Uni Talk: So, about these Browns uniforms…
October 24, 2013Survey Says? Digging deeper into the Cleveland Indians fan survey
October 24, 2013The San Francisco Giants have two World Series titles in the past four years. They have the most beautiful venue in all of professional sports in AT&T Park. If you haven’t been there, I highly suggest making the long trek. It is worth it. They have a longtime General Manager in Brian Sabean who has shown over the years to be a shrewd businessman. Ownership has been willing to pony up at the trade deadline for a big salary player to help the team get over the hump (i.e. Carlos Beltran, Hunter Pence, Jason Schmidt, etc). They have also made two of the worst long term signings in recent memory, grossly overpaying for Barry Zito and Aaron Rowand. But what they did two days ago was a borderline reckless move that may have ruined the market for free agent starting pitchers.
Tuesday night, I was stunned to hear that the Giants and current starter Tim Lincecum had agreed to a two-year, $35 million contract. Once a hard throwing, strikeout machine, Timmy has now become a shell of his former self who has had to learn how to get by on finesse stuff, rather than his once over-powering fastball. Look at the dropoff in his performance since the beginning of 2012:
’12 – 33 starts – 186 IP/10-15/5.18 ERA/1.46 WHIP/190 K/90 BB/23 HR/-1.7 WAR
’13 – 32 starts – 197.2 IP/10-14/4.37 ERA/1.31 WHIP/193 K/76 BB/21 HR/-0.6 WAR
Here is what those numbers tell me. Lincecum is a middle to back of the rotation, durable, innings eater. That is a far cry from the two-time Cy Young award winner who averaged 244 K’s per season from ’08-’11. He is still 29 years old but his best days are clearly behind him. It doesn’t mean Lincecum isn’t a guy you would like to have in the third or fourth spot in your rotation.
Does a guy like this deserve $17.5 million per season for the next two years? Most baseball experts had him pegged more like a two-year, $20 million guy. In fact, if Timmy had hit the open market, there is ZERO chance he would have come anywhere close $35 million unless the Dodgers and their insane “throw as much money as we can to trump everyone” routine that the Yankees patented in the early part of this century came calling.
Timmy’s agent Rick Thurman should be arrested because he just robbed the Giants. More power to him. Â The deal has been universally panned by everyone.
So why should you care about what the Giants do with their money? Well first and foremost, Sabean has now set a bar for free agent starters that is excessive to say the least. Your Cleveland Indians have two such pitchers whom they would love to bring back, but if going by Lincecum’s new deal is any measuring stick, you can all but forget about Ubaldo Jimenez or Scott Kazmir coming back to Cleveland.
After watching him carry the rotation down the stretch coupled with his AL-best 1.71 post-All Star break ERA, I have carried no illusions that Ubaldo would return to Cleveland. Go ahead and tender him the $13 million one year offer, watch him decline it, and take your first round draft pick as compensation.
Last winter the Chicago Cubs gave Edwin Jackson, a solid, yet unspectacular starting pitcher, four years and $52 million. That was coming off of a season in which he made 31 starts in Washington, struck out 168 in 189.2 innings pitched, gave up 23 homers, and posted an ERA of 4.03 in the National League. If Jackson received four/$52 million, what do you think Ubaldo will command?
By the way – Jackson went 8-1 with a 4.98 ERA with 135 Ks in 175.1 IP in year one of that deal.
Now with Lincecum getting an average of $17.5 over the next two years, shouldn’t Jimenez’s agents command at least five years and $15 million per? I predict at worst, someone will give him four years and $60 million.
Which brings us to Kazmir. The Tribe’s 2013 reclamation project won’t be in line for a long-term deal the way Ubaldo is. His story has been well documented. Kazmir was out of baseball, pitching in the independent league in 2012 after missing the majority of the 2011 season with injuries. Prior to his comeback with the Tribe this past season, his last full year in the bigs was 2010 with the Angels where he lost 15 games and posted an ERA of 5.94. He looked all but cooked.
But in a season of Indians coming out of nowhere to contribute, Kazmir’s story may have trumped them all. He made the team as the fifth starter out of Spring Training and made 29 starts. At times he pitched like the former All Star he was back in his days in Tampa. His stretch from June 21st to July 24th was incredible as he allowed just eight earned runs in 45 innings of work. After a dead arm period in August, Scott finished strong in September with a 2.57 ERA in his five starts. In three of the five, he put up 12, 10, and 11 strikeouts. Had the Indians advanced deeper into the playoffs, Kaz was in line to get a start.
The Tribe front office would love to have him back. He will be just 30 when the 2014 season starts and is looking to build off of the success he had in Cleveland. Keep in mind, he was doing all of this while still building his arm back up. He hadn’t thrown 150 innings ofrmore since 2010.
I originally thought a two-year deal between $16-$18 million seemed like a good price for Kazmir and that the Indians could absorb that kind of a deal, but with Lincecum doubling that number at less production (Kazmir had a higher WAR, also averaged more than a K per inning, lower ERA, lower WHIP, lower BB/9), I can’t see how his agents don’t use that contract as a benchmark.
Now obviously Lincecum’s durability and familiarity with the Giants organization has a lot to do with them paying him they way they did, but side by side on the free agent market, both seeking two-years deals, how can Kazmir not be a better value play? With Timmy getting $17.5 million per, why can’t Kazmir ask for at least $12 million?
At that price, do the Indians bite?
It should be very interesting to see how things shake out after the World Series ends and the free agency period begins. If the Indians are outbid for Kazmir’s services or choose to move on because of the high asking price, you can thank Sabean and the Giants front office.
26 Comments
That was indeed a crazy contract to give Lincecum.
#GoBoSox!
It’s pretty ridiculous…basically the opposite of a home-town discount.
I don’t understand why the Indians don’t negotiate for an option year when they sign these retread lottery ticket players. They give them the opportunity to get healthy and prove themselves at the big league level (admittedly at a bargain rate), so why not ask for a slightly-below-market option year to reward the Indians for taking the risk? How much leverage does an injured pitcher from the Independent League really have?
Well, who has the Giants money that’s looking for starting pitching next year? I can only think of the Cubs, White Sox, Mets, and Giants. The Indians may not need to overpay for Ubaldo (I say let Kazmir walk, however).
When I saw this news, I actually had the complete opposite thought. It is GREAT news for the Indians.
Like you, I harbored no thoughts of being able to retain Ubaldo. But, I wasn’t all that confident we could tender him $13mil and be sure he wouldn’t accept (and we likely don’t have that in the budget, so we need to know he won’t accept it). So, I was worried we would lose him for nothing. That worry is gone as there is very little chance he would take the tender now.
Unlike you, I don’t want Kazmir back. Yes, he was a nice back-end rotation guy on a reclamation contract. But, that means he is likely to command a “full-value” contract now. I don’t want him at full value, I want to go find 3 reclamation projects and have Mickey work his magic (so that one of them pans out). That is how low budget teams need to work. So, this is also good news that Kazmir likely priced himself out of our range instead of having us stretch our budget for a fifth starter.
Good news all around here 🙂
If someone is going to pay Kazmir more than the Indians want to, so be it. I’d rather have Kazmir for another year at a reasonable rate than count on a lottery-ticket guy, but if the Indians have to pay near-Lincecum money to keep him, they had better be sure that he can handle a #3 starter workload.
And forget about Ubaldo or Kazmir, they need to re-sign Masterson. Get that done and cobble the staff together as the budget allows.
I’m just parroting what I read on Fangraphs, but for the past two years Lincecum has been a high ERA, low xFIP guy. Basically what that means is that he does pretty well at the things pitchers have the most control over (striking guys out, limiting walks, inducing ground balls). Why he does those things well yet they don’t translate to a low runs allowed total is a question mark, but (to quote Ben Kenobi) from a certain point of view Lincecum can be seen as an effective pitcher who has just been unlucky.
Dave Cameron’s overall point at Fangraphs was that this is an indication that front offices may have stopped using ERA as a tool to evaluate the quality of starting pitching. Not sure if that’s the case, but it would explain this deal.
I don’t think the Indians can even afford to spend near Lincecum money for Masterson and that is where this deal will hurt them.
I’m not exactly sure, but I believe that the way minor league deals work may preclude option years and that sort of thing. Either that or just market forces. I’m sure other teams would have been willing to offer Kazmir comparable money without the strings.
Yeah, but I think Masterson was always bound for salaries beyond our limit. This deal didn’t change that much (if at all) imo.
it depends on your view of HR/FB%. there are some that believe it is mostly luck and there are others that believe the luck factor is only a small portion of it.
Lincecum saw his skyrocket to a 13.5% over the past 2 seasons, and it is hard for me to believe his drop in velocity did not attribute a good deal to that change (also see that many of his former FB’s transferred to LD’s the past 2 seasons, which could account by itself the jump in HRs – have not run the numbers fully to check that one).
Sticking with Fangraphs, they have him as a value of $7.9 and $4 mil the past 2 seasons. Even the 2 years before that, his value was below the $17.5mil/season that the Giants just signed him at. Now, perhaps those values are a bit low on winshares (as we have discussed before), but I find it hard to justify the jump.
Yes, agreed.
Right. Kazmir came here to re-establish his value. There was no way you were going to tie him down to another year below market value.
Considering that the park he plays in absolutely deflates HR numbers (3rd most difficult in 2013), I’d say that Fangraphs suggesting you can just regress his HR/FB numbers is way, way off.
Agreed. But I think it’s the beginning of a rationale that makes the signing look less ridiculous than it does by simply pointing at ERA and laughing.
Two other random thoughts:
a.) Are the Giants privy to some information relating to the health of Lincecum that makes them think he can improve his performance? Lingering injury finally improved? Something like that.
b.) Many pitchers have survived loss of velocity. I think part of that is adapting their entire approach to compliment a fastball that isn’t quite as fast any more. I’m sure this can take time. Maybe the Giants have seen something in Lincecum that make them think he has turned the corner with this?
Ehh, this is one of Cameron’s pet projects. I think he’s somewhat off here. The Giants are certainly using some tools that go into FIP, and not ERA, to evaluate Lincecum. His FIP numbers still don’t justify $17.5 million a year. But there’s a lot else going on here. Sabean (the guy who gave Zito all that money) gets a little antsy when he’s short on pitching, Lincecum is a fan favorite, and the team (and player) are giving off every impression that he’s going to be fixed by next season. There’s a lot of hoping and wishing and panicking going on here that go well beyond using FIP instead of ERA.
I don’t think Fangraphs really said that, but xFIP does suggest that. His HR/FB% over the last two years has been ridiculous.
Cameron thinks the deal is ridiculous too. I think he was just attempting to point out why someone (the Giants) could justify the signing.
Fangraphs/Cameron/xFIP. I’m lumping them all together. Maybe a bit unfair, but they’ve also somewhat brought that upon themselves. Cameron is the lead voice there, and it’s a site that champions itself as the slayer of ERA, picking the speck out of our eyes, while missing the plank in their own.
I don’t read Cameron enough to know his prejudices, but his overall point, just cause a pitcher has a high ERA doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher not worth a big contract, is spot on.
I just don’t know if Lincecum truly falls into that category. And it doesn’t seem like Cameron thinks he does either calling the deal “a hilarious overpay”.
And agree on the Sabean point. Seems like they do some crazy stuff over there in the bay.
Again, I don’t read Cameron enough, but I don’t think any serious stat head would ever promote looking at one metric and leave it at that.
“just cause a pitcher has a high ERA doesn’t mean he’s a bad pitcher not worth a big contract”
I’d like to see more evidence. Cameron is somewhat notorious for doing this, taking one bit of information that supports what he thinks, and start sprinting with that baton. I’m not sure who the opposite of Lincecum would be this offseason (Colon comes to mind, but he won’t get a big deal for age, not performance reasons), but I don’t see Cameron daring to step out on the branch that they guy won’t get a big deal because of how teams value ERA and xFIP.
I’m not saying that’s incorrect, I think there is decent reason to believe that Lincecum will be better than his ERA numbers say, I’m just saying there I haven’t seen enough evidence to convince me that the market has finally started to listen to Cameron, as much as he wants to believe so.
But that appears to me to be exactly what Cameron is doing here, suggesting that all will be explained if you just follow xFIP. I, obviously, take some issues with Cameron’s previous work, so I’m more than willing to admit that I may be reading into this incorrectly and unfairly.
So your point isn’t that Cameron is completely wrong about ERA not being the best evaluator of value, but that pointing to the Lincecum deal as evidence that ERA is dead is a bit much?
I’d agree with.
If this deal indicates anything to me, it’s that front offices must have a whole lot of data foreign to the public that they make decisions on. Maybe it’s sabermetric number crunching that would blow our minds and make FIP look foolish. Maybe it’s about fan loyalty and how losing a player would influence attendance.
All of which goes to my bigger point- just looking at Lincecum’s ERA and calling this a dumb move seems foolish to me. Granted, front offices make bad moves, but they usually do so because they have what they believe is good information.
Fair enough. What’s odd is that even if you do buy xFIP, this deal is still pretty stupid.
And SF is likely to be on the forefront of that technology/data. I believe pitch f/x and field f/x were both initially implemented at AT&T Park.
But, as you’ve said, Sabean has done enough wacky things that have fallen flat on their face, that maybe he has issues understanding the FA market.