Browns Smart to Stay Cautious in Free Agency
July 29, 2011WFNY Podcast: MLB Trade Deadline and NFL Free Agency
July 29, 2011Yesterday, when word of the Fukudome trade broke, I opined thusly:
Not that I disagree with those sentiments exactly (though I do apologize for the misspelling, Anglophile that I am), but I’d like to expand a bit today. Yes, Fukudome doesn’t make a ton of sense for the Indians considering that he’s left handed. We were all so focused on a right handed outfielder that, to some degree, I poo-pooed the trade yesterday. I think that was a bit of an over-reaction.
So today, we should acknowledge a few things. Let’s do this numerically, so that I don’t lose my train of thought.
1) Kosuke Fukudome is better than Travis Buck.
This is basically what happened yesterday: we added Fukudome and cut Travis Buck (Buck may pass through waivers and stay in the organization—we’ll see). So, if we’re interested in making the team better this year, we need to judge those two against one another. Here are the numbers, both career and 2011:
|
AVG |
OBP |
SLG |
||
|
Career |
||||
| Buck |
0.246 |
0.320 |
0.408 |
|
| Fukudome |
0.262 |
0.369 |
0.403 |
|
|
2011 |
||||
| Buck |
0.228 |
0.275 |
0.342 |
|
| Fukudome |
0.273 |
0.374 |
0.369 |
Is that clear enough to suggest that we made an upgrade? I think so. But I had no idea that Fukudome was such an on-base machine. For the record, his .374 OBP would rank second on the Indians, behind only Travis Hafner.
On top of that, Fukudome is considered a good defender and an above average baserunner (sorry Pronk!). As Antonetti said yesterday, we’re a better team today for this trade. There is no arguing this, so far as I can tell.
2) The prospects we gave up are not likely to become impact players.
Carlton Smith is not really in this conversation. In seven minor league seasons, he has a career ERA of 4.21. In his two seasons in AAA, he has a 5.46 ERA. He will turn 26 this winter. He is, more or less, the definition of “roster fodder”.
Abner Abreu, on the other hand, has some legitimate claim to respectability. He’s only 21, and, despite some uninspiring numbers, has shown the tools to grow into a MLB player. But the numbers do tend to stand out. In over 1,500 career plate appearances—none above A ball—he has an OBP of .311. That stinks. Sure, he might become something eventually, but this is hardly the definition of costly in my eyes.
3) Fukudome will potentially net us a high draft pick.
The last I read, Fukudome is likely to end the season as “Type B” free agent, which means if the Indians offer him arbitration (and he declines) we’ll get a draft pick out the signing in the supplemental round (between the first and second round). Jason Kipnis was a second round pick. In other words, these picks are not without value.
4) The money we took on should not affect our competitiveness going forward.
The Indians picked up $775,000 of Fukudome’s remaining salary. This is less than we’ll pay Travis Hafner for his next 10 games. This is not a prohibitive amount of money, and because of this, I would suggest the Indians are still in the market to add a player (and the requisite salary) that might have a significant impact on the team.
In short, I just don’t see the downside to this deal. Sure, it might not be chock full of upside, but I don’t think there’s any way to argue that Antonetti didn’t make the team better today without risking tomorrow. What’s not to like?
25 Comments
The draft pick compensation should not be part of our thinking on the value of this trade. If we offer Fukudome arbitration (which we have to in order to receive draft pick compensation) his salary next year if he were to accept would be somewhere in the vicinity of 10 million dollars. Far, far more than we should risk being on the hook for. Therefore, we will never see the draft pick compensation.
It is kind of like if the Browns were to sign Green bay running back Brandon Jackson, not a big splash type of move but one that will make the team better or at the very least give them some depth… oh wait we did that too.
Antonetti claimed this trade improved the team “incrementally” i.e. a slight upgrade over Buck. I have no doubt Fukudome will be better than Buck, but he isn’t going to secure us a playoff berth this year or solve the teams long-term issues either. I’d doubt they offer him arbitration as well, meaning he is a 3 month rental to see if the Indians, a team since its 30-15 start has one of the worst records in the league, can somehow find a way into obtaining a playoff berth and quick exit.
Does Fukudome stay in the leadoff spot, pushing Brantley to 2 and Asdrubel in the 3-hole?
If so, then the table could get set for Asdrubel far more often, which would be nice.
Agree with the overall premise (What’s not to like!?!) but agree with the comments that there is no way we can offer Fukudome arbitration… Which still is fine. Low risk, low reward. Not a problem.
Are you really willing to take a potential 8-10 million dollar risk to get a draft pick. Fukudome could accept arbitration and we’d be screwed on that front. I don’t think the draft pick is a factor at all in this deal rather Ancelotti is willing to risk having to pay Fukudome next year.
With as much as Matt LaPorta has struggled, Im a little surprised that there has been no talk of the Indians trying to add a first baseman. Im still seeing rumors about Ludwick, even though weve added Fukudome. And Ludwick is having an Austin Kearns esque season. What do we need more at this point, another outfielder or a first baseman?
Why would he be in the vicinity of $10M?
I had the same reaction, but I changed my mind once the details of the trade came out and I took a look at the type of player Fukudome really is (rather than the rep he’s gotten).
Why do people think Fukudome will get $8M+ in arbitration? If his agent comes to arbiter with that number, I have to imagine they’d go with whatever low ball number we put out there.
Ludwick has bad numbers, but just keep in mind that he plays his home games in a power hitter’s graveyard. His road numbers are .258/.300/.389 – certainly not All-Star worthy, but not exactly like Austin Kearns’ .218/.318/.313.
I hope youre right. Ludwick put up solid numbers in St Louis, even last year before the trade he was hitting well. I hope his lack of production in San Diego has more to do with being on a bad offensive team, and as you mentioned the pitchers park that he plays in. His numbers in San Diego have been REALLY bad though. I hope a fresh start will do him some good because if the Indians make another move, I get the feeling he will be the guy.
mgbode – Fukudome is batting sixth tonight.
No way we’re taking the risk of him accepting $9-$10 MILLION next year!!!
This is a 3 month rental, that’s too expensive of a risk.
What’s not to like?
Take 2
What’s not to like/
Hey, it worked! I think. I’m having mountains of trouble with the new format, but am trying to work through it. So please excuse these test posts.
he has made $12mil/year for the last 4 years. as silly as that might sound, it can definitely influence things when he goes to arbitration.
the counter argument is that he never fulfilled the promise of his contract and that he is now 34 years old. but, there would still be a risk.
test away!
Overall, the Fukudome trade looks good, though I won’t be happy if this is the only trade. We’re definitely a few players away from contention right now, though those people aren’t in our minor league system…meaning trading is our best shot.
Also, am I the only one who thinks we at least beat our first round opponent if we get in the playoffs this year? If I’m not mistaken San Francisco didn’t look so good last year at this point, made a couple moves, and won it all…why can’t that happen to the Tribe?
maybe. i don’t claim to be an expert on arbitration hearings.
it just seems that his situation would be far from a slam dunk. he’d have just as much at stake as we would to take it all the way to the arbiter. which means he might be more than happy to decline arbitration to test the free market and give us those extra picks.
i just don’t understand the assumption that he’d automatically be looking at $10M if things went to arbitration.
oh, it could. but we’d have to beat either the Texas Rangers, NYY, or Boston Red Sox to do it.
we matchup best with Boston, but our recent string of 6 straight series clinching losses to them makes me nervous (along with the fact they might be the most talented team in MLB)
By all means. I get paid by the number of comments.
(this may not actually be true)
Yeah. Im no expert either, but $10 million sounds a bit high to me. There is still, of course, the possibility that we dont pick up grady’s option, which would free up a roster spot and some $. Im not saying we definitely offer kosuke arbitration, but it remains a possibility IMHO.
Good article. I was happy because it gets Travis Buck off the field and he is a big OB guy. I was just happy to finally hear something positive about the move.