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November 29, 2011MLB’s New CBA & What It Means for the Indians: Part 2 – Draft Compensation
November 29, 2011Colt McCoy has thrown two brutal interceptions in the last two weeks. The Browns were in precarious spots both times. Against Cincinnati this weekend the Browns were driving toward the red zone and were clinging to a three point lead when McCoy threw as he was hit. It was probably about five yards in bounds and about ten yards short of Greg Little. McCoy would later say he was trying to throw it out of bounds, but there is no excuse for turning the ball over in that situation. The week prior in a win over Jacksonville Colt McCoy threw an interception from the Jax six yard line as a linebacker jumped in front of a pass intended for Ben Watson. It was an ugly one with the game tied up at 7 in the third quarter. Those types of interceptions in particular seem especially inexcusable considering game situations and location on the field. That being said, interceptions are going to happen to every QB on occasion. So, is Colt McCoy’s interception rate a problem?
One thing we’ve definitely learned from Tim Tebow is that stats aren’t always the most meaningful measures for football players. Well, unless you’re talking about wins and losses. Even then, while wins are the most important stat, they can’t tell the story of an NFL QB any more than they can for an MLB reliever. I decided to delve into the stats a bit to see how Colt McCoy’s interception rates stand up to the rest of the NFL.
McCoy has 8 interceptions on the season compared with 13 touchdowns. First, I took interceptions per passes attempted. Colt McCoy has a rate of 2.0% which is good enough for fifth in the entire league after Aaron Rodgers (1.1%,) Sam Bradford (1.5%,) Alex Smith (1.7%,) and Joe Flacco (1.9%.) McCoy is followed by Matt Shaub (2.1%,) Jay Cutler (2.2%,) and Blaine Gabbert (2.3%.) Obviously I don’t think Colt McCoy is the fifth best quarterback in the league anymore than I think Tom Brady is the 11th best (2.4%) or Drew Brees is the 16th best (2.6%.)
Also obviously, scheme can have a profound impact on these numbers. Alex Smith’s year is widely being attributed to Harbaugh’s scheme that asks Smith to manage the game as opposed to more proactively attempting to gun his way to victory. Certainly that accounts for many of Tom Brady and Drew Brees’ interceptions. Those guys throw with higher frequency than Colt McCoy, but the trade off is that there is an acceptable risk / reward ratio where Brees has thrown for 23 touchdowns (27 after MNF) and Brady has thrown for 28 touchdowns. Colt McCoy, meanwhile, has thrown for only 13 touchdowns. With that few number of TDs, McCoy better minimize his mistakes.
I always like to go back to Mark Sanchez because that was the Browns’ pick. Sanchez gets paid a lot of money to be 19th on this list with his 18 touchdowns and 11 interceptions and INT / ATT rate of 2.9%. Taking into account the quality of the weapons at Sanchez’ disposal it must be pretty discouraging for Jets fans to consider what their future might be with him. But I don’t watch the Jets closely enough to know for sure if Sanchez is the majority of the problem. Maybe it has more to do with the offensive coordinator. Right now, I’d be concerned that Sanchez will never be a great game manager or someone who can win it with his arm.
So, what do the numbers tell us about Colt McCoy? While not excusing either of those bad interceptions the last two weeks, Colt McCoy’s interception rate is not a problem yet. Considering what he’s being asked to do, Colt McCoy is taking care of the ball pretty well. I don’t get the feeling that if Pat Shurmur just unleashed McCoy the way Brady and Brees are that McCoy would put up those gaudy TD numbers. I don’t think any of the rest of you think so either. His teammates have something to do with that.
As always, the million dollar question with Colt McCoy is whether he can jump to the next level and be more than just a game manager. As the offense develops and has more weapons, will Colt McCoy become the next Drew Brees or will he have to become Alex Smith? I hate to try and guess whether McCoy is “the guy” or not just yet. Ask San Diego how that’s working out for them with Phillip Rivers this season? That aside, right now Colt McCoy is much closer to Alex Smith. I don’t really see him breaking into a Drew Brees impression in his career, but we’ll see.
For now, considering the alternatives, Colt McCoy is doing a great job of not killing the Browns with interceptions. We’ll see what Tom Heckert’s impressions are on draft day. If the Browns take a QB you can bet Heckert thinks McCoy has more Smith than Brees in his future.
50 Comments
If a QB isn’t getting some decent pass protection, nothing else matters. I just hope McCoy isn’t all battered and broken by the time we’re supposed to be good.
Now that McCoy has played the equivalent of 1 full season, there have definitely been some improvements. He is checking down to his RBs and TEs less. As mentioned by Craig his interception rate per pass has certainly gotten better. Cleveland leads the league in dropped passes, which obviously doesn’t help McCoy’s numbers. Due to this improvement, I hope he gets another season to start at QB, and I hope that Heckert picks up a good RT and a good WR in the draft. If McCoy can’t get it done with quality players around him in most of the offensive positions, then I think the Browns will have to move on to plan B, but I’m hoping he gets the time he needs to continue to develop.
It’s hard to throw INT’s when you rarely chuck it further than 5 yards upfield. McCoy is terrible and his petulant, awkward stammering when trying to explain how he was trying to “throw the ball away” on that godawful pic was about as embarassing as it gets.
not out of control, but he should probably stop throwing them anyway. especially on those roll out plays like this past weekend.
I Really like Colt and do not want to draft a QB right now based on our needs but I’m developing a man crush on Barkley. I would snare him if he drops. Then go wr lb rt
Let’s not forget that 4 (yes, 4) touchdowns this year are garbage time touchdowns that don’t matter. Which means he has thrown 9 legit touchdowns and 8 interceptions.
Now, that doesn’t sound too terrific, does it? I’ll tell you what that does sound like…a problem.
If the Browns pick Landry Jones (it’s all I want for Christmas) then we could turn the good ship Cleveland around much more quickly.
People mistake my criticism of Colt for ‘hate’ and it sickens me. With that said, its not so much the INTs that gets me with McCoy. Its the slew of other awkward and off-target throws he makes. I wish people would stop making excuses for him but it’s so easy to blame the drops and/or lack of playmakers for his short-comings. The truth is, the blame falls on them all. Colt has GOT to play better, end of story. 0-6 in the AFC North. Perhaps, 0-8 when the book is closed on 2011. That’s the only stat I need. I know that patience is a virtue wearing thin on the shores of Lake Erie these days. But how long can we wait to find out if the QB we took a flyer on with the 85th pick is the franchise QB we’ve all been waiting for?
For whatever reason, Heckert and Holmgren didn’t think it was necessary to surround him with more playmakers this season, his “audition” year. Perhaps, they’re waiting to draft some. Perhaps, they will draft their franchise QB. All I’m saying is (and this will be determined after the season) IF we have a chance to take a franchise QB in this year’s draft… with 2 first round picks at our disposal… we should not hesitate. The time may be here to finally bite the bullet and pull the trigger on THE guy instead of taking fliers on guys who MIGHT be THE guy. Ok, I’ll stop now before I spew out anymore cliches. Discuss.
If Colt was really trying to throw that ball out of bounds, he’s even worse than I thought he was.
To be quite honest, I think we keep McCoy this year. Not because I love the guy. Not because I think he is the franchise QB.
No, I say we keep him because for the time being, he is perfectly serviceable and gets the job done, he may grow in to it, and -most importantly- we frankly have far too many needs to waste draft picks on a position that is perhaps not a position of strength, but certainly not the most glaring weakness.
Our run defense has been exposed as sub-par. Our O-line is terrible, our receivers are below average. We need depth everywhere.
Any QB we get would be set up for failure with the current personnel, so the most prudent course of action to me is to stay the course and shore up the worst parts of the team first. By the end of next year, if we get some playmakers, we will know for sure if McCoy is our guy. If he is not, we will have had another year to add protection and personnel to provide to whomever our eventual franchise QB turns out to be.
@ RyInCBus: You’re speaking the truth and don’t let any true believers tell you otherwise, my friend.
Trouble is, aside from future Indianapolis Colts star Andrew Luck, the next best QB is Landry Jones. I think he is amazing, but it’s college and as we have seen with Colt, that doesn’t always mean it’ll translate 100%. Or 58.5%. Which is Colt’s completion percentage.
@ Chris: Look at the 2011 Indianapolis Colts, please. Without ONE MAN (a QB) they are 0-11 and not even trying.
Yes, one player, especially a QB, can make/break a team.
I would love to end up with Jones or Barkley in the draft but I don’t know if either will be there when we pick. Also, depending on combine workouts I’d really like to add Blackmon, Jeffrey, or Floyd at WR.
As I see it the Browns will end up with 4 or 5 wins unless some sort of miracle happens. Right now the following teams have the same or worse record than us (no order): Indy, Philly, Wash, Minn, Carolina, TB, Seattle, Ariz, St.L, Miami, Indy, KC, and SD.
I’m sure a few of these teams will end up with more wins than Cleveland, but the following teams will strongly consider drafting a QB with their first pick: Indy (Luck), Washington, Seattle, KC, and Miami. That means Luck, Jones, Barkley off the board before we draft. Hopefully one of the QB’s will begin a free fall since that seems to happen almost every draft.
@Ry, I think you have to have more patience. As I stated above, there is noticeable improvement from McCoy just from the start of this season to now. He’s played in the equivalent of one season of NFL football games… that’s why I keep preaching patience on here. Good quarterbacks take time to develop and you have to give McCoy the same time that other successful quarterbacks were given. It’s funny how everyone thinks that Luck, Barkley, and Landry Jones are slam dunks as far as being NFL stars. Remember, guys like David Carr and Joey Harrington were considered to be sure things and they didn’t pan out. So what happens if the QB we take doesn’t pan out? We’ll have a missed a chance to shore up another position of need, of which the Browns have several. I’d rather see Colt McCoy with better players around him next season than roll the dice with Landry Jones and possibly miss the chance to draft an excellent right tackle.
Won’t be surprised at all if we draft another QB next draft b\c Holms likes to always be developing one. But to use one of our first rounders, with so many other needs, and knowing the familiar conversation that would start, ugh. Hope Colt’s play through season’s end lets us avoid that situation.
@oribiasi, your point about garbage TDs is well taken, but you can’t use it as a way of comparing him to other QBs unless you remove all their garbage TDs too.
You might be 1000% right. I don’t know. Also, does he have any garbage time interceptions? Should those count?
@ Craig: Is there such a thing as 1000% right? I’d love to be it.
As for garbage time interceptions…that just sounds impossible. In that case, it would have to be late in a game wherein we are leading by more than 1 score and because that has never been the case all season…I think you see where I’m going with this.
So no, there are no garbage time picks for a team that scores about 17 points a game on average.
We need to build around McCoy. We can replace him next year if were still losing after putting some high round draft picks into offence.
I’d rather be the Browns loosing and building towards the future than Denver right now. Yeah we could not ask anything out of McCoy and maybe sneek a few more wins by just running the ball assuming special teams doesn’t kill us but that wont get us any where in the long run.
McCoy has his shortcomings. They have been discussed ad nauseum around here. However, I don’t think Colt McCoy even makes the top 5 on a list of problems that this team has.
I’m not sure McCoy is “the guy”. In fact, I doubt that he is. But I think he is good enough to hold that spot until we address the more pressing issues that are holding this team back. I say he gets the rest of this year and all of next year to continue to develop. If he doesn’t develop into a legit starting QB by the end of next year, draft one in 2013.
One point in McCoy’s favor is that, when he does make a mistake with an interception, he doesn’t repeat it during the game.
Cold Hard Football Facts had a stat last week that 34 of the 44 starting quarterbacks this year have a multi-interception game. Overall, only three teams haven’t thrown multiple interceptions: the Browns, Rams and 49ers.
The downside is the Browns offense isn’t good enough to overcome any mistakes, really, so even one interception really hurts the team.
I think we all saw on Sunday with A.J. Green’s catch at the end of the game how much better a top wide receiver makes a quarterback.
I tend to think the not trying is more a factor than the one man. That’s a vacuum of leadership, or a plot to tank given that they need a quarterback. I’m not typically one to believe in conspiracy, but this conclusion doesn’t take all that large a logical leap. Honestly, it’s just sound business if I’m the Colts.
If the Browns draft a 1st round QB i think it will be a pretty massive mistake and set this franchise back further than it is already.
As is, Colt is serviceable. As is, we will not be in a position to draft Luck and probably won’t be in a position to draft Jones.
Unless the third QB in this draft (Barkley? lolGriffin?) is going to be lights out right now (he won’t be), the team is better served drafting BPA instead of reaching for another roll of the QB dice.
I forgot to add that things could be worse: the Browns could be the Texans who are bringing in both Jeff Garcia and Jake Delhomme for tryouts today.
@ Chris: I would agree with most of what you say, but it comes down to this for me: Either the Colts are that terrible with Peyton at the helm (both physically and emotionally, as their leader) or they are being sly dogs and tanking the season so they can be set for another 10-15 years with Luck.
Odds are, its the second. And I can’t blame them either, but if its not, then what happened to the Colts defense? Everyone knows Reggie Wayne is an elite talent, and Garcon is better than anyone at the Browns WR position. Ok, ok…bad example.
Colts are a prime example of how much a difference one man, especially a QB, can make.
Garbage time is the same for INTs as it is for TDs. The offense is playing faster, looser and more aggressively than they would on a normal situation because they are down big. The Browns were down to the Titans and McCoy threw an interception while desperately trying to do something.
That is a garbage time interception.
Something that you won’t find in the numbers is how the INTs occurred. Some of the other QBs listed may have been hit as they threw the ball, had their pass tipped at the line, or been the victim of their receiver playing a pass poorly and/or tipping the ball into the hands of a defender.
In Colt’s case it’s none of the above. 4 of his 8 INTs were blatantly forced into double coverage. Throughout the Cincinnati game the CBS announcers talked about how Colt has to be more like Dalton and learn when to throw the ball away.
Colt’s inaccurate passing could have easily yielded more INTs this year. Case in point – http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/09000d5d8239e2bc/McCoy-Cribbs-connection. On a play where you HAVE to hit the receiver in stride, with a corner playing underneath, McCoy makes Cribbs turn completely backwards and catch the ball against the sideline. Colt’s accuracy and football acumen were supposed to two of his strong suits, yet he’s been inaccurate and made poor decisions with the football throughout the year. I believe that the only way he gets a second chance is if Heckert doesn’t like any of the other QBs in the draft.
@Pat and everyone else… One thing I think we’re forgetting… If we take a QB high in this year’s draft, it doesn’t necessarily mean Colt is done and finished in Cleveland. Without much invested in Colt financially, I could easily see him start the 2012 season and hold down the fort until the franchise QB is ready to take the reins, or Colt inadvertently hands them over. I know it’d create a bit of a controversy but maybe someone to push Colt is exactly what he needs. *puts on flame retardant suit*
Also, a name not being floated around, at least on here, that I am VERY much intrigued with is Robert Griffin III. If the Heisman ceremony were today, he may just win it. I’m sure, as the offseason progresses, he’ll continue to wow scouts with his athleticism. Stock will only rise. I think if he or one of those other QBs mentioned falls to us, there is a real possibility of Heckert pulling the trigger.
I think we need some perspective here people. Per FBO, notable QB’s who are having a “statistically” worse year than Colt:
– Kevin Kolb
– Rex Grossman
– Matt Cassel
– Sam Bradford
– Blaine Gabbert
– Tavaris Jackson
All of these QB’s will have skewed “garbage time statistics” so let’s dispose of that argument. Most are thought to be their team’s “franchise” QB. Colt is out performing some of his peers (QB’s w/ 0-2 years experience) but performing worse than others.
He is pretty middle of the pack; i.e. serviceable. And teams generally (for good reason) do not draft 1st round QB’s in that position unless one falls into their lap.
Everybody wants a top tier guy. Colt probably isn’t that. But he’s not a bottom tier guy, either. And there are far many more bottom tier than top tier guys. So cool your jets a bit.
@ Ben
I’m sure you’re aware that Kolb, Cassel, Bradford, and Grossman have all missed games due to injury and that Jackson is horrible. Also, Blaine Gabbert? The guy’s a rookie who has played 9 and 3/4 games or something.
If those are the only QB’s that Colt is out-performing I think it actually hurts your argument.
Ben: Well said.
@Big Z: I am quite well aware; I only picked out the QB’s who have had similar number of pass attempts (at or around 300). The injuries of listed QB’s doesn’t affect the number of passes they’ve thrown or their success (or lack thereof) in so throwing.
Gabbert – Browns fans were completely willing to throw Colt out w/ the garbage after 9 3/4 games, so the same rules apply.
Jackson is horrible, but he has started multiple games for multiple teams over the course of the last 3 or 4 years. So he enters the discussion as well.
There are a bunch of other QB’s that Colt is out performing, but they don’t matter b/c they are expected to be bad.
tl;dr My point isn’t that Colt is great. Far from it. But he’s not as terrible as some Cleveland fans pretend.
Totally agree with Craig. Garbage time INTs surely do exist. While watching the game Sunday, people at the bar were begging Colt to throw it downfield, because at that point an interception didn’t matter. If you can’t get the ball into scoring position you can’t win anyway. So a QB would be more inclined to throw into tight coverage/force the issue if the alternative means not putting the team in a position to win.
Ben: I’m not pretending Colt is terrible. I think he is slightly above average. This is a QB driven league and we’re gonna need someone better than that if we want to compete in our own division, let alone the entire NFL. 0-6. 0-8. In the AFC North? Not terrible. But pretty darn close so far. Just because we’ve driven a Yugo for 12 years doesn’t mean we should jump at the chance to drive a Toyota Camry.
My gut tells me that McCoy isn’t “the Man”, but then again, my gut constantly pushes me to split tens so take it for what its worth.
I really like McCoys poise and short term memory, the guy has very few weapons and he gets crushed on a regular basis, he has also thrown some of the worst picks possible, yet he seems to shrug it off and bounce back.
The one thing that makes me real nervous about him is his lack of accuracy in the short game. If you can’t go vertical, then you have absolutely got to put the ball on the front shoulder on those short crossing routes. Not behind or at the knees and definetly not 3 rib exposing feet above the guys head. Pocket prescence you can learn, and as someone else pointed out he really only makes 1 int a game,
Here’s what I feel like I know for a fact, I would much rather watch Colt under center next year with an upgraded RT and #1 receiver, than watching Barkley, Jones, or Griffin staring in horror as Tony “Stay Puff” Pashos ambles up to the line in front of him. And honestly if Kalil or Blackmon aren’t there when we pick I don’t have a problem trading down again, taking #2 rated OT and WR and hopefully getting a couple more picks out of it. Man it makes me sick talking about the draft and next year with more than a quarter of the season still left.
Unless Matt Flynn is picked up in the offseason, people better get used to the idea of Colt McCoy under center for next year. It takes time to learn the West Coast Offense and all signs point to them giving him time to develop and learn. I think that is why Shurmur continuously reminds us that he sees McCoy as a rookie, because he is learning a completely new system. Check the stats of the best known WCO QB’s and you will see little to comparable production to Colt. In some instances Colt is a step up. He needs to remember that he is not Brett Farve and throw balls away (and admit when he made a mistake).
@Ry, If the Browns did get a QB in this draft, I agree that I would expect him to sit behind Colt for a season and learn the ropes. My issue with drafting a QB in the first round is that the Browns are passing up the chance to draft an elite player at another position of need.
Just for fun… in Bernie Kosar’s second year with the Browns he had a completion percentage of 58.4, 17 TDs, 10 INTs. Adjusted for 11 games completed, that puts Bernie at about 12 TDs and 7 interceptions. Colt is at 13 and 8. However, the Browns of 1986 went 12-4 due to the fact that they had a great defense and they actually had a running game. If the Browns’ running game wasn’t so attrocious, I doubt anyone would mind the stats that Colt is putting up right now.
To add… Cleveland is 2nd to last in rushing yards per attempt and is tied for last place in # of rushing touchdowns. It’s hard to put TDs on the board as a QB when your rushing attack is more of a rushing pillow fight.
My feelings about Colt are pretty in line w/ Porkchop’s
*The draft, not Colt.
@ Bill: So, considering Colt hasn’t thrown it much downfield, can we stop with the nonsense about garbage time interceptions, since he theoretically only ever threw one, and it was this week? And I’m not even sure on that one?
@ Vengeful Pat: It’s also hard to explain why Pat thought it would be a swell idea NOT to run a healthy Hillis in the first Cincinnati game.
@Vengeful Pat: Disagree that ’86 Browns went 12-4 due to great defense and running game. Runners were certainly excellent, defense was good at certain positions (Don Rogers died previous summer and they gave up plenty of points), but that record was mostly due to new OC Lindy Infante installing an offense that Bernie took to like a fish to water. Bernie came into his own that year, at least a couple 400+ yard games, total command and played lights out. Forget the stats, watch Bernie in those games.
INTs are not the problem at all. As Craig pointed out, Colt’s INT rate is very low. His TD rate is also low which is the problem. He’s got to have at least half a year with an offseason, training camp, and some decent WRs before I will say he’s not worth starting. Besides throwing more TDs than INTs with the roster and run game we have is good imo. Peyton Manning threw 28 INTs his rookie year. Brady had an 18/12 ratio his first season he played, and that’s with 1.5 years of practice in the same system and Bledsoe mentoring him. Brees was 17/16 his first season he played (2nd overall) in SD.
bottom line: It takes time, and 13/8 TD/INT is good for a second year player. Even 9/8 or 9/7 is not enough to call for his head, especially with the worst WRs in the league.
Also the reason the Colts are so bad is because they drafted AWESOME around P. Manning both before and after his arrival for like 6 or 7 years (E. James, Glenn, Harrison, Wayne, Freeney, Clark) but their drafts/FAs the last 5 years have been horrible. Their roster is totally depleted–even their offensive picks lately such as Gonzalez from tOSU and Brown haven’t worked out. Manning is one of the best players in the world but this team this year is still about a .500 team with him. I think you’ll see that next year they will still be a second or third place team in that division either with Manning or Luck.
The Browns should draft a wide receiver that can catch (NOT Little) or reliably get open (NOT Cribbs) or spread the field (NOT Massaquoi) before we pass any final judgement upon McCoy. Dalton’s last pass looked desperate and Green bailed him out. Nobody on the Browns can leap out and grab a pass like that.
I hate when I get dragged off the path, but Hillis’ touches weren’t a problem in game #1 against Cincy. He had 17 carries and 6 receptions. Eight rushes occurred in the second half of that game.
@ Ben
The only QBs from your list that have close to the same amount of pass attempts is Bradford and Jackson, and Colt’s got over 60 more attempts and 7 less sacks than Bradford. He’s got around 120 more attempts than all the other QBs on your list. I’m just saying that you can’t really compare totaled stats since most of those QBs missed games due to injury. Just like how based upon QBR for the year, Jason Campbell and Donovan McNabb are better than Colt but you can’t really compare those numbers.
It is interesting to note that his stats are pretty close to Joe Flacco though.
@oribiasi
The argument was simply that garbage time INTs exist, whether Colt McCoy has thrown them or not.
The day after the Cincy game Pat Shurmur stated that in watching the film of Colt’s int it was clear that he was throwing the ball out of bounds until he got hit and his body twisted causing the throw to come back into play. Watch around 17 minute mark for conformation.
http://www.clevelandbrowns.com/media-center/videos/Pat-Shurmur-Press-Conference-1128/18f483f9-ca7c-4799-bcdb-20b65d9bf60a
I tend to believe the HC of the Cleveland Browns over a bunch of angry arm chair coaches who think Colt made the choice to throw it in bounds.
Now, if you could do some of your stats magic by applying them to the offensive line and how they effect the team as a whole. How the ineffective blocking not only effects our offense but also our defense, special teams play, etc. I think you will find that the lack of quality offensive line play can really bring down all facets of the team. It is incredible that we have been able to win as many games as we have this year.
“lets make a deal” I’ll bet you that, on games where McCoy has no ‘sacks’ he wins 70% of those games!
Have to admit I didn’t read all of this article…people love to dump on McCoy, Hillis (can not believe with all the players missing big ‘chunks’ of time thanks to hamstrings…that he is being ‘savaged’ this way!)
Glad to see the ‘braintrust’ found the ‘culprit’ for the Browns losing ways…Pontbriand? C/mon Man! Senseless!!!
Read it Craig…good article, fair…