Looking for fruit on the Belichick tree: While We’re Waiting…
January 12, 2016Paul DePodesta’s real value is probably not “analytics” – WFNY Podcast Episode 447
January 12, 2016Many MLB experts have said this offseason that the Cleveland Indians boast one of the best starting rotations in baseball. Few think that they shouldn’t trade their key arms since they are both very good and very cheap. ESPN’s Buster Olney (insider only) believes that is true as well, as he ranks the Indians’ starting rotation second-best in MLB. Olney writes that the rankings are “based on input from evaluators around the league.”
One rival evaluator attached the Indians to the Mets in assessing what’s ahead of them in the next few years. “No matter what else happens, that starting pitching gives them a chance to win,” he said. “They might have holes in their lineup, but the pitching is their equalizer.”
Last season, Indians starters led the majors in strikeouts, averaging almost one per inning (969 in 979 1/3), and they held opponents to a .235 batting average, the lowest in the AL. Kluber had a strange, luckless year in 2015 after winning the Cy Young Award in 2014, and the Indians can reasonably expect that the 29-year-old will have a better season in 2016.
The difference between very good and great for the Indians’ rotation might be Bauer, who can drive teammates crazy with his inconsistency; he had 10 starts in which he allowed five or more earned runs, and 12 in which he allowed zero or one earned run. If Bauer takes another step forward — and the rotation stays relatively healthy — the Indians’ rotation could propel Cleveland to a postseason berth.
In 2015, the Indians rotation — Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, and Trevor Bauer, with Cody Anderson and Josh Tomlin among those in the No. 5 spot — had the 10th-best ERA in the league (3.94), fifth-most innings pitched (979.1), most strikeouts (969), and second-best batting average against (.235).
Corey Kluber, the 2014 Cy Young award winner, had a 3.49 ERA, struck out 245 batters, and logged 222 innings in 32 starts. Unfortunately for him, the 29-year-old didn’t get much run support and had just a 9-16 record in 2015. He signed an extension to stay in Cleveland for up to seven years at the start of the 2015 season.
Carrasco, like Kluber, signed a long-term extension to stay with the Indians at the start of the 2015 season. Cleveland’s No. 2 starter posted a 3.63 ERA with 216 strikeouts in 183.2 innings in 2015. He finished with a 14-12 record in 30 starts.
While Salazar posted the best record (14-10) and ERA (3.45) among Indians’ full-time starters all season, he was in the third slot in the rotation. The 26-year old totaled 195 strikeouts in 185 innings (30 starts).
The most inconsistent pitcher in the rotation, Bauer was un-hittable at times and dismal at other times. He accumulated an 11-12 record and 4.58 ERA while striking out 168 batters in 175 innings (30 starts).
Anderson and Tomlin, while taking turns in the No. 5 spot of the rotation, did a great job when they did start. Tomlin was 7-2 with a 3.02 ERA, while striking out 57 batters in 65.2 innings (10 starts). Anderson, meanwhile, had a 7-3 record with a 3.05 ERA and he struck out 44 batters in 91.1 innings (15 starts).
Olney’s top 10 rotations:
- New York Mets
- Cleveland Indians
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs
- San Francisco Giants
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Pittsburgh Pirtates
- Washington Nationals
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- Tampa Bay Rays
38 Comments
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why does this anger me? i fear we will lead the league in ERA yest have an offense near the bottom and continue to lose game 2-1 and 3-2. not impressed with the lineup additions – make a splash tribe. we may never see pitching like this ever again. dont waste it.
what’s odd if you look at the EOY stats the offense is right near league average in most of the key metrics, a few above or below league avg.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2015.shtml
Cool, now…. I feel like in addition to pitching there’s something else you need to do in baseball…hmm…..what could that be?
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This is what drives me crazy about this team. They are not far away, but have not done anything to improve their offense this off season.
One bat. One right handed power hitting bat alone would make such a difference. Maybe Napoli will help some but the difference when all is said and done could be the lack, again, of a legitimate right handed homerun hitter.
Unless some of the young OFs can take a big step. Zimmer and Frazier specifically. Bradley would be the ideal guy but that step would be huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge.
No pressure pitching just keep doing what you are doing with no slips at all!
Interestingly if the Mets aren’t able to bring back Cespedes they’ll be the NL version of the Indians. On the field.
Hot dogs. Baseball requires hot dogs. With mustard and onions.
Got you Fam….
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Nope, that mustard is way too yellow. I needs it brown. Disqualified.
Honestly hot dogs were my first thought.
I am so glad you mentioned the mustard color and not the ketchup.
SCREW THOSE HOT DOG ELITIST’S WHO THINK KETCHUP ON A HOT DOG IS A CRIME..I’LL PUT SO MUCH CATSUP ON A HOT DOG IT’LL MAKE YOUR HEAD SPIN JACK.
CATSUP DOGS ARE FOR THE MENTALLY UNBALANCED!!!
OH MAN… NOTHING BETTER THAN A CATSUP DOG RIGHT OUTTA THE MICROWAVE.
MICROWAVE CATSUP DOGS?!
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and they lost murphy
OHH SONNY…NOTHING IN THE WORLD LIKE A NICE MICROWAVE CATSUP DOG. WHERE THE HOTDOG IS NICE AND LEAN AND THE CATSUP IS RIPE.
THEY’RE SO PERKY, I LOVE THAT.
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Cue Steve with the “kill the right hand bat narrative” comment.
What will make the bigger difference in the win and loss columns are getting more timely hitting and pitching in high leverage spots. The Indians frankly sucked at those in 2015, on both sides of the ball, in fact the pitching was worse. Luckily, this is not a metric that has any predictive or carryover value.
Is it possible to uptick myself for getting this comment in like 0.35 seconds before Steve got his?
I wanna win the powerball and become a minority Indians owner just to sign Cespesdes.
Oh, and this was a vastly different defensive ball club with Lindor, Urshela and Chis on the field.
Except for, you know, getting the topic completely wrong.
But sure, kill the right hand bat narrative too. Since you want me to repeat myself, the Indians were better against LHP than RHP in 2015, and will get a healthier Gomes, and Napoli and Davis against them.
I’m actually concerned that the Indians might be worse against RHP in 2016 than 2015, and since you face RHP the majority of the time, a large part of any gain from those names mentioned above, or getting better sequencing, as mentioned below, will be neutralized.
DAMMIT STEVE, I thought I had it right.
For what it’s worth I’m in with you.
Fair enough. I’ve got no problem repeating myself, I just figured at this point we were all going in the same direction when it came to handedness. The next step is getting the sequencing thing right.
Where’s the ‘kraut? Kraut and a nice stadium mustard is all I need. I’ll add some relish if I’m feeling extra crazy.
Defense was atrocious for the first 80 games and probably just as much to blame. This includes the impact of Gomes being out.
Defense so bad first 80 games last year. Wasnt all on the hitting although that was defnintely a piece of the problem.
The ONLY acceptable ‘kraut…
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What is interesting to me is that the only other AL team in the top 10 is Tampa Bay. Tribe is very clearly modeled after the NL.
Don’t worry though, the analytics tell us we need hitters who walk more often. Power is overrated.
Is predictability an analytic?
Steve DePodesta!
I like chili on my dog and it’s not a sandwich!
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they added the platoons for Almonte (Rajai) and Chisenhall (Cowgill) in the OF. They added Mike Napoli (which moves Santana to DH to improve that spot).
I want a bigger move too, but these incremental moves will help. Whether or not they offset Brantley missing April (and possibly May) is the big question.
and Tampa is the other team needing to be competitive on shoestring budget. so, apparently, both teams believe cost-controlled dominant starting pitching is a good path.
Sure they have. They’ve taken PAs away from Bourn, Swisher, Aviles, and Moss – the four worst regulars in the 2015 lineup. The four combined for almost 50 runs below average at the plate. Getting halfway decent production out of Davis, Napoli, and Ramirez instead adds a very nice boost to the offense.
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Gotta get the dog from my man outside, then. Chili, kraut, mustard, onion. And for half the price.