It’s the day after a Tribe playoff win: While We’re Waiting
October 7, 2016The Indians versus David Price
October 7, 2016Can 2016 AL Cy Young Award candidate Corey Kluber1 pitch a Maddux in Game 2? The Cleveland Indians defeated the Boston Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS, 5-4, but manager Terry Francona had to utilize many pitches from his best bullpen arms to nail down the victory. Kluber does not have a complete game victory with under 100 pitches in 2016,2 but he has done it before and is capable of dominating any lineup.
Truthfully, the Indians do not need such an epic performance as Kluber going deep into the game could be enough to put the Red Sox on their heels for the return trip to Boston.
An important note coming out of the Tito’s bullpen usage in Game 1 was the third time through the lineup rule that had him pulling Trevor Bauer in the fifth inning. The numbers bear out that most pitchers struggle as the hitters catch onto their pitching arsenal and learn which pitches are working on that particular night. Let it be known, this rule does not apply to Corey Kluber. As the chess match between pitcher and batter goes deep into the game, Kluber is the one figuring things out.
1st time through order: .226/.281/.389 (84 sOPS+)
2nd time through order: .224/.292/.336 (69 sOPS+)
3rd time through order: .193/.245/.333 (46 sOPS+)
As the heat maps above demonstrate, left-handed batters have had more measured success against Kluber across the strike zone. While right-handed batters look to wait on inside pitches to find success, southpaws have been able to find some hits no matter the location.
Kluber, however, has handled both side batters relatively well. Righties are only hitting .206/.261/.354 (67 sOPS+) against him overall with lefties barely better at .226/.289/.359 (75 sOPS+).
As demonstrated in the Trevor Bauer pitching profile, the fastball of choice should depend on which batter’s box the hitter is standing in. Kluber is a heavy sinkerball pitcher to both side batters, but left-handed hitters find much more success against it than his fourseam fastball. Conversely, right-handed hitters struggle against the sinker, while battering that fourseamer.
Though the fastball is not where Kluber dominates. It might surprise some that the AL’s most consistent dominant starting pitcher over the last three seasons does not have an amazing fastball repetoire. While Kluber can use them, it is his slider, curveball, and cutter that make hitters look silly.
Kluber’s curve is ranked second in MLB in value per pitch according to Fangraph’s (R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays) and his cutter is also ranked second in MLB (Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs). His slider doesn’t register under their system, but the numbers in the above tables show just how useless any hitter is who attempts to swing at it.
Last Word
Corey Kluber finished the regular season eight in MLB in pitching fWAR (5.1), seventh in FIP (3.26), 14th in ERA (3.14), and ninth in K-BB% (19.8%) and BAA (.214) despite the fact he pitched in the American League where he was not given a gift out every single time through the order.
Kluber is and has been the ace of the Indians rotation. He has a tough battle with the Red Sox David Price in Game 2 (yes, another former Detroit Tiger), but if he pitches as he can, then the Red Sox will be the ones with scribes writing obituaries on their season.
17 Comments
Odds the announcers and twitter scribes do the following two things tonight?
1. As Kluber begins facing the Red Sox the third time through the lineup, many state how it is a shame that Tito burned his bullpen in Game 1 and they are not available to relieve Corey.
2. As Kluber shuts down the Red Sox on that third time through the lineup, many state how pitchers are capable of going through a third time and Tito was trigger-happy in Game 1 (w/o noting that Kluber is among the few w/o the third-time-through issue).
Basically, broad generalizations cannot be taken from a pitcher as special as Corey Kluber (whether he has a good or bad game).
and then it hit me: Francona was using his bullpen so heavily last night because he KNOWS Kluber is going deep tonight. He knows he’ll get 7+ from the Bot. He knows he won’t need to lean on the pen. I can see Kluber going 7+ and then the Tribe going to the pen. I just hope they don’t rue having 1 lefty.
If you hit .400 on the road at night on turf against lefties, you go with that stat.
Assuming he is healthy, Kluber will be unhittable today. He’ll have the shadow line between him and the batter for most of the game. Don’t think that plays a big part? Ask Adrian Beltre. Ask Giminez who botched a couple perfect pitches during a 4:10 game about a month ago. Sooooo much more difficult to track the ball.
My prediction is under 5.5 total runs and both pitchers make it through 7. As such, I am not the least bit worried Allen and/or Miller’s pitch count yesterday
Santana, Kipnis, and Chisenhall all hit over .300 against Price. Carlos owns him. This could be a night we see Guyer play a role. Rajai Davis should also see some at bats tonight.
The biggest issue I see are Napoli and Jose Ramirez, who has struck out in 55% of his at bats against Price.
Good call with the shadow. Price has never shown himself to be a big game pitcher. That fact, plus Kluber on the home field should give the Indians the decisive advantage. 4-1 Tribe.
Ehhh… as a starter sure. I recall a few huge shut-down appearances out of the pen for the Rays, I think his rookie year. But yes, a much longer track record as a starter. I hope it continues.
as Hatman notes, I hate that Rajai’s speed will be somewhat mitigated on the bases. stealing 2nd is no bueno against Price. even third is tough w/ his quick delivery.
Kluber used to need to have Gomes catch him because he was the only one accustomed to catching his crazy array of pitches (like Gimenez and Bauer earlier this year). Perez obv. has some experience now, but it is worth watching as those shadows are hellish on catchers too.
BASERUNNERS!!! START… YOUR… ENGINES!!!
after going to the bullpen early last night , Francona told Kluber he would be on a was on a tight 160 – 170 pitch limit … the Indians are set-up nicely. good luck !
but to your point on one of my comments about hellish shadows… Davis can take advantage of a couple dropped pitches that roll away or a catcher’s later-than-normal reaction to a ball in the dirt more than anyone on either bench.
true. it’ll be an interesting chess match as Price has a great move to first base too.
more than Rajai though, Lindor needs to watch himself. He gets caught leaning towards second too often — that won’t work tonight.
Much <3 for that filthy cutter.
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I was at the game and saw Bode’s tweet, oddly enough, just before Kluber faced the order 3rd time through. One of the best calls / analysis I’ve read on this game. Turned out to be spot on.
And whodathunk JRam and Chis would be such huge components of this team back in early 2015, as they were playing there way to a AAA demotion, ahem, assignment.
BTW, with yesterday’s win and another win by TOR, Tribe is guaranteed HFA to the end of the season.
Thank you sir
And, yes, the Indians could wrap up HFA, which would be nice. Would love to win Sunday to have everyone fully rested too.