ESPN Mock NBA Draft: Cavs Land Beal, Harkless
May 1, 2012Matt LaPorta: We Won’t Get Fooled Again…Will We?
May 1, 2012So now it’s official: Johnny Damon will be joining the Indians in Chicago today. He’ll wear No. 33. He might wear a beard. He’ll almost certainly play a good deal of left field.
I’m not here to beat up the Indians for entering the season with such a crummy corps of corner outfield options. But I’m going to anyway. The front office threw every retread and 4A outfielder against the wall during Spring Training, and not one of them managed to stick. I wrote last month that it was obvious that Shelley probably shouldn’t be an everyday player, but that there was really no point in arguing too much about it because he was the best we had at the time. That reality was a failure of the front office, not Shelley Duncan.
And in their defense, they addressed the situation. The question, of course, is whether adding Johnny Damon to the pile makes the team appreciably better or if we’re just swapping one flawed role-player for another.
Over the last two years, Damon has bat .266/.340/.409 (.749 OPS) while playing in Detroit and Tampa Bay. During that span, he average 148 games per year—in other words, he was an everyday player with slightly above-average offense (108 OPS+).
Over the same period (2010-2011), Shelley Duncan hit .246/.320/.451 (.771 OPS; 119 OPS+) while averaging 80 games per season. Slightly better offensively than Damon, but we’ll grade him down a bit for being leveraged as a part-time player.* Let’s say the two are—from a productivity standpoint—roughly similar hitters. While Damon has more OBP ability, Shelley’s advantage in power evens them out.
*The argument goes that Shelley’s numbers would necessarily be worse had he played every day, because his flaws would be more pronounced and Acta wouldn’t use him only in those situations that are most propitious. As far as I know, there is no proof of this theory writ large. In fact, if I recall, most part-time players—if given a chance to play every day—perform exactly as they did as part-time players. Couple that with the fact that, contrary to popular opinion,Shelley’s platoon splits aren’t as drastic as people might have you believe, and I’m a bit skeptical of the theory. But for this exercise, we’ll give Damon the benefit of the doubt.
Beyond what they contribute in the batter’s box, there are obviously additional components to both players’ value. Without spending too much time here, let’s agree that Damon is a significantly better base runner than Duncan and that Shelley is a significantly better fielder than Damon.*
*Wait. What’s that? You don’t agree that Shelley is a significantly better fielder than Damon? Oh alright. Let’s consider. One, Johnny Damon cannot throw the ball more than 90 feet on a fly and his arm resembles so many bowls of delicious pasta. Two, his OF UZR since 2004, encompassing over 6,600 innings, is -34.5—which means that an average outfielder would’ve saved his team 35 runs compared to the “defense” provided by Damon. Three, Joe Maddon (the smartest manager in baseball) agreed to start Damon only 16 times in the outfield last season for Tampa Bay. On top of all that, Shelley Duncan, despite looking pretty funny doing it, is a completely adequate outfielder: his arm functions, he gets to as many balls as the average bear, and for all his acrobatics, his career OF UZR is 2.1 runs above average. He’s not going to make anyone forget about Kenny Lofton, but as far as playing an adequate left field, he’s actually much more adept than Damon.
So what does all this tell us? Well, I would say the two are fairly comparable players. Both are veterans—“good clubhouse guys”, as they say. Both are slightly above average offensive players with significant flaws in their games. Both, I’m sure, will make us throw up our hands from time to time in frustration.
I’ve been cast as something of a Shelley Duncan apologist in the blogosphere, for various reasons. So when I write pieces like this (or tweet about it) I’m inevitably told that I only say these things because I have an irrational love for Dunkers. So let me be very clear: OF COURSE I have an irrational love of Dunkers. Only communists and traitors do not.
But that’s not why I think that Damon isn’t a very good replacement for Duncan. I can separate my irrational side from my analytical one: it’s how I defended the Branyan signing so many moons ago, even though I kinda hate Russell Branyan.
No, it’s not that I think Shelley is great. It’s that I have a suspicion that Damon might not be any better.
15 Comments
Can we put Choo in LF when there is a RH Batter with a man on third and less than 2 outs? Not looking forward to the noodle.
But what happens when Grady comes back…[crickets]
by Grady did you mean Matt LaPorta who is on pace to earn AAA MVP honors. LaPorta is the Barry Bonds of AAA.
(why couldn’t he be that of MLB? one last shot at some point this year though, it’s coming)
No mention of defense?
“During that span, he average 148 games per year…”
Only 52 were in the outfield. 230+ were at DH.
As questionable as Duncan’s defense is in left, I have a hard time believing Damon will be any better. So while it’s nice to have depth, I don’t see Damon as an improvement over Duncan.
If only they had flipped White and Pomeranz for a left fielder who can hit.
That seems to be what Jon is saying… not sure if you are arguing or agreeing?
Those outfield metrics for Damon are downright frightening. I’m hoping that having a relatively shallow left field at the Jake will help, but it sure seems like a problem.
This is a different topic, but it’s about the Tribe and wanted to say it somewhere: did anyone notice that Michael Brantley is suddently hitting .250 on the season? I thought it’d take him another month to get his BA up that high… kudos to him. Let’s hope he keeps hitting.
Looking forward to tonight in an idiosyncratically Cleveland way: to glimpse the weirdness of over the hill greatness in a tribe uniform. Exactly how I looked forward to seeing Frank Robinson and Boog, Steve Carlton, Dave Winfield and Eddie Murray in a tribe cap (no, not Keith Hernandez, not sure he ever left the clubhouse).
Agreeing. And I just noticed now that he did mention defense and gave the nod to Duncan.
He found his confidence and his stroke towards the end of the month. Even his outs were rock solid contact that got caught.
Hey look, Damon is not a walking corpse on the field like everyone makes him out to be. He’s a little slower and has a crappy arm, okay. But he’s seasoned, in shape, and has been at this for a long time, and if nothing else, it’s awesome to have an outstanding veteran batter in the clubhouse for the young guys to look up to. Think about that aspect. Think beyond the metrics.
Dear WFNY, I don’t mind advertising to make a little money, but placing that picture of the Geico Caveman right under the stories headline is a little intrusive.
Our pitching staff would be pretty terrible.
Actually, the shallow LF in Boston is the biggest reason why his defensive numbers are so poor. For some reason, everyone’s numbers look bad there. Those 2 years in Fenway amount to -25 of the -34.5. He’s not good, but he’s nowhere near as bad as the article suggests. BB-ref has his defense at +28 since 2006 as well, a great number.