The Cubs strike back: World Series, Game 6
November 2, 2016Breaking down the Browns trade for Jamie Collins
November 2, 2016Editor’s Note: this was originally published on October 28 2016 but has been updated to serve as a preview for Game 7 of the World Series.
The World Series has reach its climax with the Indians facing Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks had a sparkling earned run average during the regular season of 2.13. The right hander outperformed his FIP and xFIP by over a run being propped up by an elite infield defense and a little bit of randomness. This is not to denigrate Hendricks who is an above average big league starter, but the 2016 regular season was in many ways an aberration.
Some randomness in the sample should not mute that Hendricks has quietly been an outstanding young pitcher for the Cubs. His success has also extended into the postseason as he had good starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Baserunners had relatively good success against Hendricks succeeding on 13 of 17 stolen base attempts. This advantage for the Indians can only truly exist if they do a better job getting on base. Arrieta was a perfect target, but the Indians offense failed to execute early and lost control.
Hendricks does an exquisite job inducing soft contact and avoiding hard contact. Coupled with an outstanding defense behind him it was an important component of his success.
WFNY’s projected Cleveland Indians Game 7 lineup with wRC+ against RHP:
- Santana 122 S
- Kipnis 123 L
- Lindor 119 S
- Napoli 115 R
- Ramirez 100 S
- Chisenhall 102 L
- Naquin 138 L
- Perez 84 R
- Tomlin R
Hendricks has a fairly classic arsenal, relying heavily on three offerings fastball, sinker, and changeup.
Since Hendricks leans on the four-seam fastball/sinker combo heavily, velocity and movement are important to his success. One thing I failed to note in regard to Arrieta was the Indians issues with top end fastball/sinker velocity. While the Indians handle these offerings well, top-end velocity has been a problem at times.
Fortunately for the Indians, Hendricks lacks top-end velocity.
Hendricks uses his sinker the most, though he has altered usage in 2016 to integrate the four-seam fastball more frequently. The sinker induces 56 percent ground balls and is a slightly above average offering based on wRC+ against.
Unlike Arrieta who can throw his sinker over the plate, Hendricks throw most off his sinkers off the plate on the outer half to left handed hitters.
Francisco Lindor, one of the Indians few warm bats does a nice job taking the sinker to the opposite field and barreling the ball on the outer third.
His partner in swagger, Jose Ramirez has similar contact skills.
Hendricks four-seam fastball has achieved nice swing and miss, and serves as a useful offering over the outer half – inside on the hands of left handed hitters.
Chisenhall and a fastball, what a delightful combination.
Hendricks best offering is his changeup, inducing swing and miss as well as a wRC+ against of 12! This is an outstanding offering and is almost always off the plate to left handed hitters.
Lindor again, this guy is just fantastic at hitting the baseball. Changeup low and away is a pitch that he consistently handles.
Game 3 adjustments:
Though Hendricks was a sinker dominant pitcher in the regular season, the Cubs have spiked his postseason fastball usage, particularly against the Indians. Certain Indians hitters like Tyler Naquin lose their platoon advantage when a high fastball is thrown near the plate. Except for the change in fastball-sinker usage the changeup and curveball were used as one would expect. The fastball remain an interesting strategic choice as the Indians have trouble with top end fastballs like that of Arrieta, Hendricks was mostly sitting around 88 MPH in Game 3.
Further, for a pitcher who survives on commanding an average arsenal, Hendricks did not exactly avoid the middle of the plate.
Watching Game 3, Hendricks appeared to groove a lot of first pitches. I am not usually one to suggest impatience but often it was the best pitch to hit. Hendricks is the most favorable matchup the Indians will face in Game 7, with Lester and Chapman waiting in the wings. The Indians have to punish the mistakes Hendricks makes.
Hendricks maximizes a relatively average arsenal, his command is essential to success. The Indians have to be patient enough to lay off a bevy of sinkers and changeups off the plate on the outside third and bottom of the zone. Hendricks has done a good job limiting walks in the National League where lineups are thinner but the Indians have a relatively disciplined group near the top. If the Indians can lay off the changeup down, and force Hendricks sinker/fastball over the plate, they can have success.
16 Comments
Any word on the Santana/Napoli dilemma? I know he’s been taking fly balls, but I’m really uncomfortable with Santana out in left today with Tomlin on the mound (maybe MAYBE with Kluber).
At most, Santana should only be out there for an inning, which might give Tito some flexibility to structure his batting order a little more favorably after a double switch. But in that case, either Napoli or Santana would still have to come out.
WRONG THREAD!
Another excellent analysis. I’m worried about Kendricks. Hoping that the extra winds help them focus on getting the ball off the ground more against this worm-burner. Elite IF defense doesn’t matter if you hit it over their heads.
Grounders are just long bunts.
Never bunt.
Watched this guy pitch the NLCS against the Dodgers, have honestly been dreading him.
It appears that Santana has this year’s Halloween costume picked out: he’s going as a LF.
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Game 7 Home Plate Umpire, Sam Holbrook
http://www.hardballtimes.com/mlb-umpires-2016-review-world-series-preview/
Expected+: 19th (out of 90)
Unexpected S:B+: 67th (out of 90)
https://twitter.com/MLBPlayerAnalys/status/793833051528634368
slightly smaller strike zone…more generous up&away
So, is this good, or bad?
Hendricks loathes going high in any zone. His propensity to nibble off the plate could hurt him with a smaller zone too.
Kluber to LHH loves to get them to chase the high fastball just outside the zone – that’s a win for him. To RHH though, he doesn’t go high outside.
Also, worth noting that West was calling the low strikes last night that everyone feared he would not call.
True about West calling low strikes, but he did miss at least two two-strike low pitches that were clearly within the strike box when we were up.
Since Maddon seems to have finally gotten his boys to stop swinging at breaking balls out of the zone, I don’t know if Kluber is going to get as many easy Ks as he has been.
Do not believe either starting pitcher is a likely candidate to melt down under the ultimate pressure; neither hyperventilate with men on base or bad calls. I think it will all come down to plate discipline and clean defense, neither of which is easy in a game 7.
And obviously, it’s imperative that Kluber’s velo and command is there despite consecutive starts on short rest. If he appears to be off early we might sit through crazy numbers of commercial breaks while Tito empties the bullpen.
Check the Game 6 recap – Cubs were swinging at a ton of breaking pitches out of the zone – they just weren’t missing them
Kluber has better stuff than Tomlin
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e3f49130f36c3b50bcfbd5a288a540706b3577f9e7f2ae1112dd0a0ac6c57e3.jpg
But… but…. nevermind.
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/793868595369418752
Yeah, seems like we’ll know early on how it’s going to play out for a while.
Will be trying to read the body language of Kluber/Callaway after the bullpen warmup.
Kluber was smiling after his Game 4 warmup, and in the postgame they talked about how good his stuff was.
It was the Game 1 warmup where everyone was remarking how crazy Kluber’s movement was and even Corey was smiling about it.