Team Sunnyside talks up Browns: While We’re Waiting
August 31, 2016Coco Crisp Returns to Cleveland
August 31, 2016Cleveland Indians (75-56) manager Terry Francona can be a stubborn man. Trotting Josh Tomlin onto the mound despite his well-known struggles (7.96 ERA in last 10 GS) was expected to be a decision he would regret. After just 1 2/3 innings pitched, Tomlin’s night would end after he gave up two earned runs in both the first and second frames, allowing seven hits to his five recorded outs—his very first pitch being planted several rows up in the left field bleachers.
The Indians would stay in the game though and ultimately win due to Francona being able to call upon the Tribe’s new dominant weapon: Their bullpen. Shawn Armstrong, Dan Otero, Zach McAllister, Bryan Shaw, and Andrew Miller combined for 7 1/3 innings of shutout relief. The effort was enough for the Indians offense1 to come back and defeat the Minnesota Twins (49-83), 5-4.
If the Indians are going to be a World Series contending team in October, then there will be many close games in late innings that require the relief pitching to shut things down. Given the MLB postseason schedule with off days, four relievers should be enough to manage. If recent data is any indication, the Tribe is well-prepared for such scenarios and might have some tough decisions to make about who gets the opportunities.
Relief Profiles
Andrew Miller
LHP, 6-foot-7
56 G, 60 IP, 1.35 ERA, 1.80 FIP, .717 WHIP, 8 BB, 101 SO
Best pitch: 85 mile per hour slider with great movement and similar initial look of his fastball leaves hitters flailing to the tune of a 21 percent whiff rate and batters hit a mere .174 against this pitch.
Secondary pitch: 96 mile per hour fourseam fastball with great sinking action leading to 53 percent ground ball rate.
Somehow, Miller has gotten even better since joining the Indians. In just 14 2/3 innings, he has 24 strikeouts to just two walks. Miller has MLB on rookie level right now and is just bending hitters to his will (there knees have literally buckled on two occasions).
http://vine.co/v/5O5hZrXhaYF
Cody Allen
RHP, 6-foot-1
54 G, 55 IP, 2.95 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 1.127 WHIP, 25 BB, 72 SO
Best pitch: 85 mile per hour curve ball that generates high amounts of ground balls though hitters often miss entirely with a 18 percent whiff rate. Hitters average only .145 against this pitch.
Secondary pitch: 95 mile per hour four-seam fastball with some rising action that gives hitters issues. Hitters have just a .227 batting average against the good old heater.
When Allen leaves it out there, his four-seam fastball can be hit hard as he has allowed 14 extra base hits from it, but he has mostly worked through his innings with ease.
https://vine.co/v/i9rZdP7wPaI
Bryan Shaw
RHP, 6-foot-1
61 G, 55.2 IP, 3.23 ERA, 4.12 FIP, 1.257 WHIP, 24 BB, 56 SO
Best pitch: Shaw throws a 94 mile per hour cutter that is much faster than most in MLB and causes a ridiculous 65 percent ground ball rate.
Secondary pitch: Great depth on his 82 mile per hour slider, which causes harmless fly balls when it is working well.
Shaw is a bit reviled amongst many Indians fans for a few bad outings but he has been stellar for the last two and a half months. He has only allowed earned runs in one of 31 appearances. Yes, Shaw has 30 scoreless appearances since June 17 (1.19 ERA overall since this date).
Zach McAllister
RHP, 6-foot-6
44 G, 42 IP, 4.07 ERA, 4.05 FIP, 1.571 WHIP, 19 BB, 45 SO
Best pitch: Having a 95 mile per hour fourseam fastball with some good action that causes hitters to foul or whiff on 63% of their swings is a nice pitch to have in the arsenal.
Secondary pitch: Who needs a second pitch, amirite?
Another oft-maligned reliever, McAllister has also been good in recent months. The 1.76 ERA over his last 14 appearances (15.1 IP) has been crucial for the Indians to have another reliable arm in the bullpen. Given is inability to locate his curve as a secondary pitch, there will always be worries of a return to Z-Mac Heart Attack on days when that fastball isn’t working. But, he is normally quite a useful arm. And calf.
http://vine.co/v/5iuPhermQ2t
Dan Otero
RHP, 6-foot-3
50 G, 57.2 IP, 1.25 ERA, 2.59 FIP, .902 WHIP, 10 BB, 44 SO
Best pitch: His 91 mile per hour two-seam sinker takes advantage of the Indians excellent infield defense as 64 percent of the batted balls wind up on the ground.
Secondary pitch: The slider maybe? Otero mixes in a four-seamer, changeup, and slider, which have been effective pitches for him. But, mostly because he throws the sinker 62 percent of the time and hitters sit on it.
Hey, it’s the Mickey Callaway reliever reclamation project of 2016. The difference with Otero compared to Manship and Scot Atchison before him is that Otero had some real MLB success before cratering in 2015. The magic is back and Otero has done a great job being among the more reliable relief options in baseball (second best reliever ERA in AL).
Other relievers
Shawn Armstrong, Kyle Crockett,2 and Mike Clevinger all are fighting to be included in the high leverage game that is the MLB postseason. Austin Adams, Jeff Manship, Joseph Colon, and others could potentially work themselves back into the conversation but currently look to be on the outside of the discussion.
39 Comments
Really liked this article. At the beginning of the season, what seemed like the shakiest component of the team is what is giving cause for optimism. Not the starting staff or even the until-recently strong lineup.
And great point about the post season emphasizing relief.
I don’t get to watch games. I listen sometimes, and occasionally catch up here. If someone can please indulge me- thanks:
* How does the relief staff’s ‘stuff’ translate to cold weather? Also- the starting staff.
* Francona is indeed very stubborn. Has he had the team bunting less? I haven’t noticed as many complaints about this. Seems a manager would be more inclined to bunt when a lineup is scuffling like they’ve been.
First, thank you for the kind words. Amazing how much adding Miller helped stabilize the entire pen. It has allowed Francona to use everyone to their strengths (rather than being forced to throw Shaw and Allen nearly every game).
Bunting – 3 straight batters attempted to bunt in high leverage last night. I posted a Mitchel Lichtman (smarter man than myself) who explained when it is and isn’t appropriate to bunt in yesterday’s post.
Cold weather is so pitcher-to-pitcher. We know that knuckleballs don’t knuckle as much, so no worries there. Other than that, it is more about spin rates and velocity, which shouldn’t be affected all that much unless the pitcher themself is bothered.
An interesting point though and I’ll see if I can dig up some Alan Nathan stuff on it to see if there is more to it than I remember.
Questions:
When does Tito and Mick rolling with Tomlin become utterly ridiculous (I mean, I’d argue that letting him start last night already crossed the line)? Do you think Tito is going to hit on 19 and ask for another?
Or I guess the apt analogy would be do you think Tito is going to hit on 25 and ask for another card?
Bonus question: Has any starting pitching pitcher ever gone 0-6 in a calendar month (with an ERA roughly in the 12 range)?
Miller is so nasty. #2 can’t decide whether to swing, hold up, or save his shins. I could watch that all day.
Who would have guessed that adding (what I consider to be) the best reliever in the game would completely revitalize our bullpen? They’ve definitely been the strongest part of the team over the last month, and it’s reassuring knowing that we should be able to compete in every game until the final out because of it.
If the starting rotation (outside Kluber) can get back to even 50% of the level they were at the first half of the season, we should be in great shape come October…even in spite of the sporadic feast or famine offense.
What do you do? Do you sit on a pitch? And, if you do, you realize soon that you are swinging at air on a pitch you thought was the one you were sitting on.
Bonus question answer: Of course. The bigger question is if it has happened for a first-place team in August or September after that same pitcher had struggled in July and June too.
Any time Tito does something that seems dumb, I assume it’s because of “intangibles”: to improve clubhouse morale; to save a player’s confidence; to win the favor of Baal, Demon Lord of Stick Sports.
As someone who was very critical of the Miller trade (or more honestly, simplyt confused), I stand corrected.
So would the front office claim Puig? Could we be the mystery team? (Doesn’t look like this is even possible).
If I get the cheat codes for life, I’m just tweaking my younger self from right-handed to left and adding Jamie Moyer caliber stuff. Is that really that much to ask?
I give him a huge benefit of the doubt too when he sticks with a turd–simply because he’s generally winning (and somehow overcoming these head scratchers). However, if it’s another manager, we’re lighting the torches and assuming it’s because David Delucci has naked photos of Manny Acta with three midgets.
White Sox have said they claimed but didn’t get him, so it was someone with a worse record than them.
I’m aware. Meant more as a theoretical question. Basically, how willing is the front office to do something daring? Take on a headcase with $20M+ still owed to him?
I was skeptical of the trade myself…not because I doubted Miller’s ability, but because I was high on Frazier as a prospect and I didn’t think the trade was worth doing and going “all-in” unless the Lucroy trade went through as well. (May he forever be smited)
Turns out Miller provided enough of an impact to make the trade worth it as is.
Agreed. When people were crediting Tito for all our success in 2013, I remained critical, bitter, negative, and cynical.
Because fried chicken in the clubhouse is an unorthodox way to motivate a winning team and the cause of all your problems on a losing one.
Really enjoying how the Indians are just gutting out wins against a team that is playing like this is their world series. Even loved the two throw-outs I saw, Giminez at third and Kip at the plate on that gorgeous play by Minnesota fielders. Tells me Tribe knows it’s a 30-game season now, no being shy at balls to the wall time. Which also tells me that, loyalty impulses aside, we’ve seen the last Tomlin start for a while.
Always tough to watch a guy get traded away after the team spent multiple seasons hyping his potential. I’ve read a few writers who said after the trade that they aren’t that high on Frazier, so that helps me sleep at night.
I am still high and still love Big Red. Very much wish we would have traded Zimmer, but doubt NYY would have seen him as an equal substitute. Ah well. Enjoy what we got is where I’m at.
I believe they had it in there. Discussed w/ Harv on Crisp thread but the reasons to acquire Puig far outweigh the reasons not to on this team.
Postgame quote suggested they would skip his next start (Kluber on normal rest) and after that is anyone’s guess.
Well, when is the last time Tito finished below .500? What about those BoSox teams that never gave up?
I mean, he gets too much credit too…but, players do like playing for him. Really tough to figure out where that line needs to be. Wish he was Maddon, but there’s only one of him in MLB. Tito is still a Top 5 guy to me.
How is there no one in the minors close enough to the bigs to supplant the Crisp-experiment? *boggles*
People are going to be really mad when Tito finally caves on Tomlin… and names House SP5.
Bode, I don’t remember what article’s comment section this is from, but I vaguely recall you advocating not to have The Flow take Tomlin’s spot in the rotation because you liked the thought of him coming out of the pen in the postseason. This was probably a while ago, early on in the stages of Tomlin’s melt down. Do you still feel this way? Tomlin clearly can’t start again, so who are the other options to step in?
I have been a prominent member of the #GoWithTheFlow movement for awhile now.
Indians can skip Tomlin’s next turn, but I would prefer to just start Clevinger because I want to save wear-n-tear of extra postseason innings on the starting rotation. There are no other options available unless we want to give Cody Anderson one more shot (he does seem to have figured some things out in Columbus lately).
Our position prospects are younger in the system than the pitching ones were. Another year away.
Can Tribe win division with Tomlin in rotation?
If no, make change now and don’t look back
If yes, will Kluber thru Bauer be healthy for postseason?
…If yes, Tomlin won’t be in rotation anyway, so who cares. Develop whatever roles are needed for postseason (ie. Clevinger in pen?)
…If no, start making plans for team Halloween party, because it won’t matter a whole hell of a lot anyway.
Detroit and KC are just close enough to not risk it IMO
Plus, No.1 seed has a significant advantage in playoffs
Those multitudes of reasons not to sign Puig are the reason we pay Tito the big bucks.
Theres no way a month should convince anyone either way on a trade.
How much has he actually helped? We were somewhere around 50-3 when leading after 7 innings before we got him.
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While I agree with your premise and still love Frazier more long-term than the few years of Miller we will get, there is no doubt Miller has helped Shaw’s workload dramatically
https://twitter.com/mgbode_WFNY/status/771040209962020865
I know I’m far too skeptical most of the time, but a month of relief appearances is not a reliable sample in any way.
Yes, ERA obviously is not reliable. But, usage is. Shaw is needed in 1/3 of the games rather than 1/2 of the games because of Miller.
Right, and that helps in that Shaw isn’t as good a reliever as Francona believes him to be. But even with Shaw’s mediocrity being used frequently, we were blowing very few leads. We paid a lot to feel comfortable with Miller, but how many extra wins are we actually getting?
Probably not all that many. But, the ability to have those arms fresh for October could pay out some dividends.
Also, did you happen to see the Ringer article today on Miller and Francona? Tito showed a some great leverage knowledge within it.
“Even the way we use Andrew, there’s going to be a game where we have him warmed up in the sixth and something goes awry, and we’re going to have arguably our best pitcher coming in in a situation where we’re down a run,”
If he can’t recognize being down just one late in a game is not high leverage, I don’t see much of a reason to believe he gets it.
Also, he’s only used Miller as the closer three times, twice the night after Allen threw 30+ pitches, almost certainly making him unavailable to close. Allen is the capital C Closer, even when Miller would be best used pitching the ninth inning. It’s great that he’s not just the designated eighth inning guy, but is used to protect leads at any time late in the game, but there’s still some serious holes in Francona’s understanding of leverage.
Fair enough.