Mike Holmgren, Where Are You????
October 18, 2011Relating Pat Shurmur to Eric Mangini is Foolish
October 18, 2011In 2009, the Cleveland Indians were not good. You might remember it as the season that Tomo Ohka was allowed to throw 71 sub-replacement level innings. Or the season that saw Ryan Garko man 28 innings in the outfield. Or the year that Masa Kobayahsi was actually paid to be on a Major League roster. These were heady times to be an Indians fan.
We’ll likely remember 2009 as the nadir of the organization’s rebuild: the front office was in pure sell-off mode, shipping out everything that wasn’t nailed down for assets aimed to restock the club for another run at contention. Cliff Lee, Victor Martinez, Carl Pavano, Kelly Shoppach. Give us your poor, your tired, your Mitch Talbots and Yohan Pinos.
But there’s one trade that seems to get overlooked when we think back to these days: moving Mark DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals for Chris Perez and Jess Todd.
It seems fairly accepted wisdom that the Indians got the better side of the deal. Even though Todd eventually flamed out (and returned to the Cardinals organization, last I heard) Chris Perez slotted immediately into the eighth inning role in front of Kerry Wood. By mid-2010, the Indians had moved Wood’s onerous contract to the Yankees, and had a somewhat established closer for what amounted to a few weeks of Mark DeRosa.
Why only a few weeks? Because shortly after the Cardinals acquired DeRosa, he sustained an injury to a tendon in his wrist which effectively ended his season (and probably his career; he’s not been an effective everyday player since).
So all-in-all, this was a dynamite trade for the Indians: trading an aging veteran whose value was likely to decrease for a young, cheap, durable player who filled an immediate and future need on the club. These are the sorts of moves that teams like the Indians need to make to be successful.
But there’s more to the story than this. When the Indians traded DeRosa to St. Louis, it wasn’t at all certain that Chris Perez was going to be the pitcher coming back. In fact, the Indians gave St. Louis a choice: DeRosa could be theirs for either Chris Perez or….Jason Motte. The Cardinals chose to keep the flamethrower Jason Motte and part ways with Perez. The rest is history.
Well. Sorta.
For the first few years after the trade, the front office had to be thanking their lucky polo shirts that the Cardinals gave them Perez. Check out their respective lines for 2009-2010:
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
|
Perez |
120 |
2.93 |
1.133 |
9.7 |
4.1 |
2.35 |
0.9 |
Motte |
109 |
3.55 |
1.275 |
8.9 |
3.4 |
2.63 |
1.2 |
Perez had a better strikeout rate, homerun rate and ERA. He walked slightly more batters, but considering that for most of this time he was facing tougher AL lineups, it’s hard to argue that he wasn’t the better option.
Until, of course, 2011. This season, not only did Chris Perez’s numbers take a huge hit, but Jason Motte’s soared. Same chart, v2011:
IP |
ERA |
WHIP |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
|
Perez |
59.2 |
3.32 |
1.207 |
5.9* |
3.9 |
1.50 |
0.8 |
Motte |
68 |
2.25 |
0.956 |
8.3 |
2.1 |
3.94 |
0.3 |
*Lowest in AL among pitchers with at least 20 saves.
In every conceivable way, Jason Motte out-pitched Chris Perez in 2011: more innings, lower ERA, better K-rate, fewer baserunners. You name it, Motte wins it.
And now Jason Motte is the closer for a team in the World Series. He certainly isn’t the main reason they’re there. He probably isn’t among the top twenty reasons they’re there. But it’s worth wondering: would the Cardinals have been able to plug their leaky bullpen with a guy who boasts the second-worst strikeout rate among MLB closers?* Would the Indians be in better shape today had they acquired Jason Motte—the player who undoubtedly had higher upside—than the more polished Chris Perez?
*The winner of this dubious honor goes, of course, to Francisco Cordero of the Cincinnati Reds, who somehow managed to save 37 games while striking out only 5.43 batters per nine innings pitched. On the other hand, it should be noted that Cordero walked “only” 2.84 batters per nine, meaning that Chris Perez’s K/BB ratio was the worst among ALL closers. Hmmm….
I think the answers to these questions are probably up for debate, and it’s not like the Indians had any say in the matter anyway: the choice was the Cardinals’. Also, I don’t mean to rain on the Pure Rage Parade—like I said before, we certainly won the trade no matter how you look at it.
But with C-Pez’s arbitration right around the corner, I wonder if we haven’t already gotten more than we had any right to expect from Mark DeRosa. After all, if that trade taught us anything, it was about selling high. Just sayin…
7 Comments
” I wonder if we haven’t already gotten more than we had any right to expect from Mark DeRosa.”
best line of this thread. remember, it was St.L that had the choice of who to give up. if the Indians demanded Motte, then there is no indication that the Cardinals would have said yes to the trade.
also, I understand the reasons to fear the future on Perez. his peripheral numbers are scary. however, looking back, he also got the job done (in save situations). no, he’s not an elite closer, but there are few of those. he is in the next set of ‘good enough’ closers.
finally, if we do want to project ahead, then I would be thinking that Perez pitches better in 2012 than he did in 2011. Not sure if he gets back to those ’09/’10 numbers, but considering the history and sample size difference there should be a good chance he does better than ’11, no?
(and conversely, it’s doubtful Motte keeps that HR/9 rate which will affect the ERA and possibly other numbers)
motte was NOT the closer for St.L for most of the season. fernando salas (also not the original closer) was their closer most of the time and led the team in saves. motte didnt become the closer until about mid-august or sept, after which he did very well. however, Motte had the benefit of pitching mostly in setup situations all year (18 holds to lead the team). thats not say he will or wont be better or worse than perez in the long-run as a closer, its just not a true or fair comparison based on 2011 numbers. lets see how things go next year.
A little known secret in Cleveland is that Jon is actually the agent for Pestano.
Shhhhh…..
also, in Sabathia trade we chose Brantley over Tyler Green. So given choices the tribe has made some wise ones. Would love to know who else was on the Brewers’ top shelf next to LaPorta. Or maybe LaPorta was the only reason we even went shopping at their store. That would be sad.
harv – i believe laporta was the key, but mat gamel was a possibility as well. so was Alcides Escobar. as disappointing as LaPorta has been, Gamel has been a total flop so far.
thanks, Mike, this rings a vague bell, like Gamel was their untouchable or something.
Indians have enough relief pitching depth to trade one of their left-handed relievers and one of their right-handed relievers this off-season. I believe Hagadone could replace Rafael Perez and CC Lee could replace Joe Smith.
I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Chris Perez as long as he brought a major league player, not a prospect. If Chris Perez would bring a young, power right-handed hitting outfielder, then it definitely is worth consideration.
Relief pitching is where the Indians have the most expendable trade assets because of their minor league pitching depth – Lee, Hagadone, Stowell, Putnam, Judy, just to name a few. I also could see McCallister or Gomez filling the long-relief role that Durbin had this year.