Free agent TE Rob Housler to visit Browns
April 8, 2015What impact do these contract extensions have on the Cleveland Indians?
April 8, 2015With the month of April finally here, we are just a couple more weeks till the beginning of the 2015 NFL Draft. Over the last many weeks, I examined every position in the NFL Draft except for one. Today, I will look at the top quarterbacks in the upcoming draft. Here were my top five quarterbacks from last year’s draft.
The quarterback is the most important player in football and so the interest in all these players is always higher then other positions. This year’s class of quarterbacks is not great. There are two top quarterbacks and then the rest of the class is a mash of players with talent, but in need of work. Browns fans should definitely keep an eye on the quarterbacks, because the team is expected to be in the market for one of these players. So, let’s take a look at my top five quarterbacks in the 2015 NFL Draft.
1. Jameis Winston, Florida State
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Florida State’s Jameis Winston has really solidified himself as the number one pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. As a redshirt sophomore last season in 13 games, he completed 65.3 percent of his passes (305 of 467) with 3,907 yards, 25 touchdowns and 18 interceptions, along with 65 yards rushing and three rushing touchdowns. He is my number one rated quarterback in this year’s draft.
Winston has great presence in the pocket with the ability to sense the rush and move around to create more time to throw. He has underrated elusiveness paired with his strong 6-foot-4, 231-pound frame that is extremely hard to bring down. Winston has the ability to make plays when things break down around him. He has a very strong arm with the ability to make every NFL throw. His strong arm allows him to be a very dangerous deep ball thrower with the ability to drop his passes in stride of his receivers (as you can see below). He throws with great anticipation to allow receivers to run after the catch and not allow defenders to break on the ball. Winston is an extremely smart quarterback with the ability to scan the field and go through his progressions. His leadership is one of his best traits with the capability to have all his teammates follow his lead. He is probably the only real NFL ready quarterback in the draft. ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. says, “Winston has a savvy football mind and great physical talent, with special pocket instincts and the necessary vision, size, arm strength and athleticism.”
Winston’s biggest question mark is off the field. He has been involved in numerous incidents that really have put his character into question. He must show that he can be a professional and not continue being involved in these off the field incidents. On the field, he is not technically sound all the time. He can occasionally get sloppy and throw off his back foot, which hurts his ability to put power on the pass. His accuracy is also inconsistent, leading to him missing targets or getting intercepted. For a smart player, he does some ill-advised things. He has trouble sometimes seeing defenders underneath, which allows them to go under his pass and pick him off. He definitely needs to improve on his ball security and limit his interceptions. But, Winston has all the talent and football IQ to be a very good franchise quarterback in the NFL.
2. Marcus Mariota, Oregon
Oregon’s Marcus Mariota is one of the best athletes at the quarterback position to come out of the draft in recent years. As a redshirt junior last season in 15 games, he was 68.3 percent passer (304 of 445) with 4,454 yards, 42 touchdowns and just four interceptions, while also adding 770 yards and 15 touchdowns on the ground in 135 rushing attempts. He is a player who may need a year in the NFL before he contributes on the field, but I believe he can be just as good as Winston.
Mariota is a great athlete that gives him the dual threat ability at the quarterback spot. The 6-foot-4, 222-pound quarterback has speed and elusiveness to make defenders miss. Along with his athletic ability, he also has a good arm to make every NFL throw. He has a knack to change ball speeds based on where he is throwing the ball. He can add zip to his pass to fit through tight windows or put loft on his pass to drop it over defenders. He has solid accuracy with a very good ability to throw while on the run. Due in part to his athleticism, he has great ability to evade pressure and complete passes. He throws very accurately towards the middle of the field (as you can see below). He is a smart quarterback with very good work ethic and leadership. Unlike Winston, he has no character questions, showing professionalism on and off the field. NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah says, “Marcus Mariota is going to take a little bit of time, but what you have is somebody who has the skill set necessary to succeed at the next level. I know he played in this spread offense, but when you study him on tape, you’ll see examples of him working from left to right, full-field reads. You’ll see him make all the throws.”
Mariota must improve on his accuracy to succeed at the next level. He can miss wide open players at times and he does not have great ball placement. His footwork will need work, especially being from a shotgun system in college. The system conversion will take time, especially in terms of a reading through progressions in the NFL. He has the propensity to sometimes throw across his body, which is not something a quarterback should do. He also needs to improve his pocket presence, getting the ball out quicker. But, he has the physical skills along with the intelligence to develop into a franchise NFL quarterback.
3. Brett Hundley, UCLA
Brett Hundley of UCLA is another quarterback who will need time to develop in the NFL. As a redshirt junior last season in 13 games, he completed 69.1 percent of his passes (271 of 392) with 3,155 yards, 22 touchdowns and five interceptions, along with 644 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. I believe he can be a very good starting quarterback in the NFL.
Hundley has the size at 6-foot-3, 226-pounds along with athleticism. He can make things happen with his feet, with the ability to break tackles with strength and elusiveness. His fluid feet allow him to shuffle in the pocket to gain space to make a throw. He is a smart player with the ability to span the field and go through his progressions (as you can see in the video below). Hundley has a good arm with the ability to make every NFL throw. His accuracy is pretty good, with the ability to zip the ball or loft it in over the coverage. He has a quick release to get the ball out fast. He also has good character and leadership to be the franchise player for a team. NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein says, “Hundley is a “flash” prospect who shows the physical tools to be a starter, but his internal clock and issues with reads and progressions must be improved to give him a shot at becoming a decent NFL starter.”
Hundley’s must work on his consistency in order to be a starting caliber quarterback in the NFL. He needs to be more consistent in using his legs to throw, which will help him be more accurate and powerful on throws. Even though he is pretty accurate, he does not throw with much anticipation. His technique can break down when he is under pressure. Hundley is very slow in the pocket in terms of his mental clock and reading his progressions. He holds onto the ball way too long and does not sense pressure very well. His accuracy down field is another area he must work on. He must also learn the footwork of being under center, which he did not do much in college. But, I believe a lot of the problems he had in college was due to the lack of talent around him (especially on the offensive line) and that he will be a better pro then college player.
4. Garrett Grayson, Colorado State
Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson is a small college quarterback with upside to play in the NFL. As a senior last season in 13 games, he completed 64.3 percent of his passes (270 of 420) with 4,006 yards, 32 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He has the arm talent to make it in the NFL.
Grayson has a good arm with good use of his lower body to drive through the ball. He throws a very good deep ball with the ability to throw it with accuracy (as you can see in the video below). He has overall good accuracy on his passes to every level of the field. Grayson is a solid athlete with the ability to evade rushers in the pocket and find space to set and throw the ball. He has solid height with a sturdy body at 6-foot-2, 213-pounds. He has the ability to survey the field and run through his progressions to find the open receiver. He has the experience playing under center and in shotgun situations. Charlie Campbell of Walterfootball.com says, “What appeals to teams about Grayson the most is the ability to be a pocket passer. He can drop back, work through his progressions and deliver some accurate passes. Grayson does a nice job of avoiding the rush and keeping his eyes downfield. He also has a strong arm that can make all the throws.”
Grayson is a player from a smaller school, who has not played the highest level of opponents. He has not faced much pressure in the pocket, so he can occasionally hold onto the ball because of his reliance on the blocking. He is sometimes too slow to move through progressions, keying on one receiver too long. To add to his occasional slow decision making, he also has a long release which causes him to release the ball slower than most. His accuracy is good, but he does not anticipate throws well, waiting for receivers to turn toward him before releasing the ball. He can also have spurts throughout the game, when he can become inaccurate with his passes. But, Grayson has the skillset to be able to play in the NFL.
5. Bryce Petty, Baylor
Bryce Petty of Baylor could have the strongest arm in the entire 2015 NFL Draft. As a senior last season in 12 games, he was a 63.1 percent passer (270 of 428) with 29 touchdowns and seven interceptions, along with 101 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. He is a player, who has the physical tools to be an NFL starting quarterback.
Petty has a very strong arm with the ability to make every throw on the field (as you can see in the video below). The ball explodes out of his hands with ease. He has more zip on his throws than most quarterbacks have. His throwing motion looks like he is throwing with no effort. His arm strength allows him to hardly ever underthrow a deep ball, giving only his receiver a chance to catch the ball. He has pretty good athleticism to make plays with his legs. He can elude defenders and extend the play to find someone open. He is a leader with good character to be the face of the franchise. NFL Network’s Mike Mayock says, “He might be the most natural thrower of the football in this entire draft … I really think he’s got starter physical traits … I think (a quarterback-needy team is) going to have to take that third quarterback somewhere in the second round, and it could be Bryce Petty.”
Petty does not use his legs or feet very well while throwing. He sometimes does not drive his legs through the pass, using just his upper body to throw passes. He could add more power and accuracy if he used his legs more. He has average accuracy because of his propensity to just throw with his upper body. Even though he has a big arm, he does not throw the deep ball accurately. His feet can get too stagnant in the pocket and he does not have experience dropping back from under center, which is an area he must work on. These flaws make him struggle versus pressure. He was in a one read offense, so he does not have the experience or skill to read the field. He will also need to work on his anticipation in throwing to receivers. But, his physical skills make him a very interesting player who teams will look to work with even with the major flaws.
27 Comments
QB…ugh. Not one (Other than Jameis…and Grayson) has ever played under center.
No “outside the top 5” from me. I’ll pass on them all.
I still say our starting QB is sitting on the bench in KC.
I think we can score him with the right offer. And I don’t think it’ll have to be a bank-buster.
Read a rumor yesterday that team is still in talks with Philly on a trade that would send a first round pick + Manziel to Eagles for Bradford. Eagles would then in turn package to move up to try to get Mariota. Like I said it’s a rumor with the obvious hiccup being Bradford signing an extension.
I agree on not wanting to draft any of the QBs listed however.
I have Hundley on my “do not draft” list, but the real intrigue to me is Petty v. Grayson. Petty has the quick release, Grayson has the accuracy. Both have good arms and questions about their college play (Petty-system, Grayson-SOS).
I think I would bet on Grayson, but can easily be convinced that whiplike release for Petty could wind up being the difference (he does play a bit like a Joe Flacco).
None of the lower level guys excite me much either. Connor Shaw may wind up benefiting from a relatively weak class.
If we want to 7th round or UDFA a guy with a ton of upside (and work), then we could do worse than Cody Fajardo.
You are making a trade or sticking with the M&M boys – book it.
Why not invite Kevin Burk as an UDFA? 😀
Every team needs an OTA arm, and he would make a great local story along with being better than having Tyler Thigpen associated with the team. Sure, why not.
I completely disagree with you on Hundley. I see some things that I really like about (vision of the field and physical tools). Hundley had a horrible offensive line along with a lot of drops from his WRs. I like Grayson, too. Good accuracy especially his deep ball. I am not as high on Petty. His accuracy, vision of the field, and lower body technique are just not good. Arm is great though.
Agree on Grayson. Agree on Petty w/ caveat that technique is footwork as his release is sharp. He will be a great case study in what matters in the NFL (arm/release v. everything else) or he’ll be an outlier that we will try to make work as a case study.
Hundley, I loved in 2012 and saw the raw tools and thought with another year or two of seasoning that he would be special. But, he is the same QB today that he was at that time.
Despite the stats, he really can struggle with his accuracy especially middle of the field. If he faces any pressure, then he is looking to run only and will miss wide open guys who are not far off him or he just falls down and takes the sack (very often). I know QBs stats fall off under pressure, but some QBs you can see panic on the field. Hundley is one of those guys.
He is one of the guys I saw early and wanted him to be good. He never got better and I assume he’ll be drafted in round 2 or 3 and want no part of him there. He could be good eventually under the right mentorship as you mention he has the tools. But, I do not believe that he is anywhere near ready to start (nor does Mora, his coach) and we all know that he would be thrown into the fire sooner rather than later with us.
“I don’t know that he’s ready to go in and start in the NFL,” Mora said on NFL Network’s broadcast of the Bruins’ annual pro day event. “I think if he can find the right situation where he can go in and learn and have a couple years to work on his craft”
I do agree with you that he needs time and that his pocket presence is real big issue. Just think he has the makeup, tools, and IQ to be a starting QB.
Then, we pretty much agree on him. If we were a more stable franchise, then I would be more apt to draft him.
I wonder if people who were all over Manziel for his off the field issues would want Winston as our QB. Mind you he’s a sociopath that would probably be in jail had he not been policed by the Tallhassed PD.
The bottom line to me, is that the college systems are not meant to help pro teams evaluate who’ll be top NFL QBs based on college tape. If the QB has the arm and shows the ability to lead a team and make pre-snap reads, then he’s worth a pick.
If a team feels he can’t adjust to the necessary NFL pre-snap reads, that’s a red flag. If you want a QB with moxie and no arm, enjoy living with the Colt McCoys of the world.
Great work by SMU DB to let that WR fly by without getting him off that route. Dang, college tape is useless for QBs. Great example why.
Joe, what QBs displayed poor pocket presence in college and then had it mature as a pro?
His problem is that he holds onto the ball too long. It is a matter of learning his mental clock of when to get the ball away and reading defenses faster. Michael Vick learned to stay in the pocket and trust his arm later in his career
I’m not giving up a 1st round pick for Glass Joe.
Vick went from heinous to mediocre. His injuries with PHI in his 2nd Act were nearly all attributed to leaving the pocket when it was unneccesary. ESPN had some great videos on this back then.
I didnt watch Petty much. Can he make a 15 yard out pass or will teams squeeze the field on him?
his arm is plenty strong. the question on him is if he can make the reads. anyone that tells you anything definitively on him playing in a NFL offense is lying to you.
then I would be interested. If any of these QBs could demonstrate they could make the reads with an arm, they’d be 1sts. The game is just not preparing them anymore for the NFL game, no fault of its own. 100% agree with you, nobody knows, its become so much more developmental…
hi Joe … good reporting. this list is obviously the most subjective of all the positions you have done so far … all the other TOP 5 lists you have done are players that should be drafted in the 1st or 2nd round.
QB is a total crap-shoot as the browns well know … petty , grayson , mannion or somebody else could end-up being a pro-bowl caliber QB … you never know.
i too think hundley will be a decent pro … i like his size & athleticism.
hi TRS … i believe pettine & farmer are smart enough to know you need a good QB to get to where they wanna go. there is no way they’re happy going into the season with M&M .
i think the browns either end-up with bradford , cutler , foles or brees (pipe dream) or simply draft another QB … whether it’s mariota or someone else later in the draft.
There is nothing that could convince me that taking Jameis Winston is a good idea. Nothing. He could drop to us at 12 and I’d rather trade back than take that kid. I don’t need choir boys on my teams of choice, but he’s done nothing to make me think he’s anything but an utter fool off the field. Seen enough of those recently, thanks.
Had our first or Buffalo’s been top 3-5, I’d be all for making a play on Mariota. But I don’t think 12 and 19 will be enough to get up to the front of the line, at least not without giving up a significant amount more, this draft and next. He’s not the lock that Luck was, so I’m not trying to do an RG3 deal, but I think he’s the top guy at his position this year. Don’t think it will happen, but I’d be thrilled to see him in our new unis in 2015.
As for the rest discussed here, it’d be Grayson or nothing for me. We certainly need to pick someone up in the first couple days.
Grayson intrigues me. To me, he’s the best decision-maker of this class, but his throws to the flat and sideline sometimes float. If he can improve his velocity, he could be Matthew Stafford–a bit cement-footed, but accurate from different arm slots. Without that, though, you put his throws against the speed of NFL defensive backs and he might look like Colt McCoy.
“Hundley, I loved in 2012 and saw the raw tools and thought with another year or two of seasoning that he would be special. But, he is the same QB today that he was at that time.”
This +100. Two years ago I thought he was a franchise guy.
I’m a lot more excited about guys who were drafted later on last year–Zach Mettenberger, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Aaron Murray–than anyone outside of the mid- or late-round picks this year.