Ohio State’s schedule a point of frustration

The Buckeyes are undefeated, riding a 19-game winning streak with Urban Meyer at the head of the program, and they have a favorable path to finish the season undefeated.¹ They host Penn State tonight under the lights, and while the Nittany Lions have a talented freshman quarterback and the Ohio State defense has been a little suspect this season (particularly the secondary), the biggest battle for fans is that the Buckeyes could do everything right, win out, go 14-0, and be shut out of a second straight national title chance with a 26-game win streak in tact. As absurd as it sounds for a Big Ten team, if 2 of the 3 between Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State don’t drop a game, it could very well happen. Here are just some of the things working against them.

The Leaders Division isn’t as good as the Legends Division this year

Before starting play today, the Legends division had three 1-loss teams in Michigan, Michigan State, and Nebraska, and no team had more than three losses. In the Leaders, the best after Ohio State are 2-loss Penn State and Wisconsin, and they have the three .500 or below teams in the conference with Indiana, Illinois, and Purdue. Ohio State also has the (dis)advantage of not playing either 1-loss Nebraska or Michigan State this season (at least until a potential B1G Championship Game, that is). With Penn State still trying to work their way back to what they were in a Big Ten power and Maryland (5-2) and Rutgers (4-2) joining OSU’s East division next season, we’ll see the dynamic change again next season. The Buckeyes effectively trade Purdue, Wisconsin, and Illinois for Michigan and Michigan State while adding the two newcomers. Despite my dislike in losing the annual Wisconsin game, I’d say it’s likely to be a net add at least next year.

The Big Ten is in (another) down year without a second dominant team

This could be one of the biggest and most frustrating points about not just this but many of the last 7 or 8 seasons in the Big Ten. Ohio State’s largely held up its end of the bargain, but there has been no second consistent power that Ohio State could hand its only loss of the season to, meanwhile earning likely a Top 10 victory in the process. Multiple teams bunched at the top with OSU included hasn’t happened since 2010, when Michigan State and Wisconsin both finished 11-2 and 7-1 in the conference. Wisconsin and Northwestern were both wins this season against ranked teams, but Northwestern has lost again and Wisconsin has that blemish and end-game blunder against Arizona State. The bottom line is that Ohio State’s going to continue to get dinged when two-thirds of their schedule is against teams that are not playing as well as they traditionally have.

Cal and San Diego State don’t traditionally suck (but they do this year)

There has been so much talk about the four-game non-conference slate of Buffalo, San Diego State, California, and Florida A&M this season that I’ll probably never forget the four teams that comprised it. Look, I’m not a big fan of scheduling a 1-AA school at all, but at least schedule them for Week 1. Buffalo is having a decent season right now at 5-2, but San Diego State is 3-3 and California is a pathetic 1-6. When the Buckeyes scheduled California for a home and home several years ago, I’m guessing that they were expecting a non-conference tilt at least in the same ballpark as the ones they’ve scheduled in the past (Texas in ’05-’06, USC in ’08-’09, and Miami in ’10-’11) and have scheduled in the future (Virginia Tech in ’14-’15, Oklahoma in ’16-’17, North Carolina in ’17-’18, and TCU in ’18-’19). In the new world of the 4-team playoff and a 9-game conference schedule, it will be necessary to schedule one high profile game, one middling power-conference team, and only one MAC-type team to beef up the schedule.

Strength of schedule

Even with all of those things working against OSU’s schedule strength, they currently come in at 76th (according to the Sagarin ratings, where they currently rank 8th). The other three ahead of them in the BCS standings, you ask? Alabama is 43rd, Florida State is 42nd, and Oregon is 68th. Alabama scheduled a 1-AA (Chattanooga) along with winless Georgia State and 3-4 Colorado State. Oregon scheduled 1-AA Nicholls State, 2-5 Virginia, and 4-3 Tennessee out of conference outside a 9-game Pac-12 schedule. Florida State plays in the ACC, currently ranked behind the Big Ten in conference schedule strength, and they’ve played 1-AA Bethune-Cookman, scheduled 1-6 Idaho, and beat lowly 3-4 Nevada as well.

What the Buckeyes need is to run the table (obviously), hope Michigan doesn’t lose another game until they face them, and beat a 1-loss Nebraska or Michigan State in the Big Ten Championship Game. From there, if two of the three teams ahead of them don’t lose, it may take a convincing Rose Bowl victory and finger crossing to hope for a split national title that did not become a reality last season due at least in part to the stigma of the bowl ban. All I know is I’ll be relieved when we go to the 4-team playoff next year when it can be settled on the field.

Do the Buckeyes on paper look like the same team as the Crimson Tide, Ducks, or Seminoles? Not defensively they don’t, but that’s why you play the games. I would’ve said the same thing in 2003 against the Hurricanes.

(Photo: Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

1. Yes, jinx, jinx, jinxity jinx. [↩]