland Indians need a hitter. Edwin Encarnacion is a hitter. Jeff Passan of Yahoo posted on Twitter that the Indians had “checked in” with Encarnacion. That was enough to set Indians Twitter on fire. Could the Indians sign Encarnacion? Should they try to sign Encarnacion? What about the qualifying offer and the first round draft pick that is attached to signing him? Could this just be Edwin Encarnacion’s agent trying to drive interest in his player? WFNY weighs in.
Sources: Cleveland has checked in on Edwin Encarnacion. Perfect fit as RH power in LH-heavy lineup. Question is: Would they spend the money?
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 5, 2016
Craig: Regardless of whether they should or not, I am skeptical there’s even much reality to this whole thing. I’m sure they “checked in on” Encarnacion because that’s free and easy to do. To think that the Indians are going to go from bargain shopping and scoring on Mike Napoli to paying for one of the top free agents who is entering his mid-30’s anywhere in the ballpark of $20 million per year seems crazy to even fathom. I will yield to others who can talk about whether or not they should in any real or hypothetical world.
Michael: Chris Antonetti and/or Mike Chernoff called Edwin Encarnacion’s agent. They might have talked about good restaurants in the Washington D.C. area for the MLB Winter Meetings or shared some Mark Shapiro gossip. And, sure, maybe they even mentioned they would be a willing safety net for EE should the high profile bidders not offer him what he desires. Something of a one-year contract worth $20 million would seem exorbitant for the Indians, but perhaps they could pull it off if it became feasible.
2017 is a bit of an odd year with both Carlos Santana (one year left) and Michael Brantley (one year + club option) living on short contracts. The Indians could look to capitalize on the World Series run with one somewhat splashy move. But, again, it would have to be a short contract as the Tribe is not in a place they can offer a 33-year-old hitter a long-term contract at a high dollar amount. That means the market would have had to cave in on EE and probably is not something that would even be a thought by his agent until February.
Sure, they “checked-in” and, hey, it might even be somewhat possible if EE is desperate and wants a one-year deal (probably with a guarantee to not use the QO on him) so that he can put himself back on the market. But, no Indians fan should consider it anything more than an extremely remote possibility at the moment.
Hattery: The problem for the Indians with a deal like 4/$80 million is that while it is fair market value or better based on cost per win, the Indians do not operate based on the concept of overall fair market value. Even if the Indians payroll rises close to 125, basically league average, they have to almost always gain surplus value from their investments, especially investments which will near 20% of their payroll commitment. Second, as Craig pointed out, this is another dude in his mid-30’s and if there was a lesson from Swisher/Bourn multi-year commitments on post-peak players it is simply a risk the Indians cannot take. I actually do not doubt the Indians could do a 2-$45 deal but the Indians cannot afford to miss on a 4/$80+ deal, handicapping a team which already has great position to contend for a few more years. For Encarnacion, this is his last chance to cash in which means targeting a 4+ year deal. The Indians cannot make a deal longer than 1-2 years with this sort of annual average value, thus this is merely a pipe dream unless the market shockingly dries up on the aging slugger.
The Indians/Encarnacion conversation just polite. He'd be way too expensive for that market, in all likelihood.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) December 5, 2016
Scott: I don’t necessarily want Edwin Encarnacion. Hell, I didn’t even consider him when the potential corner infield hole presented itself. My issue is with the framing of the tweet that the veteran is “too expensive” which makes it sound like the Indians are pinching pennies just weeks after being one hit away from winning the World Series.
I don’t believe there was any ill will in anything Buster Olney or Jeff Passan said, but at what point do we look at deals through the scope of the asset more so than the team willing to pay for past production?
The Indians front office is just a few winters away from heading to potential arbitration with guys like Francisco Lindor. I’m not sure I’m willing to risk losing a 26-year-old MVP-caliber shortstop because we got too greedy with a designated hitter-type years prior. We’ve already seen how that story ends.
Jim: There are two things wrong with a potential Encarnacion deal. 1. While it’s possible that Matt Holliday’s dream was to play in New York, I’m certain that the only thing keeping him out of the Indians Red and Blue was money. If the Indians weren’t really in on a one-year, $13 million dollar deal for Holliday, or even a one-year, $15 million dollar deal on Holliday, why would they consider a multi-year deal with Encarnacion? They don’t like multi-year deals with old players, regardless of production. Honestly, with Santana coming up on his final year, why would they spend all this money on Encarnacion, when Santana is likely a guy they’d rather keep, and 4 and 80 might be a doable deal.
Secondly, I don’t think for one second that the Indians have this kind of money in the coffers. I’m not saying that the Indians wouldn’t overspend on a guy if they think he can take them to the next level, but…yeah…I’m saying that the Indians aren’t going to overspend on a guy THAT much. Right now, the Indians are at $70 million. After arbitration and filling out the roster to 25-men, they’ll be in the $105 million realm. That’s likely either more than they want to spend, or right on. If they called Encarnacion, it probably went like this: “Edwin, how about a year at $15 million, and you lock us up for the World Series?…Edwin…Edwin…you still there?”
Michael: First, let the record state that I sort of hate Jim right now because of what he is making me write here. This is only a clarification of detail and I am absolutely not advocating any hatred towards Carlos Santana, whom I appreciate with all my baseball fan being.
That said: Edwin Encarnacion is a better hitter than Carlos Santana. From 2012-2016 EE is hitting .272/.367/.544 (146 OPS+) with 34-42 home runs (plus 24-34 doubles) in each of those years. He is an incredible hitter who has received MVP votes in four of the last five years for a reason.
Santana is three years younger while being a better baserunner and defender. But, despite him being a good hitter, he is no EE. Over the same timeframe, Santana has hit .248/.366/.440 (120 OPS+) while falling below 20 home runs twice (25-39 doubles though). The extra 100 points in SLG% there translates to that OPS+ score.
As much as I love Santana and his place among the all-time great Indians hitters, EE is simply better and the Indians would have to consider signing Encarnacion even if it meant trading Santana to clear payroll. There, I said it. Damn you Jim; I’m a Santana fan, but a Tribe fan first.
Dave: I THINK WE SHOULD LOOK AT LAST YEARS ALL-STAR TEAM AND PICK FROM THOSE GUYS. DO WHATEVER IT TAKES
Pat: We should go after Cliff Floyd instead. That guy absolutely raked for the Marlins, if memory serves me right, and he should be pretty cheap right now.
Josh: The Indians need a right-handed power bat, but I don’t think it’s worth having to pay a guy who is not only going to demand that much money, but also is somewhat past his prime. We all know what happened the Indians overpaid for a power bat who could only play 1B/DH—it didn’t end well. While having a guy like Edwin in the middle of the lineup would be awesome, there’s no way the club can afford him given his asking price and their payroll. I’d rather be able to lock up guys who are on the current roster than take a risk and sign EE to a long-term, big-money deal. Luckily, the Indians have a guy like Antonetti making the decisions and he has yet to prove to us that he will make a bad one, at least not yet. Unless Nap comes back though, the Indians still need to find that RH power bat to stick in the middle of the lineup.
16 Comments
Nate dawg:: not happening save your breathe
Isnt EE likely to have a shallower decline? And with there being far from a guarantee they re-sign Santana, you need two guys to fill these spots after this year. 4/80 is my max, but I’d do it.
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First of all, thanks for the reality check. Let’s say the Indians are his hedge. Even with the new minority investor, dropping 2/$40m on a 36 year old is probably exactly what Antonetti will never do again.
But I don’t get the virtual certainty from you guys that Encarcion is close to done. He’s not coming off of a down year. He would be much like aging Juan Gonzalez for the Tribe: scare the crap out of pitchers and let that rising tide lift all hitters around him for a year or two. Ok, let’s snap out of it. Antonetti is probably just positioning himself as the life boat in case somehow, some way, Boston doesn’t get tired of the game of chicken, reach into its deep pocket, chuckle and elbow the Tribe out of the way. Can’t see Antonetti signing him at these meetings, with the rich relations wandering the same halls.
I agree 4/80 is a nice number even if tough for a smaller market to commit that $$$ to a guy who would be 37yo on the backend of it (but also a contract that he already turned down).
It depends on what you consider a shallow decline. I have seen some suggest that his decline would mean going back to his pre-2012 numbers when he was just barely an above average MLB hitter. So, valuable, yes. But, when you get that type of production, you want some defense with it too.
I don’t particularly think that will happen with EE for a few years though. I would see his decline more going back towards what Carlos Santana is now (if he does decline).
I’m expecting as much defense as he’s provided the last few years – zero. But that bat alone was worth four wins. Yeah, he’s going to lose some, and yeah, the contract will be a liability at the end. I’m still in favor of it.
Based on what Hoynes has published, and the Sale trade, Indians may be in the best position to do a deal. Sox are now $7m over the tax cap. This is a team that spent $68M on the prospect they traded and $17M a year on Sandoval through 2019.
Wrote my comment before the trade. Still seems to me that the Red Sox have almost unlimited budgets. And in the unlikely event that the tribe does sign him, does that imply that Santana is gone by the trade deadline?
I don’t think one depends on the other. You can carry 2 1B if they both DH well. They are going to have to make a call on Santana regardless.
from what people were supposing, Boston just wants to stay under the $40m luxury line where things go crazy. they are still under the $20m line at this point.
for Santana, we’ll still get a 1st round pick for him if we extend the QO. we should be competing at the trade deadline with more reasons to keep him than deal him.
oh, I agree, their positions don’t have to overlap any more than Napoli’s did with Santana’s. I meant the salary overlay, EE years 2, etc. with Carlos’s substantial raise in ’18. Don’t see ownership doing that. But what do I know, I’m the guy sure that there was no way, no reason for Francona to come here.
looks like Sox get Moreland; does that signal less interest in EE? Maybe his market is drying up.
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EE must have overplayed his hand a bit on demands. Still plenty of places he could go (Colorado, Texas, Seattle, etc.), but it certainly is interesting that the Indians are still the most significant interest he has received (by reports).
Tweet today from Boston Globe writer Tony Massarrotti:
“Adding in arbitration, Red Sox payroll is currently north of $210 million. If Sox are serious about lux tax, they have about $20M to cut.”
But whatevs, I get that there are owners with serious money monitoring this and a whole lot of dominoes have to fall before the Tribe signing him is anything more than Winter Meeting Silly Season.
there are levels to the luxury tax system. they are still in the lowest level of it (barely) because the numbers I saw had them ~$208m. the next is from $210-230, then the crazy high penalties above that amount.