Adam Schefter believes Browns will trade No. 2 pick
April 19, 2016Indians’ Michael Brantley, Lonnie Chisenhall to be activated off DL
April 19, 2016A wise man once said a flute without holes is not a flute, but a donut without holes is a danish. Sadly, there was not mention of an NFL roster littered with holes when it comes to starting caliber players, but if there were it would likely be classified as the Cleveland Browns.
But how, exactly, will the Browns turn their donut into a danish? One train of thought is to acquire as many potential starting assets as possible in order to plug said holes, building the team up for the future through the NFL Draft. Trading down from the No. 2 overall selection could provide many of those needed assets as the Tennessee Titans demonstrated when they trade down from the first overall selection. But, what would a trade down mean for the Browns?
With the Los Angeles Rams holding the first overall pick and appearing to be ready to draft their franchise quarterback, the Browns might not want to test history by drafting the second passer in the litter. On Monday, WFNY looked at what players might best fit with the second pick. Today, we take a peek at what the Browns might obtain by trading down as ESPN’s Adam Schefter believes they will.
Also, interestingly, among the Browns Harvard analytical minds is Kevin Meers, who in 2011 re-imagined the old Jimmy Johnson trade value chart by utilizing actual statistical values of players. In his chart, the top picks are less valuable and the lower picks are more valuable. So, the Browns might want to pretend they never saw or heard about his chart during any trade negotiations as they attempt to unload the high pick for lower ones.
As a reminder, the Tennessee Titans received pick Nos. 15, 43, 45 and 76 in the 2016 draft as well as first- and third-round picks in 2017 from the Rams in exchange for the No. 1, No. 113 and No. 177 overall picks.
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Trade down but stay within first ten selections
There is a legitimately deep pool of top tier prospects in the 2016 NFL Draft, so acquiring a few extra assets and staying within that tier makes sense for a talent-deficient team such as the Browns. The expected compensation would range wildly depending on how far the Browns dropped down. A move to the third slot would likely garner a second- or third-round pick. A move down to the tenth selection, for instance, would most likely require that same pick, a first round pick in 2017, and additional filler value.
In Monday’s post, Laremy Tunsil, Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack, Joey Bosa, and DeForest Buckner were all discussed as potential non-quarterback targets from a Browns’ point of view. Each of these players would still be a potential target if the Browns were to trade down, but remain in the upper tier of the draft pool.
The key for the Browns would be to still acquire a player who could become a true difference-maker on the team. Building blocks players are fine, but they often will get swept up and replaced by new regimes as T.J. Ward, Jabaal Sheard, Mitchell Schwartz, Alex Mack, and plenty of other former Browns players can attest. Drafting and developing players who a team feels are keystone components to the infrastructure are the types of targets necessary as the Browns hit reset on their rebuild once again.
The following players would be under consideration:
Shaq Lawson, DE/OLB, Clemson (Redshirt Junior)
WFNY’s Joe Gilbert says: Shaq Lawson is big man who can control blockers with his great power. The 6-foot-3, 269-pound Clemson Tiger has strong arms to control blockers at the line of scrimmage. This trait helps him play very well against the run, pushing blockers back into backfield to disrupt the run. He can disengage from blocks to snatch the runner in his area. He is a disciplined player, able to keep the edge and not over-pursue the play. In terms of pass rushing, he is not as gifted a pass rusher as others on the list. But, he does possess good technique and power to get to the quarterback. He can bull rush, rip away from blocks and even do a powerful spin move to stun blockers and get to the quarterback.
Browns POV: Lawson is an upgraded version of Jabaal Sheard in most every way. He should be able to handle OLB on the strong side and control not only the run game (keeping contain), but also has ability to get to the quarterback, bat down passes, and be a general disruption. He is also extremely polished for a player who only started one season for the Clemson Tigers, but that does lend to some worry as well.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State (Junior)
WFNY’s Joe Gilbert says: Stay tuned as the running back rankings are coming out this week.
Browns POV: Drafting a running back in the Top 10 of the NFL Draft requires a special type of running back. Zeke isn’t the physical Adonis that Todd Gurley was last year, but he is a legit every down back with his ability to run for power, speed, block, and receive the ball. His vision and quick-jets once he hits the hole are among the reasons he would be considered. NFL fans might have flashbacks to Maurice Jones-Drew when he hits the field.
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Notre Dame (Redshirt Junior)
WFNY’s Joe Gilbert says: Ronnie Stanley has the size and talent to start right away for a NFL team. He is an athletic player with quick feet to move smoothly on the field. He can mirror rushers, shuffling his feet in either direction to stay in front of his defender. He is extremely fast off the line, getting the head start against the rusher to get himself into position. The tackle can get into position quickly off the line and takes good angles to stay in front of the oncoming rusher. He has long arms to keep rushers off his body and control the rusher.
Browns POV: The Browns have the same issue with Stanley they had with Tunsil. He is a great value if being drafted as a left tackle, but some of that value is lost by inserting him on the right side. And, the thought of using an extremely valuable top of the first round pick just to replace the above average right tackle the team lost in free agency (Mitchell Schwartz) is a bad use of assets. Stanley makes the most sense if the Browns are also willing to trade Joe Thomas for additional picks.
Carson Wentz / Jared Goff, QB
Much more coming on how the Browns might value these quarterbacks in the next couple of days from WFNY.
Trade down to mid-first round
Trading past the tenth selection would be less than ideal as while there are still some players who will undoubtedly have great NFL careers in that range, the red flags grow more numerous the further down the first round a team goes. The Browns would only even consider such a move if they could closely mirror the value the Titans received in compensation for the first overall selection.
Quick hitters on some potential Browns player targets
- Laquon Treadwell, WR, Ole Miss (Junior): Lack of ideal speed is the only thing holding Treadwell back from being considered an elite prospect. Anquan Boldin is a good NFL comparison for the big wide receiver who works well in tight spaces.
- Robert Nkemdiche, DT/DE, Ole Miss / Noah Spence, OLB, Eastern Kentucky: Off field issues will put a damper on draft values for two of the most athletic players in the draft.
- Vernon Hargreaves III, CB, Florida (Junior): Lack of ideal height and positional value hurt Hargreaves, but he certainly has the talent to reward the Browns for having a pair of Gators at corner (with Haden).
- Darron Lee, LB, Ohio State (Junior): Again, as with Jack, inside linebacker is not a huge area of concern, but the Browns might be tempted to draft the talented Lee anyway and figure out how to make it work.
- Jarran Reed / A’Shawn Robinson, DL, Alabama: Either of these DL would be an upgrade for the Browns at defensive end. The issue is if using their prime pick on the position of run-stopping DE would be worthwhile.
WFNY 2016 NFL Draft Prospects Rankings:
Safeties | Cornerbacks | Inside Linebackers | Edge Rushers | Interior Defensive Linemen | Offensive Tackles | Interior Offensive Linemen | Tight Ends | Wide Receivers
45 Comments
Bode, where on earth are you finding the energy to care so much about the Browns/draft right now? We could power whole cities with your zeal 🙂
I expect that the HBT (I don’t even know what that stands for) has looked ahead to next year’s QB crop as much as possible and must think that there’s someone coming out then that they’ll shoot for. If so, trade that pick, but still grab an impact guy.
I keep hearing Jets, but I hope the HBT is targeting Philly…
https://media2.giphy.com/media/hHZfOv3tpyItG/200.gif
Harvard Brain Trust.
I would prefer not to fall out of the top 10. I think it’s a pretty big mistake to trade any further than that.
http://vignette2.wikia.nocookie.net/le-miiverse-resource/images/8/83/Shahahaha.gif/revision/latest?cb=20150816151025
Haha, thanks. More of an academic exercise as I have always loved the draft. Getting to think through the possibilities, evaluate the strengths/weaknesses and come up with a plan of action is fun. Plus, going through things with Joe who provides WFNY great resources on the prospects and y’all in the comments help spark most of these.
Even have a commenter helping out with another one in this particular series for Thursday. Should be a fun one.
That would be great if they could end up getting more players that will be leaving in Free Agency in a few years.
I have not yet begun to shenanigan.
Hos Be Trippin.
Haslam’s Been Tampering.
hi RGB … philly has no 2nd round pick. they do have two 3-round picks at #77 & #79 overall … that won’t be enough. unless the browns will settle for a 1st-round pick in next year’s draft.
hi BEN … i would think it would depend on the deal & what we get in return.
… and the jets are currently #20 overall … that’s a long way to drop. i’m hoping for dallas (#4) or SF (#7).
i would watch the 49ers at #7 overall … got a feeling they may pursue wentz & then trade kaepernick to the broncos.
Sure, if the Browns got something loco like this and next years’ firsts and this year’s second, I’d give it a thought.
But I’m not sure who would offer that in this draft class? It’s deep and lacks really top end talent at the positions that matter.
Not sure how much draft capital they have to work with. Trade a player or two?
hi SAM … right after i posted this i read the 49ers are going to trade with dallas (#4 overall) in hopes to get wentz. they’d better have a back-up plan …
looking at what Titans got for the 1->15 drop, I don’t think what you suggested would be enough.
Heterojunction Bipolar Transistor
hi MG … i think the odds of us trading out of the #2 spot are pretty good , unless we are wanting way too much to move out of that spot … somebody may/will get desperate to move into our spot. and it may be someone who doesn’t need a QB … maybe jacksonville covets ramsey & wants to trade up.
if we can get any of the non-QB’s you mentioned above & then be sitting with possibly two 2nd-round picks , that might not be too bad.
So, if SF moves to #4, that may make our #2 more valuable to someone REALLY wanting a QB.
Philly, Jets…
Saddes thing you’ll read all day:
https://twitter.com/a_weave20/status/722372960766595072
There’s like dozens of these. So sad.
The Texans were so thrilled with Hoyer that they let him leave in order to pursue/sign the unknown that is Brock Osweiler.
Also, Hoyer is the one post-99 Browns QB with an above .500 record. Why ruin it?
Although, another reputable blog says nope.
http://thebiglead.com/2016/04/19/514536/
Remember, all our scenarios hinge on finding someone dumber than us.
Can’t believe they would make this move prior to on the clock draft night. It would definitely make our pick more valuable if they did it prior.
I don’t think any position generates the offers like QB.
Strangely, even though the Browns have been the poster child, there’s seems to be more dumber than smarter throughout the NFL. Someone’ll pay…
i have not seen any firm confirmation on this yet … i must be rumor mongering …
I think I started that. Or at least came up with the name “Harvard Brain Trust” around the time of the more influential person who gets credit for it. I was specifically thinking of Governor Menelaus “Pappy” O’Daniel saying that about the Soggy Bottom Boys in “O Brother Where Art Thou?”
“These boys is gonna be my brain trust!”
Always and forever.
We need to get us some of that reform.
Garry_Owen, friend of the little man.
Dapper Dan man, aren’t ya?
Or smarter. It might be dumb to move away from the QB at No.2. We won’t know until those players hit the field.
http://i.imgur.com/CEa5uhz.gif
I agree. But I’d be surprised if they even get that much. A team would really have to love the second QB. In which case, why aren’t the Browns drafting him?
then, we go back to the other article on what non-QB to take at No.2 🙂
Touche!
One of my all time favorites! In our version of O’ Brother/The Odyssey, maybe Haslam’s homeless man can be the oracle?
did someone say Shenanigans?
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view2/4009374/super-troopers-shenanigans-o.gif
Habeas Bicarius Telarius.
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