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March 23, 2016There’s a common narrative out there about fifth starter battles in spring training—they’re fun to talk about, but ultimately meaningless. Recent Cleveland Indians history certainly offers some supporting evidence to this theory, from David Huff and Jeanmar Gomez wrangling rotation spots (in 2010 and 2012, respectively) to T.J. House’s forgettable victory parade last April. Before we just laugh away the absurdity of the whole dance, however, it’s worth noting that these decisions—sometimes, at least—actually do make an impact. The successful 2013 re-animation of Scott Kazmir quickly springs to mind, but an even more extreme case was our old friend Cliff Lee, who actually had to win the No. 5 spot in the spring of his eventual Cy Young season in 2008.
Josh Tomlin knows a thing or two about these scenarios, too. Coming off a promising rookie season in 2010, the then 26 year-old Little Cowboy came to Goodyear and edged out both Huff and Gomez for the fifth spot in 2011, a season in which he’d start a still career-high 26 games. Now, five years later, Tomlin is back in a similar boat—only this time he’s the veteran holding off a sophomore challenger (and a fellow cowboy) named Cody Anderson.
Indians Fifth Starter Competitions + Winner’s Eventual Stats, 2008-2015
2015 – TJ House (over Salazar) / 4 GS, 0-4, 13.15 ERA
2014 – Carlos Carrasco (over Tomlin) / 14 GS, 8-7, 2.55 ERA
2013 – Scott Kazmir (over Carrasco) / 29 GS, 10-9, 4.04 ERA
2012 – Jeanmar Gomez (over K. Slowey) / 17 GS, 5-8, 5.96 ERA
2011 – Josh Tomlin (over Huff, J. Gomez) / 26 GS, 12-7, 4.25 ERA
2010 – David Huff (over Carrasco, Sowers) / 15 GS, 2-11, 6.21 ERA
2009 – Anthony Reyes (over Laffey, Sowers) / 8 GS, 1-1, 6.57 ERA
2008 – Cliff Lee (over Laffey, Sowers) / 31 GS, 22-3, 2.54 ERA (Cy Young Award)
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It’s easy to forget that, along with House breaking camp with the big club a year ago, Zach McAllister actually took the No. 4 spot, with Danny Salazar starting the season in Columbus. Overall, the ecosystem of the Indians pitching staff has come into far greater balance since then. House, who was the darkest of dark horses to make the club again this spring, was just demoted to Triple-A. McAllister is firmly entrenched in the bullpen. And for once, there are no veteran free agents (ie, Gavin Floyd types) slinking around the clubhouse looking to muddy the waters. The duel has been a simple cowboy v. cowboy from the get-go, with Tomlin holding the clear inside track against Anderson, despite some great work by the rookie last season.
Since Anderson still has minor league options and a need for at least a little more seasoning, the intrigue is less about who will win the battle and more about the fun of the matchup. Cleveland has a pile of off-days in the early part of the season, so it simply makes sense to rely on the experienced swingman Tomlin as a fifth starter / long reliever while the slightly more green Anderson stays on a regular routine in Columbus. If actual spring performance matters at all in the decision, good luck choosing a winner there. Tomlin has been roughed up to the tune of 9 earned runs in just 11.1 innings, with opponents hitting .429 off him with a couple dingers (Josh’s career-long Achilles heel). Cody, not exactly seizing opportunity himself, has surrendered 10 runs (8 earned) in 12 innings, with three balls clearing the fence.
This is why we’re better off looking at why these two guys are in this battle in the first place. They each pitched very well in relatively small sample sizes in 2015, posting quite similar numbers in several categories.
2015 Tomlin (7-2)
3.02 ERA, 10 GS, 65.2 IP, 0.84 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 4.43 FIP, 1.9 WAR
2015 Anderson (7-3)
3.05 ERA, 15 GS, 91.1 IP, 1.11 WHIP, 4.3 K/9, 4.27 FIP, 2.4 WAR
Anderson turns 26 later this year, and his unexpected emergence in 2015 really mirrored that of Tomlin five years prior. Cody was a 14th round draft pick in 2011; Josh was a 19th rounder in 2006. Both took four years to reach the big leagues, and both overcame relatively low expectations by relying on locating pitches more so than electric strikeout stuff (Tomlin made 12 starts his rookie season and posted a 6-4 record, 4.56 ERA, and 5.3 K/9).
Now, the key difference between 2016 Tomlin and 2016 Anderson is that Tomlin has actually taken some eye-popping leaps in his already well-established skill set over the past two years, suddenly combining his always superb walk totals with a penchant for striking guys out. His career-high 8.1 K/9 rate over 16 starts in 2014 was a jump of nearly 3 K/9 over his previous best season, and he proved it wasn’t a fluke in his limited, post-injury work last season, striking out nearly 8 per 9 innings again. Tomlin was justly rewarded this offseason with a $5.5 million contract extension—the number one factor in why his roster spot is likely secure. Notably, Fangraphs recently wrote about a three mile per hour bump in Anderson’s fastball velocity, so a similar jump in K/9 rate is not out of the question for him.1
While most of the attention paid to the Indians’ pitching staff concerns its “Big 3” and the perfect storm that could form if Trevor Bauer figures things out, it’s no secret that most good teams need something more like a six or seven man staff to survive a season—at the very least. The Tomlin vs. Anderson showdown, for all the country music, bow-huntin’, and tobacco spittin’ that comes with it—is mostly a re-assuring reminder that the cavalry is here if the unexpected happens. Cody Anderson has proven he can step in and pitch well not only if Tomlin falters, but when the inevitable aches and pains take down one of the All-Star arms, as well. Sure, maybe we thought the same thing in the past about various David Huffs and Daisuke Matsuzakas. And yeah, TJ House’s 2014 numbers were mighty encouraging, too. Let’s just say, in the grand scheme of things, your fifth and sixth starter jobs are in pretty good hands. Oh, and from depth comes trade bait.
- Fangraphs also compared Cody Anderson to Matt Harvey. [↩]
8 Comments
I’m disappointed the picture for this article wasn’t hand drawn.
It is still Spring Training for us writers too 🙂
Man 3 comments here and 140 on Chief Wahoo…..
It would be nice if the Tribe could turn one of these guys into trade value. Anderson can be a solid 3 or 4 guy for a lot of teams.
The average team gives something like 10 starts to its #7 starter, and uses 10 starters over the course of a season. Rotation depth can become necessary almost overnight.
I’d like to see one moved into the bullpen as a long-reliever. Get some utility until we inevitably need him as a starter.
How many guys rotated through that fifth slot last year?
Tomlin
Marcum
Anderson
House
McCallister
Murata
Chen
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