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June 19, 2013The Diff: Building the Cleveland Indians’ 2014 rotation
June 19, 2013Back on June 5, I wrote ad nauseam about the top prospects in the Cleveland Indians system. It was a helpful usage of The Diff and I plan to do that a few more times this baseball season.
In the meanwhile, in between those opportunities, I’ll occasionally share some notes in my usual WFNY Stats & Info headlines. For today, here’s six prospects of note from the past few weeks.
SS Francisco Lindor, A+ Carolina, 11/14/93
Season stats: .300/.375/.400 in 65 games with 1 HR, 23 RBI, 29 BB, 29 K, 18 SB, 15 E
Recent stretch: .248/.333/.298 in 37 games with 0 HR, 11 RBI, 18 BB, 16 K, 11 SB, 11 E
The top prospect in the Tribe system has posted some fairly mediocre numbers for more than half of his season. It’s very rare to see an OBP 35 points higher than a SLG, but that’s what happens with elite patience (45th-best BB/K ratio among 901 minor league batters with 180+ plate appearances) and very little power (just 7 extra-base hits, all doubles, in 141 at-bats since May 5th). The increasing errors also are concerning. In the end, he’s still just a 19-year-old. So time is definitely on his side.
RHP Trevor Bauer, AAA Columbus, 1/17/1991
Season stats: 4-4 record, 3.60 ERA, 13 starts, 75.0 IP, 59 H, 47 BB, 72 K
Recent stretch: 1-0 record, 1.02 ERA, 3 starts, 17.2 IP, 18 H, 8 BB, 20 K
Bauer’s combined season numbers between Columbus and Cleveland look quite decent. The one question, as always, is his control. His combined 5.6 BB/9 this year would rank by far last out of 100 qualified MLB pitchers in 2013. That’s an issue. Yes, Bauer has electric stuff, is only 22 and when/if he hones down the walks, should project to be a very suitable No. 2 starter in the big leagues. But every start is an adventure right now.
RHP Preston Guilmet, AAA Columbus, 7/27/1987
Season stats: 2-4 record, 16 saves, 2.60 ERA, 29 games, 34.2 IP, 25 H, 11 BB, 41 K
Recent stretch: 0-2 record, 3 saves, 0.68 ERA, 10 games, 13.1 IP, 10 H, 7 BB, 18 K
Should the Indians be willing to make a 40-man roster move to add a in-house potential-laden bullpen arm, Guilmet should be the next man on deck. He has 16 saves in 20 opportunities along with an impressive 10.6 K/9 for the season. In his fourth year as a reliever and the team’s 9th-rounder in 2009, he’s quietly moved up the system with very consistent production. I’d expect for him to get a shot by September with an outside chance for a bullpen role in 2014.
RHP Cody Anderson, A+ Carolina, 9/14/1990
Season stats: 6-3 record, 2.63 ERA, 14 starts, 75.1 IP, 64 H, 19 BB, 69 K
Recent stretch: 3-2 record, 2.18 ERA, 8 starts, 41.1 IP, 33 H, 10 BB, 46 K
I’m going to keep on writing about Anderson until someone starts paying attention. He’s been by far the best starter in the Indians system in 2013. Among the 515 minor league pitchers with at least 50.0 IP, his K/BB ratio of 3.63 ranks T-80th. That’s darn impressive — although not quite at Corey Kluber levels. The team’s 14th-rounder in 2011, he also posted good numbers in Lake County last year, so he should be on the verge of being a top-10 prospect for 2014.
RF Carlos Moncrief, AA Akron, 11/3/1988
Season stats: .290/.360/.456 in 64 games with 9 HR, 32 RBI, 28 BB, 56 K, 6 SB, 2 E
Recent stretch: .375/.444/.636 in 22 games with 5 HR, 17 RBI, 11 BB, 21 K, 3 SB, 1 E
A converted pitcher, Moncrief has had his best season at the plate thus far in 2013 for the Aeros. He was the Indians minor league player of the week last week and his 15-game hitting streak finally was snapped Tuesday night. He has a plus arm, solid power and is turning himself into an intriguing prospect to watch. He’s a bit old for Double-A, but might have the most raw power of any high-level prospect in the system.
2B/SS Ronny Rodriguez, AA Akron, 4/17/1992
Season stats: .273/.295/.422 in 64 games with 4 HR, 33 RBI, 8 BB, 40 K, 8 SB, 13 E
Recent stretch: .358/.382/.579 in 23 games with 2 HR, 18 RBI, 5 BB, 13 K, 5 E
The No. 7 prospect in the system, Rodriguez has finally caught fire after a very sluggish start to the season. He’s the reigning minor league player of the week, although he’s 0-for-8 in his last two ballgames. His hot streak has coincided with finally being moved to the No. 2 hole in the lineup after usually batting in the bottom half. His lack of patience and free-swinging style is not ideal, but he has a lot of hitting upside for a 21-year-old middle infielder.
[Related: Indians 4, Royals 3: Deserve Ain’t Got Nothin’ To Do With It*]
14 Comments
I think every team in the organization is around the .500 mark. Now that’s called symmetry!
RonRod. That has to be my favorite nickname of any Cleveland prospect. But seriously, with Lindor, is he our future SS, a future position change or future trade bait?
i meant with Lindor probably the future at SS, what do we do with RonRod. RONROD
Um. Nope. Lake County is 23-44. Carolina is 22-48.
Overall, the Indians rank 30th in baseball with a 119-175 (.409) organization record.
Yeah I understood. My guess is RonRod’s long-term position is 2B. He’s played there a bit this season. Lindor’s presence is also part of reason for Wolters’ switch back to C.
Both moves are risky though and you can never have too many middle infielders, if you ask me. Seems odd to drastically alter paths of fellow prospects based on other ones, when no one is ever a sure thing (even Lindor).
My most poignant such memory: Trevor Crowe converting to a 2B in 2006, a year after being the No. 14 pick in the draft. He lost confidence and it was a disaster. Went right back to OF. Obviously, he’s solidly AAAA, but just is a notable example in my mind.
Bauer is a future ace in my opinion and most peoples
I don’t think that’s necessarily accurate anymore. Obviously, he’s still only 22. And he has oodles of upside. But his ace-esque prospect standing is not as perfect as most people assumed at first.
“I think they just stole a No. 2 starter from Arizona, and even if my long-term concerns about his complex delivery hold true, he might give them 600-800 high-quality innings before anything goes wrong.”
— Keith Law in Feb. 2013
“He has the stuff to be a frontline starter. Not an all out dominant Ace, but an anchor to a staff. Chances are that he settles into a #2 role, not looked at as the rotation leader.”
— Minor League Instinct in March 2013
“Both his command and control need polish. … With some polish and added maturity, Bauer has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter.”
— FanGraphs in March 2013
I think Ace vs. #2 guy is completely relative to the rest of your rotation, but aside from that, I think some of the various publications offering diminished guidance on him are just looking at his early MLB struggles. He blasted through the minors in about 20 months prior to those struggles, (last year) so he was hardly behind schedule.
He throws mid 90’s, has at least 3 plus pitches, can miss bats as well as anybody in baseball, and has dominated at every level of the minors. (had a couple of rough patches at AAA, but seems to have made the necessary adjustments) I’m not sure you can argue his ceiling has come down at all. Yes there are issues with walks, but the control comes in fits and starts with him (see recent stretch of 20K’s to 8bb’s) rather than just being a guy who is afraid to attach batters. I don’t see any reason to believe he won’t get more consistent as he develops.
1) I quoted three different outlets so I very much don’t think it was narrow-minded “diminished guidance” to a premature sample size of 4 poor MLB starts. Most outlets realized that didn’t matter much.
2) As I wrote above, Bauer’s BB/9 in a solid AAA sample of 24 starts would rank by far last among 2013 qualified MLB pitchers. That’s a major concern that would get taken advantage of by better hitters.
3) When you look at his K/9, BB/9 and ERA numbers from last year in AAA to this year, he actually did better in 2012 in a more batter-friendly league. So no, he hasn’t made all of his adjustments quite yet.
4) Also, Bauer hardly “blasted through the minors.” His AA numbers in 12 starts: 3.18 ERA, 4.7 BB/9, 11.9 K/9. Yes, those strikeouts are dominant, but the walks and ERA are eerily similar.
5) My final point: As of right now, with all of the evidence in hand, I don’t see Bauer as a top-20 MLB pitcher that will be a regular All-Star. He should be solid, assuming the control issues (which are major) get worked out. Thus, I label him now as a No. 2, a la a pitcher like Justin Masterson. Good and solid, a guy you like to have, but not an ace.
First let me say I’m mostly arguing for the sake of the discussion here. I have no idea if he will end up a #1, #2, or whatever. Player development is a fickle thing at times. I do cringe a little at the shifting projections over a relatively short sample. If we tried to project Kluber 6 months ago we might come to a very different conclusion than some are right now. the truth is usually somewhere in the middle, but I certainly hope we strike gold in both cases.
1) I readily admit to having not read all of the notes from each of said outlets, but I’m speculating that, as rankings of prospects can jump around a fair amount, there may be more focus on recent troubles during which he was largely young for his level in the system(s) he was in. Let’s not forget he was only drafted 2 years ago and he’s in AAA with some MLB experience at the age of 22. My argument is mostly that it’s a little unfair to adjust guidance based on his production alone without a more comprehensive look at his progression. If any of those outlets have effectively done so, then maybe I just disagree with them.
2) His BB/9 is not great, (right around Lincecum/Jiminez levels) but I’m not sure it’s as dire as all that for a 22yo in AAA. As an established major leaguer it would be a serious detraction but it’s not uncommon for guys to get better at that as they develop and mature. It’s a process learning what top hitters will and won’t swing at. CC Sabathia, with the exception of his brief time in the South Atlantic League, put up BB/9 numbers that were actually worse than Bauer through his minor league career. Yes, he was a year younger at every stop (Bauer had just turned 20 so it’s closer than it looks) and didn’t spend any time at AAA, but the trend is still worth noting. It’s not like Bauer is 25 and well established already. Sabathia also averaged 4.7 BB/9 in his first major league year and 3.8 his second when he was 21. He didn’t drop below 3.0 until 2005 when he was 24 years old. (only been above there once since) When Cliff Lee was 21 and 22 he was in Class A and A+ giving up 7.3 and 3.8 BB/9 respectively. He bounced up and down, but his first stint in AAA produced 4.6 BB/9 and a SO/BB of only 1.36. His second stint in AAA a year later just before getting called up his BB/9 was 4.4. In his first full year with the Indians at the age of 25, Lee averaged 4.1 BB/9. Obviously he continued to improve and has even been among the league leaders for the past 6 years. Besides all that, Bauer’s K/9 would be top 5 right now. (falls right between Justin Verlander and Shelby
Miller) Striking a lot of guys out helps overcome walks. I’m not
saying his control isn’t the biggest issue for him to overcome, because it
obviously is, but it’s not something we shouldn’t expect to improve.
3) He certainly isn’t a finished product, but he talked about making mechanical changes through the early season, aimed at helping reduce wear and tear on his arm and also helping to disguise his pitches a little better. I don’t know if he’s finished with those adjustments or not, but clearly he’s making some. His current 3 start stretch has been pretty dominant so something is going right currently at least.
4) By “blasted through the minors” I meant that he went from being drafted in the spring of 2011 to making a major league start in the spring of 2012. That’s pretty fast. I realize that his 2011 ERA through A+ and AA doesn’t look completely dominant, but that was only 25.2 innings and he struck out 43 batters during that time. In the 130.1 innings he pitched in 2012 between AA and AAA (still less than a year since he was drafted) he compiled a 2.42 ERA with 10.8 K/9. There aren’t many prospects more dominant than that. We would have liked to see a leap forward this year, but he is still just-turned-22 and he’s had stretches of dominance where he was un-hitable, so a little inconsistency seems like not a huge worry just yet. Plus, the year isn’t over by a long shot, so we may still see some solid progression.
6) I can’t say if he’ll be better than Masterson, or an ace vs. a #2, but I will disagree with the Masterson comparison. It’s tough to compare their numbers since Masterson is a groundball pitcher who needs to pitch to contact to be successfull. He’s never walked as many guys as Bauer, but he also never had the kind of strikeout numbers as Bauer. When it comes to results, though, Masterson had an ERA of well over 4 through most of his minor league career until he suddenly improved dramatically in 2008, which he split between AAA and Boston. He was a year older than Bauer is right now when that happened, and he did not repeat that level of success until 2011, when he was 26. Masterson is a pretty solid pitcher right now, but he’s 28 and probably won’t get substantially better over the next 5-6 years that comprise his baseball prime. (although Cliff Lee sure did, so who knows) Either way, Bauer may or may not project as a top 10 pitcher, but I think his numbers and skill set suggest a ceiling above Masterson’s.
Like I said before, #1 or #2 isn’t a strictly defined set of stats, and it depends on the rest of your staff a little, but I haven’t seen a reason to really think any less of Bauer than was thought a year ago. Not yet anyway. I suppose I’d be happy enough with a solid #2 to go with our other 3 solid #2’s for next year in Masterson, McCallister, and Kluber, but while Bauer’s imperfections are more known now, I think his ceiling is still very high.
What about Paulino? How has he been doing?
RonRod had 3 more hits last night. That’s now seven 3-hit games in his last 24 outings.
Fairly mediocre. A la LIndor, he’s still exceptionally young for his level: Lindor is Nov. ’93 and in High-A; Paulino is Nov. 94 and in A-ball.
Season stats: .222/.273/.312 in 58 games with 1 HR, 20 RBI, 7 SB, 26 (!!) E
Recent stretch: .255/.278/.427 in 28 games with 1 HR, 14 RBI, 5 SB, 14 E
Those errors. Woah. No one else in the Midwest League has more than 20 errors.
The hitting is starting to come around a bit better at least. He burst onto the scene with his .355/.404/.610 line in 41 games out in the Arizona League last season.
RonRod had 2 hits on Thursday, 3 more on Friday.
He’s now batting .382/.402/.573 in his 26 games since May 22nd.