Johnny Manziel, drumming, sports talk radio callers and more – WFNY Podcast – 2014-12-10
December 10, 2014The D is Mightier: Cleveland Browns Film Room
December 11, 2014Cleveland Browns thoughts entering week 15…
Sunday’s game is exciting. I’m pretty pumped to be there. It’s not too often that’s the case for any Browns team this late in the season. But these are special circumstances: The 7-6 Cleveland football team is starting its Hollywood-like QB against the 8-4-1 Cincinnati Bengals. Of course, the Browns smashed their in-state rivals in the last matchup. A playoff run remains incredibly improbable … so this is somewhat just for fun.
As a note, with a win, Johnny Manziel would tie an illustrious group of 1-win starting quarterbacks for the franchise since 1999. Here’s the entire table, as sorted by most wins:
Revised: This table of #Browns starting QB wins since 1999 is definitely NSFW. pic.twitter.com/Ru21pPdeaJ
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) December 10, 2014
I’m in favor of the Brian Hoyer-for-Manziel swap. Arguably, Hoyer has been as bad as anyone in the NFL. Or, as I shared earlier this week:
Brian Hoyer's week-by-week PFF chart, or, alternatively, #Browns fan optimism each season. pic.twitter.com/rcmPuVUXY4
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) December 10, 2014
Yes, Brian Hoyer is the local kid and had “decent” success over the duration of his tenure. But it’s time to see what Johnny Manziel can do. If he completely tanks in these last three weeks, Hoyer wins leverage and likely a big contract. If Manziel can show up, the decision becomes more difficult this summer. Recall: Hoyer just turned 29 and Manziel just turned 22. The playoff probabilities are 4.5%, per FiveThirtyEight. What’s the harm in trying out Johnny?
Assorted Winter Meetings thoughts on the Indians…
Let’s start on the money side of things. Rob Neyer had a great point this week: Are teams even worried at all about money right now? It seems contract numbers are flying all over the place at astronomical proportions. Almost any free agent deal seems like a huge over-pay.
Which brings me, albeit briefly today, to the topic of Corey Kluber’s next contract. I know that Jason Lukehart, Kevin Kleps and Jordan Bastian all have covered this topic already. I hope to expand on it more in the future. But given that Kluber just won the Cy Young … and given potential sustained success at a similar-ish rate … don’t you think he’ll deserve similar dollars to these guys as a free agent?
If Corey Kluber has another Cy Young-esque season, he deserves to be in this echelon too when he hits FA. pic.twitter.com/V7QrVLLuKC
— Jacob L. Rosen (@JacobLRosen) December 10, 2014
Of course, Kluber, who turns 29 in April, isn’t a free agent until after the 2018 season. That’s four more years of team control, although the price will start to increase quickly in arbitration beginning in 2016. He’s still only pitched the equivalent of two full major league seasons. He’ll be 33 in his first free agent year. I just struggle to see why his camp won’t push and push as much as possible for a $20 million-plus annual payday as soon as possible. He’s on pace to certainly deserve it.
Meanwhile, let’s take a look at some early projections for the 2015 season:
.@FanGraphs rolled out 2015 projected standings this morning. Here's how the AL Central currently stands: pic.twitter.com/h5WfWMwJSY
— August Fagerstrom (@AugustFG_) December 10, 2014
It practically seems that every American League team has a shot at 85 wins, as Dave Cameron wrote. The White Sox added a ton of talent this week. The Minnesota Twins might be signing Ervin Santana. The Indians are certainly good and will rely upon Corey Kluber and Michael Brantley to be studs again in 2015. But it won’t be an easy ride to the playoffs by any stretch of the imagination.
Various Cleveland Cavaliers links from around the web…
I wrote way more about the Cavs this week than the other teams in the form of my Toronto Raptors recap from late Tuesday night. So instead of writing anymore on them, I’ll just share some quick links in bullet-point form:
- Fear The Sword’s Ryan Mourton looked at Kyrie Irving’s impressive hot streak.
- Hardwood Paroxysm’s Evans Clinchy wrote about the team’s inevitable climb to the top of the East.
- BBallBreakdown’s Ben Dowsett wrote about LeBron’s revitalized role as a distributor.
- SLAM Magazine’s Brendan Bowers profile the ups and downs of Anderson Varejao’s career.
- This ESPN #NBAFrontOffice post on Anthony Davis should remind folks of the mid-2000 LeBron days.
- ESPN.com’s Dave McMenamin on LeBron’s recent enjoyment of the team’s streak.
- ESPN Insider’s Kevin Pelton said that these Cavs are finally what we all thought they should be.
- USA Today’s Jeff Zillgitt wrote about the national spotlight for Thursday’s big Cavs-Thunder matchup.
And we’ll end with this week’s best Dion Waiters tweets…
Dion Waiters either doesnât know what to do with his hands like Ricky Bobby or heâs always calling for the ball.
— Zach Harper (@talkhoops) December 5, 2014
I have Dion Waiters takes fatigue. I am fatigued.
— FearTheSword (@FearTheSword) December 6, 2014
.@JeffFogle: In the last four games, Cavs are +78 with Dion Waiters on the bench. -46 with him on the floor. Wow. http://t.co/LMPHPvlUaH
— David Zavac (@DavidZavac) December 6, 2014
Waiters, the people, bring food and drinks to others. Waiters, the basketball player, is often criticized for not giving the ball to others.
— Perd Hapley (@PerdHapleyNBA) December 9, 2014
Will & Kate are the only people in the building that Dion Waiters has yet to talk trash to.
— John Schuhmann (@johnschuhmann) December 9, 2014
Sup #cavstwitter http://t.co/YM9AmcxhEK
— â (@FireJB_) December 9, 2014
Cavs G Dion Waiters on 26 points and overall performance: "I pretty much told everybody, 'It's coming.' … I knew it would happen, man."
— Sam Amico (@AmicoHoops) December 9, 2014
https://twitter.com/russbengtson/status/542166251028889601
Waiters on talking trash w/ KG: "I respect everything the man did for the league, but you know, young coming up, I need mineâs too."
— Dave McMenamin (@mcten) December 9, 2014
Will and Kate are going to tell everyone that there's a man named Waiters who is the finest basketeer in the colonies.
— Adi Joseph (@AdiJoseph) December 9, 2014
https://twitter.com/Gibberman10/status/542479438664196096
Dion Waiters says he told teammates it'd take awhile for him to find it, but "once I do, it's over. I got it…I'm back. Spread the word"
— Keith Britton (@KeithBritton86) December 10, 2014
And finally, as a special bonus in case you might have missed it, the Fox Sports Ohio broadcast had a swag-tastic end-of-first-quarter montage during the Toronto Raptors game on Tuesday night:
The cut to commercial featured a missed warmups dunk and a mascot strut https://t.co/pwDlcJ5jvj
— Zach Harper (@talkhoops) December 10, 2014
34 Comments
Fixing a typo you had:
But itâs time to see what Johnny Manziel can do. If he completely tanks in these last three weeks, the Browns can continue to look for a viable starting QB.
They have one. đ
http://www.internationalhero.co.uk/c/connor1.jpg
One unsaid benefit to Hoyer not starting the rest of the way. His 9-6 winning record with the post-99 Browns is preserved (no, I don’t count the Bills game he left trailing and neither should you). If he did lose out, then he’d drop into a tie with Jake Delhomme for best winning% since ’99 at .500.
Now, let’s all cheer that Johnny Football (who has only been known as Joel Bitonio’s roommate thus far in his tenure) to become the 2nd post-99 Brown’s QB to have a starting record above .500.
I think that Johnny Jamboogie will actually be ‘The One’ but it’s not known until he plays on the field. I hope that Connor is eating his NFL vitamins so that he is ready next year if we do need him.
Any offer to Kluber will most likely mean buying out his arbitration years for more than he’d regularly get at the cost of giving the team one or two years after arbitration. Considering his age and the fact that he’s a pitcher, I would not take such a deal as I’d want to hit free agency as soon as possible. That’s where the real money will be. Plus, it’s not like he will be doing poorly in arbitration.
I think players are going to quickly learn that those types of deal (like Brantley’s and Santana”s) mostly benefit the teams.
it depends. the players get to protect themselves against injuries and flame-outs under-cutting their value. so, on the aggregate, the teams likely do financially benefit, but it’s due to the player’s basically buying themselves some insurance.
True. I’m just assuming similar production this year which means he’d be making enough through three years of arbitration to set himself up pretty nicely.
If I’m a near thirty player just entering arbitration, I’d want to hit free agency ASAP. The difference between being 32 and 34 on the FA market is serious money, no doubt. If I was 23, I might be more likely to take some guaranteed money as insurance at the cost of a year or two because the big pay day will still be there regardless, whether I’m 26 or 28.
All that said, if the deal is sweet enough, then I’d be down.
Justin Masterson signed by the Red Sox. The circle is now complete.
http://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/there_can_be_only_one_highlander.gif
Red Sox are busy bees but who woke up the Marlins? Lets see if they keep this roster together for an entire year.
Padres getting Kemp makes zero sense to me. Been a fun off-season thus far. Maybe I’m misremembering, but I think almost nothing happened at last years winter meetings.
SD needed some sort of bat looks like, for now, he’s the best they could do. I have mixed feelings on what the BoSox have done but the Marlins, wow, I’m impressed.
Johhny Kurgan…I like that.
I really want this Hoyer talk to finally put an end to the notion of “QB records.” How many of those 9 wins that Hoyer supposedly has are directly, absolutely attributable to him – i.e., but for Brian Hoyer, the Browns would not have won? I’m talking proximate cause. 3? 4? Fewer? Is it even quantifiable? (I obviously believe it isn’t.) Having watched every game this year and all of the games that he played in last year, I can pretty confidently say that Hoyer was not the proximate cause of very many of those wins. He’s actually had a pretty decent team around him. Indeed, you could say that the Browns actually won some/many of those games IN SPITE of Brian Hoyer. But for Brian Hoyer, the Browns might actually be 10-3 this year – but that’s also purely unknowable, as presumably “someone” would have had to be under center.
QBs to not have wins and losses.
It isn’t.
As a big baseball stats guy, I think the proliferation of advanced stats into football is actually a negative thing. In baseball, most things are pretty static. Yeah, pitchers will approach guys differently, but if you switch out Barry Bonds for Austin Kearns you still end up with mostly the same variables affecting their play.
In football, if you take out Hoyer and put in Manning or Dalton or some Detmer, you’ve just changed everything. Different game plan, different schemes, different approaches, different personnel, etc. etc. etc.
So yeah, attributing wins/losses to QBs is dumb. Really dumb. Like so obviously dumb that it beggars belief that people would consider putting any stock into it.
Was there every a Highlander who lopped off his own head? Cause that’s Hoyer’s Highlander.
Yes. With baseball, you essentially know that a given pitcher has 3 or 4 pitches. You generally know how those pitches will be employed. And you generally know to whom those pitches will be thrown. More importantly, you know that the pitcher will pitch on every play. So, taking all of those things together, a “win” or “loss” to a pitcher seems to make more sense (I still hate it, but not to the same degree).
In football, a QB could theoretically hand the ball off on every play and still record a “win.” This is utter nonsense. As a matter of fact, if the Browns win on Sunday, it will be because Shanahan calls the essential equivalent of handing the ball off every play. It’s going to be a bunch of high percentage stuff, working around a running game (and Manziel’s physical tools). Manziel will neither earn a win or a loss on Sunday, though he will obviously contribute to one or the other.
The “Total QBR” thing is a bit comical, but I like this concept much better than ascribing wins and losses to a QB. It at least attempts to quantify how a guy actually plays his position.
I think I might go the other way, but I see your point. If you get hurt before hitting FA at 32, you’re pretty much done. The chances of earning a big contract are almost nil. If you hit FA at 28 after getting hurt, you still have a chance to reestablish your value and get paid. I would be more conservative when I have more to lose.
I’ve come to appreciate QBR as a quick way to look back at a game and see how much a QB actually did to help a team win. It’s not perfect and I would never use it to predict future success, but it is a way to deduce if Colt McCoy’s 300 yards were just because the team was down by four TDs.
add in that if you are hitting FA at an earlier age, then it is because you are likely a better player overall who is more likely to sustain your numbers entering (or at least barely exiting) your prime.
More I think about it, the more I think it’s all about the particulars of the offer. How much money at how many years?
If I was a player, I’d also be considering how salaries will increase over the next X years. There’s a lot of money in baseball right now thanks to the RSN trend. Is that going to continue? Slow down? Speed up? There’s also the QO which, supposedly, may go away after the next CBA. What does that mean? Will there be something similar to replace it? Lot to consider.
I didn’t realize DA had 34 starts. Jeez
“If he completely tanks in these last three weeks, Hoyer wins leverage and likely a big contract”
NO, SMH, please NO. They are more than two QBs on the planet.
Actually, that would be Weeden.
and he did that despite losing a QB competition to Charlie Frye
no, no. nj0 is saying that he purposefully lopped off his own head. Weeden would be the guy who tripped and flailed his arms about accidentally lopping off his own head.
I played against Frye in HS. I didn’t think he was particularly good lol. Our senior year we were both 8-0 going into the game and we beat them in overtime when they had a 4 and goal from about the 8 and he was scambling around and tried to throw the ball from the 5. They caught the pass, crowd erupted (it was in Willard) and then the refs got together, and I went over to them and asked what happened and he said “you won the game” and I was celebrating before the refs made the call. Everyone probably looking at me like wth is this guy doing.
James Harrison has gained the power of about four different Browns.
There’s a huge American flag somewhere that stole his essence.
So, Turkey Jones has Bradshaw’s power? đ
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/view4/4771954/turkey-jones-greatest-sack-o.gif
Living in the past? You’re g-dd-mn right I’m living in the f*#*@*! past!
$9.5M for Masterson? Plus incentives? Wow. I was thinking he’d get like $5M with another $5M in incentives. Good for him.
and another sign that MLB teams are just rolling in $$$ right now.
Yea well unfortunately in this case the Red Sox can afford it which for me is bad. If Masterson ends up in the bullpen which is where I’ve said he’s belonged for the last four years it’s not as bad but Boston is talking about him in the rotation. On top of that they traded for Miley and I have no idea why. I like the trade for Porcello but personally I would have preferred what was used for Miley used towards adding Hamels.