NBA Owners Budge, Give Up on Hard Cap Stance
September 28, 2011Browns Players, Local Soldiers Team Up in Video Game Play
September 28, 2011Occasionally, behind the scenes we talk things out among ourselves as we try to make sense of things. Sometimes the journey is just as important as the destination.
Craig: I was discussing the Indians’ predicament at first base with a friend of mine today and we came to an intriguing conclusion. The Indians shouldn’t try to find a first baseman at all. They should find another catcher. There are some really typical Indians free agent type targets that could be available at catcher this off-season. Carlos Santana could play first and catch a little bit, or just move to first full-time. The Indians might also have Nick Johnson available as depth on the bench depending on LaPorta.
The Pirates certainly won’t pick up the TWO-YEAR option on Ryan Doumit. They would have to give him both years and he has only played 75 games this season. In his career, Doumit has never played more than 124 games in a season. That being said, Doumit hit over 300 in 217 at bats for the Pirates. He bats lefty so he is a natural fit with Lou Marson in a platoon situation.
In a one-year rental type of signing, maybe the Indians could sign Ramon Hernandez from the Reds. He will turn 36 next year, but he has played 90 games for the Reds. He bats right-handed so his platoon with Marson isn’t ideal, but he hit 283 so far with 12 homers in nearly 300 ABs.
Anyway, point being that the Indians might not be able to find the same caliber player for first base at their pricing that they might be able to find at catcher. I mean the Indians might be able to grab a Derrek Lee, Xavier Nady, or take a flier on Lyle Overbay, or maybe even Carlos Pena, but it seems that the Prince Fielder chase could maybe drive those prices higher this off-season.
I don’t know. What do you guys think?
Jon: I think it’s an intriguing idea, and one the Indians should certainly consider. If the right situation comes along, I might do it. But I’m sort of against it for two reasons, which are related.
The first is one of value: Carlos Santana as a catcher has the potential to be one of the more valuable players in the AL, whereas as a 1B, he’d be slightly above average. This is due to positional scarcity: you just don’t find catchers who can hit well all that often, whereas 1B who can hit are a lot more easily obtainable.
The second reason is once you move Santana to 1B, there’s really no going back. Players just don’t move to the left on the positional spectrum very often–which is to say that once you move from a difficult defensive position to an easier position, you’re likely to lose the skills that enabled you to play the harder position rather quickly. Once a 3B moves to 1B (Miggy Cabrera, for instance), he doesn’t move back. Once a center fielder moves to a corner, he doesn’t move back.
So to move Carlos Santana–a player who has the skills but not the polish to be a good catcher–to 1B, you’re basically punting on the additional value you might ever get from him behind the plate.
On top of all that, I’m not convinced that Marson still wouldn’t be our best bet at catcher if we abandon Santana. Sure, Doumit hits a bit better, but he’s been pretty terrible defensively by most advanced metrics. And again, in that case, why not just stick with Santana?
That’s my logic at least. Which, admittedly looks a bit suspect when you realize that our best option at first base next year might be Shelley Duncan.
Craig: All of this assumes that you can not, under any circumstances waste this “window” year. That might be the wrong logic, but that was our assumption.
Jon: OK. I think I disagree with the premise then. I’ve written before that I don’t think our window is closing. I think it might be just beginning to open. So I’d be ok with using 2012 to continue to get better, sort of what I understand the 2011 Browns to be doing. Don’t go out an patch holes with free agency, but develop the pieces you have into legitimate contenders. I really believe that Santana has the potential to be the best offensive catcher in the game and an adequate defensive player for the next six years. I just wouldn’t give up all that potential when I think things are going in the right direction right now.
Kirk: I agree with Jon about the positional value of keeping Santana at catcher. Right now, he’s a butcher/baker/candlestick maker at both catcher and first base. You might as well keep him behind the plate as long as he is not a guy that opposing teams run on relentlessly. I see the Tribe spending (some, enough to fit in a regular-sized wallet, perhaps) on a corner outfielder. I then see a Duncan/Marson platoon with Santana wearing a path between home and first at a 2:1 rate.
In regards to the window, Craig, if they waste 2012 like they did the end of this year (not saying it wasn’t explainable with injuries and such), they will regret it for years. The moment they made that Ubaldo trade, “it was on” in terms of getting it done in ’11-’13. I’m not saying they cannot have success after that, but giving away a guy like Pomeranz does set you back. That’s why I’m so hard on this Ubaldo trade and will continue to be. Ubaldo HAS to be the guy we thought we were getting or Antonetti’s going to be putting his house on the market.
To those that say you can replace him with one of the other draft picks, sure if you’re lucky and smart, you can. But, what if you still had him on top of who you replace him with? That makes you even more unstoppable in future pushes and a better bet in a sport that we all know is anything goes come October.
Scott: I too am for keeping him behind the plate for most of the reasons stated earlier. Had this discussion on Les’ show about a month or so ago; his value is best at catcher and he is still developing. Tough to remember that this was his first full season in the bigs.
————– end ————–
Back to me (Craig.)
So, what do you think? Â Shouldn’t the Indians just skip all this talk and sign Prince Fielder?
(Yes, I am kidding…. Not about wanting Prince Fielder… But, you know… )
20 Comments
the biggest issue with Santana behind the plate is his defense (all those passed balls that could have at least been blocked). and, possibly his calling of games (heard it mentioned many times by the media, though don’t really know how true it is).
the problem with us ‘outsiders’ discussing his future is that we do not know how hard he is willing/able to work on becoming a better catcher (both in defense and in calling games). the team should know.
if he is willing/able to learn, then we need to keep him at catcher. if he is more aloof, then we need to move him to 1B where he can get away with it more.
I’m with Jon. Santana has the most value at catcher. And I am willing to give LaPorta one last chance. If he doesn’t improve next year, he never will.
I am not opposed to Santana playing a game a week or so at first, however. It keeps his bat in the lineup (without taking Hafner out of the DH spot) and gives his body a break from playing catcher. With his production, though, we need him playing 6 out of 7 games, in some combination of C/1B/DH.
What about Beau Mills as an option at 1B? He had a pretty good year in the minors.
My prediction is that in order to make a statement and since they have already invested so much on the present they keep santana behind the plate and sign prince fielder
that allows them to bring thome back cause they can give santana a break from behind the plate and dh him when thome needs a night off
maybe the Indians could just sign Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, Beltran, and Buerle. Let’s just corner the whole market.
Im with mgbode, they should spend big money on big name free agents. All of them! Dolan could sign these guys, he just doesnt want to because hes cheap and doesnt spend money. The Indians need an owner like Randy Lerner who cares and spends money đ
After we get all those we should pony up and get CC back.
(Dolan still the best owner in Cleveland and it’s not even close)
Sorry, I just don’t get the Fielder love/lust thing. He’s looking for huge bucks and a long term deal, somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 years, $150M.
This guy, at 27, is another Mo Vaughn. Fat, slow, less than average defensively, and out of baseball basically at age 30, when all that obesity takes it’s natural course. Monstrous home runs, to be sure; he swings for the fences on every pitch.
Can you imagine still having $80-100M still on the books when all that’s written about him is a .230 batting average and his love for Krispy Kreme?
If its power you’re desirous of, realize this. The Indians were 15th in the majors in HR this year, at 154. Thats about 30 HR off the pace of the top 5 teams (NYY, BOS, TEX, and Balt/Toronto (!), who hit 180-200 dingers).
Where do you find 30 more HR? On the current roster–Choo 8 this year +10, Hafner 13+5, Kipnis7+10, Chiz 7+10, Duncan 11+5,Sizemore 10+5, Brantley 8+5,etc etc. Will they all hit those numbers? Hell no.But I don’t think 30 more is that hard to conjure up, ASSUMING health.
What we need in that RH bat, wherever he plays, is a guy who gets on base and has gap power. Sure, getting 25 HR would be nice. But hitting .290 with an OBP of .360 and 80 RBI would be seriously refreshing. Wish that could be LaPorta, right?
If the Grady Dr report is bad, push for Cuddyer. Carlos Queinton might be another option. (Not a fan of Willingham–there’s a reason the Nats let him walk last year).
Overpaying a fat slob who will hit 40 for a few years just doesn’t make sense to me.
I’m intrigued by the idea that the market this year might find better value in catchers than 1st base, as opposed to market value over Santana’s career. Honestly not sure what I’d do with that. But assuming he stays at catcher for the moment…AND assuming that guys like Fielder will drive up the market and result in overpayment for lower-tier 1B guys…I’d like to see Duncan or Hannahan get a legitimate shot at an everyday starting 1B job. For two reasons: one, I don’t think Laporta will come through. Two, both of those players’ hot streaks this season (with serious asterisks for small sample sizes) seem to be correlated with qualitative differences in their play, namely, more playing time and/or mechanical adjustments. Of course if you can get a better option at a good value via trade or spending, you have to do it. But if not, I’d rather see them focus the money on the outfield instead of overpaying at 1st. Course, I may be the only one who feels optimistic about those guys…
my take is that if everyone is healthy, we have decent power. what DTF didn’t point out is that while it might take 30+ HR’s to be in the top five, we only need about 10+ HR’s & 30+ RBI’s to rank in the top 10 in each category – which we could have gotten merely if choo had produced 2009-2010-like numbers.
with a healthy squad we actually can field six players with the potential of 20+ HR’s – and that doesn’t include laporta or sizemore.
choo RF
cabrera SS
santana C
hafner/duncan platoon DH
kipnis (who hit 7 HR’s in about 1/3 of a season) 2B
chisenhall (ditto) 3B
with that kind of lineup, forget sizemore, re-sign fukudome (but only one year since he’s 34) and put his career .363 OBP in the #2 slot behind brantley and see if laporta’s stroke doesn’t improve just by seeing better pitches because he’s got better hitters protecting him. he saw a lot of curve balls hitting 7th. put him in a spot in the lineup with a guy on base who’s a threat to steal, and he’ll see more fastballs. and *that* would be icing on the cake with your 1-2 hitters with .350+ OBP’s followed by 7 hitters each capable of 20 HR’s. figure fukudome for 10-15 HR’s and that’s 150-160 HR’s right there.
but power isn’t everything. IIRC the orioles are in the top 5 in HR’s but have scored less than 10 runs more than the indians. power with men on base is much more important. and there’s where having brantley & fukudome at 1&2 with higher OBP is critical. it’s also part of why losing sizemore’s offense isn’t such a big deal – in 2011, his numbers with RISP were downright abysmal.
but even runs are only one part of the equation. you win by a combination of scoring more runs AND giving up fewer runs. take out carmona’s awful numbers and the team ERA drops to about 3.85 which is almost 1/2 run improvement from 2010. and there’s more room for ERA improvement with tomlin and jiminez.
and that leads to run margin. part of the reason we’re still around .500 despite being -55 in run differential is that we won more of the close games (30-25 in one run games) and lost more of the games when the differential was 5 or more (14-25). and a lot of those losses are carmona’s. that’s also how the giants are 9 games over .500 despite a run differential of -5 for the season.
bottom line – we have a lot of room for improvement just by staying healthy and coming back more experienced. (though losing carrasco really hurts.) our power at the positions where defense is usually the priority (C & SS) gives the indians the flexibility to give laporta once last chance to sink or swim.
I like keeping Santana behind the plate. Getting that kind of production out of a catcher is not something every team in baseball is lucky enough to get. I think we should resign Fukudome as a corner outfielder and try to pursue someone like Josh Willingham. I think that Willingham could make the switch to first base rather easily, can be an emergency outfielder, and can give a solid middle of the order presence to the tribe in 2012.
I’m with Jon. Santana has more value at catcher. Keep him there as long as possible. Besides, Doutmit and Hernandez are as rough behind the plate as Santana is, right? If you’re convinced that it’s easier to get one of them versus a recycled 1B option, I guess you could make a case for playing Ramon Hernandez at 1B and Santana behind the plate.
I’m done with LaPorta. Good character, he’s made some big hits this year, but our window of opportunity just opened and it looks like it will last until 2014 (at the latest). We can’t wait on him any longer to develop.
-Santana’s 2011 WAR would make him the 5th best catcher in baseball (right between Y.Molina and McCann).
-Santana’s 2011 WAR would make him the 7th best firstbasemen in baseball (right between Mark Teixera and Michael Morse).
(stats from fangraphs.com).
So, he would be slightly better as a catcher. But, maybe as a firstbasemen, he would be able to contribute more with a lesser toll on his knees? Santana has a lot of room to improve (raising batting average and hitting with runners in scoring position).
Im with Doc on this one. I certainly understand the logic behind the argument that he’s more valuable as a catcher. However, is the difference really that drastic? I dont think it is.
I think he’s more valuable as a catcher to a team like the Yankees, or any team with the money to go out and sign a power hitting first baseman. The Indians dont have the luxury of chasing a Prince Fielder, Albert Pujols or even Carlos Pena in free agency. Our power hitter has to come from within the organization. The guy most likely to hit 35 home runs for the Tribe next season, is Carlos Santana.
Im all in favor of whatever they need to do to keep his bat in the lineup for 150 games. Kipnis, Cabrera, Choo and Santana, we need those 4 bats in the lineup as often as possible next season if we’re going to have a shot.
Doc, thats not how you can use WAR. If he was a full time catcher, his WAR, with the same offensive stats, would go up. As a full time 1B, his WAR would go down. Roughly estimating, if he played all year at 1B, his war would be about 2.2, putting him 16th around 16th at that position. If he was a full time catcher, his WAR would be 4.3, good for second in the majors at that position. Santana catching over 100 games and finding a decent bat (which may be Duncan) for 1b is the move.
Because of his defensive inefficiencies, isnt Duncan likely to have a negative WAR as a regular first baseman?
Then again, he did have a 0.8 WAR this season despite a -3.7 UZR (-18.5 UZR/150) in left field.
He had a positive UZR in limited time at first base, but he also had a positive UZR in the outfield last season. Who knows?
I for one dont like the idea of having Duncan in the field next season unless we have to. Not even at 1st base. The numbers say it might not be the worst thing in the world, but my gut feeling tells me Shelley is better off in a bench role. We’ll see though.
If Santana playing first as opposed to catching, can be the difference between, lets say, playing 130 games and 150, then what? Are we better off with him catching even if it means that he plays 20-30 fewer games?
I would also guess that Duncan is below average at 1B, but if we do commit to it, he can get enough work in to be passable by opening day.
And if our other options at C and 1B were fairly equal, then we would be better with Santana catching 130 games to playing 150 at first, by about the two wins that I back-of-the-enveloped above. Of course, Santana catching 130 games doesn’t really prevent him from playing 1B the other 20-30 games.
I meant playing 130 games total, assuming that catching full time or close to full time will take a toll on his body. If Carlos can post a 4.3 WAR as a full time catcher, Im not sure that does a whole lotta good if we have a negative WAR player at first. Isnt the team WAR the most important thing?
And the 4.3 WAR, this is assuming that he stays healthy.
I mean, how devastating was it to be missing Victor Martinez for 89 games in 2008? I cant sit here and definitively say that playing 1st would have prevented that, but its obvious watching Victor lately that catching has taken its toll on his body. Hes close to a point where he will be DH’ing full time if he’s not there already.
I think in regards to Carlos, we need his bat in the middle of the lineup more than anything. Playing 1st is more likely to be conducive to his short and long term health. An injury to Santana next season would be devastating, we need power in the middle of the lineup and we cant afford to go sign a slugger in free agency. Carlos has gotta be the guy.
I mean, Im ok with him catching if we can find a good first baseman. But who would be available in our price range thats also an upgrade over the guys we have? (Duncan, LaPorta)
I think it would be cheaper and easier to find a decent catcher. Power hitting first baseman arent cheap, we might however be able to bring in a reasonably priced and serviceable catcher like Ramon Hernandez or Chris Iannetta. Hernandez has a WAR of 2.0 and Iannetta 2.6, combine that with Santana’s estimated 2.2 at 1st, and its kind of a wash with Santana’s 4.3 catching and a replacement level or lower player at 1st. And Santana is more likely to get a through a full season healthy at 1st.
We’ll see though, it will be interesting to see what they decide to do with that situation.
While the idea of Doumit makes sense, his injury history comes into question. Let’s say he gets hurt, do you move Santana back to catcher or do you pick up someone off the scrap heap until he heals? You’re not going to find too many catchers (that are any good) that hit from the left side. So, I don’t think it’s necessary to go with a platoon.
I would really like to see them go back to Colorado and see about the availability of Chris Ianetta. While he has had issues with the batting average, .235 career mark, he can crush the ball out of any ballpark, and he can draw a walk. He would be ideal to play behind the plate 3 times a week and can pinch hit late in games. He is signed through 2012 at roughly $2.7M with an option for 2013.
I would really like to see what Chun Chen has to offer but he may be a year or two away from contributing at the major league level. He can hit and he can throw out baserunners although he does need to work on passed balls (18 this year). But, in the meantime, Ianetta would add some pop and some experience and cheaply. With Colorado having 2 stud catching prospects they debuted this year, it shouldn’t cost all that much either. Hey, Matt LaPorta? I can dream, right?