Just a Klubot—no fears, no emotion, no tears: Bode Plots
October 7, 2016Oh boy: Browns wearing all brown against the Patriots
October 7, 2016In a season in which Boston press brutalized David Price he remained one of the 15 best pitchers in baseball but with some discernible issues arising. Continuing a series that my cohort and I have been working on, this piece will analyze how the Indians offense matches up with Red Sox starter David Price in advance of Game 2 of the ALDS.
There were a couple of notable differences in 2016 that knocked David Price from elite to very good, the foremost being his spiking HR/FB rate. Of course, pitching in Fenway when not a heavy ground ball pitcher can have such an effect.1
The first challenge for the Indians is that, unlike his colleague Rick Porcello, Price mutes the running game. As an athletic lefty, runners only attempted to steal three times in 2016 and were caught twice. The Indians offense can impact the game in different ways on the bases be it first to third, being aggressive on passed balls but Price will shut down the Indians ability to steal their way into scoring position.
Read: The Red Sox versus Corey Kluber
The Indians are simply league average against LHP on the season but improved drastically when the deadline hit, an essential reason being the acquisition of Brandon Guyer.
Here is the WFNY’s forecasted lineup against Price with their run creation stats against lefties:
- Rajai Davis 112 wRC+ R
- Jason Kipnis 89 wRC+ L
- Francisco Lindor 116 wRC+ S
- Mike Napoli 142 wRC+ R
- Jose Ramirez 99 wRC+ S
- Carlos Santana 129 wRC+ S
- Brandon Guyer 144 wRC+ R
- Coco Crisp 91 wRC+ S
- Roberto Perez 91 wRC+ R2
David Price is giving up the highest hard hit percentage of his career by a sizable number, is there an underlying cause? How do his usage look?
The two highest usage pitches for Price are sinker and changeup. His changeup being tough on right handed hitters. Price will use Sinker-Changeup-4-Seamer roughly 70 percent of the time. With sinker-changeup being used roughly 55 percent of the time.
An interesting part of Price to watch will be his velocity which has tailed off in the second half and is the lowest of his career.
How does Price use his out pitch to left handers, the changeup? ((Price’s changeup has induced a 26.8% K% and a wRC+ of 64 this season.))
The Indians four best hitters against RHP are Napoli, Guyer, Santana and Lindor. Can they handle the changeup down and away?
Napoli struggles with it buried on the outside edge.
Guyer can certainly handle the offering, and will be a key figure in this afternoon’s outcome.
Santana has had some trouble with the low and away changeup, laying off and getting after the sinker is important for Santana and Napoli.
Lindor has also had significant trouble with the changeup down and away.
The middle of the order has had significant success against LHP but for them to be successful against David Price, they will need to spit on changeups on the lower outside quarter and off the plate.
This is a tall task with a pitch of this quality but Santana and Napoli have made a career of selectivity. Watch for the Indians to be aggressive in sinker-4-seam counts.
17 Comments
darnit. I just made a post over at the other article about Cleveland’s success against this guy. I think Guyer has to play tonight. I see the numbers on Napoli above, and I’m having trouble believing them. I see he has struck out 2 out of every 3 at bats against Price. I think you have to sit him tonight and use him in the pinch.
it is a small sample size and who starts in his place?
I think you start Napoli, but have a specific plan with him. have him sit on fastballs and be ready to rake them – if he strikes out, he strikes out. you aren’t getting a better chance at putting a quick run on the board from anyone who would replace him.
36 at bats is a small sample size to draw conclusions about a lot of things. But when I have a guy who has 20+ K’s in those 36 at bats, I can be pretty sure he’ll continue to miss the ball.
Why not play Santana at first base, then DH whoever isn’t playing OF from Guyer, Naquin. or Davis? Price gets antsy with runners on – I’d like to get some balls in play against him.
They could – there isn’t an ideal solution to be had, so we’re arguing about which less than ideal choice might succeed. I’ll take my chances Price misses and Napoli makes him pay.
That would be ideal. I’m still calling for Napoli to be 0-3 with 2Ks against Price
Naquin seems like worst possible guy to put up against Price.
I wonder if there was a RH bat, maybe in Columbus, who could have used a few reps down the stretch and would be much more useful than Michael Martinez in this type of game.
Yeah, I was just throwing names out there. But, man, Napoli’s numbers are really unproductive.
I’d hate to see him up with runners on 2nd and 3rd with 2 outs.
And a LH arm, too.
Unfortunately, Crockett has a bad back at the moment.
who ever do you mean?
(yeah, I agree…still puzzled though M-Mart in CF apparently is now a thing)
After the Aviles days, I’m no longer surprised. I have no idea how he thinks Martinez is better than Davis out there.
And just as I type this, Bastian reports that Francona says CF is Martinez’s best position. It’s like he knows I praised him, and has to balance things out again.
Well, if CLE was stealing signs, then it was likely M-Mart who learned them. So, maybe being on the 25-man and playing a few innings in CF was the bartered price 🙂
(Indians were not stealing signs – Red Sox are just whiny)
1-for-2 so far
Good call on Guyer. Whodathunk Chis would have even played?
Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family! !mj138d:
On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you don’t check it
!mj138d:
➽➽
➽➽;➽➽ http://GoogleFinancialJobsCash138MediaLogicGetPay$97Hour… ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★::::::!mj138d:….,……
before last night, Ian Desmond was the only man to steal a base off David Price in the last two seasons combined
now Mike Napoli has joined that list