Stop it: new Indian Mike Napoli is not former Indian Mark Reynolds

Even when something good is happening, Cleveland fans are conditioned to prepare themselves for what bad may await. Sure, this bite of pie was delicious, but there is still an entire pie left to eat. There might be a razorblade hiding within the next morsel. Or, we wonder if the baker was using Minny Jackson’s special chocolate pie recipe that she fed to Hilly Holbrook. Thus, the enjoyment of each individual bite is mitigated by the worry and fear of the next one. Such steeling against the worst case scenario appears to be happening with regards to Indians first baseman Mike Napoli, who has drawn far too many comparisons to Mark Reynolds’ abbreviated time in Cleveland. After just four games played, we’re here to tell you it is all unfounded.

Historical Data

When the Cleveland Indians acquired Mark Reynolds, he was a 29-year-old right-handed corner infielder known for his power at the plate (32-, 3-7, 44-home run seasons) and propensity to strike out. Reynolds even can claim Wall of Shame status for leading MLB in strikeouts each season from 2008-2010, and led the AL in strikeouts in 2011. Then again, when you hit 141 home runs in four seasons, teams will let quite a few K’s slide. Defensively, well, let’s just say Reynolds was in MLB for his ability to hit the ball far. But when your K rate stays above 30 percent, and your isolated power drops below .200 to around 20 home runs per season, teams have much less patience. This is why Reynolds has not spent multiple years with a team since 2011-2012 when he was in Baltimore.

The Indians acquisition of Mike Napoli was for a 34-year-old right-handed corner infielder known for his patience at the plate, ability in the field, and moderate power. Napoli has hit 30 home runs once (and exactly 30 home runs) during what was his magical career season of 2011. He also batted .320/.414/.631 as he spent the season doing his Joey Votto imitation. But that season is not the expected output of Napoli as his career numbers are .253/.355/.483 with a 123 OPS+. He can hit over 20 home runs and supplement those with more than 20 doubles, but asking for much more is probably going to leave you disappointed especially since he has only played 140 games once in his career (2010 with the Los Angeles Angels).

Plate mood swings

Reynolds had began his season with the Indians hitting well as he hit for power and got on base. Then, by the end of May, he fell apart. The power dissipated and with it any signs of hitting for average or getting on base. He started chasing more pitches, which led to more strikeouts. He was such a disaster that the Indians released him in August as they could not find a team willing to give up even a middling prospect for him given his incredible struggles.¹

Mike Napoli had his own bad splits in 2015 as he struggled with the Boston Red Sox (and minor injuries) before catching fire with the Texas Rangers after an August 7 trade.

So, naturally, fear is starting to pop up about Napoli having a fast start followed by an extended cold streak. Except, well, it has only been four games. And, unlike Reynolds, he is not dependent upon one elite skill. Napoli is an all-around baseball player that will provide good defense even when he does go through a bad spell at the plate. And, he also has a fantastic ability to work pitch counts and get on base via walks.

ESPN’s Buster Olney noted Napoli was leading MLB in pitches per plate appearance so far. A quick look showed the miniscule sample size of 2016 was fortified with his 2015 stats to demonstrate being near the top of such a list is not an uncommon occurrence for Napoli.

Santana #4 in 2015 (#38 so far in 2016).
Napoli's 4.35 P/PA would have been #3 in 2015 if he qualified. https://t.co/uiOA4W69qh

— michael bode (@mgbode_WFNY) April 11, 2016

Through his career, Napoli doesn’t have strong split differences between the first half and second half. If anything, in recent years, he has been a stronger second half player. Yes, he has had some slumps at the plate, but it is baseball and he is not Bryce Harper. He has, however, mitigated those struggles with his glove and with his ability to get on base.

There is one split though that helps explain his overly strong numbers with the Rangers in 2015. The Rangers had Prince Fielder and Mitch Moreland at first base and designated hitter, so they utilized Napoli in a platoon with Moreland where the right-handed Napoli would face predominately left-handed pitchers. He thrived as he has throughout his career. And, three of the four starters the Indians have faced in 2016 have been southpaws.²

Conclusions

Will Napoli continue his current 197 OPS+ over the course of a full season? Of course not. He has had a ludicrously small sample size and even his magical 2011 season saw him achieve a 173 OPS+. But, it does not mean we cannot enjoy the fast start he has had and do so without worry about the bottom completely falling out. Other than the first half of 2015 with Boston, Napoli has had a relatively stable run of success, and he is not completely reliant on the long ball to achieve said success.

Who is a closer approximation to Mike Napoli? Oh, probably the guy who hits right after him in the Indians lineup in Carlos Santana.

So, stop trying to tell me what might be in this piece of pie. Besides, this is Cleveland, if we are putting that in our food, then it’s going in our burgers.

1. Sad, given the return the Indians have had on some of those supposedly middling prospects such as Carlos Santana, Yan Gomes, and more. [↩]
2. Though Napoli did go 1-for-3 with a walk and two runs scored when right-handed Clay Buchholz started for the Red Sox. [↩]