Emmanuel Ogbah and Joe Schobert listed as starting LBs for Browns
September 6, 2016J.T. Barrett named B1G Offensive Player of the Week
September 6, 2016Since his debut alongside Orlando Cabrera and Cord Phelps in 2011, Lonnie Chisenhall has been a consistent presence in the Cleveland Indians’ lineup. The 27 year-old is enjoying a breakout season only two years removed from his last breakout season, with a wRC+ of 105, a permanent home in right field, and a bare-chested walk-off this past weekend.
While the word “consistency” and “Lonnie Chisenhall” go together about as well as oil and water or Jose Ramirez and batting helmets, his career production has been remarkably even. In his six years in the big leagues, Lonnie has averaged 93 games and 1.3 bWAR per year. Since becoming more of a regular in 2014 (or as much of a regular as you can call a platoon), those numbers jump to 118 games and 1.7 bWAR. Other than his 2012 campaign that only included 43 games, Lonnie’s overall production has provided few peaks and valleys.
Year | WAR |
2011 | 1.1 |
2012 | 0.2 |
2013 | 1.3 |
2014 | 1.4 |
2015 | 2.3 |
2016 | 1.6 |
His career wRC+? 99. Almost exactly average.
Yet to Tribe fans subjected to the swings of Lonnie’s career (some of which are belted, some of which are misses), his version of average feels like it lives on the extremes.
Case in point: Lonnie’s completely average wRC+ has come from a series of uneven seasons.
Year | wRC+ |
2011 | 91 |
2012 | 105 |
2013 | 83 |
2014 | 117 |
2015 | 78 |
2016 | 109 |
While Ryan Raburn and his odd-year heroics are gone, his ghost appears to still haunt even years for Chisenhall. But even the source of those productive years has varied.
Lonnie rode a monster (Lonster?) first-half in 2014, slashing .332/.396/.516 before limping through the second half with a .519 OPS. This breakout 2014 campaign saw a spike in his OBP to .343 after posting a career average of .284 to that point. As his walk rate spiked, his ISO dropped; from .167 in the three years prior to .146 in 2014. Meanwhile, his defense at third base cratered, with -14 defensive runs saved at third base.
Lonnie’s disastrous 2015 offensive season could be partially blamed on the baseball gods smiting him with a .231 BABIP, but his nearly 28 percent soft-contact rate bought him no favors. His ISO dropped further, to a career-low .126. Of course, he saved a lost season by asking to move to right field, where he posted 11 defensive runs saved in only 51 games. Lonnie took the “speedy outfielder” thing to heart, posting 5 BsR (base running runs above average) after being worth -0.9 to that point in his career.
With a full-time gig in right field in 2016, Lonnie’s defense has come back to earth, with only four defensive runs saved in 98 games. His base running has still been an asset, but has also regressed some from the 5 BsR in 2015 to 2.2 in a similar number of games in 2016. Meanwhile, Lonnie’s bat has found a groove. His ISO jumped to .162; similar to that of his early career. His strikeout rate is at a career low, partially from a spike in the number of swings at pitches in and out of the zone (swinging at 57.5 percent of pitches compared to a previous career high of 53.9 percent.) While his overall contact rate has not increased as he swings at more pitches, he’s also making the hardest contact of his career.
This 2016 has probably been the most encouraging to date. While it would be more fun to expect nine-RBI games like the Lonzilla campaign of 2014, settling in as an above-average defender, base runner, and average platoon bat is certainly still valuable. Those skills in the field and the base paths should also help smooth out the variances in his offensive skills. And those offensive skills seems to be settling into a place that will see less dips.
The interesting question for the front-office moving forward will be to quantify Lonnie’s value in what appears to be a suddenly cluttered outfield. Chisenhall has already entered arbitration and made $2.75 million in 2016. Players like Bradley Zimmer, Yandy Diaz, and even Greg Allen will be knocking on the door soon. Tyler Naquin’s impressive rookie campaign could also complicate things, as he is another left-handed hitting platoon outfielder—one that looks like he may be more of a right fielder than center fielder long-term.
But even with these questions and a history of uneven play, Lonnie Chisenhall seems to have answered many of the questions about his value. He’s an asset, one that can be penciled into right field for 2017 or used to bring in talent elsewhere. And even with six seasons of production at the Major League level, that wasn’t always evident.
5 Comments
Doot-dooo
First, welcome to Jeff Nomina (aka the famous @sportsnom) to the WFNY pages. Absolutely love that he’ll be writing for us on the Indians here in what we hope will be a special season.
Second, I find it absolutely hilarious that he writes positive things about Lonnie Chisenhall the same day I am uncharacteristically critical of him (for those that do not know, we have had some tiffs – all light-hearted and in fun, of course – on the relative values of Chisenhall versus Abraham Almonte).
Chizz’s plate discipline was heinous in his early years in MLB. One, he probably should of spent more time in the minors bought his draft position and the awful team was a storm that caused his promotion. He wa also dependent on hitting misplaced fastballs early in his career, and seemingly had no plan for how a pitcher was picking him apart. He was like the lefty Cory Snyder.
But of late I see a number of good at bats, lots of fouled off pitches. I don’t think he’s more than a platoon guy but his defense seems well enough.
*humming*