Buckeyes blackout Penn State: The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly
October 20, 2015“What the hell am I doing?” Brian Miser and the life of a human cannonball
October 20, 2015The 2015 College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee made waves when Ohio State rose in the final rankings to displace a TCU Horned Frog team who not only dropped behind the Buckeyes but also behind a Baylor Bears team whom they had been slotted ahead for several weeks. The committee merely noted each week was a new process and the resumes would be compared based on what had been completed. So, the Buckeyes rose with their B1G championship victory over the formidable Wisconsin Badgers leaving TCU to fall helplessly despite their own victory over the hapless Iowa State Cyclones.
The principle of looking at the resume of college football teams and ranking them only based on what they have done seems simple enough. However, human biases based on name recognition, preseason expectations, and especially recent history have a way of allowing gaudy records from big-name universities to influence where the AP and Coaches polls tend to navigate. The CFP Selection Committee did an admirable job balancing their thoughts through the process in the first year, and it will be interesting to see if they can continue moving forward.
But, why let the CFP team have all the fun? The simplest way of removing human bias from a ranking system is to create a formulaic process to create the rankings. The CFP Selection Committee was formed in order to ensure certain teams or conferences did not find a way to exploit flaws in any given formula as some believe happened during the BCS era.1 However, I doubt any team or conference is going to go to great lengths to exploit these particular rankings.
As such, WFNY compiled a list of all of the Power Five conference teams2 which have two or fewer losses along with all of the Group of Five conference teams3 who have remained undefeated. These 41 football teams are the teams left vying for one of the four spots in the College Football Playoff. The Toledo Rockets (6-0) made the list, while the Oregon Ducks (4-3) did not. Many of the two-loss teams have built their records playing soft out of conference (OOC) schedules (see: NC State) and will likely fall off these rankings and hurt the teams who currently have received bonus points for defeating them. However, it is not the object here to predict future results.
For transparency, here is how these rankings were created.
Wins were separated into four categories:
- Victories over teams from any FCS4 or Group of Five conference5 team with records .500 or worse (+1)
- Victories over teams from Group of Five conferences with records better than .500 (+2)
- Victories over teams from Power Five conferences with records .500 or worse (+2)
- Victories over teams from Power Five conferences with records better than .500 (+3)
Bonuses were then given for the following four categories:
- Victories over one-loss teams from Group of Five conferences (+2)
- Victories over two-loss teams from Group of Five conferences (+1)
- Victories over one-loss teams from Power Five conferences (+4)
- Victories over two-loss teams from Power Five conferences (+2)
Points were then taken away for the following three categories:
- Losses to two-loss or better teams from Group of Five conferences or above .500 team from Power Five conferences (-1)
- Losses to above .500 Group of Five conferences team or below .500 Power Five conferences team (-2)
- Losses to below .500 Group of Five conferences team or FCS team (-3)
What these rankings do not take into account:
- Home, Away, Neutral field
- Point Differential
- Head-to-head results (unless points were tied)
- Remaining schedule or prediction of future results
As the season progresses, the bonus structure will alter to reflect the maturity of the season. By season’s end, the current one-loss and two-loss bonuses will be indicative of victories over three-loss and four-loss teams and there will be more prominent bonuses for victories over one-loss and two-loss teams (as having one loss in the middle of October is not nearly as impressive as having one loss into December). Also, there will be a bonus for winning a conference championship (a noted indicator in the CFP selection process).
Current College Football Playoff Participants
Iowa Hawkeyes:
The Iowa Hawkeyes ride a leading three victories over two-loss teams (Northwestern, Wisconsin, Illinois) combined with another victory over a one-loss team (Pittsburgh) to the strongest current resume in college football. Looking ahead to their future schedule, it will be tough for the resurgent Kirk Ferentz team to remain in the top spot as their schedule was decidedly front-loaded. Additionally, the Hawkeyes have banked their points for seven games where many teams that follow have only played six. But, for now, the Hawkeyes top the list.
LSU Tigers:
Despite posting a weak OOC schedule6 , the LSU Tigers rise to the second spot by virtue of winning against a tough conference schedule. Victories of two-loss Mississippi State and Auburn combined with the a victory over one-loss Florida propelled the Tigers near the top.
Utah Utes:
Utah holds the same third spot in these rankings as they do in the AP (currently 7th in the Coaches poll). The Utes are the first team in these rankings to post most of their bonus points from outside their conference. Utah took wins over the two-loss Michigan Wolverines and Utah State Aggies along with a victory over the Cal Bears.
Alabama Crimson Tide:
The Alabama Crimson Tide rise to the last CFP position despite several undefeated teams behind them in the rankings. Their loss to Ole Miss was sufficiently negated with victories over two-loss Wisconsin, Georgia, and Texas A&M. At least, presently.
Next Four
Clemson Tigers: Victories over one-loss Notre Dame and Appalachian State loom large.
Florida Gators: The third SEC team in the top six, Florida has victories over East Carolina, Ole Miss, and Georgia to thank for its current position.
Northwestern Wildcats: Fans of the B1G might be a bit shocked to see two-loss Northwestern ahead of undefeated giants Ohio State and Michigan State. However, while supposedly big early wins over Virginia Tech and Oregon respectively have shown to not mean nearly as much, the Wildcats victories over Stanford and Duke look even more impressive as the season wears on. With back-loaded schedules, the Buckeyes and Spartans will get their chance to overtake the Wildcats soon.
TCU Horned Frogs: Despite starting the season with seven straight victories, the Horned Frogs opponents have lost far too often for TCU to rise any further than here.
Here is the full table:
- The SEC intelligently scheduling some big conference games early in the year set themselves up regardless of the outcome. [↩]
- B1G, SEC, ACC, BigXII, and Pac12 [↩]
- Group of Five conference teams are those outside the Power Five conferences including the American, MAC, C-USA, MWC, and Sun Belt. [↩]
- Football Championship Subdivision [↩]
- Notre Dame and BYU were considered Power Five conference teams [↩]
- Though that will change when LSU plays Group of Five stalwart Western Kentucky this weekend. [↩]
9 Comments
Very interesting. I look forward to seeing the results as the season progresses.
This is why we must prevent a Skynet from ever happening!!!
http://www.gifmania.co.uk/Movies-Cinema-Animated-Gifs/Animated-Science-Fiction-Movies/Terminator/terminator-35175.gif
not bad, man. I think Iowa is a deserving team – maybe not of being in the playoff, but of respect by whomever they play. I said it before and I’ll say it again: the B1G is back. In my opinion, it’s the deepest conference in the country. The SEC has had their spell, but they’re down. It’s only a matter of time before people realize that Texas A&M is overrated.
Yeah, glad I started this week. Hawkeyes might not be there next.
These computers obviously don’t understand the gravity of the history that is taking place this year.
State University of Ohio is fielding the greatest team in the history of college football.
Buuuut, since they have 2 QBs, they are actually the 2 greatest teams ever.
So, the chart should actually look like this:
JT Buckeyes – 218
Cardale Buckeyes – 216
All-American First Team – 1
Everybody else – 0
Pfffft, stupid computers.
You are way behind here, my friend. Computers think several steps ahead. They apparently set the stage so that when the Buckeyes beat the Hawkeyes in the B1G championship, they can say the Bucks defeated the “previously top-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes” Sure, the computer doesn’t care about what rank a team was previously, but it can still be said.
The computer is obviously not thinking enough steps ahead, because if it did, it would realize that the greatness of the buckeyes renders all other teams superfluous, and therefore places them in the null set, thereby removing them from the equation altogether. Their results are de minimis and therefore don’t matter.
The All-American Team is there only because a third spot had to be filled in order to complete an sample size of acceptable quantity.
The third slot would actually be the Braxton buckeyes if Super-Genius Urban chose to play him at QB.
Well, the computer might have been paid off by ESPN to keep hope alive with the other teams. Ratings = $$$ after all.
But, it’s a tough sell when other teams do things like gift-wrap game-ending punts for touchdowns to the opponent.
The Four Letter has been infiltrated by buckeyes. It’s all part of the SUO plan to dominate on and off the field. Hope? Meh.
Botched punts? The mighty buckeyes do not concern themselves with the pitiful struggles of the rabble below them.