Where the Browns stand: Inside Linebackers
February 23, 2016
Answering the NFL combine’s dumbest questions: While We’re Waiting…
February 24, 2016The only thing sillier than NBA Trade Machine Screenshot Season is the NFL’s Mock Draft Season. Realize for a second that this “season” has resulted in well-connected pundits like Mel Kiper Jr. doing conference calls with other media to talk about the draft. Kiper knows a lot of things about a lot of things and his opinions and insights are valuable, but you must be able to recognize this attention-grabbing echo chamber is all about.
Even as we write up the contents as they relate to the Cleveland Browns, I’d like to think we have some perspective — that it’s interesting coffee talk, but primarily for entertainment purposes only. For we, the fans, it’s more important to introduce ourselves to the candidates who didn’t play at Ohio State or on some other nationally televised stage. Carson Wentz isn’t invalidated by the fact that he went to a school in North Dakota, but he is someone we have to learn about somehow. Mock draft season and draft experts are as good a way as any other. Learning about prospects aside, it’s important to keep the “news” this time of year in perspective.
After Kiper spoke on a conference call on Monday, CBS Sports draft analyst Dane Brugler had some critical words for some of what the ESPN expert was relaying about Memphis’ Paxton Lynch. Per the Akron Beacon Journal’s Nate Ulrich, “ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. said [a] strong combine [and] pro day would get Memphis QB Paxton Lynch ‘back into first round’ after poor bowl game vs. Auburn,” a statement with which Brugler took issue.
Love Mel. But this isn't how the process works… https://t.co/SrJKUyTdPt
— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) February 22, 2016
You see, Mel Kiper was talking about Paxton Lynch as if he’s some song that is getting more and more plays on local radio and selling more and more copies as he screams up the Billboard charts. Many, including Dane Brugler, would suggest that this doesn’t actually happen. Most NFL teams have done the bulk of their college scouting already and that game against Auburn where Paxton Lynch went 16-of-37 passing with an interception on the way to a 31-10 loss has already been factored in. The idea that the former Memphis QB with three seasons of game tape on record is going to drastically change his draft stock doing drills in Indianapolis is laughable.
The more I’ve come to learn about the NFL Draft and how the scouting operations work around the league, the less I believe this stuff. The only movements you generally see this time a year are guys falling downward because of new, relevant information. This kind of information is on a police blotter or reported in a drug testing lab or, more sympathetically, at the end of a surgeon’s scalpel if a guy gets hurt during the process. Those are obvious exceptions though, and they’re far outnumbered by more subtle changes that are made from additional proof shown in the combine.
This part of the year is all about fine tuning a draft board and winning tie breakers. If the Browns have Joey Bosa neck and neck with Myles Jack from UCLA, and they have some amazing interview with Bosa that convinces them he’s not only an elite talent but he’s going to be slightly more coachable than the alternative, maybe they flip a couple players. Maybe they have a bad interview with someone they were projecting to be a value pick in the fifth round and he gets knocked off the board because he won’t return punts, you know, for example. Maybe one guy scores a bit higher on the Wonderlic, but avoid that trap as well.1
Just avoid overreacting to any of the punditry. There are legit sources, and they are certainly posturing and trying to accomplish things with dynamics between various teams in the league. There’s just no way the players are actually moving up and down in the ways that many of the pundits claim they might be. This is the time to use the mock drafts to learn names and possibilities, but other than rumors about who is going first and second, leave the speculation to the side.
- When someone’s low Wonderlic score leaks this year, just ignore it. There’s no upside to discussing it whatsoever. [↩]
22 Comments
2016 Cleveland Browns War Room…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vs1N5NYyb24
The sole purpose of mock drafts are so “analysts” can say they correctly predicted as many picks as possible, even if it took them to iteration 13.e and called the selection “unlikely.” #nailedit
From their Hahhvahd frat days to the Cleveland Browns war room! Oh the places you will go…
“There’s just no way the players are actually moving up and down in the ways that many of the pundits claim they might be.”
I’m not so sure about that. I specifically remember Cam Newton entering the draft process with a late first/early second round grade. He was slowly was massaged into a top 10 pick, and of course eventually skyrocketed all the way up to #1 overall. I think this was due in large part to his physical intangibles. 6’5″, 245 lbs. doesn’t roll around every day. It’s exactly for this reason that I could see Paxton Lynch mount a meteoric rise of his own. Maybe he ultimately doesn’t have quite the oomph that Cam did, but at 6’6″ 225 lbs., it’s not unreasonable to think he could shoot up the draft boards a la Ryan Tannehill, Blake Bortles, and Cam.
Physical attributes are literally the definition of tangibles. He didn’t sprout 8 inches between the end of his college career and the combine.
I believe that Craig’s point is that all this board movement is occurring on the pundits’ boards, not on the boards of the actual NFL teams. The teams’ draft boards don’t fluctuate much with the results of the latest workout or rumor or what have you, and they aren’t erasing them and starting all over again like the pundits do.
Whatever grades the media give players aren’t necessarily the same as the grades the teams give them. (Keep in mind that I’m talking about real NFL teams that know what they’re doing, not . . . well, you know.)
I just wish the Browns could hide what players they like, the last few years (barring trades) the media know exactly who the Browns like months before the draft, even if the player is ranked lower and not a positional need(see Cameron Erving at pick 19)
I still would like to see what the QB report produced that we ignored. I want to see where JFF was ranked, and where Carr was ranked.
I thought the report said we should draft Bridgewater?
http://www.thepostgame.com/blog/dish/201405/browns-100000-study-finds-teddy-bridgewater-best-qb-draft
that is what I heard as well, but who was 2? Carr? Where was Manziel
The Banner-commissioned report supposedly recommended Carr and Bridgewater (not necessarily in that order). It also had red-flagged Johnny.
Buttttt old Ray Farmer decided to disregard the report because he had a good feeling about Johnny.
We all care about the Browns/NFL draft – that’s why we’re here – but I wonder to what extent peoples’ degree of caring has waned at this point. I am toeing the line of total indifference. The undignified losing, the constant reboots, the ungodly uniforms, the utter lack of any core to build around, the criminal owner…it’s all just totally alienating and makes the NFL’s draft extravaganza feel like an even more empty spectacle than usual. Others feeling this too?
I was definitely feeling this way at the end of the season. Heck, let’s be honest, I was feeling this way after just a handful of games in 2015. I really like the new direction that Haslam is taking though. I like the people the he’s hired. I like the Harvard brain trust. I like Hue. I would say that my optimism is renewed… this is the first time that a reboot feels (to me) like there is a real and solid plan to get ahead of the other teams in our division.
Houshmazzilli… championship! There was a time in my life where I quoted that commercial way too much.
Haslam still could be indicted…
Otherwise, I would agree that this reboot feels solid, but the talent differential with even competitive teams is so vast that we face another stretch of rebuilding with contention more or less ruled out for next year or two. And at a more meta level, I still grapple with concussions/CTE, and wonder how much longer I should support this industry with my time/dollars, however half-heartedly.
Sorry, perhaps feeling the effects of the cold rain in February more than usual today 😉
You should be warned that I’ve also managed to talk myself into the possibility that Jim O’Neil is one of the worst defensive coordinators in the history of the NFL. This is a defense that had almost all of the same players that Ray Horton had in 2013 and 2014 when Pettine was the one who was coordinating the defense. The Browns were among of the best pass defenses in the league those years. They were 3rd in yards/attempt in 2013 and 5th in yards/attempt in 2014. Then Jim O’Neil takes over the defense and they fall to 31st in yards/attempt. I just can’t see the players, who were largely the same, being responsible for that nosedive. I think there might actually be a ton of talent on our team… we just haven’t been able to see it.
Also, certainly can’t blame you for your feelings regarding concussions/CTE. I’m finding myself affected by the outcomes there too. I definitely have that dichotomy of wanting to watch college and NFL football games while also knowing that I won’t allow my son to play organized football when he’s old enough (he can still play backyard football with his buddies… no problems there).
So I’ll go next w/ my glass half empty, haha.
O’Neil actually had the defense playing competitively in 2014 before Hoyer’s play fell apart, but clearly there was something structurally wrong with their scheme, and the utter lack of adaptiveness was stunningly unprofessional. I saw somewhere that Horton’s defenses have given up over 25 points/game dating back to Arizona. To me, he seems the ultimate “low-ceiling, high floor” type of coordinator, but is a skilled rhetorician who can explain away mediocrity and lack of vision with impressive jargon.
Glass = 3/4 empty
I’m often reminded of the quote by Patton regarding his sentiments towards war: “God help me I love it so”
Good reminder, Craig. I hope we all already know this, but I know I get caught up sometimes, so it’s nice to listen to a voice of reason.
I expect the Browns to be trading down with either Dallas or SF, and then grabbing a QB with their pick. They’ll be doing whatever they can to convince Dallas that they will be taking the QB the Cowboys want.
https://45.media.tumblr.com/3d33306d8dd42d23866021713d9f3050/tumblr_n6fo43Ma7E1sgl0ajo1_500.gif