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September 14, 2016Fan-friendly Clevland Indians schedule slated for 2017
September 14, 2016There are times when we must be grateful for the contributions of the present while not expecting similar contributions in the future. In the case of Mike Napoli, the Cleveland Indians’ bearded, bleacher-denting first baseman, now is such a time.
First, let’s be grateful. Napoli should be the first Cleveland Professional Baseball Player with 30 home runs, 100 runs batted in (RBI are not in any way predictive but retrospectively they help us tell the story of that season) since the MVP vote-getting version of Travis Hafner. Napoli has added depth and credibility to this team that was essential.
This is not to ignore his contributions which transcend sports, a collaboration with Nate Hipster Tito Crowe to turn “Party at Napoli’s” into a substantive charitable windfall.1 Indeed, Napoli has been one of the best free agent signings of the past 15 years for the Cleveland Professional Baseball Team in the echelon of Scott Kazmir, Kevin Millwood, and—dare I say—Rajai Davis.
The moments Napoli has provided us are unforgettable with a collection of late-inning heroics that strike at the very essence of this team. Napoli has been a boon. Yet, here I am, inducing fire and brimstone.
I do this because at times, as fans, we become prisoners of the moment. What we see in front of us is what we expect to continue no matter the potential externalities which might occur if we are wrong.
First, in regard to the narrative that Napoli’s broad shoulders are carrying the Indians offensive load. It simply is not true. Napoli is one of seven Indians regulars with a wRC+2 above 100 or league average. With Tyler Naquin, Carlos Santana, and Jose Ramirez all posting equal or better wRC+ as well as Jason Kipnis and Francisco Lindor being just one-to-four points behind. Napoli has been valuable, but more importantly, he has been a valuable part of a deep lineup—not its carrying force.
Time to look at where Napoli lies on the aging curve and the answer is the precipice.
We quickly see that Mike Napoli is on the side where exponential decline occurs. But if you do not like aging curves lets just talk about his career. This is just Nap’s fourth season with 500 or more plate appearances in an eleven year career. Further, he has now posted the most single-season plate appearances in his entire career. Unless Napoli is hurt before the end of the regular season, something that has been an issues for him in the past, it is likely that he will surpass his career high in plate appearances by nearly 100—as a 34-year old.
Then there is the physical degradation. Napoli’s base running has dragged from “lumbering” to “Hercule Poirot” speed, even if it did provide us with this gem back in May:
https://vine.co/v/i9epbgrYYuP
Even if you do not believe in defensive numbers, Napoli looks anything but limber at first base and it is not a coincidence that Carlos Santana has ramped up his time at first in the second half.
Napoli’s season is in large part being carried by his highest home run per flyball ratio since 2012 when he was hitting in Arlington, a stadium which is far more favorable to right handed hitters. Part of this may be because he is pulling the ball at the second highest rate of his career, but expecting this sort of power production again at Progressive in 2017 seems more like wishful thinking than rational expectation.
Then there are the plate discipline concerns.
Napoli | BB% | K% | O-Swing |
2016 | 11.6% | 30% | 25.3% |
Career | 12.4% | 26.9% | 23.3% |
Napoli is striking out on an unprecedented rate for his career at the big league level and at times appears to cheat heavy on fast balls to improve his power output. This, while leading to a few additional balls over the home run wall in left, has also resulted in him chasing more pitches outside the zone (O-Swing%).
In the player only portion we have someone on the wrong side of the aging curve, the most grueling season of his career, and worrisome plate discipline indicators. Of course, Napoli may stave off these adverse indicators but there certainly is a bevy of risk in extending his contract beyond 2016.
On the low end, Napoli will likely look for an extension of two years at $24 million. For a large market team that can absorb this sort of risk without sweating, this would be an incredibly fair deal. You can quibble with my estimation, so let us compromise, on the low end two years at $20 million total and on the high end two years at $30 million total.3.
In the grand scheme of things you may want to argue, well $20-$30 million over two years should not be a back-breaking risk for the Indians but unfortunately, it is. WFNY’s Michael Bode has of course written a phenomenal piece arguing that the Indians should carry a higher payroll and still profit. This is where things get tricky.
The Indians have escalating costs on starters Corey Kluber and Carrasco, Kipnis, Michael Brantley, Yan Gomes, and closer Cody Allen. This doesn’t even mention the added cost incorporated with the acquiring of Andrew Miller. Further, we have the Francisco Lindor question. Everyone wants to see him extended past his arbitration years.4. Perhaps one even wants to see an extension of Jose Ramirez.
A Napoli extension interacts (and interferes) with those other goals. Perhaps the Indians minority owner makes this a non-issue bringing needed liquidity, but a failed Napoli extension like the Hafner one before it comes with dangerous long term costs. Even more concerning is a Napoli collapse in tandem with a Gomes collapse which places the Indians in a predicament with significant dead money. Former Indians GM Mark Shapiro often referred to Hafner’s contract as an “albatross” due to the veteran’s lack of versatility in the field coupled with his decreasing ability to produce at the plate. Image that today, but with two players instead of just one.
At the end of the day, a fair market value is not fair for the Indians. To contend they need to constantly gain surplus value from contracts. With Napoli’s age, use and indicators, even as the Party rages on, I would not expect any surplus from an extension this winter.
- Over $120,000 and still counting. [↩]
- A metric which looks at runs created while controlling for park effects. [↩]
- I very well think the upper bound could be higher this offseason but I chose not to create an absurd estimate to aid in my argument [↩]
- Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations threaten to further cloud front office operation be it a Napoli or Lindor extension [↩]
9 Comments
I’m ok with a QO. Overpaying for year would be less than ideal, but not terrible, and a draft pick if he does look for multiple years would be a nice parting gift.
This echoes the heart v. head, intangible teammate v. aging process reality going on in my head, with the same conclusion.
A pitcher can sometimes compensate with smarts, or a new pitch. But we’ve see what happens to Napolis when they hit a certain age; we saw it this year with Uribe. The cheating early swing leads to stumbling misses at breaking balls, and high heat harmlessly fouled off if touched at all. I love this guy’s passion, the perfectly casted papa grizzly bear role. I’d love him on a one year at market price. But he’s pushing for the last big money of his life. And Antonetti and Chernoff have a white whale that must demand their full obsession: Lindor. The kid is an imminent MVP candidate and the team heart beat. Every year you have him will contribute more to being in playoff contention than any other player. In the Dolans’ economy of very finite resources, harpoon Lindor, sigh and throw the others back.
Great piece (and welcome aboard).
What would a QO be for him? North of 15M? I would take that if I were him
Estimated to be 16.7M next year. He’s not worth it, but to get a guy like Napoli, you’ll likely have to pay for more years, and guarantee more dollars in the long run. Unless you get lucky on the “old guy coming off a down year” free agent roulette wheel.
Agree with both of you. Our size market can’t afford to take these kind of chances. If we are going to take chances, it must always be with a pitcher who typically last longer and can survive on guile for one more year.
Also, I think at $16.7m he’s a tradeable asset. Maybe the Indians eat $5m of that salary to get back higher-level prospects back.
The same goes for why the Indians will assuredly hit on Santana’s team-option. At worst, they could trade him for his rate.
Yeah, I’m nodding along with these points and have pretty much just been fully enjoying the #PartyAtNapolis era with the full expectation that it is a one year occurence. Closing Time will hopefully be right after the Indians win the World Series.
The Indians have shown in the past that they’ll eat the rest of a guy’s salary that season to get a better prospect.
Hopefully the fans respond a bit to the Indians success and there’s reason for the team to take a bit more risk on the payroll for a year. The length of the contracts is usually the bigger problem for small market clubs.
Thanks for the welcome! I think the reality that this is Napoli’s last substantive contract places the Indians in an impossible position. I really wonder if Napoli could get a Billy Butler or Carlos Beltran deal from a few years ago or if I am inflating his potential free agent value.