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December 15, 2015Cavaliers Ride Big Two in Win Over Celtics: Behind the Box Score
December 15, 2015The Boston Celtics enter Tuesday night’s game against the Cavaliers with a 14-10 record, good for the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference. They finished in that same spot a year ago, but a seven seed in the Eastern Conference is a different animal this time around. A 40-42 record was enough for Boston to make the playoffs last season — as of Tuesday, 10 teams in the East had records over .500, and all but two have at least 10 wins.
The Celtics don’t have a starry roster, but they could be trending up. Though they’re just four games over .500, they have the league’s fifth best point differential and seventh best net rating, putting them above the likes of the Pacers, Raptors, and Clippers. They have nine wins by 15-plus points, more than all but the Spurs and Warriors. This isn’t to say that they’re a title contender or anything, but it could suggest that they’re better than one might think by looking at their roster. The question is, then, how is a team whose ho-hum starting lineup includes the likes of Jae Crowder and Jared Sullinger getting it done?
A look at Boston’s offensive numbers reveals a run-and-shoot approach. The C’s play one of the league’s fastest paces, on par with the Warriors and averaging six more possessions per game than the slowpoke Cavs. They fire up 28 threes per game, fewer than only Houston and Golden State.1 The only thing standing between them and being an offensive juggernaut is that the don’t shoot the thing all that well. They rank in the bottom third of the league in three-point and field goal percentage, they have the worst catch-and-shoot percentage this side of Philly, and they don’t draw many fouls.
The offense stays afloat thanks to its passing; the Celtics throw the sixth most passes per game. While the 21-5 Spurs rank first in that statistic, passing alone isn’t necessarily a harbinger of great success — the Knicks, Jazz, Mavericks, and putrid Sixers round out the top five in passes per game. The Celtics succeed because they make meaningful passes, in part because they have to. Aside from Isaiah Thomas they don’t have much in the way of one-on-one threats, thus they don’t play much iso ball. They’re fourth in the league in assists and trail only the Warriors in potential assists. Even when they miss, they’re setting up a ton of assist-worthy shots.
While they aren’t a group of deadeyes, a few Celtics are having unusually good shooting seasons, most notably Avery Bradley. To be blunt, the sixth-year man is playing out of his mind. He is attempting nearly six threes per game, easily the most of his career, and he’s sinking them at a career-best 43.1 percent rate; he made just over 35 percent last year. This isn’t a volume-plus-efficiency increase on par with that of Stephen Curry, but it’s eye-opening nonetheless. Bradley has improved his scoring output without committing more turnovers, and his 21.6 usage rating is almost identical to last year.
Another Celtic in the midst of a fine season is he who yearns for an apology, small forward Jae Crowder. Like Bradley, he is taking more threes than ever before (4.4 per game) and making them more often than he ever has (35.8 percent, 3.5 percent above his career average). Crowder’s $35 million contract extension signed this summer raised some eyebrows — quite a price tag for a player who had never averaged eight points per game — but he’s making Danny Ainge look smart. His numbers bumped up last year when he playing time in Boston (he was traded by Dallas midseason), and aside from turning it over a little more and rebounding a little less, he is holding form in 2015.
The play of Bradley and Crowder could be read as a ringing endorsement of head coach Brad Stevens’ tactics, or it could be a harbinger of regression to come. It is entirely possible that the two players are both hitting their NBA stride at age 25, or they could just be outkicking their coverage for now. Stay tuned.
Speaking of Stevens: his offensive sets aren’t otherworldly — though his out of bounds plays have drawn great admiration — but you can see plenty of pass-and-cut action designed to lose or confuse defenders. They like to get Isaiah Thomas the ball on the move, often leading into a pick and roll and/or to set up a drive and kick. Thomas isn’t a terribly efficient scorer, but he can work off the bounce, draw fouls, set up teammates, and generally do good things. Lots of screening and motion is a good way to get defenders out of sorts and set up those assist opportunities, for Thomas and others. Evan Turner is shooting terribly this year (14 percent on threes, 41 percent overall), but he has the chops to handle the ball when Thomas is out of the game or to provide a change of pace, as does Bradley.2
A big part of Boston’s success has to do with turnovers. They cough up the ball on about 15 percent of their possessions, better than over half the league. Thomas, their highest usage player, turns the ball over about nine percent of the time, an excellent number for someone who handles the ball as much as he does. (Bradley is generally safe with the ball as well.) On the other side, they force turnovers at a higher rate than any team in the league. Eighteen percent of opponents’ possessions end in turnovers, which is a major reason why the Celtics lead the league with 20.7 points off turnovers per game. They’re top 10 in fast break points, but their aforementioned “fast” pace is perhaps more a product of taking the ball from the opponent (10.7 steals per game) than a Seven-Seconds-Or-Less-style mania.
When Boston foes do hold on to the ball, the Celtics have done well in coaxing missed shots out of them. They rank in the top 10 in both defensive field goal percentage (43.2 percent) and defensive three-point percentage (32.9 percent). They aren’t great at protecting the rim — Oh no! It’s Tyler Zeller! — but they are allowing the second-lowest field goal percentage in the non-restricted part of the paint. They do well defending corner threes, those most alluring shots, especially from the right side. Put it all together and they have the league’s fourth best defensive rating, slotting them between the Bulls and Warriors.
All in all, there just aren’t many things that this team does poorly. They aren’t great on the boards — they rebound less than half of all missed shots — but they aren’t awful. Their aforementioned shooting isn’t overly impressive, but they get enough points from other places to balance it out. They foul a little more than one might like, but it doesn’t kill them. It’s basic stuff that makes them a good team. They move the ball well and make it hard for their opponents to do the same. They’re a solid basketball team comprised of solid basketball players. Consider that 15.0 is defined as average for PER.3 The Celtics have eight players above that mark. They play a bunch of guys, and most of them are at least decent. Turns out that’s a decent formula.
This team is better than last year, and it’s going to be in the playoff picture by the end of the season. With the rights to Brooklyn’s unprotected first-round pick, a bunch of movable contracts, and the always-dealing Danny Ainge, they have plenty of avenues to getting better, if not necessarily this season. Does that mean they’re going to beat the Cavs tonight?
Psh, hell naw. Cavs by 50.
2 Comments
Stevens has done a tremendous job with a lot of spare parts. I’m excited to see what he can do if he ever gets an All-Star!