Browns Should Look to Stay Young This Year
August 30, 2011Riding the Buckeye QB Carousel
August 30, 2011
If you haven’t noticed, I’ve been absent from these parts for most of the last two weeks: nuptial reverie followed by a phoneless honeymoon’ll do that to a guy.
Anyway, I’m trying to figure out what to write about, and since I haven’t seen any Tribe games in a fortnight or so, I thought I’d touch on a few of the recent tidbits to prime my pump. Most of this will be old hat to you, but without getting my feet wet again, I won’t be much use for the September push. We’ll get to that in due time.
With that said, let’s stew on some of the stories I missed.
Thome is once again our homey. I didn’t use my phone at all while away: put it in the lockbox and didn’t see a thing until I landed in Charlotte yesterday. As we turned on our phones in the airport, it’s honestly the first thing we both saw. Well, after the Minka and Derek news. I mean, can’t that guy catch a break?
Anyway, reactions followed thusly: “Holy…wow. Thome is back. He already homered. He sold out his return game. I was…probably drinking a margarita during that.”
I’ll admit I was surprised, but this was before I learned that Hafner is done for the year, and our currently-constructed outfield might struggle to make the Little League World Series.
Obviously, the move is a good one, even in a vacuum. Thome essentially replaces Hafner—he has a higher OPS this season, but more dramatic left-handed splits than Pronk. As a baseball move, it’s basically a lateral one, which is saying a lot when you’re trying to replace your highest paid player with waiver-wire scrap-heap.
Emotionally, well, I don’t go in for all that stuff as much as some. But I know that a lot of people do, and after the trials and tribulations the fanbase has been through over the last three years, if this gesture makes people happy, it makes me happy too. As Homer J Simpson would say, “I like stories.” This happens to be a good one. Good on you JIM JAM. Now about that dormant twitter feed…
Chris Perez is (quietly?) having an awful season. You might not think that’s fair. So let me explain why it is.
First, ignore stats that allow too much noise in—things like saves, blown and converted (which are inherently nonsensical inventions), ERA (which has so much noise in small samples) and wins (which, for a relief pitcher, might be the single silliest statistic on record). Let’s look instead at the things that will, for the most part, balance out in a smaller sample size. I’m thinking about his strikeout rate, his walk rate, and maybe his home runs allowed (though there’s noise there too, for sure).
Here are Chris Perez’s pre-2011 numbers juxtaposed with this season:
|
TBF |
IP |
K% |
BB% |
K/BB |
HR/9 |
K/9 |
BB/9 |
|
|
pre-2011 |
676 |
161.2 |
25.3% |
11.4% |
2.22 |
0.95 |
9.52 |
4.29 |
| 2011 |
211 |
50.2 |
15.2% |
11.4% |
1.33 |
0.71 |
5.68 |
4.26 |
So what’s the change? It’s pretty obvious that he’s just not striking anyone out this year. You can live with a walk-rate above 11% (though I wouldn’t advise it) so long as you’re striking out more than a fifth of the batters you face. When that drops down to 15% though? You’re in some trouble.
So while Perez has actually been a bit lucky in the HR department this season, it’s not a terrible surprise that his results are worse than in years past. The question, of course, is whether he can regain the sort of strikeout prowess he once possessed. I haven’t a clue to as whether that’s possible, but keep in mind: this season Vinnie Pestano has struck out 33% of the batters he’s faced while walking only 9%. Say what you will about the role of an established closer, but right now, there is no doubt in my mind which guy I want in the stickiest situations. And he’s not particularly hirsute.
When It All Goes Wrong Again. Nobody’s beat the drum of optimism more than I have this year. As early as May I was suggesting that we were the favorites to win the division. We are, at present, decidedly not the favorites to win the division.
So I was wrong. We are a huge longshot now. It’s unlikely that the division race will even become interesting over the next month. It would take a minor miracle for this team to win the division, and even a cockeyed optimist like Billy Mumfrey can see that now.
But I’ve had too much fun this season so far to call this a flop. I’m going to look forward to September, to continue to hope for the unlikely. After all, if this year has taught us anything, it’s that surprises happen all the time in baseball. And they don’t all have to be gut punches. Look at Justin Masterson and David Huff. Look at Asdrubal Cabrera and Jason Kipnis. Look at Vinnie Pestano, and tell me that you can predict what’s going to happen.
So even if we can’t pull this out, I can’t really despair too much. I’ve not felt as good about my baseball team as I do now in almost four years. That’s a long time to wait, and it feels good to believe again, even if it’s in a team that’s likely to miss out on the dance.
13 Comments
This is where the sabermetric people lose me. The mere suggestion that Perez is having an awful season is insane. Whether we like it or not the only job a closer has is to get the save. Having a bad closer and 9th inning problems can destroy a team. I understand the numbers behind things (mainly that the percentage of wins when leading in the 9th inning of a game has never changed even though the closer is a relatively new thing to the history of baseball) but Perez gets the job done. You also have to look at the bright side…if he keeps getting the job done we at least have Pestano for the future instead of overpaying Perez. Then we can all hope that Pestano can get it done in the 9th inning because some guys just change in the 9th.
Perez’ strikeout numbers are alarming, and lately he always seems to be flirting with disaster. I like Perez but Im not convinced that he will be the long term answer in the closers role.
However, I dont agree that hes had an *awful* season though.
Welcome back, Jon. Hope you had a fantastic honeymoon and enjoy a great future together!
Although I’m not as much of a sabermetric person as you are, I love reading your articles and understand and agree with your consclusions. How can you argue with statistical facts? This article is no different. From a statistical view the Indians would be better served with Pestano as the closer (not to mention he has experience closing games).
Since the Indians seem to make a lot of decisions based on statistics, why haven’t they made this obvious move? Are they WFNY?
Pestano hasnt been a closer at the big league level yet, and now probably isnt the time to find out if hes right for the job. He saved 71 games in the minors and he will probably get a chance to close at some point or another, but I dont think now is the time.
Manny is very loyal to his guys, perhaps to a fault at times, but hes not going to yank Perez from the closers role unless he has to.
We can all cherry pick stats. My favorite is that Pestano and Perez each have 4 blown saves. Perez is the closer and he is getting the job done. Of all the things to worry about on this team…sheesh
Jon, I don’t pretend to easily intuit the importance of some of the stats upon which you rely; seems to me many can be challenged and can be close to meaningless without some stat-free baseball context.
Here’s one example that I think might be relevant: you are comparing his innings pitched as closer this year with a combo of closer and many non-closer innings in previous years. My baseball watching tells me that batters may swing differently in the 9th inning of a close game than the 7th or 8th innings, with the desperation to get on base. May lead to shorter swings, fewer strike outs on the whole (of course some guys like Thome will always let it rip in the 9th). You may give me the stat-geek answer: “there are no stats to support your theory,” and we are at loggerheads, baseball fan v. sabermatricioan, I see the tight body language and weak at-bats of certain guys with runners on and you tell me clutch hitting doesn’t exist statistically.
Well, thought I was going to ask you a question but I guess just was making a statement. I think what I see in a baseball game is valid, stats are valid, but in this geekiest baseball period ever it’s easy to get accurate statistical conclusions but misleading baseball conclusions.
“phoneless honeymoon” – smartest thing you ever did I am sure.
—-
as for Perez, no he is not striking people out and he’s getting into trouble. however, for whatever reason, when the pressure mounts, he seems to get the job done. not sure how or why, but he gets it done even if it doesn’t always make statistical sense.
also, we don’t know if Pestano would be able to handle the closer role. there have been plenty of 8th inning stalwarts that have struggled with it (and plenty that have not). also, I have seen often that the 8th inning guy is just as important (or more important) than the closer. So, maybe we have them in the right place afterall?
“I’ve not felt as good about my baseball team as I do now in almost four years. That’s a long time to wait, and it feels good to believe again, even if it’s in a team that’s likely to miss out on the dance.”
QFT. Even if we don’t make the postseason this year — and my cynicism was partially boiled away in May, so I’m not willing to write off the team just yet — this has still been the most fun I’ve had through the baseball season since 2007, and possibly since 1997.
@8- Well put. We have been playing with house money all season. I am close to giving up but if we can get within 3-4 games by next weekend then we have at least one more series to get excited about (v. Tigers).
Actually, we’re better off having Perez pitch in the nobody-on-base, just-get-three-outs 9th and Pestano pitch in the two-on-one-out, please-get-us-out-of-this 7th or 8th.
I’m a sabermetric guy through and through. If I were to make a serious talent evaluation about a player based on two dozen ABs at the start of April, I’d be laughed out the building. Yet when a guy goes 8-for-12 with RISPs, he’s all of a sudden “clutch”. Or because a closer “dominates” over thirty innings, he’s worth $6M a year. I just don’t get that mindset.
What kills me (and this is a thing SI’s Joe Posnanski points out quite a bit) is that baseball traditionalists often demean statistical minded fans by claiming they obsess over stupid stats (usually some hyperbolic example, “runs scored on Tuesday while wearing red socks…”) yet the vast majority of stats loved by the same traditionalists are arbitrary, wonky, and goofy (wins, ERA, RBIs). Heck, even batting average, a supposedly simple and true stat, is pretty idiotic when you look into it.
And I love how most attacks on statistical baseball usually start off with: “Well, I know the facts back you up completely, but…”
Heck, even if you watch EVERY Indians game for your entire life, you’ve only watched like 6% of the baseball played during that period. Add in the hundred years or so of before that and you’re at, what, .06% or something like that? Basically, something absurdly small. And I’m supposed to take your observations about how baseball works over all-encompassing statistical analysis?
/rant off
@ Ben,
While I’ll stop short of calling his season “awful,” I disagree that saves are the only metric here. Closers typically pitch the top half of the 9th in a tied game. Perez has been awful in these situations, hence many of his losses. In a pennant race when it comes down to a few games of separation in the standings, those lost games are crucial, along with the standard blown saves that led to losses.
I still see Perez as the LT closer, but he’s been kind of shaky this year. There’s no getting around that.
@cleveland78
Perez has been beyond awful in those situations. I agree with you 100% on that. I just have a hard time saying someone is shaky when I look around the AL at the other closers.
@ NJ: that’s not what I said. Here or anywhere.