Nate McMillan is the latest name to be attached to the Cavs coaching search
June 11, 2014The inimitable Josh Tomlin: old dogs, new tricks, and revisited parades
June 11, 2014
The Philadelphia 76ers have reportedly inquired about trading for the Cavaliers’ No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, with forward Thaddeus Young potentially part of a theoretical deal.
The Sixers hold picks Nos. 3 and 10 in the draft but are reportedly unwilling to trade both selections. They would, however, “possibly” give up the No. 3 pick along with Young, who reportedly was none too pleased about the team’s tanking of the 2013-14 season.
If the Cavaliers acquired Young, it could conceivably fill their void at small forward, but the team would then have to gamble that the player they covet at No. 1 would fall to them at No. 3. Given the Sixers’ picks and the lack of superstars that appear to be on their way to Cleveland in any ancillary deal, they make the most sense out of any logical trade partner—after all, they’d love to acquire the pick for which they spent the entire season tanking. But is what they’re offering enough?
The 25-year-old Young is under contract for $9.1 million next season and then has a player option for $9.7 million in 2015-16, so the team’s flexibility would not be impacted beyond repair. Benefitting from fast, shoddy team-wide play, Young averaged career-highs in points (17.9), assists (2.3), steals (2.1) and 3-pointers (1.1) this past season. His 2.11 steals per game ranked third in the NBA and he is the first forward to average over 2.0 per game in a season since 2007-08.
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Photograph by Kathy Willens/AP Photo
31 Comments
Is what they’re offering enough?
No. Not if you believe in the health of Embid’s back.
Thaddeus Young is great example of how an up-tempo system can inflate numbers. He had the worst eFG% and TS% of his career last season, which can definitely also be attributed to him playing with a bunch of awful players and having to be “the guy” when he’s not suited for that role. He’s a borderline starter for $9.5M… not worth making the trade if the Cavs like one of the top prospects better than the others.
thank you for saving me the typing. I completely agree (and MWC patrons should also take note).
also, imagine this worst case scenario: Philly takes Embiid, Milwaukee takes Wiggins, leaving Parker to Cavs.
Now, we have Bennett, Parker, and Young who are ALL SF-PF hybrid guys. Having one of those guys is beneficial to a team. Having 3? Detrimental.
I actually like Thaddeus Young and think he was a victim of the 76ers lack of, well, anything last year (and his previous seasons demonstrate it). If we could somehow guarantee to get Embiid or Wiggins from the #3 pick, then I would make the trade (the only way to do it is for Philly to agree to have us take Parker and simultaneously trade him to them for the #3 pick + T.Young. I believe that is legal per NBA rules).
If we can get Wiggins at #3, then I would make the deal. We’d still have just enough room to throw $$$ at Monroe in FA. Pull that off and we still get our frontcourt scorer along with fixing the wings.
PG: Kyrie, Delly
SG: Wiggins, Waiters
SF: T.Young, Karasev, Felix
PF: Tristan, Bennett
C: Monroe, Andy
I’m not a huge fan of Thaddeus at SF and we still need another backup wing, but that is definitely a playoff team in the East with potential for more if we can figure out how to get everyone to play defense (not easy with that group).
Ok, no #3, and #10…
Then, #3, and your first rounder next year, and a couple of pairs of underpants, errrr, this and next years second rounders?
So, in exchange for first overall we’d get the guy left at #3 plus a guy disgruntled about losing and in his contract walk year.
Pass. In a deep, talented draft there is a franchise guy. Correctly identify him and pick him. Do not overthink, do not squander your undeserved good fortune.
Wouldn’t Philly be trading up to #1 to take Wiggins?
Any trade for the #1 pick I would make that team take Jarrett Jack back.
Sure, Young scored more last year, but he did it less efficiently, his rebounding suffered and he turned the ball over more. It was a worse year than last for sure. I do not want this fellow.
yes. It’s like when you used to talk about how great David Klingler was at Houston because he threw for 65,000 yards in 4 games. It’s the system, folks. Add that to the fact that NOBODY else can play on that team, and you’ve got yourself a “superstar.”
regardless of those facts, I don’t like to buy high on guys who are coming off of career years. They often have inflated stats or just won’t be able to duplicate that sort of effort again.
I have seen Wiggins and Parker mentioned as Philly top targets. Regardless, if they want to trade up for Wiggins, then it doesn’t guarantee us Wiggins or Embiid, so I say no.
is next year’s 1st rounder protected as well as a teenage girl trying to get onto the MTV reality show? if so, hmmmm….
so, you like the idea for trading for Thaddeus Young then because he had a career worst year, right?
God awful trade for the Cavs. Give up your choice of anyone in the draft for the least desired of the top 3 (who will probably be an SF/PF tweener) and a 1 year rental on another SF/PF tweener to add to our existing surplus of SF/PF tweeners? Idiotic from a Cleveland perspective. This team needs solid core players, not one year rentals.
Give it up Philly.
We’ll respect you in the morning.
a bunch of tweeners is not going to make us a weiner
That next morning I’ll even bring them a Panera cinnamon crunch bagel WITH honey walnut cream cheese. I swear.
I agree, and I do think Thaddeus Young is useful and a decent player, but not at $9.5M per year.
No, not even close to enough. To give up the #1 pick, we need to be blown away with an offer, like #3 plus Noel. You don’t give up the #1 pick in a deal thats fair for both sides, you must fleece the other team.
On a side note, philly’s GM is pretty savvy and I wouldn’t be too comfortable trading with him (just like avoiding trades with the Spurs, Patriots, etc.). Wiggins fares poorly in advanced metrics analysis so, despite what the media is reporting, I’d guess that Philly is really after embiid or Parker, who are the superior prospects (and likely won’t last to #3 as is).
While wiggins is being reported as Philly’s target at #1, I think it’s a smokescreen from them. Their GM is very smart and analytics driven (hence Noel/carter Williams last year). Wiggins is a poor prospect, at best, from an analytics/metrics perspective. As it stands now, it seems like Embiid goes 1, Parker goes 2 (chi proximity) and wiggins/exum are available at 3. Philly has a pg, so taking exum would necessitate trading carter Williams, hence the trade rumors last week. Otherwise, philly is stuck with wiggins. So, from their perspective, I could see them floating the idea of taking wiggins 1 when, in fact, they really want embiid or Parker at 1.
disagree completely. Wiggins should rate quite high on analytical models. Those models take age, length, leaping ability, and all of the other athleticism factors into account at which Wiggins excels and Parker is merely above average.
as far as college stats:
Wiggins & Parker FT & 3pt shooting mostly wash out equal. Parker was better finishing in the paint (but, he should be as the receiver of most passes rather than the initiator of the drive as Wiggins usually was).
Overall, Wiggins (1.415) was a slightly more efficient scorer than Parker (1.343) according to ESPN
Wiggins (SG) rebounding relative position is more impressive than Jabari’s (PF). All other stats mostly wash out between them (ast, stl, blk, pf, to).
Wiggins fares poorly in advanced metrics analysis
I put the ESPN stats above, so let’s move onto sports-reference:
Wiggins TS% 56.3, 4.9WS
Parker TS% 55.8%, 5.5WS*
*strangely, Parker actually scores higher on defensive WS here (defensive rebounding being the main factor) when it is pretty obvious how bad he is at defense (Wiggins certainly had bad stretches too though).
Now, Parker does have a 28.1PER compared to a 21.4PER for Wiggins, but also please note that Jabari’s USG% was much higher which does account for some of that (JP-32.3, AW-26.3).
Add in Wiggins by far superior athleticism and ability to play SG/SF (as opposed to likely being PF-only by Jabari…or terrible defense SF) and Andrew is the superior guy.
Pass.
They could offer the 3rd, Young and the 10th and I’d still turn it down because we’d probably end up with Parker, who might be the only long term piece from this deal, and some mediocre player with the 10th pick. If they threw in Noel and next year’s #1, then ok, but that’s not happening.
BTW, the GM who would have been the most likely to take Parker over Wiggins or Embiid got fired this year for doing stuff just like that.
I see what you’re saying, and in my previous post, I was not referring to Wiggins’ length, athleticism, etc. I should’ve been more clear that, based solely on his stats at Kansas, Wiggins is vastly overrated compared to his draft projection.
Kevin Pelton (ESPN), Hoops Analyst, and Dean Demakis each use a different analytical model to rate prospects. Despite using differing methods, they are united in a view of Wiggins being overrated. Pelton (his analysis will be out in a week or so) has repeatedly said that Luol Deng is a realistic expectation for Wiggins: a solid to above average SF who might make an all star game or two. The other two (linked below) are even more pessimistic. For the sake of brevity, I left out a few other sites, but can dig them up if necessary.
http://hoopsanalyst.com/?p=1257
(“Andrew Wiggins will likely become a solid NBA SF and maybe even hit an all-star game or two during his career. But I don’t see him as anywhere near the franchise-saving superstar he had been hyped as.”)
http://deanondraft.com/2014/02/14/andrew-wiggins-an-ordinary-player-in-an-extraordinary-body/
(“It’s more likely that Wiggins becomes Marvin Williams (or worse) than Paul George (or better). It is time to update the narrative that he is a rare prospect. Andrew Wiggins has rare tools but his skill level and employment of his tools are alarmingly worse than advertised.”)
Yeah, that’s been a big pet peeve of mine this NBA draft season. Writers are throwing stuff out there on stats w/o other measures that are proven to be necessary added in. Also, they are not using proper context for many of the players.
Weiland’s article starts off with a terrible assumption. That Wiggins and Parker are both the same as NBA SFs. Parker is a SF-PF hybrid and Wiggins is a SG-SF type player. Parker spends more time in the paint and is a bigger bodied guy. He better be good at rebounds because he doesn’t have the foot-speed to keep up with the wings that Wiggins does have (and rebounding is the one stat on his chart that truly separates Jabari). He does indicate why he doesn’t feel that Wiggins can play SG in the NBA, I just happen to disagree with him and I don’t find his reasoning compelling.
One other note: Parker got a bit out of shape when he was injured and has reportedly been out of shape at initial workouts after the season. He’s never been considered a gym rat (Embiid & Wiggins have been noted as such).
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Dean’s article was much more compelling as it brought out the obvious flaw in Wiggin’s game (finishing at the rim). He should be better there given his skillset and he wasn’t. Not the biggest fan of using volume & efficiency as he does, but the most obvious flaw in Wiggins game is obvious.
I’m willing to accept that from him though in return for a better overall tool-set and, as I mentioned, I’d be looking at moving him more to SG-SF on the wing rather than PF that I believe Jabari ends at.
Yeah, that’s been a big pet peeve of mine this NBA draft season. Writers are throwing stuff out there on stats w/o other measures that are proven to be necessary added in. Also, they are not using proper context for many of the players.
Weiland’s article starts off with a terrible assumption. That Wiggins and Parker are both the same as NBA SFs. Parker is a SF-PF hybrid and Wiggins is a SG-SF type player. Parker spends more time in the paint and is a bigger bodied guy. He better be good at rebounds because he doesn’t have the foot-speed to keep up with the wings that Wiggins does have (and rebounding is the one stat on his chart that truly separates Jabari). He does indicate why he doesn’t feel that Wiggins can play SG in the NBA, I just happen to disagree with him and I don’t find his reasoning compelling.
One other note: Parker got a bit out of shape when he was injured and has reportedly been out of shape at initial workouts after the season. He’s never been considered a gym rat (Embiid & Wiggins have been noted as such).
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Dean’s article was much more compelling as it brought out the obvious flaw in Wiggin’s game (finishing at the rim). He should be better there given his skillset and he wasn’t. Not the biggest fan of using volume & efficiency as he does, but the most obvious flaw in Wiggins game is obvious.
I’m willing to accept that from him though in return for a better overall tool-set and, as I mentioned, I’d be looking at moving him more to SG-SF on the wing rather than PF that I believe Jabari ends at.
Fair enough, agree to disagree. Pelton’s article comes out in a week, so that should be a good read on these top 3 (4?).
Regardless, I think we can agree that Embiid, if healthy, should be the choice at #1. An elite C combined with an elite PG is a path to a championship.
No doubt we agree that Embiid is the top prospect (assuming his back is okay).
And, I agree that Parker is a top3 guy too. I just have him firmly at #3 (and really, a bad fit on our particular team though if it came down to it, you move the other guys before you pass up on him).
If there was any further doubt about Embiid at #1, Weiland came out with a new article today.
http://hoopsanalyst.com/?p=1259
Not interested in Thad Young. I like him as a player, but not at this cost.
Only way we make this deal is if a future 1st or #10 is in play. Let’s say it’s 3&10 for 1. I could be down with that if we know they are moving up for Wiggins and we believe Milwaukee will pass on Embiid(because we passed on himk for his back 😉 !)
I really like Embiid. It took me awhile to jump off of the Parker/Wiggins train, but Embiid is my guy. My thoughts are thatthe Cavs want him, but are floating rumors out there to see what Philly or Milwaukee will do to get “their” guy. If Embiid “Fails” our physical, Milwaukee may pass on him, especially if they’ve been looking at Parker so much. A deal that I coyuld see happening would be this…
We draft Wiggins #1.With the Bucks on the clock, they have to decide on the “local” kid with a high floor, incredible motor and All Star potential or the Center with back issues that the Cavs passed on. I think they go Parker there. If they go Embiid, then we stick it out with Wiggins and have a 1-2 punch to build around. But if the Bucks take Parker, than we swap Wiggins for Embiid and the #10 pick with Philly. We get our guy with no risk of landing Parker. Now someone call me out