Week 5 Film Room: The Defense
October 9, 2014
Columbus Crew unveil new brand, may share facility with Cleveland Browns
October 9, 2014No matter how smoothly this season goes for the Cleveland Cavaliers, there are going to be some stormy parts. Every team has its streaks of subpar play, and the Cavs have the added challenges of a totally rebuilt roster, unfamiliarity among the new faces, a rookie NBA coach, unprecedented expectations, undeveloped chemistry, and distractingly maddening national attention. Dion Waiters is going to be the lightning rod for most of the criticism that comes during the most tempestuous of times.
Because LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love are more-decorated All-Stars who have been anointed as “great” players in the league, they’re virtually unassailable for basketball-related criticism. This means that when things go wrong, criticism is going to strike Dion—a less friendly, mercurial, egomaniacal hothead—in rapid succession. The Cavs are on a losing streak? Dion needs to play better defense! The Cavs got blown out at home to the Spurs? Well, Dion took that stupid shot in the first quarter! The Cavs are beating teams by less than forty points? Dion’s screwing up the team’s chemistry! It’s cold and snowy and I’m pissed off? Dion!!!!! I have to pretend to go to the bathroom for thirty minutes when I’m out with friends because I don’t have HBO and haven’t seen True Detective yet and don’t want to know what happens? Dionnnnnnnnnnn!!!!1
Dion Waiters is going to be the lightning rod for most of the criticism that comes during the most tempestuous of times.
One of the season-long arguments for Cavs fans is going to be whether or not Waiters should be starting for the Cavaliers. Any minor defect of chemistry among the starting five is going to be placed squarely on Dion’s shoulders given the reputation he’s developed. The solution is (mostly) simple: Don’t start Dion Waiters! Not only is it good for Dion Waiters to be sheltered from high voltage public opinion, but it’s good for the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The case for Dion coming off the bench is primarily inspired by the success of teams with dynamic bench players and the perceived need for a valuable sixth man. The best current examples of indispensable sixth men are Jamal Crawford and Manu Ginobili. Crawford started 24 games last season out of necessity, but normally doesn’t enter the game until the start of the second quarter. J Crossover is an explosive shooting guard that may very well be the best pickup-style player in the NBA,2 and scores in bunches when Chris Paul and Blake Griffin ordinarily go to the bench. Manu Ginobili started only 3 games last year and long ago embraced his status as a non-starter, freeing him to come off the bench and terrorize opposing defenses desperate from a reprieve from Tony Parker and the rest of the Spurs offensive machine. Two other excellent sixth men that should be memorable to Cavs fans are James Harden from his Days of Thunder, and J.J. Barea, the ex-Maverick who may have turned the tide against LeBron’s Heat in the 2011 Finals with his innate peskiness.3 The point is that an offensively gifted sixth man can bombard a second unit for bunches of cheap points and keep the opponent’s defense on “threat level red” even when the stars are on the bench.
Not only do I think Dion is perfect for this role, but there are two special reasons the Cavs need Dion to fill this role for the Cavs. The first is that the Cavs starting five is overstocked with guys who are accustomed to having the basketball and doing neat things with it. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, and Kevin Love are the no-brainer starters for the Cavs. The three of them were all in the top twenty in usage rate for NBAers playing more than ten minutes per game last season. This is just a statistical way of saying that the Cavs starters need the ball—a lot. The twenty-fifth player on that list? Dion Waiters. That means the Cavaliers, one of thirty teams in the league, have 16 percent of the players most likely to end a possession.
There simply is not enough ball to go around for the starters when you have four guys on one team in the top twenty-five for usage rate. Take a look at the hypothetical starting five with Dion Waiters, and the usage rates for each guy in the lineup. I assumed a usage rate of 15 percent for whoever starts at the five, whether that’s Varejao or Thompson. The total usage rate of that group is 130.70 percent, meaning that we need thirty percent more ball than mathematically exists to meet everyone’s consumption level.4
Obviously, everyone is willing to cut back on the possessions they use and share the ball a little more, but keeping Dion in the starting five makes the adjustment that much more difficult. It’s like having a party for the Browns offensive line and only ordering one large pizza. Instead of asking Dion to settle for two pepperonis and a cup of garlic sauce, tell him to show up at the end of the first quarter or start of the second quarter when the wings are delivered and there’s more food to go around.
The other reason the Cavs need Dion Waiters to come off the bench is the Cavs currently lack backcourt depth. We’ve got a lot of dudes beyond Kyrie and Dion, sure, but no one that Cavs fans can feel confident carrying the offense for the longer stretches when Kyrie and LeBron are out of the game. What you want out of sixth men are Kool-Aid players: instant offense. Just add water and boom! Points.5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYS7aQY1iZI
Although David Blatt will likely do some interesting and unusual things with rotations, LeBron and Love have customarily played the entire first quarter thus far in their careers, as both played over over eleven minutes per first quarter last season. Kyrie usually does, too. Kool-Aid players give teams juice and maintain production while the team’s starters and biggest threats take a short rest. Moreover, they annoy the hell out of opposing teams looking to get a breather while their own starters towel off, enjoy some Gatorade, and admire the girls working the t-shirt cannon.
As of today, the Cavs don’t have anyone off the bench suited for this role. If the Cavs eventually land Ray Allen, it’s not a part he can play. If the Cavs acquire anyone else, it’s going to be a defensive-minded swingman or a rim protector; not a ball handler. Dion Waiters can do things off the dribble, get to the rim, and create his own offense. He’s a Kool-Aid player. Dion had as many drives per game as LeBron last season. Only 46.5 percent of Dion’s buckets last year came from assists, meaning that he was creating his own shot a majority of the time. The other perimeter guys like Dellavedova, and James Jones and Mike Miller (both of whom played shooting guard with the Heat) were assisted on 68.9, 91.8, and 82.4 percent of their made field goals last season. All three of them need to play with shot creators like Waiters, Irving, or James.
If you watched a lot of the Miami Heat last season, think of how non-threatening and docile their offense seemed when LeBron sat at the end of the first quarter.
Imagine a Wednesday night in Sacramento. It’s the second game of a back-to-back after a double overtime game in Golden State the night before. The Cavs are drained, look lethargic, and are clinging to a three-point deficit at the end of the first quarter. Then, Dion Waiters comes off the bench at the start of the second quarter, fresh after sitting out the entire first quarter. Dion hits a quick layup followed by an and one, a step-back fifteen footer, and a pull up three in transition. Timeout Kings. Suddenly, it’s a 10-2 run and the Cavs are up by five, leading to an orgy of chest bumps and high fives, leading to LeBron having an extra four minutes of rest. This is the value of having an offensive force come of the bench.
Those in the “always start your best five!!” camp need to look no further than the Clippers and the Spurs for counterexamples to that line of thought. Both teams were in the top six in scoring offense in the league, each of them with one of their top four scorers coming of the bench. The Spurs won the Finals and the Clippers, outgunned by the Thunder in the playoffs, would have been either the best or second best team in the Eastern Conference last season.
As for who to replace Dion with in the starting lineup, more options may come soon. (Jesus, is that you?) But in the meantime, I think Dellavedova is fit for the part. Yea, I said it! Not only will I misspell his name about five thousand times this year, but he’s shown to be a capable player. All the Cavs need from the last member of their starting five is a willing defender who will move on offense, whip the ball around, hit open shots, and otherwise stay the hell out of the way of the other four. The first quarter unit is going to be offensively destructive with or without Dion Waiters.
Last season, in his rookie year, Dellavedova was a good catch-and-shoot player.6 His 58.2 eFG percentage was better than Dion’s and his 39.2 percent on catch-and-shoot three pointers was narrowly behind Dion’s. Dellavedova is also a better team defender. The Cavs’ opposition scored 7.2 less points per 100 possessions when Dellavedova was on the floor than when he was off the floor (strong evidence that the Cavs’ defense was better with Dellavedova on the floor).7 The starters need a guy who is defensively present, but who otherwise mostly stands in the corner and knocks down threes.
Moreover, Dellavedova’s usage rate is the neighborhood of the type of glue guy you want in your starting five as a placeholder for your offensively dynamic sixth man. The chart below shows comparisons between Waiters/Dellavedova, and the other Glue/Kool-Aid Instant Offense guy combos discussed.8
Dion Waiters is like a French Bulldog, a fiery little guy whose bark is often worse than his bite. But make no mistake, he’ll bite your damn hand off if you’re not careful. The Cavs are going to want to have him around. But sometimes, you just got let Dion off the leash. The Cavs starting five already has three ball-dominant players that will constrain Dion in early parts of the game. When David Blatt starts sitting starters, whether that’s at the start of the second quarter or later in the first, that’s when it’s time to let Dion off the leash to run around and bite ankles with the second unit.
Will Dion accept this role quietly? Almost definitely not. He’s made it clear he wants to start, tempered by some half-hearted platitudes about how he’ll do whatever the team needs. His reluctance is understandable, as he’s prideful and also a little bit of a maniac. For some reason, allegedly punching a teammate doesn’t do wonders for your reputation. I tend to give him the benefit of the doubt, as last year was such a toxic situation that even Zydrunas Ilgauskas would have said things like, “Back off, man, Big Z out here to get buckets, balloutandgetmine! I got ‘dis.”
This year is different. Between LeBron, Marion, and Miller, there’s no question that it’s their way or the highway. There are legitimate, credible voice of authority in the locker room instead of, you know, Alonzo Gee. Voices who understand the value and importance of sacrificing things like starter minutes. After they reasoned with Dion, hopefully he’d realize that it will be more fun to run the show with the twos for spells every game. Crawford and Ginobili still get fourth quarter minutes with the ones and keep their scoring numbers elevated. Whenever Dion becomes restless and unruly, the veterans can give him “I have seen the top of the mountain, and it is good” speech, and remind him that such moves are necessary.
If Dion embraces the role, I think Dion could be a huge and necessary component in winning a championship. I don’t know if the Cavs can win without Dion Waiters being a crucial piece. It may be a choice as simple as valuing his own numbers and smack-talking over the team’s. Dion was right when he said, “men lie women lie buckets DNT.” While buckets DNT lie, neither do championships. Nope, champions definitely DNT. points lie, money lie, rings DNT.
- For sake of fairness, there is also small but mighty group who chooses to the same with Kyrie Irving, but this is largely a local contingent where Dion’s critics extend well beyond Ohio lines. [↩]
- Kyrie Irving is near the top of that list as well. [↩]
- Ramon Sessions occupied this role for the Cavs from 2010-12, and Delonte West did pre-Decision. But neither of them had the offensive potential Dion Waiters has. Other current examples of good sixth men include J.R. Smith on the Knicks and Nick Young on the Lakers. [↩]
- Assuming usage rate is constant, which of course it isn’t. This a simplification. [↩]
- Yes, Kool-Aid also requires sugar, some stirring, and some ice in cubed form. Settle down before directing me to the Kool-Aid Wikipedia page. [↩]
- From NBA.com’s player tracking data. [↩]
- Via basketballreference.com. Dellavedova’s net plus-minus per 100 possessions was also over eight points higher than Dion’s. [↩]
- I used Jared Dudley instead of J.J. Redick from the Clippers because Redick has a high usage rate, Dudley has played shooting guard in his career, and even though he primarily played the three and four for the Clippers last year, he mostly just tried on defense and shot threes (which composed over half of his field goal attempts). Also, I’ll now answer the “Well why doesn’t Harden come off the bench anymore, then?” question. Short answer: the Rockets can’t afford it. He no longer plays with Durant and Westbrook, who together use over sixty percent of their team’s possessions while in the game. The Rockets need Harden to score. [↩]
22 Comments
I am about as big a Dion defender as you’ll find, but I am convinced by this article. More specifically, the “there isn’t enough ball to go around” arguments do it for me.
Unless Dion has become a lights-out type of shooter over the off-season (which it appears he has been trying to do), it probably makes a good deal of sense for him to lead the second unit. However, if it is shown that Dion has become a significantly better shooter than Delly, maybe you keep him with the starters.
I agree that Kyle did a fantastic job on this article and is quite convincing.
I would suggest that even if Dion has become a significantly better shooter than Delly, then Kyles arguments still stand for the starters as it would allow Dion to demonstrate those traits with the 2nd unit and then finish the game with the crunch guys (ala Thunder with Harden).
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The one thing I don’t get is why everyone assumes that Dion will get blamed for the losses instead of LeBron/Love/Irving. I suspect it is because I stay in my lane here and other places that have more thoughtful commentariat (rather than twitter), but I would expect that the players with the highest expectations are the ones that get blamed. That 9-8 start with the Heat was falling on the shoulders of LeBron & Wade not figuring out how to share the ball, etc.
Dion has a weird reputation nationally. Locally, fans love him because he’s a bulldog. But nationally, where Kyrie Irving is the star and Waiters is the *other* guy, the other guy is expected to fit in with the star and not vice-versa. He’s chastised for his shot selection, even when he’s hitting. His attitude is endearing to Cavs fans (which, in the end, should be most important) but is scrutinized in larger, more broad outlets.
Your point is accurate—it should be up to the stars to make it work. But the NBA is a star-driven league. Everyone else is left fighting for the scraps, financially as well as in levels of respectability.
“This will be unfair and arbitrary, but it’s inevitable”
It might seem arbitrary sometimes, but hardly unfair. Or maybe I missed more of the Cavs 24 and 33 win seasons than I thought, which wouldn’t be a bad thing. Waiters hasn’t racked up a career .032 WS/48 on accident. 12th on the team in ORtg, right between Jack and Gee, and 16th in DRtg. His defensive shortcomings are well known, but the offense didn’t exactly succeed with him out there, which makes sense considering he finished 55th of 70 2-guards in TS%. I agree that Waiters should lead the bench unit, and Delly should start, but that’s just as much as putting Waiters on the floor for less time and against lesser opponents than it is about roster fit.
I honestly can’t believe there is much of an argument on this. The Irving-Waiters backcourt pairing played a big part in sinking this team’s expectations last year. Neither have yet to play defense at the level necessary to get this team where we now expect it to go. You can cover up for one if you have strong defenders on the floor, but starting both with Love is asking for trouble a lot of nights. When Varejao inevitably misses a significant portion of the season? Watch out. Dellavedova is that defender of the guys currently on the roster. It’s not an accident that he the best +/- on the roster last year.
I’m curious to see how the blame falls as well. I wonder if Mike Brown will have a mental breakdown if Blatt doesn’t get most of the blame for losses.
“He’s chastised for his shot selection”
A career .500 TS% will do that to you.
I like Waiters’ toughness too, and still think the potential is there. But he’s got to take a few less not-set 20+ footers and at least show a care for the defensive end of the court.
Pat’s comparison of Delly to Sefolosha is still my favorite mark for him.
Agree. My concern with Delly is that he already is at, or very close to his peak. He’s already 24, and is a bit undersized at the 2. I think he’s fine to play this role right now, but they should look for an upgrade. I think starting him will also help when it comes time to add another piece, and we can sell high on him.
“The three of them were all in the top twenty in usage rate for NBAers playing more than ten minutes per game last season. This is just a statistical way of saying that the Cavs starters need the ball—a lot.”
That’s not a statistical way of saying they *need* the ball, that’s a statistical way of saying they *had* the ball. Usage doesn’t say whether or not them having it was a good or bad thing. It does not mean that they should have the ball and be ending possessions, it just explains that they did.
A player like Love or Lebron that shoots incredibly efficiently and turns the ball over relatively rarely can have the same usage rate as someone who shoots poorly and turns the ball over relatively frequently. Looking at usage rate alone to explain that they “need” the ball is unhelpful.
In a vacuum, I’d agree. Waiters, however, is a volume player. Like many before him (Jamison, for one), there’s little in the way of redeeming on-court qualities for the guy. He’s a great passer, but doesn’t take advantage. He’s undersized for his position. He needs the ball to have an impact. And I say this as a HUGE fan of Waiters. He’s one of the few guys who makes me smile every time he opens his mouth.
I wasn’t necessarily making any determination about Dion. I’m just saying the methodology of saying, “Well because a player has a high usage rating, that means they need the ball” is flawed. It’s a completely different conversation as to whether or not Dion actually does need the ball to make an impact.
Fair.
Mr. Kool Aid oh yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeea! But I’m sticking with Dion off the bench as a potential sixth man of the year candidate.
I don;t see this as an either-or scenario. He’s a very young guy who got his body ready for the NBA. He can log a lot of minutes playing a lot of minutes and doing more scoring when with 2nd unit. Ray Allen can’t give you more than 12 a night, so there’s plenty of time for Dion to play. If he gets his defense to league-avg, let the man run.
If somebody doesnt like Dion as a player, wouldn’t they want him playing less minutes no matter what – and then hidden with the starters to mask his ineffectiveness?
If you like Dion as a player, wouldn;t you want him to get as many minutes as possible. It seems a lot of people say – Dion isn’t all that – make him come off the bench (where’d he be leading the 2nd unit?).
Dion has gotten “Manny Acta” level instruction from Byrion Scott (who did nothing to make him play better defense or improve shot selection) but rewarded him with lots of minutes – and Mike Brown who let Teflon Don Kyrie do his thing but let Dion get scapegoated. I think we should all see what Blatt can do for the man before we decide his role.
Scott, respectfully – outside some intense followers I think even locally people are down on Dion whereas Kyrie gets kid glove treatment. Just my 2 cents.
While I agree that Dion would be better used in a 6th-man role, I’m curious as to the very nature of the “second unit” versus a rotation. Is there a decent analysis available of teams that use a 2nd unit moreso than just staggering a rotation? I’m sure there are stats available of lineups, etc., at which I’m not well-versed, and I only watch a limited amount of NBA to get a reasonable sense as to whether this unit-vs-rotation is even debated tactically, but I’m generally thinking with all this Dion debate that the Cavs would be better off staggering his and the Big 3’s minutes to always have 2+ of them on the floor.
For me unit/rotation aren’t mutually exclusive I mean Waiters can be the first man off the bench and still be the leader of a second unit. It’s really just semantics.
I don’t think it is semantics, though. A team can choose to bring in a whole 2nd unit, or they can stagger the minutes in a rotation. I’m just curious as to how much of either method particular teams tend to use.
You don’t see many if any NBA teams substitute entire groups so I’d have to say rotations would be the norm.
I can understand the reasons for not starting Dion, but I think it would be better to start him, and here’s why;
1) Starting Dion does not prevent him being a key part of the 2nd unit. He can play the first 6 minutes, and then come back with the 2nd unit later, and be used with them the rest of the game or other spots, as needed.
2) Dion is the most talented 2 guard on the team, and has a chance to become a complete player at both ends of the floor, so lets give him that chance. He wants to be the starter, has worked toward that goal, and has shown that he’ll respond when challenged, as he did last year when he finally got the starter nod (I call this good Dion). Conversely, he appears to be less engaged and less effective when he’s not the starter (bad Dion). If Delly starts, I think we’ll see a lot of bad Dion. I prefer to see good Dion.
3) Dion is likely to play 30 minutes per night or more. If Kyrie and LeBron each play about 35 minutes, Dion will play with them, so he has to learn how to do this anyway.
4) I like Delly but there is nothing athletically that he can do better than Dion.
5) A big part of Dion’s role will be in the fast break offense, especially with Love/Lebron on the floor. Would you rather see Dion running the floor for a wicked dunk or Delly hoping he doesn’t get caught from behind while attempting a layup?
I think it’d be best to let the kid start and take him out early so that he can get back in by the start of the 2nd quarter. A smart coach should easily be able to work it so that between Kyrie, Dion, Lebron, and Love, at least two of them are on the court at all times without overplaying any of them. It’s just about being smart with rotations.
“Super instant offense sixth man” is generally ideal for two types of people. The first are guys like Manu, who are injury prone and can’t play heavy minutes. Dion doesn’t fit this mold. The second is great scorers and horrible defenders who can actually wind up hurting the starting unit more than helping them. These are guys like Jamal Crawford or Nate Robinson, with OKC James Harden being on the edge. Dion MIGHT fit this mold, but his defensive effort this season will be very telling in that regard.