MLB Draft: Indians Gamble on Young Upside in Day Two

For most sports fans, the MLB draft is a lot a buzz with no real substance. For the dedicated baseball lovers, however, there’s plenty to analyze and share with the public.

Of note in particular, it’s intriguing first to see where the new members of the Cleveland Indians organization will land in the coming 12 months. Of course, fans have enjoyed the quick progressions of prospects drafted in 2008-10, so what does that mean for the class of ’12 (including the pictured RHP Mitchell Brown)?

After that today, I’ll take a look at how the dynamics of being a small-market team have changed with the new MLB draft rules (something TD mentioned briefly yesterday). Draft bonuses are no longer unlimited or even just suggested as they were in the past – there are now strict penalties for going beyond certain spending boundaries. So this clearly changed around the Indians strategy, and this is evident in their top five picks alone.

To begin, let’s take a few looks at the top prospects acquired in the draft. Here are where the top five Indians place in ESPN.com’s Keith Law’s (insider) and Baseball America’s (free) rankings:

Keith Law

#42: OF Tyler Naquin (1st round, 15th overall)
#45: RHP Mitchell Brown (2nd round, 79th overall)
#47: RHP Keiran Lovegrove (3rd round, 110th overall)
#75: RHP Dylan Baker (5th round, 173rd overall)
#94: OF D’Vone McClure (4th round, 143rd overall)

Baseball America

#25: OF Tyler Naquin (1st round, 15th overall)
#44: RHP Mitchell Brown (2nd round, 79th overall)
#82: RHP Dylan Baker (5th round, 173rd overall)
#91: OF D’Vone McClure (4th round, 143rd overall)
#131: RHP Keiran Lovegrove (3rd round, 110th overall)

So, obviously, it appears the Tribe didn’t do too shabby when you look at the value of the second through fifth round picks. Many questioned picking Naquin so high (more on that later), but when you see that with two different rankings that the average ranks of the #1-5 are 33.5, 44.5, 89.0, 92.5, 78.5, you have to be pleased.

Naquin is a junior from Texas A&M who certainly was going to be gone by the end of the first day, no matter what. With the Tribe system, he projects as a guy who could hopefully transition soon to CF. His arm is ready, his bat is mostly ready outside of adding more power and his make-up is well-touted too. His biggest flaw seems to be his lack of a formal position, something we heard about Jason Kipnis back in 2009. If all goes well, expect to see Naquin in High-A Kinston and maybe AA Akron next season, with the possibility to be in Cleveland by September 2014.

Then the minor league projections get a bit trickier. Naquin is a college guy, just like Kipnis (2009 second round from Arizona State), Alex White (2009 first round from UNC) and Drew Pomeranz (2010 first round from Ole Miss). For high-round college guys, we tend to know a lot about their strengths, weaknesses and possible transition throughout the system. They’ve all seen pretty high-end competition, and because of their age as well, usually jump fast through a system. On the flip side, most franchises, especially the Indians historically, are much more conservative with high-round high school selections.

We are seeing this now with Lonnie Chisenhall (2008 first round from an NC high school) and Francisco Lindor (2011 first round from PR). Chisenhall just now is getting his shot at a potential full-time gig. Lindor remains in High-A Kinston and his earliest possible arrival date is probably late 2013, assuming all continues to go perfectly well for him in the pros.

In the second round this season, the Tribe selected a first-round talent in Brown, a star high schooler from Minnesota. Scouts are drooling over his frame, even though he is just 6-foot-1. He has a low-to-mid 90s fastball, and it appears both his cut fastball and slider project well for the long-term. He was a recent draft climber because nobody usually finds arms like this in Minnesota.

Then, Cleveland nabbed another pretty highly rated pitcher in Lovegrove. This California right-hander is bigger at 6-foot-4, something that scouts always love, and also has a lot of projectable upside like Brown. His slider and change both project well, just like his sinking fastball, but he could need some mechanical work to keep his velocity consistent.

McClure is another toolsy guy for the Tribe to grab in the fourth round. This 6-foot-3 speedster is a phenomenal athlete who also was an all-state wide receiver. He has a tremendous ceiling with five tool potential, including plus power. Several people have him listed with more upside than any other player taken by Cleveland in the draft.

To round out the top five, the Indians took Baker from Western Nevada Community College. Yes, that’s not necessarily high school, but he still lacked the consistent competition that folks like Naquin faced every day. He was a second-round talent, thanks to his impressive fastball that once touched 100 mph. His curveball also looks solid for now, but he’ll need to develop another plus pitch to be a starter long-term.

Some additional potentially familiar recent high school draftees that we can look to as comparisons in the system are Joseph Colon (2009 12th round from PR), Tony Wolters (2010 third round from CA) and Dillon Howard (2011 second round from AR). I list these guys as comparisons, since it’s neat to note they are currently in A, DL in A or not pitching at all. It took Chisenhall, one of the best bats in the 2008 draft, all of four years to reach the pros consistently. It could take that long or longer with Brown, Lovegrove, McClure and Baker, so it’s best to be patient for now.

In the remaining 10 rounds that all took place yesterday, three other guys I’m a big fan of are big seventh rounder OF Josh Schubert-McAdams from Calhoun HS (GA), groundballer ninth rounder RHP Jacob Lee from Arkansas State and solid 12th rounder C Jeremy Lucas from Indiana State. Schubert-McAdams has some intriguing power, a tool that’s desperately lacking in the system, while Lee matches well with our system’s MLB pitchers and you can never have too many gritty catchers like Lucas.

As I prefaced above, however, there is an intriguing storyline behind why the Indians found some value late after picking a surprising guy in the first round. Jon described in the offseason specifically how the new taxing system works for punishing teams that sign over MLB’s slot recommendations.

In general terms, this means that each team gets an allotment of bonus money they can use for their picks in the first 10 rounds, with specific slots for each pick. If a team goes over that total dollar amount for the first 10 rounds of bonus money, there are strict penalties of taxes that continue all the way up to lost draft picks. In other words, you don’t want to go there.

But, signing over slots was a strategy small-market teams like the Indians used in years past to gain advantages in the draft. A couple examples are C Alex Lavisky (2010 eighth round from St. Edward HS) and LHP Matt Packer (2009 32nd rounder from Virginia). These are two of the many guys the Indians signed to huge bonuses over slot recommendations in the past.

Now, this is severely restricted through 10 rounds, and then essentially outlawed afterwards. Starting from the top, that’s why the Indians saved some money first on Naquin in order to be a little more risk/reward with the signing of guys after that. In particular, I’ve got a feeling Brown will cost a pretty penny. (Other teams, meanwhile, took risks in the first round and played it safe in rounds 2-10.)

After the 10th round overall, the MLB Draft then saw a huge run of college players overall, especially seniors, along with some risky moves. The seniors are always considered the easiest players to sign, since they have no leverage of potentially attending college instead, and are likely desperate to just get going at the recommended slots. Meanwhile, other teams took big risks there since signing over slot there does go against the allotment, but there’s no loss for not signing folks.

We’ll see if the Indians strategy in this case truly presents the same type of advantages that over-signing had in the past. These changes of course were instituted in the vein of “controlling spending” and “competitive balance,” but have often been lambasted for promoting the exact opposite by hurting a strategy used by small-market teams.

Overall, I think this is a nice haul for the Tribe. The players are highly rated, but because several are the risky types from high school, their full impact might not be seen until 2016 or later, a drastic change from the quick promotions of Kipnis, White and Pomeranz.

Hopefully fans can stay patient until then, and take some comfort in a retooling of an minor league system ranked 29th at the start of the year. We’ll need these guys to come through eventually in Cleveland, but they should help soon at least in Niles, Eastlake, Zebulon, Akron and Columbus.

The 2012 MLB draft concludes with rounds 16-40 today starting at noon.

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Photo of Mitchell Brown by The Rochester Post Bulletin