Johnny Manziel out for Week 17; Brian Hoyer is day-to-day
December 22, 2014Karlos Dansby has some tough love for Justin Gilbert
December 23, 2014Another year, another disaster of a Browns season. It’s difficult to remember, but the Browns were 7-4 following a last-second victory over the Atlanta Falcons on November 23. A team can practically backwards somersault into the playoffs from 7-4! Instead, the Browns have gone a stupefying 0-4 since the Falcons victory, limping towards the December finish line yet again. Actually, they haven’t limped as much as crawled on all fours toward the finish line, feebly begging passerby to find the compassion to mercilessly put them out of their misery.
We’ll have more coverage on the Browns this week in anticipation of their coup de grâce, but While We’re Waiting…
Forget about this year, but how many titles will the Cavs win by 2019? The answer according to wizard of probability Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is .37. That’s not a satisfying number to most sports fans, as it is actually impossible to win .37 championships, as is winning .84 championships, 11/3 championships, or x^2+e^1.647 championships. The Cavs can either win zero, one, two, three, four, or five championships before 2019.
But when you account for probability, you can do things like project a non-integer number of championships for a team. Silver’s model relied on age, overall team quality, and the quality of its best player. Even after looking at it carefully, Silver’s model is a little opaque. But the gist of it is that the Cavs’ projected NBA Championships through 2018-2019 is .37, third behind the Los Angeles Clippers at .42 and the Golden State Warriors at .95.
At No. 3, the Cavaliers, who have a young core surrounding James, but who don’t yet look like they’ll stand head and shoulders above the pack as James’s teams did some years in Miami.
I enjoy when smart people make statistical models to try and forecast the future. Silver certainly has a world of credibility. I think this model is fairly flawed, because it’s still partially reliant on last season’s Cavs’ win total, which is no indication with how they’ll perform with an overhauled roster. It also doesn’t account for upgrades in coaching, or injuries, or drastic future roster changes. How great can a model be when it pegs the San Antonio Spurs as fourteenth in the league in projected championships?
But the good news is that it’s another statistical measure that puts the Cavs close to the top of the league. Other interesting tidbits: 1. The Cavs’ .37 projected championships is a huge jump from their .07 from the end of last season; and 2. The 2009-2010 Cavaliers are one of the highest-rated teams ever not to win a championship, with 1.2 projected championships.
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Speaking of misery, Grantland’s Bill Simmons devoted his column last Friday to pinpointing when the City of Cleveland reached its “misery tipping point.” What’s that, exactly? Simmons has a long-running gag in his columns and mailbags that “God hates Cleveland,”1 and Simmons set out to identify (assuming that God actually does hate Cleveland) the “specific moment in history that makes you say, ‘Oh yeah, THAT was it! That’s when everything turned’” from what was a prolonged run of relative success for Cleveland sports.
His eventual answer may surprise a lot of Cleveland folks. Simmons’ admittedly convoluted theory is that “[t]he tipping point happened on December 14, 1980.” That Sunday afternoon, the 1980 Kardiac Kid Browns were in Minnesota facing the Vikings. Up one with 14 seconds left, the Browns allowed a hook-and-ladder and a Hail Mary when the Vikings had no timeouts, losing the game 23-28. Three weeks later, the Browns would lose 12-14 to the Oakland Raiders in the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, the result of a debacle known as Red Right 88.
So does God actually hate Cleveland? Gimmick aside, Simmons says No. He attributes it mostly to bad luck and the low probability of winning championships when there’s only one trophy for 30 teams.2 But he did accurately describe the cynical “point of no return” for fans.
It’s awful when you reach that point as a fan base, or even worse, as an entire city. It really is. Sports shouldn’t mean this much, but they do, and that’s just how it goes. But again, these things CAN flip. If you want to feel better about being a Cleveland sports fan (or a Bills fans, or a Washington fan, or whatever), read the column I wrote after the Patriots beat the Rams in 2002, or after the Red Sox improbably rallied back in Games 4 and 5 of the 2004 ALCS. When it finally flips, it’s magical. Ask any Saints fan. Ask any San Francisco Giants fan. Ask any L.A. Kings fan. Ask any Mavericks fan. Ask anyone who thought their team was perpetually screwed, and then suddenly, they realized it was all bullshit and sports is way more random than they thought.
So no, I don’t think God actually hates Cleveland. But starting with that goofy Vikings game in December 1980, let’s at least agree that we have been witnesses to the most obscenely unfair 34-year run in professional sports history. It’s going to flip. At some point. (I think.)
Everyone has their opinion of Simmons, and I won’t try and change yours. But I’m always appreciative of national columnists who write Cleveland-centric columns that aren’t about LeBron when it’s definitely not “cool” to do so. I don’t want sympathy or accolades or charitable donations, but it’s nice when someone at least recognizes the torturous run Cleveland sports has had, and the fortitude it takes to withstand it.
Seeing as the entire premise of Waiting for Next Year is being consciously aware at all times of what Simmons was analyzing, we don’t frequently catalogue our teams’ failures like Simmons did. I thought it was a novel idea and I respected Bill’s take on the matter. I would still go with Red Right 88 as the definitive moment where it appeared that God “hated” Cleveland—laziness, convenience, and lack of originality notwithstanding. The Vikings loss on December 14, 1980 was incredibly improbable and totally baffling, but no regular season game3 makes you question the inner workings of the universe like a playoff game. The Vikings game was just a warning of things to come. I’d love to hear what others think.
If there is an omnipotent being controlling the fate of the universe, I’m guessing that he’s indifferent to the plight of professional sports fans in a mid-sized city in Northeastern Ohio on a giant rock with seven billion people hurtling around a massive fireball in a universe with several other trillion such fireballs. Does God hate Cleveland? I don’t know. It sure feels like it sometimes. He’s sure not helping. But the “magical” moment of which Simmons speaks when the cosmos seem to turn in your team’s favor is one of the reasons I keep watching … and hoping.
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And the award goes to…Boyhood It seems like most WFNYers have used this space to discuss something other than the sports; a nice change of pace. I’ve written about movies before (and if you haven’t read our WFNY roundtable on Holiday Movies, you should while you’re still in the holiday spirit). Leading up to awards season (should I do this again), I’d like to highlight an Oscar contender or an enjoyable movie that ought to be in contention.
To kick it off, I’ll discuss Boyhood, which was released earlier this year in July. It’s a groundbreaking film in which director Richard Linklater filmed Ellar Coltrane growing up from age five to age eighteen. The level of commitment required to write, film, direct, and edit a project over twelve years while maintaining the same principal cast throughout is totally unprecedented. It was a movie fifteen years in the making. Try and imagine the artistic and creative risk Linklater took making this movie. What if the kid ended up being untalented and/or a scumbag? What if something had happened to Ethan Hawke or Patricia Arquette?
It’s received overwhelming critical support (it’s at 99 percent on the Tomatometer) and will be one of the award contenders come January and February. It’s one of the most unique movies I have ever seen, and the privilege of watching a boy actually become a young man onscreen is without comparison. It is an experience more than a movie. It was a profoundly weird movie to digest, and I’m not sure if that’s due to the few similarities the main character had with my own life, or the parallels that everyone will inevitably discover with their own childhood.
If it weren’t for two or three laughably bad scenes that disrupted the film’s powerful sense of reality, I would consider it an instant classic. To watch a young boy, with his entire life in front of him, shift from childlike wonder to adolescent disillusionment to post-high school rediscovery of the joy and optimism of life in two hours is deeply affecting. I predict that Linklater will win the Academy Award for Best Director, but I don’t think it has the traditional allure of big issues or a grandiose story to win Best Picture. But everyone who ever grew up or has a child (i.e., everyone) should see it.
Thanks for reading. Happy Holidays to all you readers and your families.
- It’s 100 percent good-natured, and not cruel and insulting like most attempts to have fun at Cleveland’s expense. [↩]
- FiveThirtyEight also tried to answer this question last May, and it’s definitely worth a read if you’re a Cleveland fan and interested in that sort of thing. [↩]
- Other than maybe one that disqualified a team for the playoffs, which the December 14, 1980 did not do. [↩]
28 Comments
The most amazing thing to me when I read the Simmons piece was that I’d never seen that video from the Vikings game before (though when I mentioned it to my Dad he immediately said Ahmad Rashad/Mrs. Cosby, though even he didn’t remember the hook and ladder).
Agree about “Boyhood,” Kyle. Thought the concept and its execution were stunning. I also marveled at Linklater’s self-imposed pressure: if it turned out the lead couldn’t act as a teen, the girl would have to be the lead. If she wasn’t great as a teen (and she is just ok), his years of work were down the tube. Astonishing to see great actors actually age and mature in a film.
Loved this movie.
Well, I don’t know if God hates Cleveland, but he does hate Cleveland sports. At least he used to.
The flaw in Simmons’ idea is that he (as well as other sports pundits) is that they compare individual teams to Cleveland.
So, let’s compare apples to apples…
Boston may have not had any titles from the Red Sox, but they had titles from the Celtics, Bruins and Patriots.
San Francisco had no recent Giants titles, but plenty of 49ers titles.
LA had no Kings titles, but plenty of Lakers titles, and a Raiders title.
Dallas had no Mavs titles, but they had Cowboys titles, and a Stars title.
And Chicago, cry me a river…no Cubs titles, but how about all those Bulls titles, Blackhawk titles, and the Bears title.
no, he did compare city titles – that’s how he reached his conclusion that we are the most miserable.
“Not having a scientific way to measure which professional fan bases have been tortured the most didn’t stop me from figuring it out in 2010, then again in a follow-up mailbag. Astoundingly, three Cleveland teams cracked the top 10: the Browns (no. 4), the Indians (no. 5) and the Cavaliers (no. 10).1
That was the moment when I realized that, yes, God might actually hate Cleveland.”
I’d like to take this opportunity to “thank” Mike Tirico for jinxing Connor Barth last night. He just HAD to mention that Barth hadn’t missed a FG since signing with the Broncos as Barth was lining up for a 49-yarder at the end of the first half. You can guess what happened next, as well as the outcome of my fantasy finals. That miss was a 5 point swing, I lost by 4.5. I know, I know – the Butterfly Effect and all that…if Barth makes that FG, the whole second half might play out differently. But as soon as the words left Tirico’s mouth, I cursed him out.
Then he needs to leave his individual team-centric comparison in his next to last paragraph out.
I like to think of us as Job…we’re still being tested. lol
PEYTON MANNING THREW 4 INTERCEPTIONS AGAINST THE BENGALS – WE’VE SEEN ENOUGH! THEY BETTER DRAFT MARIOTA!!
The correct term is “hook and LATERAL,” not hook and ladder. The receiver runs a buttonhook pattern and then laterals to the guy trailing the play, although it’s not technically a “lateral” because the ball is pitched backward not sideways. But as happens so often, the phrase was corrupted by lazy announcers who don’t think about what they say, and now I guess it’s widely accepted.
But that’s okay, my pet peeve needed a little exercise.
Two notes:
It is not impossible to win x^2+e^1.647 championships in the next five years. That is a valid number of championships for x =+/-2.27846i, +/-2.04729i, +/-1.78644i, +/-1.48033i, +/-1.0915i, or +/-0.437473i.
There are trillions of fireballs in the Milky Way alone — with trillions of galaxies, there are more like ~10^20 fireballs around which any deity can preoccupy their time.
I’m not as gif-gifted as others here, and I can’t even find a good image, let alone an animated one, but Varsity Blues is the reason I always thought it was called a hook and ladder
http://content9.flixster.com/question/52/61/31/5261319_std.jpg
While I don’t disagree with this assessment, I think it could go either way, as both “hook” and “ladder” are routes that receivers can run, and the “ladder” is at least arguably what the second player does. Also, evoking the imagery of the hook and ladder mechanism used by fire companies, wherein the hook attaches the ladder to the building while the ladder itself extends to the farthest part of the building for the rescue. At the end of the day, I think you’re right, but I’m willing to extend grace to the phrase. It is, after all, the holidays.
Hmmm, I’ve never heard of a “ladder” route. What is that?
No, God does not hate Cleveland. Indeed, quite the opposite is true. God loves Cleveland – possibly more than any other U.S. city (at least in terms of sports).
“Be patient, therefore, brothers, until the coming of the Lord. See how the farmer waits for the precious fruit of the earth, being patient about it, until it receives the early and late rates. You also, be patient. Establish your hearts, for the coming of the Lord is at hand. . . . Behold, we consider those blessed who remain steadfast. You have heard of the steadfastness of Job, and you have seen the purpose of the Lord, how the Lord is compassionate and merciful.”
“‘My son, do not regard lightly the discipline of the Lord, nor be weary when reproved by him. For the Lord disciplines the one he loves, and chastises every son whom he receives.’ It is for discipline that you have to endure. God is treating you as sons.”
“And the Lord restored the fortunes of Job, when he had prayed for his friends. And the Lord gave Job twice as much as he had before. Then came to him all his brothers and sisters and all who had known him before, and ate bread with him in his house. And they showed him sympathy and comforted him for all the evil that the Lord had brought upon him. And each of them game him a piece of money and a ring of gold. And the Lord blessed the latter days of Job more than his beginning.”
The Bible doesn’t say it, but I think those rings were championship rings.
Basically, it can be any any route that changes depths across the field, not in a direct line like a post, seam, or corner, but in one or more “steps”. It can be like an out route, or a bulldog, that ends with the receiver then heading up field before the ball is thrown (or in the case of the “hook and ladder,” before the first receiver pitches the ball to him). I know it’s a stretch (like and extension ladder!), but it’s at least believable.
I don’t want your life!
I think it is intended as a pun, therefore Hook and Lateral makes the most sense to me.
Boyhood was certainly good. I am not as high on it as you, Kyle, but I did like it.
I really enjoyed “Whiplash,” the debut from Damien Chazelle and “Mr. Turner” from Mike Leigh. I think Timothy Spall should win an award for his portrayal of the painter, JMW Turner. Not that awards mean anything anymore.
I think it’s actually a “hoax and literal.”
The second beatitude says, “Blessed are they who mourn, for they shall be comforted.”
I think you’re on to something, Garry.
“Not only that, but we rejoice in our sufferings, knowing that suffering produces endurance, and endurance produces character, and character produces hope, and hope does not put us to shame, because God’s love has been poured into our hearts[.]”
Thank you. It’s often referred to as a “hook and ladder” in conversation, though. I know the “ladder” is short for “lateral,” but I guess people felt less stupid spelling it “hook and ladder” instead of “hook and later”? I checked Wikipedia, which listed “hook and ladder” as an alternate spelling, and I’d seen it spelled “hook and ladder” elsewhere. It is a misnomer, though, yes.
I love J.K. Simmons, even though Whiplash wasn’t really his most likable role. I agree, but awards are a convenient excuse to talk about good movies and expose people to movies they wouldn’t otherwise see.
Oh, I wasn’t aware of that backup plan. Well, the girl was Linklater’s daughter (Lorelei), so that’s interesting. I should have mentioned that. I thought she did really well, too.
Look, not to get all biblical (because the “God hates” is all a bit), BUT if he did hate a city and wanted to rain down some fire and brimstone, wouldn’t it have been the modern-day Sodom (which is either Vegas or New Orleans, IMO)? So maybe we argue that he did in fact strike NO with a little Katrina action (and some crazies actually do argue that crap), but then lo and behold, he sends the chosen one (Drew Brees) and blesses the city with a championship! So he doesn’t hate them after all! And in the end, Mrs. Brees was not in fact cursed like Lot’s wife and turned into a pillar of salt. Consider this “God hates” myth busted.
God doesn’t know Cleveland enough to hate it but I can still remember that Vikings game.
nerd power.
Yes