After embarrassing on-field incident, Columbus Crew SC trades Kamara to New England
May 12, 2016LeBron, Cavs waiting patiently for East opponent
May 12, 2016The start of the NFL regular season is months away, but analysts cannot be so patient. Predictions must be made. One of the many publications making educated guesswork out of the offseason is ESPN’s Football Outsiders who released their first set of projections.
How do they come up with their set of projections?
“Our projection system starts with Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings for the past three years, although last year’s ratings end up about six times as important as either 2013 or 2014. (You can find last year’s final ratings here.)”
The 2016 season is expected to be a complete overhault rebuild that would put any HGTV renovation show to shame. As such, the Cleveland Browns are unsurprisingly projected to finish poorly in the AFC. Well, scratch that. The Browns have been finishing poorly each season. In 2016, they are projected to finish dead last (in the AFC). The Browns are the only team in the conference in which a feeble four win total is estimated to be reached though there are seven other teams expected to fall below eight wins. Here’s the AFC North projections:
- Pittsburgh Steelers: 12-4 (11.8 mean wins; SOS: 23)
- Cincinnati Bengals: 10-6 (9.8 mean wins; SOS: 20)
- Baltimore Ravens: 10-6 (9.6 mean wins; SOS: 24)
- Cleveland Browns: 4-12 (3.6 mean wins; SOS: 7)
If Football Outsiders is correct, the AFC North would be the best division in the conference and send three teams to the playoffs. For a rebuilding team, a difficult road in the AFC North will make it even harder for the young squad with 14 draft picks to gain any significant traction.
While Football Outsiders has full paragraphs describing most teams, their explanation for the Browns is short, sweet, and straight to the point.
“Cleveland will spend the year scouting college quarterbacks.”
Such an inexperienced team that let veteran leadership walk out the door during free agency and needs plenty more talent and upgrades at positions all around the field needs another round of draft picks to even think about a turnaround. Sure, it might be tough for Browns fans to hear, but the assets gained for future drafts will help continue to stock depth and playmakers.
For what it’s worth, in ESPN’s Todd McShay’s way-too-early 2017 NFL mock draft, the analyst has the Browns nabbing Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson with the first-overall selection, a player that could easily become the franchise quarterback this franchise has been searching for since 1999. Unless, of course, Cody Kessler proves himself the perfect fit for Hue Jackson’s offense before the Browns get to the 2017 NFL Draft.
The full AFC projections (AFC North teams are bold):
- Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
- Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
- New England Patriots (10-6)
- Houston Texans (8-8)
- Cincinnati Bengals* (10-6)
- Baltimore Ravens* (10-6)
- Buffalo Bills (9-7)
- San Diego Chargers (8-8)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
- Denver Broncos (7-9)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-9)
- Tennessee Titans (7-9)
- Oakland Raiders (6-10)
- New York Jets (6-10)
- Miami Dolphins (5-11)
- Cleveland Browns (4-12)
29 Comments
I’m not a 4-letter insider…where do they predict Philly will finish?
Cleveland outsider, BenRM, also predicts the Browns to finish last.
4 Wins? Someone’s got a bullish outlook for the Browns.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/
They predict the Browns won’t be very good? Huh…
I always say 4-12 til they prove they are an improving team. Sometimes that’s optimistic.
I am very close to Philly Market. Will be fun rooting for them to lose.
that’s a stretch there , BEN …
saying the browns will be “scouting college QB’s next year” is a nice little slap in the face to Hue & the HBT … they scouted QB’s this year & came up with kessler … not the sexiest pick in the draft , but we’ll find out shortly.
though i must admit , I am a huge fan of ole miss QB chad kelly … and the browns are set-up nicely to get a QB next year if that’s what the cards dictate.
it’s more than safe to say the browns will finish last in the afc north … but i still like us to be surprising & get 5 , 6 or more wins … i will stick with my 5-11 prediction for now.
amen. a top 10 pick to go with #1 overall would make this upcoming season not to bad to tolerate.
… i see 6 winnable games on the schedule , starting with cleveland at philly week 1.
Love the team logo!
hi HOP … you own the rights to my team name … so , you got that goin’ for you.
I know, right :-p
This team goes 4-12, winning 3 of their last 5 games to pull into position to draft 3rd.
and i hope we screw that all up by going 7-9 … mwahahahahaha !!
Team Snark stands by 0-16.
i guess anything could happen , but when you look at those afc projections above : denver 7-9 ???? … with that defense !!?! … i’d bet SAM GOLD could play QB for them & they’d win more than 7 games.
and i don’t see the bills & chargers doing as well as projected above … or colts doing as bad with a healthy andrew luck.
4 wins. That’s being generous.
4-12 would be an improvement from 2015!
Why you gotta throw Sam under the bus 🙂
LMAO !!! … i like SAM.
That would be the Browns way blow the long term for a season that wasn’t even .500 and consider that a success!
Way underestimating JAX, OAK and TEN. BAL will have some challenges this year, they signed Trent. Ben needs to stay healthy for Pukesburg, which for a whole season would be an anomaly.
Browns will sucks. Will take 8 to 12 games for these rookies to matter.
Too bad we’re making the freakin’ playoffs this year!!!
WOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Then trades down to 14. Then to 29. Then proceeds to draft 17 players.
so we’ll be better than last year?
no way …