1957: The end of an era, for catcher Jim Hegan and the Tribe
February 20, 2015Observations of the Offensive Linemen and Tight Ends at the NFL Scouting Combine
February 20, 2015The genesis for this article was actually spawned from one of my alltime favorite WFNY running articles (Anderson Varejao Enthusiasm Charts from Denny Mayo). He has graciously allowed me to completely mangle it by extending the concept to the Indians and the player who wears his emotions as outwardly as anyone ever has.
If you want to skip down to the fun, then just scroll down until you see pictures of Corey Kluber’s face. This article is the origin story, so it needs a bit of explanation for what I am trying to accomplish.1 If I continue the concept, then I’ll just link back to this story and you won’t have the explanation cluttering the top anymore.
Expectations and Why They Matter
We all have expectations about nearly everything in our lives. From the simple things like having hot coffee in the morning to the more obtuse things like obtaining a well-earned promotion at work, we have a constant and ever-changing set of expectations. The issue with expectations is that if they are not properly set, then they can lead to quite a bit of unhappiness. And, the last thing a Cleveland sports fan needs is another source of unhappiness. Therefore, I have set out to help guide what may be a reasonable set of expectations for the Cleveland Indians this season. Or, if the Indians fail to live up to them, then you can always blame me instead of yourself. Either way, you win.2
How To Measure Expectations
In microeconomic terms3 , if you need to measure anything abstract, then you would create a standard unit called a utility and measure everything based on that standard. But, where is the fun in that? We need a symbol of happiness. And, no one4 on the Cleveland Indians is a better example of unbridled enthusiasm and happiness than Corey Kluber.5 And, more enthusiasm means higher expectations.
Let us see what Corey Kluber has to say about it:
“I think this time of year is exciting,” said the pitcher, “because in the offseason you have that anticipation for when things are ready to start and get going. Now, you’re actually at that point. I’m sure everybody is anxious to get the ball rolling here.”
That quote is definitive proof that Corey Kluber had bottled up anticipation all offseason and that he is now excited and anxious to get things going. Therefore, the only logical way to measure the expectations is through what we shall call a Klu-Bot. Here are a few examples to help level-set a Klu-Bot.
Getting pummeled by baby powder, water, and sunflower seeds while conducting an interview equals one Klu-Bot
Making it rain for Justin Masterson equals three Klu-Bots
Winning the Cy Young equals six Klu-Bots.
Inevitable guest spot on True Detective equals five Klu-Bots
And, of course, having a website that covers the Indians create a Valentine’s Day card with Corey Kluber’s image equals eight Klu-Bots
National Pundit Expectations for the Cleveland Indians
“Use only that which works, and take it from any place you can find it.”
― Bruce Lee
I am not one to argue with Bruce Lee, so I will utilize the available preseason rankings. The mainstream media has mostly decided that it is too early to rank teams, but I will add them in future renditions as they become available.6 Fortunately, the statistic driven projection models do not need to wait for mostly meaningless Spring Training games to occur to create their rankings.
ESPN / Schoenfield – 1st in AL, 1st in AL Central
Vegas/Bovada – 5th in AL, 2nd in AL Central
ZiPS / Fangraphs – 3rd in AL, 1st AL Central
Baseball Prospectus / PECOTA –9th in AL, 2nd in AL Central
Average 4.5 in AL, 1.5 in AL Central
So, these rankings indicate that the Indians are projected to finish either 1st or 2nd in the division and are expected to make the playoffs. Only Baseball Prospectus has the Indians finishing outside the playoffs. And, the writers on that site even half apologized because their modeling didn’t know what to do with Kluber’s breakout performance, which would really also extend to Brantley. Obviously, there are many factors that can change such as injuries or players not playing up to their projected potential, but the initial expectation is that we are going to watch a playoff team this season.
Now, I fully suspect that the human driven power rankings will put a damper on the overall expectations of the Indians. Humans tend to lend more bias towards splashy offseason moves and the Indians do not own the offseason like the Cleveland Browns.7 Their financial model does not permit them to be players for the premier free agents like Jon Lester and James Shields8. And, sure they have a few minor blips like a minor leaguer testing positive for amphetimines or Jason Kipnis hurting himself while weightlifting, but overall they are bringing back relatively the same team they had last year that fell just short of the playoffs.
The statistical models9 demonstrate how bringing back a relatively young team with quite a few candidates to have bounce back seasons10 might have been the correct decision for the Indians front office to make.
That is worth 5 Klu-Bots
My Expectations for the Indians
“I’m not going to tell the story the way it happened. I’m going to tell it the way I remember it.” – Finn from Great Expectations11
I will spend far too much time breaking down the Indian’s rotation, bullpen, lineup, defense, and managerial decisions this year. But, the overwhelming factor that is shaping my expectations for this team is the relative youth that the Cleveland Indians employ.
Expected 2015 Indian contributors 24yo or younger (4): Francisco Lindnor (21), Jose Ramirez (22), Kyle Crockett (23), Trevor Bauer (24),
Expected 2015 Indian contributors 26yo or younger (+6): TJ House(25), Danny Salazar(25), Cody Allen(26), Lonnie Chisenhall(26), Roberto Perez(26), Tyler Holt(26)
Expected 2015 Indian contributors 28yo or younger (+6): Bryan Shaw(27), Yan Gomes(27), Zach McAllister(27), Carlos Carrasco(28), Michael Brantley(28), Jason Kipnis(28)
Expected 2015 Indian contributers under 30yo (+3): Corey Kluber(29), Carlos Santana (29), Marc Rzepczynski(29)Other players under 30yo I left out that could contribute if they improve: Giovanny Urshela(23), Zach Walters(25), Jesus Aguilar(25), Carlos Moncrief (26), CC Lee(28), JB Shuck (28), Nick Hagadone(29), and a few other minor leaguers.
While not all of those 19 players under 30 years old will make the Cleveland Indians opening day 25 man roster, I fully suspect that each will play a significant role in shaping the Indian’s success or failure this season. Baseball can be a wildly crazy sport where a few outlier performances12 can determine a team’s fate. However, having the youth means that we have many players who are on the good side of the player development curve13 , which is why the statistical models like the Indians so much this season. I happen to agree with them. Go Tribe!
Six Klu-Bots
- Or, at least that is what I am telling myself. [↩]
- You are welcome. [↩]
- I saw that yawn! [↩]
- Mr. Cleaveland, I do hope you appreciate the white space. [↩]
- Some may even say his enthusiasm is off the charts hence the link back to Denny’s article. [↩]
- Because there should be some usage in life for the power rankings that ESPN, SI, Fox, and CBS all create. [↩]
- Sorry, Brandon Moss [↩]
- And it is debateable if they should even if they had the money [↩]
- and Schoenfield [↩]
- regression up to the mean [↩]
- Just saying that I am sure to have a bias, but I will do my best here. [↩]
- good or bad [↩]
- room to get better [↩]
5 Comments
“Expected 2015 Indian contributors 26yo or younger (+8)”
I only count 6 listed, so either you forgot two or your total was wrong.
Also, you’re averaging like 23 footnotes per article, give or take 10. That’s gotta be a record!
Now that I’ve chipped in my newcomer heckling, I give this article 5.5 Klubots! Looking forward to your Tribe coverage this season.
Comments like this one are why the Blawg Pound is the best commentariat in the land.
Yes, I demoted CC Lee and Aguilar, but neglected to update the numbers. I shall fix.
So here I am, easing my way back into the scene after a fandom health break, and who do I see authoring articles? Jeez, they’ll let anyone write these days! But seriously, definitely the right man for the job. Catching up on the earlier contributions now, and looking forward to more, bode. Cheers!
What say you, MKC?
http://i1235.photobucket.com/albums/ff439/princessozma/gifs/tangled-movethumbupdown.gif
Thank you sir, much appreciated
That kind response just bumped you up to 6.5 Klubots!