The Cleveland Browns defy analysis: While We’re Waiting
September 23, 2016Dolphins (Might) Smile – Browns – Dolphins Preview
September 23, 2016J.R. Smith might still be waiting on his new contract, but he got his moneyβs worth playing spectator in the dugout suites Thursday night, as the Indians completed yet another series sweep with a delightfully drama-free 5-2 win over the former champs. Thatβs right, with a 5.5-game deficit in the Wild Card race and just nine games to go, I am prepared to go full Hoynes and declare the Kansas City Royalsβ playoff hopes officially DOA.
Shock! Controversy! Several follow-up articles and live chats to follow! Tweets! More tweets!
Meanwhile, despite reaching their high-water mark on the season at 89-63, Cleveland is neither extending its division lead on Detroit nor gaining much ground on its rivals for home field advantage. Detroit took a twin bill from the Twins on Thursday, suddenly catapulting themselves into the second Wild Card spot after the Orioles lost again to the Red Sox. Those Sox, meanwhile, are looking terrifying of late (eight straight wins), and remain just a half game behind the Tribe, while the Texas Rangers remain merely a half game up.
Itβs basically a multi-car pile-up right now and, thus, pretty frustrating for those of us who want to get our postseason projections and match-up ducks in a row. Right now, there are literally EIGHT teams the Indians could potentially face in the ALDS. You donβt know which one it will be, I donβt know which one it will be, and Paul Rudd is still holding out hope itβs Kansas City.
Get Carter
Anytime I take a moment to marvel at the Iron Man of Under-Appreciation, Carlos Santana, I feel like I am trespassing on Michael Bodeβs personal property. He has done a better job than probably anybody in the contiguous United States at defending and celebrating the Indians’ unfairly maligned 1B/DH over the past few years. Heβs also been chomping at the bit to hold a mini-parade for the latest of Santanaβs accomplishments, as the Axeman moved up another spot in the all-time Indians record book last night. Sorry, Bode, stealing your thunder.
Take it away, Hammy.
https://vine.co/v/5vhIHqMt3j3
With his three-run homer off Dillon Gee in the sixth inning (the blast that gave Cleveland the lead and essentially sealed the contest), Carlos not only tied Mike Napoli for the team lead with a career-high 34 dingers, he also slid in next to former Tribe great Joe Carter at the No. 12 spot in that category in club history.
In case you need a refresher on the generally static all-time Indians homerun list:
1. Thome: 337
2. Belle: 242
3. Ramirez: 236
4. Averill: 226
5. Trosky: 216
6. Doby: 215
7. Thornton: 214
8. Hafner: 200
9. Rosen: 192
10. Colavito: 190
11. Keltner: 163
12. Carter / Santana: 151
Would you have guessed Travis Hafner hit more homers as an Indian than Rocky Colavito? Not me. In any case, 151 home runs is a substantial bushel. Even if Carlos had played his whole career for the mighty New York Yankees, heβd now be firmly in their all-time Top 30 in the category.
For some reason, thereβs something extra special about him catching Joe Carter, too. If youβre a child of the 1980s like myself, and became a seasoned fan towards the end of that decade, then Joe Carter was essentially your introduction to what a dynamic, power-hitting clean-up man looked like. He was a robotic run producer who could also hit for average, throw a bit, and swipe bases. Dude was a 30/30 man in 1987 and very nearly pulled the feat off the year before (29/29 in 1986) and the year after (27/27 in 1988). Speed, by comparison, is not Carlos Santanaβs game. But, of course, Iβm going to compare Carlos and Joe right now on some other fronts.
One surprising thing both guys have in common is that neither one made an All-Star team while an Indian. But whereas Joe Carter was generally appreciated as an “All-Star” by the hometown fans, Santanaβfor pretty clearly no good reason whatsoeverβhas still never been embraced by the mainstream Tribe faithful.
Some people may have forgotten this and/or donβt want to think about it right now, but Santana could become a free agent this winter. The Indians have a $12 million option on him which would seem like a no-brainer in todayβs market, but nothing is a sure thing. As for Joltinβ Joe Carter, he made $3 million TOTAL in his six years in Cleveland.
The Scuffles
Santanaβs recent hot streak, which has included six hits in the last two days, has helped balance out the trouble spots in the middle of the line-up of late. Francisco Lindor and Mike Napoliβtwo guys who havenβt really heard a peep of criticism from anybody in 2016βare limping down the stretch run a bit, while Santana and Jose Ramirez are still the working class heroes.
Since September 10:
Lindor: .073 AVG, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 10 K, 7 BB
Napoli: .140 AVG, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 20 K, 8 BB
Santana: .370 AVG, 4 HR, 12 RBI, 5 K, 7 BB
Ramirez: .348 AVG, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 2 K, 4 BB
While logic would dictate that Lindor and Napoli will be first in line to get some extended rest when the Indians finally clinch the division, itβs going to be hard for Tito Francona to shift gears into Jesus Aguilar mode and have a nice, fun final week of September. As undermanned as they are, Cleveland desperately could use home field advantage in the playoffs, particularly to avoid having to open up a series in Fenway Park, for example. Rest is importantβmaybe the mental variety above all elseβbut it might be more of a sprinkling to go around rather than a purging of starters.
If anybody needs some tips on how to rest up and chill like a champion, the Tribe fan pictured below could prove helpful.
Ubiquitous Rotation Update
Mike Clevinger toughed out five good innings last night, allowing just two runs on an Alcides Escobar homer. His control was. . . Clevingeresque. Which is to say, not good. And therein lies the reason I continue to remain firmly in the Josh Tomlin camp; so much so that, in the right situation, I’d rather have Tomlin throwing a Game 2 than Trevor Bauer. Josh Tomlin in Fenway? Maybe not. But at home, in a big game, the Little Cowboy has the make-up, confidence, and strike-throwing ability to become what Paul Byrd was in the postseason nine years ago.
It’s worth noting that Byrd gave up three homers in his two playoff starts for the Indians that year, but he also got two wins, throwing 10 innings, walking just two, and giving up four total runs. I’d feel a similar irrational confidence with Tomlin on the bump in October, whereas Bauer and Clevinger’s control problems have visions of merry-go-rounds dancing in my worried mind.
MAGIC NUMBER: 4
47 Comments
Carlos is the worst baseball player in the history of the game. He will be an albatross around the neck of the team come October.
Fire Ty Van Burkleo.
#NotSuperstitious-JustALittlestitious.
Do we rest or go for the #1 seed in playoffs? We rest and we may end up being the 3rd seed with 3 of 5 games in Boston. I think they need to keep foot on gas and see if they can get to top seed or stay in second while eliminating Tigers from playoffs.
I hate the Royals. That felt good…
https://media.giphy.com/media/GzJkODHGMwiMo/giphy.gif
Sorry, Bode, stealing your thunder.
Haha. Yes Clayman, steal away. Shout it from the rooftops. Carlos Santana of the Dominican Republic has caught Joe Carter in career Tribe home runs.
I would make one slight change to the rather excellent overall analysis though. Take a look at the ABs rather than games played between these two players (ranked #41 and #42 in franchise history – close due to all those free passes Santana racks up):
Carlos Santana 3390
Joe Carter 3256
And, here is the doubles ranking for Santana after this big series…#25 overall there too now.
25.Carlos Santana 195
26.Sandy Alomar 194
Jeff Heath
28.Andre Thornton 193
29.Michael Brantley192
Brook Jacoby
31.Victor Martinez 191
32.Carlos Baerga 190
Larry Doby
34.Julio Franco 189
Not the first time we have swept them this year either. It’s been a good year π
A little bit of both I’d wager. Gun for the No. 1 seed but if Napoli and Lindor are showing they need an off-day mentally, then you give it to them to recharge.
IF we get #1, here are opponents:
Tor
This season we are 4-3 (2-1 at home)
Balt
This season we are 1-5 (1-2 at home)
Houston
This season we are 3-4 (2-2 at home)
#2/3 seed
Bos
This season we are 2-4 (1-2 at home)
Tex
This season we are 2-5 (1-2 at home)
BUT playoff baseball is different.
Yeah, throw it all away and re-analyze based on who would play in October. The Rangers bullpen, for instance, has been maligned but they have still gotten quality out of their Top 3 guys, which is mostly what they’ll need.
Boston is the best team on paper (largely due to health), but we’ll see. I would LOVE a series against Toronto too – that would be the most fun I think.
I think TEX has tiebreaker over BOS for 1 seed too. I believe it is head to head (3-3) followed by Intra Div. If this means BOS vs East, and TEX vs West, Tex has better intra div record. If it means BOS vs West and Tex vs East, Boston has better intra div record.
But, but, but…where’s the lineup card with funny names???
I finally accepted that he’s not Vic the Stick, he’s Carlos, and officially joined the love fest about a year ago. He just really ticked me off for a while there trying to pull everything for a season or two.
What I love about him passing Carter is the stark optics of old school v. analytics. Carter epitomized how a ballplayer is supposed to look and move like; he had the talent to excel playing both ways and was capable of anything. Except he didn’t always do everything, just had the potential to be a MVP at any moment. By contrast, Carlos often moves like a guy limping into the truck stop after 9 straight hours in his big rig. I’ve come around to the dude’s metronomic consistency. And when he throws that beefy body around, like his panting (albeit unsuccessful) dash around third last night while trying to score on the Ramirez double, that’s the dash of Cleveland grit I need.
behind the J.R. Smith photograph
No funny lineup card and no Clayman drawings make JNeids something something…
Surprising that Brantley is already so high on the list, must be crowded in the 20s.
Shout out to Julioooooooo!
So many big names on that doubles list.
Peralta is at #24 (he’s next!)
19-21 Graney, Grady, Asdrubal
The big one for Santana though is he has a chance to surpass Albert Belle by the end of next season (assuming his option is picked up).
Belle is #17 with 223 doubles
Hey i put Carlos’s head on Cory Snyder’s body for you! What more do you want? Once I came up with “Carphone Antenna” as a nickname, I knew I had reached the end of the funny box score era.
First “Texts from Ray,” now this?!? They say deaths come in threes…DEAR GOD SOMEONE CHECK ON “RANDOM CALVIN AND HOBBES STRIP OF THE DAY!!!”
It’s in the grit.
That static homerun list will never cease to amaze me. Top 3 guys played on the same team (essentially). Wow.
(With an asterisk, if you know what I mean.)
There’s a what in your grits?
Tiger meat.
He’s a grinder. Grinder of grits.
But is he clutch??!?
Can we also take a moment and appreciate how ridiculous Jose Ramirez has been?
https://dn3pm25xmtlyu.cloudfront.net/photos/large/589174253.jpg?1338337718&Expires=1474732406&Signature=vJI3Umxsu5gmG8GqxUCtopBujVQEMXLBEOv0aSzwmo~oGPpBur0wWrLjILTCmh3jFIoC4rQbJyof2yrlIsFYzBVxeGf4YLdf1MW47BdCUDo-1r6xCwivniKS21ARrtRpCxUF1lbU-Uv8ravvgx75edbcvzClGlXZ9wioFdoBXcg_&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIYVGSUJFNRFZBBTA
SMASH
The Angry Hamster has been incredible. Favorite player on this team, and there are plenty to choose from.
Dedicated to the Lando muppets……
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ul7X5js1vE
J-Ram is two doubles shy of Brantley’s 45 from last season, which led the league.
Love all Motown, little Stevie is great!
That is Hattery’s topic/player of choice π
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2016/09/jose-ramirez-all-star-third-baseman/
Taking a quick break to applaud you for another year of excellent analysis and breakdowns.
Victor Martinez as an Indian – 120 OPS+, Santana – 121 OPS+.
The biggest difference between Santana and Carter is almost always the most important for a hitter – OBP. Joe Carter had one season in his career where he put up an OBP above league average, and was 30 points below it for his career. Santana has never had a season with a below average OBP, and is 40 points above league average for his career. Not making an out is of primary importance for a hitter, and Santana was a helluva lot better than Carter at that.
We need to finish a game ahead of the Rangers, so it’s going to be difficult, but I think we should. Getting a WC team with their ace only going once to Kluber’s twice is exactly what we need with the current status of the rotation. Plus, Boston is probably the best team in the AL, and any chance to miss them or at least get Salazar a better chance to get back in the rotation before seeing them would be big.
We can’t assume the WC team’s ace will start the WC playoff b/c they might not be able to arrange rotations. Same reason why Salazar started for us a few years ago.
You could still get the WC winners’s ACE in game one, or their worst short-series starter in game 1.
People also recall Joe Carter fondly b/c he validated sending off Sutcliffe, and we got Sandy and Baerga for him (AND CHRIS JAMES!)
In 2013, the Indians used an off day on Sept 23 to flip Jimenez and Salazar in the rotation (as well as Kazmir and Kluber), clearly arranging the rotation so that Salazar would start the WC game.
Verlander is in line to pitch the last game of the regular season, so they would need to go down to the last day of the season to have him miss the WC game. The Orioles and Jays are using six men in the rotation, which could cause some changes, but the former have Gausman lined up for a WC game, and the later have Sanchez lined up, but Happ could easily be pushed into that date.
WFNY thanks you – great staff built up here. Used to be Clayman and I couldn’t get to all the topics we wanted to write about. Now, we need to get to them before someone else does π
Yeah, I don’t think there is much of an argument that Santana isn’t a better hitter than Carter at this point. The best one for V-Mart is to exclude his first two seasons when he struggled (122 OPS+) and even then it is a tough one as Santana’s cumulative value takes hold with similar efficiency.
And, if we couldn’t cheer the Indians in a World Series (seemed laughable in 1993 they would ever get to one), then we could cheer good old Joe winning one
http://i.makeagif.com/media/9-27-2013/O_7kjT.gif
Alas there’s no way for both the Indians and Tigers to win during their upcoming four game series. The Goldilocks scenario is to have home field advantage against Detroit in the first round. Unless somebody else Texas chokes we’ll have to keep the foot on the gas to get the top seed and we’ll either fail to do it or we’ll eliminate the Tigers in the process. It does look like Toronto has a tough schedule to finish up, though, including a series against Baltimore which could hurt either or both of them.
Walks != Hits.
Hits >> Walks.
OPS is trash!!
Use mOPS (modified OPS… by me):
mOBP (used only for mOPS) = (H + 0.8*BB + 0.8*HBP) / (AB + BB + HBP + SF)
+
SLG = (1B + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR) / AB
Ooo what is this wOBA thing? I like this stat.
CANCEL THE mOPS!!
wOBA = (0.690ΓuBB + 0.722ΓHBP + 0.888Γ1B + 1.271Γ2B + 1.616Γ3B +
2.101ΓHR) / (AB + BB β IBB + SF + HBP)
Yes, wOBA is a quite useful statistic though I have no idea why a BB is worth less than a HBP.
Given the AL East feasting on themselves, it is possible but not likely.
Still, I want Toronto in the ALDS. Would be fun.
Because those numbers are ties to historical run scoring rates. Teams have scored just a slight bit more after a hbp than a walk in similar situations.
My guess as to whats doing the heavy lifting is that some unintentional walks are clearly pitching around a good hitter. A HBP is never a tactic used by defenses to prevent runs, but sometimes a walk is, and sometimes it actually works.
Also worth noting that Santana’s wOBA is a 124 RC+ once we adjust for the park and league run enviroments to Victor’s 119. Victor played in an era where there was a lot more offense.
Google is paying 97$ per hour! Work for few hours and have longer with friends & family! !mj131d:
On tuesday I got a great new Land Rover Range Rover from having earned $8752 this last four weeks.. Its the most-financialy rewarding I’ve had.. It sounds unbelievable but you wont forgive yourself if you donβt check it
!mj131d:
β½β½
β½β½;β½β½ http://GoogleFinancialJobsCash131TopDataGetPay$97Hour… β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β β«β β ::::::!mj131d:….,…..