Browns announce that Johnny Manziel will start vs. 49ers
December 8, 2015Break the Jinx: Blazers-Cavs, Behind the Box Score
December 8, 2015If you want to win games in the NFL you have to out-play and out-score your opponent. Football can be a complex game but not as much as some let on. Out-playing your opponent boils down to out-running him or overpowering him. It involves the mastering of some basic fundamentals that help players block and tackle more effectively than their opponents.
Football is not espionage or guerrilla warfare. There are very few secrets in this game. Coaches can make a difference at the margins, but generally speaking, better players win games over lesser ones. Nothing reveals this simple fact more starkly than what happens when offensive and defensive lines confront one another. In the Bengals’ 37-3 thumping of the Browns on Sunday the Cincinnati offensive line opened holes for its runners and kept the Browns defenders a nice safe distance from their quarterback. When the Browns had possession of the ball, the Bengals defensive line shoved the Browns blockers back or ran around them or out-maneuvered them all afternoon, harassing Browns quarterback Austin Davis, sacking him or just putting a lick on him as he was releasing the ball. They also stuffed the Browns running game for all but a few respectable gains.
The 2015 Bengals are a very good team, 10-2 at this point in the season, but this kind of scene, wherein the Browns are simply no match for their opponents in the trenches, has been replayed over and over in almost every one of their games this year.
Elsewhere on the field, the contrast between the defensive backfields of the Bengals and the Browns revealed more of what the Cleveland team lacks. It’s a familiar sight for those who have been watching the Browns for any length of time. Browns receivers, when they make a catch, often do so in tight quarters or in a crowd. You can sometimes see it in their body language when, as they make a catch, they flinch, expecting to get hit as the ball arrives. The opponent’s receivers by comparison are often roaming in open pasture, and you find yourself saying in unison with the TV announcers, “wide open.”
Browns defensive backs in recent years have often looked overmatched. Far too often on long passes, they are not in position to look back for the ball as it’s in the air. That seems to be the least of their concerns. Just keeping up is about all they’re hoping for.
This is not to disparage any individual player in the NFL. Every one is among the best in the country, about 2,000 out of the tens of thousands who have pursued the dream of playing in the NFL. But when one player lines up across from another, the better athlete will win most of the battles. And it is those few, select blue-chip players who more often than not have the most impact on the game.
Go back to 1999 and look at the draft picks of the Cleveland Browns and see how many elite players they’ve managed to acquire. On occasion their tosses of the dart at the draft board hit a target (usually with offensive linemen), but with such infrequency, they seem no better than accidental. Unfortunately, one of the facts of life in the NFL is that those blue chippers are more often than not found in the first round or two. More than any other factor, the Browns failure to acquire top-tier players has left them uncompetitive. Go through the Browns current roster and ask yourself, how many of these players are among the best in the league?
Certain positions are more dependent on the support of other players, most notably the position of quarterback. Without a capable offensive line no quarterback can thrive. Likewise, running backs can accomplish very little without a few holes punched into the opposition’s wall of defenders. The most impactful positions on the field are those which come down to dominance in one-on-one matchups: defensive linemen, especially those who have significant responsibility for rushing the passer; linebackers, the best of whom are so fast and strong they cannot be thwarted; and cornerbacks who can match up with the biggest and best of the wide receivers and at least stay close.
On the offensive side of the ball, the wide receivers who are among the biggest and speediest in the league can be the most potent of weapons. They almost always win the one-on-one matchups, so most teams put one-and-a-half or two bodies on the Calvin Johnsons, Antonio Browns, and Julio Joneses of the league.
Ernie Accorsi, former General Manager of the Baltimore Colts, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants, was interviewed on Cleveland radio recently. Accorsi, who was hired last month by the Detroit Lions to consult with them on the hiring of a new GM, was asked about his basic principles for building a team. He cited three building blocks: quarterback, a dominant pass rusher and a dominant deep threat at wide receiver. It’s hard to argue with this short list, but as mentioned, the pass rusher and wide receiver are not as dependent on those around him as is the quarterback. J.J. Watt would probably flourish with the Browns. Tom Brady would not.
In the Browns most recent draft in 2015, they selected 12 players. Eleven are still on the roster. Only Vince Mayle, one of their two fourth-round picks, failed to make the team and, after a brief stint on the Cowboys roster, is now out of the NFL. It’s far too early for final grades on the 2015 class, but, for now at least, there don’t appear to be any blue chippers among the group. Once the red-shirted cornerback, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, gets an opportunity to play in 2016, the 2015 draft’s grades will be closer to complete.
Five of the six 2014 draft picks (Terrance West being the exception) are still on the roster, including starter Joel Bitonio. Blue chippers? None in sight. Will the two number ones, Gilbert and Manziel, even be with the team for the 2016 season? If not, only Christian Kirksey and Pierre Desir would remain.
Right now, then, 16 players are on the roster from the last two drafts. Eleven rookies and five second-year players. That part of the roster makes this a young team. If most of those players can stick, their maturation and experience can improve the team, even without a superstar among them. But can they stick and will they improve?
The remaining active players obtained prior to the 2014 draft are a sad commentary on the Browns roster building. 2013 first rounder (No. 6 overall) Barkevious Mingo and seventh rounder Armonty Bryant are still on the team. In 2012, the Browns picked 11 players. Both first rounders (Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden) are long gone. Only Mitchell Schwartz and Travis Benjamin are still on the team.
Who else is left? No one from among the eight players drafted in 2011, only Joe Haden from the eight players selected in the 2010 draft, only Alex Mack from the eight selected in the 2009 draft, no one from the five selected in 2008, and, from the 2007 draft, only Joe Thomas remains.
If the Browns are going to get better, they have to draft more effectively. They especially need to hit on those first-round picks. They especially need more blue chippers at those important, individual playmaker positions on both offense and defense. And yet, the truth about success in football lies in the collective success of those groups in the trenches, the linemen. Filling those needs — and balancing them — is the great challenge for the NFL’s general managers.
The Browns also have to refine what kind of players are best suited for each position. For example, given what the team has attempted to do lately at the wide receiver position (short of actually drafting one high) they at least seem to be acknowledging that bigger is better, even if Dwayne Bowe offers no evidence to support the theory. The same holds true for the Browns approach to the quarterback position. Johnny Manziel may get more opportunities this season to play QB in brown and orange, but everyone waiting in the wings, and everyone the Browns are likely to consider for the job in the near future, will be a lot closer to the current NFL prototype than the Fran Tarkenton model.
If you could wish upon a falling star you’d probably like to see Terrelle Pryor blossom by next year into an explosive wide receiver and join Josh Gordon to form a dual threat of the big and fast. But the Browns need more than fortunate accidents and Jiminy Cricket in the front office to produce something with their wish lists. They need top-notch player evaluations. They need some blue chippers in brown and orange. They have to stop swinging and missing.
35 Comments
Transcript from Farmer’s Nov 2015 press conference:
“The same way I have written the script already. You have to try to do
things a little bit differently have historically have done them. You
can’t follow the same road map and get to a different destination. In my
mind it comes down to we do things a little bit differently than people
have done historically. With no risk comes no reward. It doesn’t mean
we are going to be without bumps in the road. It doesn’t mean we aren’t
going to struggle. There are bumps. There are turns. It comes down to
where inevitably we have to find a way to write the right end to the
movie. That is something we are going to have to focus on and bring to
fruition on our own.”
Odds of first round draft picks going bust:
http://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/
The Browns, and Farmer, are way behind the odds, based on 50 years of data, granted, before 2012. They are taking too many risks. Instead of paying the mortgage, they are trying to hit the lottery, and that is a losers bet.
Trying to prove you are smarter then everyone else is what has haunted the drafting with this team since it’s return.
I would love to see a compiled list of all the Browns draft picks or at least the first three rounds since 1999. This franchise is built on a horrible foundation of terrible drafting. The amazing part is how many different front office’s are to blame not to mention not one, not two but three different owners.
just draft buckeyes , dammit !!
gee , i wonder if we should try sticking with someone for more than 2 years ?? … has anyone ever thought of that ? … maybe we should try it.
in the words of aaron rodgers … “r-e-l-a-x” … stick with farmer one more year & it will pay-off … then maybe some of you with feel absolutely horrible about crackin’ on ray … one more year , trust me … *smile*.
“They need top-notch player evaluations.”
Before they evaluate players I think they need to put a person in place with 100% authority to build the team who has a track record to indicate he knows how to do that and without interference from ANYONE else except to answer for wins and losses.
Also, the priority has to be wins on the field, not wins in the box office. All the $ wins will follow the on-field wins.
They have that didn’t work either. But in order to have a second year your first must demonstrate at least some success in your first year. Farmer’s first draft has been a disaster and on top of that look at his free agent signings as well as timing of decisions. He has failed at literally every turn. He is the weakest link therefore he be gone!
Or how about hiring a president who has a track record when it comes to hiring people who will actually evaluate, draft and sign players?
I may not have articulated it quite so but YES.
Thought Hooley made a very good case for Rick Spielman yesterday.
I’ve heard his name mentioned by someone else. Other then his last name I don’t know much about him.
Sorry TB2 but I have to agree with the leprechaun here. Farmer has shown no reason whatsoever to assume a third year will produce positive results. This is very frustrating as I’m a proponent of continuity but as Sham said, you have to earn the right to continue.
http://espn.go.com/espnradio/play?id=14276793
http://media.veryfunnypics.eu/2013/08/funny-picture-i-wish-to-win-the-lottery.jpg
That quote is remarkable. It is just a latticework of empty metaphors which, together, say nothing. Sure, most politicians and corporate types are skilled at this type of filibustering, but they at least have some semblance of rational thought and gravitas underlying their rhetoric. This is just meandering nonsense, offered at a time when substantive, reflective answers were urgently needed. This is the type of mind that produces incoherent drafts/rosters
Good podcast! Thanks!
Just listen to Farmer’s preposterous press conferences. At least Mike Pettine does sound intelligent. The Browns have yet to have a competent person running a draft since they returned. Turn THAT around and we could turn this team around.
Don’t make me have to post an analysis of the 2014 draft. 6 picks….8, 22, 83, 106, 145, 180……brought ZERO. Check the “couldas” with each of those picks. We coulda….been a contender this year. Easy.
hi TRS … i’d be willing to bet farmer is here next year.
what does “sounding intelligent” have to do with being a good GM … and who looks more competent right now , farmer or pettine ?
hi SAM , that is fine … do you think farmer improved on his 2nd draft from his first ? … i think he will continue to improve if given time. and i fully believe farmer will be here next year.
… and when have we stuck with a GM or coach for more than 2 years since 1999 ?
hi CIRCA … did farmer improve on his 2nd draft compared to his first ?
hi SAM … spielman is a fine specimen … 1) i don’t think he’d leave the vikings to come here and 2) and of the 7 drafts he has overseen , there have been some fine players drafted & there have also been high picks invested in guys like s.rice , harvin , ponder , c.patterson , x.rhodes etc. … so yes , other GM’s make mistakes as well … even the good ones. and how many losing seasons did spielman have to endure until recently ?
hi TRS … and just who is that guy & would he even entertain coming to cleveland ?
acorsi’s method doesn’t work without being good in the trenches on both sides of the ball … didn’t we kinda try his way , spending high draft picks on couch , c.brown & k.johnson ? the high draft picks should’ve been spent on O-line & D-line & then go from there.
Found this response to a similar argument you’re making over on OBR. It is a very solid support of your perspective:
“If the Browns are so terribly bereft of talent, its because of the constant turnover of coaches and personnel staffs that ALWAYS changeout the roster. Always. Regardless of what they say, they changeout the roster.
“The new guy comes in and puts in schemes that don’t fit the talent and then they start replacing good players for other players the new guy believes fits his scheme better. If the previous GM is fired the determination has to be he did a crap job so all the players need refreshed.
“The problem is, if coaching is suspect then the talent evaluation is polluted. So I think the Browns should get a staff in here that can coach and has sound schemes. Someone who will use the talent he has instead of making them try to fit a favored scheme that they insist must be played and with loses until the players are obtained.
“That doesn’t mean Farmer is gold. It means his fate waits until we have a good staff and we can see for sure who lacks talent and who was victimized by poor coaching and poor schemes.
“I think Williams is pretty good corner. All corners get beat, but go get a corner YOU think is good and obtainable and then let him run around for a game with no pass rush and safeties that don’t show up on time and see how he does.
“Players are clearly confused out there and that includes Pro Bowl level players who have all suddenly looked clueless under this staff.
“I seek more efficiency in the changeover. A reset of both the FO and Coaching at the same time resets the roster again and two years into the inevitable 3-5 year plan we will start in year one of another 3-5 year plan.
“Besides, with this owner, no powerful and excellent GM will come here. He’s going to just elevate Kuharick who has been part and parcel to the acquisitions made.
“The problem I see it is Pettine because they have catered to his desires. A hell of a lot of available personnel moves and money have been directed at his defense and they have just gotten worse. Starks can still play. So can Williams. So can Haden.
“Just not for this staff.
“Slow the roll. Get the coaching right. Once you have a good staff you can more clearly see what you do and don’t have.
“But, unless Haslam allows some FA spending, more than he has, these drafts will continue be need driven drafts so don’t expect top talent to come real soon. I don’t care who the GM is, if he has to fill 4 holes with his 4 top picks, he has to make compromises based on who will be available. He has to trade down to get extra picks which means he lets very talented players at positions other than what he has to target go by.
“I think that’s a big part of what you have been seeing in the drafts.
“And don’t forget, you’ve only seen Farmer work one draft with his processes and procedures in place. To the extent that he can make the decision.
“I’ve convinced myself that Pettine has a very large say in who has been drafted these last two years. I think he’s in that room as an equal of Farmer.”
The argument Hooley makes, which I agree with, is that Spielman has already taken the lumps Farmer has taken and will take but where we hope Farmer learns from his mistakes Spielman has clearly shown he has learned. Additionally, Spielman dealt with a number of challenging issues successfully aside from just player evaluation. He is the embodiment of the youngish, hungry executive with a solid track record ready to take the final step as a fb ops czar and build the entire product from the ground up. Unlike a Holmgren or Polian or Accorsi or similar who have already had Hall of Fame careers and the fire is questionable, a Spielman might be enticed away from his current situation with the promise of total ops control and some kind of guarantee that his word is law (no interference).
thanks SAM … this isn’t the whole story , but is an excellent overview that most impatient browns fans cannot comprehend . i hope everyone over here on WFNY reads this.
not a single regime since 1999 has been afforded a 3-5 year plan … it’s not that i think ray farmer is a great GM , i think he should be given a fair chance (3-5 years) & then we can judge the man … same goes for pettine.
thanks again …
good post …
Uh…..not really. Just read a good piece on 1st round 2015 draft at…..NFL.com or PPF……..can’t remember. I’d say Farmer got another D on the first round and so far, I see no Bitonio and then he FINALLY deigns to draft a WR and ……..well, we know what happened there. Our bet is on, TB. I could have a contest: pick the date Ray is fired. I’m guessing the Monday morning after our last game.
Oh, Pettine. Imagine if Farmer was out there giving press conferences every week. The laughs would be rolling in. Maybe Jimmy backs up some truck of money in front of Ozzie’s door………hmmmmm..
I’d be good with Spielman or Caserio, I’d be surprised if you could get them here. They are both in pretty good situations.
I think the only way is to dangle a carrot too big to ignore: total ops control; here’s your empire, come build it.
We should also look at how many players from any of those drafts are still in the league on somebody else’s team. Maybe not blue chips, but solid contributors. The constant turnover wastes draft picks.