Another Browns loss and iPhone 7’s Airbuds: While We’re Waiting
September 12, 2016Cleveland Browns Week 1 Winners and Losers
September 12, 2016Good Monday morning fans of Cleveland sports. Unlike your angry pitchfork and torch denizens over on the brown and orange side of this site, fans of the red, white, and blue are happy this morning after a series- and season-clinching victory over the Minnesota Twins (53-90) on Sunday.1 The Cleveland Indians’ (83-59) 10th victory over the Twins in 2016 leaves them in position to finish the season above .500 against each and every opponent in the AL Central division. Oh, and the seven-game lead such dominance has afforded them over their nearest competitor keeps pushing them closer to clinching their October ticket.2
Before we get to the topic of the morning, we have some business to discuss from this past weekend.
Weekend Recap
Friday September 9, 2016 : Indians 5 Twins 4
Danny Salazar (ND) 4.0 IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 4 SO, 2 HR
Tyler Duffey (L, 8-11) 5.0 IP, 5 R 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 6 SO, 1 HR
Tyler is no Danny as he continued to struggle for the Twins (6.13 ERA) despite only technically giving up two runs on his night. The Indians hit him hard and Duffey cannot blame his defense for the unearned runs as his own throwing error is what kept the four-run third inning alive. Mike Napoli (32 HR) partied in the fifth to seal up the final score as the Indians bullpen pitched five innings of one-hit shutout baseball (Hat-tip to Joe Colon, Zach McAllister, Dan Otero, Bryan Shaw, and Cody Allen).
The bigger news of the night though was Salazar left after the fourth inning with soreness in his right forearm that is directly attached to his problematic right elbow. He left for Cleveland for further testing from the series and will miss his next scheduled start (at the minimum).
Saturday September 10, 2016 : Indians 1 Twins 2
Mike Clevinger (ND) 4.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR
Hector Santiago (ND) 7.0 IP, 1 R, 1 ER 5 H, 4 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
Clevinger had one of his better starts on the year as the Indians continue stretching his arm back out for a role in the rotation. He was allowed 62 pitches on Saturday and it is expected he will be allowed to go to 80 in his next start. Not only did Clevinger limit the Twins, but he looked good in doing it as he controlled the game throughout (more below).
The Indians offense could not take advantage of Santiago despite him having some control issues. The best chance to blow the game open happened in the top of the first inning when the Tribe had bases loaded with just one out. Jose Ramirez and Brandon Guyer harmlessly flied out.
The Indians bullpen’s 12 consecutive shutout innings against the Twins this series finally came to a close when Colon missed up on a pitch to Joe Mauer in the twelfth inning, which he used to single in the games deciding run.
Sunday September 11, 2016 : Indians 7 Twins 1
Corey Kluber (W, 16-9) 7.0 IP, 1 R, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR
Jose Berríos (L, 2-6) 2.2 IP, 5 R, 3 ER, 5 H, 4 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR
Carlos Santana (31 HR) absolutely lit up the baseball on his monstrous three-run home run that gave Kluber more than he needed in support. The bottom of the Indians lineup kept putting the pressure on all day as Abe Almonte, Tyler Naquin, Roberto Perez, and Michael Martinez combined to go 9-for-16 with two walks, four runs and three RBIs. Things got so crazy Roberto Perez hit a triple.
Kluber, meanwhile, cruised along as he is beginning to separate himself from a crowded AL starting pitcher pack in the AL Cy Young Award race.
https://vine.co/v/5JQDI0aQDe2
Can 2016 Mike Clevinger be 1997 Jaret Wright for the Indians?
The legend of Jaret Wright notes the 1994 first-round pick jumped up to the Indians in the middle of the 1997 pennant race as a 21-year-old fireballer. He would go 8-33 to help seal up the AL Central division. In the postseason, Wright would help the Tribe obtain crucial victories over the New York Yankees (2), Baltimore Orioles (1), and Florida Marlins (1) before starting Game 7 of the World Series and leaving the Marlins with just one run on the board after 6 1/3 innings of work. The Indians front office was said to be so impressed with the youngster that they refused to part with him in a possible trade for Pedro Martinez that winter.
As with most legends, the story glosses over a few key components.4 Wright’s low K-rate (16%) and high BB-rate (9%) left him susceptible to allowing big innings, which happened several times during his string. His 4.38 ERA was better than league average (107 ERA+) but not by the amount people tend to recollect. And, his ERA did not shrink in the postseason as he ended up with a 4.72 ERA for the 1997 postseason.
Wright did just enough in his starts, which is exactly what the Indians needed from him. Though he averaged less than six innings per outing that postseason, it was enough to allow the Indians offense to win those games. He was a key piece for a Tribe rotation that struggled to find any starting pitching past Charles Nagy (4.28 ERA) and Orel Hershiser (4.47 ERA) as Bartolo Colon (5.65 ERA) was not quite ready to fill that role yet.
The 2016 Tribe surprisingly find themselves in a similar position. Kluber (3.05 ERA), Carlos Carrasco (3.15 ERA), and Trevor Bauer (3.86 ERA) lock down the front-end of the Indians rotation, but there is a need for a fourth starter in the MLB postseason. Salazar (3.87 ERA) was expected to fill that role but his arm might not allow him to do so. Josh Tomlin (4.85 ERA) could be the fourth starter except he had a 11.48 ERA in his last six starts. The 2015 surprise young starter, Cody Anderson, is now a bullpen staple.5
The Indians need Mike Clevinger. The good news is that he appears up to the task. After looking lost in his first three starts back in May (8.79 ERA over 14 1/3 IP), Clevinger has had a 3.00 ERA since. In starts in this period, he has given up four runs in 14 innings (2.52 ERA)—five runs in 15 2/3 innings counting the bullpen day start (2.87 ERA).6
https://vine.co/v/5JQD0IM30ag
Can Clevinger keep up this second half surge? Well, like Wright, he struggles with a high BB-rate (14%). But, unlike Wright, Clevinger supplements it with a high K-rate (24.3%). His FIP (3.90) is not outlandishly higher than his ERA (3.24). Given the Indians defense, he could continue to maintain this deficit.7
Just as importantly, Clevinger is finding when and where to use his pitching arsenal at the MLB level. His changeup (74 second-half pitches, .105/.105 against) has been a fantastic secondary pitch for him. He continues to utilize his slider though he can leave it hang at times leading to hard hits (108 pitches, .211/.421 against). And, he can always lean back on his old reliable 95 miles per hour fourseam fastball (272 pitches, .214/.321 against).
Last Word
The 2016 Cleveland Indians have found themselves in a less than ideal circumstance given that Danny Salazar was expected to be one of their mainstay starting pitchers but now has an iffy proposition for the postseason. As with Jose Ramirez stepping up when Michael Brantley could not come back from his shoulder injury, the pitching staff hopes that Mike Clevinger can do the same for Salazar.
If history is any guide, then Clevinger might do just that. Here’s to finding out in October.
- If, like many of us, you are fans of both teams, then I suggest attempting to understand the Browns are tanking this year, while the Indians are contending. It’ll make the next month and a half much more pleasant for you and those around you. [↩]
- Magic number currently stands at 14 for those tracking such things. [↩]
- The Indians would go 13-4 in his starts. [↩]
- Such as the 1997 Cleveland Indians only winning 86 games to make the postseason in a poor AL Central. [↩]
- Earlier for the Columbus Clippers and now for the Indians as he helped close out Sunday’s game with two solid innings of relief. [↩]
- Why the focus on ERA? Well, the earned runs are what actually happened. Regardless of what might happen in the future, getting those actual runs limited when the Tribe needs them to be limited is what matters. No one is going to care if a pitcher’s FIP is two runs higher than his ERA if that pitcher wins the clinching game of the World Series. [↩]
- Yes, there is a worry he has too high of a LD% at 26 percent and too low a soft% at 14 percent. [↩]
47 Comments
Perhaps he can be an Alan Embree or Albie Lopez for the good guys
I see the “dig” on Robebo above and as one of his haters I feel obligated to report… He is hitting .300 in his last 14 games (shocking right??). Might be time to lay off the guy.
It wasn’t a real dig. I am a Roberto Perez supporter (remember, I am tracking his post-23 start progress as that is when he took off in 2015). It is just that no matter how highly you think of Perez, he shouldn’t be legging out triples.
So, it was more of a dig on the Twins defense that was so horrifically bad all weekend long (well, all season long).
Hence why I put it in double quotes 😉
Yeah, just wanted to make it clear to anyone else who is reading that I support the “real Robo”
And, Clevinger, obviously 🙂
Neither pitcher ever started a game for the Indians in the postseason, so I’m hoping he can be more
I am finally allowing myself to breathe. And, dare I say?, believe.
Thanks for providing a bile-free forum this Stank Monday. I like the Clevinger-Wright comparison, a lot. Both with a dominating fastball, still too green to really know how to pitch but guys opponents haven’t seen enough of to get a bead on yet. If the Tribe offense dies in the playoffs I will always think of this as the “what if Brantley” year, but there are so many great September signs. In addition to Kluber in the zone and Perez warming up there’s:
– Napoli re-heating. He’s careerin,’ right now, with us. Best one-year contract in team history?
– Kip still taking the ball the other way, for months on end.
– Santana avoiding his typical black hole months.
– Lindor. Just Lindor. Screw the sophomore adjustment. Young star has so much talent emerging that it drowns the adjustments pitchers are trying to make. A year ago May he was hitting .230 in Columbus. Now he’s taking vicious major league sliders the other way. And he won’t stop smiling.
– JRam now, compared to a year ago.
– Andrew Miller making me like Cody Allen and Shaw more.
Two legit sets of playoffs in 6 months. Fun.
“but guys opponents haven’t seen enough of to get a bead on yet”
Maybe they haven’t gotten a bead on him yet, but they’ve hit him pretty well. Even if he can get the walks under control, I’m not sure what he does well enough yet to get excited about the rest of this season. His numbers all show him pretty middling at things like preventing contact, getting guys to swing at pitches outside the zone, and getting ahead in the count. He’s not putting himself in a good position to get outs far too often, and none of his pitches are consistently good enough yet to make up for that by fooling people/blowing them away. He’s going to have to make some improvements to be useful as a starter, and I don’t see how he could get that sorted out in the next couple weeks.
Luckily with the off days, we might be able to use him like we did in his last start, 4 IP and to the bullpen. There’s not much reason to let him (or Tomlin for that matter) face the third time through the order penalty.
Good stuff. If we can get Clevinger stretched out so he can go 80-90 pitches, he should be valuable as our 4th in the vent Salazar is limited or ineffective. My concern is on offense where we lose Almonte. He has been a significant hitter since his return. Having said that, I can hardly wait for post-season baseball where the tension just builds inning by inning.
I’d rather go Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer, taking advantage of days off and ride the bullpen. I definitely do not want Cleavinger starting after 10/3.
Even with the MLB postseason schedule, you better be sweeping teams if you want to fully avoid a fourth starter.
Welcome. I’ve been brashly stating the Indians will make the postseason since the All-Star break. So far, so good.
Well, I can’t say that I’m entirely there. Just starting. The remaining games with Detroit still give me pause – just not as much.
“In starts in this period, he has given up four runs in 14 innings (2.52 ERA)”
With a FIP over 5, and two starts against the Twins, and another against the Angels, not exactly threatening lineups.
Maybe. He’s been good enough in the second half to think he could skirt by 5-6 innings in a playoff game. Sure, he might give up a few runs, but his job will be to keep us in games.
What you are speaking about portends more to his long-term viability and there are adjustments he will have to make. But, for a couple weeks in October, he can be what we need. I have more faith in him than Tomlin right now.
All great points Harv. Thanks.
And yes, the consistency of Kipnis, Santana, and Lindor this year (along with emergence of J-Ram) has been special. Each of those guys would have hot-n-cold stretches but this year their colds have been warmer allowing for more even play throughout. Good times.
It’s looking fairly likely that the last four games against Detroit won’t even matter for the division.
Almonte
.283/.304/.43486 OPS+
91 wRC+
Crisp
.239/.299/.39489 OPS+
87 wRC+
I know Coco has struggled in his limited time with the Indians (discouraging) but replacing Abe’s meagerly productive offense was why we obtained him. Hope he gets it back together before we really need him.
They could for the first overall seed in the entire MLB playoffs though (haha Cubs, KC hitters gave us home field).
And yes, this is a snarky way of me supporting your comment.
Well, we have only beaten them 11 out of 12 times
I expect we’ll come close to a split the rest of the way (either win 3of7 or 4of7)
Sure. At this point, though, I don’t really care about the past. I’m only looking forward. Those games don’t count toward the remaining innings.
Absolutely have more faith than Tomlin, but I disagree on skirting by and keeping us in games. That’s fine for the regular season where you need length from your starters. But in the playoffs, there’s few tomorrows to be worried about, and you need to maximize your run prevention in the moment.
Your relievers are almost always better at run prevention on a per-inning basis than your fifth starter. Even Manship and McAllister have looked to be better bets at getting three outs than Clevinger, and that’s before we account for any wear and tear on the latter’s arm, and the penalty of letting the same batters see him multiple times in a game.
Minnesota is wretched pitching and defensively, but their offense is top-notch.
5.3 runs/game in the same stretch as Clevinger there and that is after Kluber and Clevinger shut them down this weekend (OK, only a couple tenths higher before)
———————
The issue with Clevinger’s recent success is it is an impossibly small sample size. As noted, even if it is somewhat of a mirage, then that is OK. We just need him to get us through as Wright did.
Detroit’s schedule is loaded with Twins and Indians. They have to be licking their chops, even 7 games back. We’re loaded with Sox and Tigers (probably a comparative wash – so favorable to us in the end). The Royals could be game-changers, if we slip and the Tigers roll, as they have series with both the Indians and Tigers. So it’s root, root, root for the Indians, Twins, and Royals (except when they play us).
Oh absolutely, and even if they didn’t matter for that either, I’d still like to see us run up the score on them.
I know this is Cleveland and all, even if we have already got that championship, but that 98% odds number is not inaccurate.
It will depend on how a series goes too. The worry with the heavy-bullpen strategy is taxing arms that aren’t as built up for that taxing (same can be said of Clevinger, yes).
Hey, let’s hope that the Indians win with blowouts from the starters or sweep a couple rounds. Then, the fourth starter will matter far less.
I don’t disagree with any of this. But I think he’s the best alternative to go maybe twice through a line-up, once during a series. Or maybe the long guy to come in if a starter is getting slapped around. This time of year if you have to go with a young guy I like the power arm with electric stuff, rather than the guy with guile which worked at AAA. Ol’ Dennis Martinez isn’t walking through that door …
I was so completely terrified of a late-season trip to Kauffman Stadium back in March when I was parsing the schedule. Now? We should have the division locked up by then. Whew.
Yes, no W-L scenario the rest of the way is impossible. But they have to play like a 105 win team the rest of the way, and we have to play like a 50 win team. Both chances are unlikely on their own, and together, very slim.
Jaret Wright is only 41 years old and Bartolo Colon is still pitching…
drat, MLB needs the player to have been in the organization by August 31st (not on the 40-man though as some erroneously state)
Agree with every last bit of this. Just make sure that it’s twice through a lineup and once a series only. Don’t press your luck. We have better pitchers to use.
Ha, Wright’s wing was already 41 fifteen years ago. Colon – just don’t think I can watch that old guy’s blubbery sweat in HD. Aesthetics count. Did my time with Bob Wickman.
yeah, Coco looks old but maybe the playoff adrenaline will get good to him. It happens.
Games five in both the LCS and WS are the only times a guy would possibly pitch three days in a row. They should be able to handle this.
Bartolo Colon GIFs are a treasure to all of mankind
http://mlb.mlb.com/images/8/7/8/171427878/040916_colon_catch_med_qgz1qeut.gif
They are 11th in the AL in wRC+. His other two opponents as a starter were 7th and 8th. Not entirely pitiful, but not any of those ALE lineups we are going to see in round 1.
You mean Crisp as Tony Fernandez should be my next post?
I’m talking 2nd half though – 7th in AL in wRC+ (101) and much closer to 3rd (Rays, 105) than 10th (Blue Jays, 95)
not to mention that I’ve played married man man sports with like a dozen of those guys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Me6QkAFErw
Probably the best way to evaluate is to look at RoS projections. Fangraphs projects the Twins to be 9th in the AL in RS/G the rest of the way.
Eh, I don’t know. Such small sample sizes lead those to be flawed results especially given that the Twins could be seeing real growth from some of their youngsters (that projections purposefully dampen until proven over longer stretches).
I think the Twins are a decent-to-good offensive team and I think that is reasonable (and wretched everywhere else). So, it’s not like Clevinger limited a bottom-feeder offensive club on Saturday. On the other hand, it was just ONE start.
Sigh, still three weeks until we get to see MLB postseason play. Gonna be brutal waiting.
there ya go
To me, the small sample size is the two months of data. The projections take into account the player’s entire body of work. Two months should be dampened.
I agree. I just have seen with players that have made true adjustments to MLB pitching and been able to predict well before the models by parsing the data. Obviously, no method is perfect.
Byron Buxton has just been so, so good (as has Dozier).
https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/775334343795351552
https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/774609804748873729
And, Sano looks to be real too.
https://twitter.com/AaronGleeman/status/774971785678848009
Those are only snippets, just using as Gleeman is great for those and I don’t want to spend too much time dissecting the woeful Twins 🙂
Somebody needs to photoshop that so he’s running through a field of wildflowers to catch that ball.
So, with Salazar’s official announcement (see the side: he’s out 3-4 weeks), this one becomes a bit more pressing. Here we go Clevinger, here we go.