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March 18, 2015If Francisco Lindor is the Indians’ undisputed “can’t miss” prospect and Giovanny Urshela is the thinking man’s “under the radar” favorite, Jesus Aguilar seems relegated to yet another year as the .500-slugging elephant in the room. Everybody knows he’s there, everybody has seen the numbers he’s put up, but as Aguilar approaches his 25th birthday, the question has to be: does anybody really believe in Jesus?
For all the talk about the over-reliance on statistics in modern baseball analysis, the old-fashioned “eye test” can still carry enough weight to fully derail a fan-base’s enthusiasm for a young farmhand. This spring in Goodyear, the 6-foot-3, 250-pound Aguilar has erased the ugly memories of an 0-for-15, seven-strikeout 2014 preseason by jumping out to an 8-for-19 clip. In theory, he’s battling for a bench gig with the big club, but—even with a gimpy Nick Swisher looking like a question mark on the 1B/DH depth chart—Jesus is only likely to rise again in Columbus come April. This is bad news for the pitchers of the International League, but is it bad news for Indians fans?
Four out of five scouts seem to say “no.” Since Aguilar first signed with the Tribe as a comparatively scrawny 18 year-old in 2009, the descriptive summation of his talents has gradually evolved from “raw” into a less hopeful “limited.” Critics punched holes in the slugger’s monster 2013 campaign in Double-A Akron, looking past the gaudy 105 RBI total to point out a hitter with a long swing and an OPS 50 points lower than his teammate and fellow outlier prospect Carlos Moncrief. Jesus then went and clubbed 17 homers in 56 winterball games in his home country of Venezuela, eliciting more yawns.
Looking at the stat sheet, last season’s performance in Triple-A should have been the one that finally brought Aguilar into the good graces of the blue chip list-makers—the Baseball America and Prospectus scribes who’d long turned up their noses at him. He improved in virtually every key category—lowering his strikeout rate, raising his walk rate, lifting his batting average from .275 to .304, and his OPS from .776 to .905. Sure, his first cup of coffee in Cleveland was forgettable (4-for-33 in 19 games), but there’s got to be a future for a big right-handed stick in this line-up, doesn’t there?
“I wouldn’t get excited about him,” says Jeff Ellis, an old compatriot of mine now plying his wares for Scout.com. “It doesn’t help when a TV personality like Bruce Drennan goes on his show and says [Aguilar] is one of the best hitting prospects to come up since Ramirez and Belle. This never was true or even close to true. Aguilar never was higher than tenth on my Top Ten, and when I talked to scouts, he wasn’t high on anyone’s.
“The main reason is that you can’t scout stats. I use numbers all the time, but fans look at the home runs and RBIs and think a guy is going to be a star. Aguilar has worked to be better at pitch recognition, but it will never be more than a below average skill. He has some holes in the swing, and while he is good enough to mash minor league arms, it was clear to anyone who watches games that he probably projects more as a plus Scott Morgan or Danny Peoples.
“I hate to sound so negative, because if Aguilar could play another position, he could have a long career as a platoon guy. He can’t, though—he’s a below average first baseman.”
With Carlos Santana locked in at first base and a backlog of veteran DH options on the roster, it’s unclear when or if the Jesus Aguilar experiment will ever get its moment in Cleveland. Maybe the scouts are right, and a steady diet of Major League breaking balls on the outside corner would quickly prove to be the big man’s undoing. But for every Andy Marte, there is the occasional Richie Sexson—a big swinging, not particularly well-touted prospect whose Minor League numbers have more than a passing resemblance to Aguilar’s.
Sometimes a “limited” guy will surprise you. You just got to have a little faith.
18 Comments
Not me. Nice article though.
Beautifully written and while I have preferred Moncrief to Aguilar, there is certainly a chance that Jesus becomes our new Russell Branyan if he ever gets an extended look.
I didn’t know a thing about him before reading this. I feel like I do now. Good stuff.
I remember his call up last year and people CLAMORING to see his swing; then I saw his swing.
The scouts were correct.
I said NOBDOY, and that means you nj0.
He was losing playing time to Chris Gimenez. Not good.
good. but, this article was begging for a “Are you saying Jesus can’t hit a curveball?” reference.
http://memecrunch.com/meme/141XC/are-you-saying-jesus-christ-couldn-t-hit-a-curveball/image.png
To answer your question: Not me.
He looked completely and utterly in over his head last year when we called him up.
and I don’t mean rookie-level in over his head. I wish I could find the pitch count he totalled in his 33 at bats. Watching him it feels like he faced maybe 40-50 pitches in those ABs. It was either 1-2-3 SIT or 1-2 pop-fly/ground-out. I am not sure he ever took a pitch.
Yeah SO% was 34.2% and walks were 10.4% with a .166 average infers, dude can’t read a pitch.
Tough to see where Jesus figures in unless there’s an injury and/or trade with one of our corner outfielder/first basemen.
Let’s not forget that Jose Ramirez looked lost at the beginning of the season before he went back to AAA and came back a different player. 33 at bats is not enough to evaluate a player and I hope he gets another shot at some point.
ESPN has him at 4.39 pitches per plate appearance which actually is a lot. 38 PAs and 167 pitches. But I agree that he look overwhelmed.
Facepalm. Unforgivable omission. I am turning over my badge and gun.
“last season’s performance in Triple-A should have been the one that finally brought Aguilar into the good graces of the blue chip list-makers”
Another dirty trick played on us by that awful hitter-friendly park in Columbus. The Indians need to find one that’s a lot closer to neutral.
This. Hope I’m wrong, hope it was First Time in The Show nerves, but sure looked like the classic AAA Marte/LaPorta/Pagel softball swing to me.
That is a lot better than it appeared. But that is why we keep stats.
No sir, you have to lob the softballs like that one for others. Unfortunately, I selfishly could not resist plugging it in myself.
Jesus is my ideal 2nd baseman
Ahhh…Hey-sus. I like him very much.