All-Star Voting Updates and Predictions

A few weeks ago, Al DiFranco gave us his early take on the A.L. All-Stars. He’s back today to take a second crack at the starters and reserves.

As the Tribe struggles through a June swoon, the plethora of All-Star roster spots we all hoped would be filled with guys wearing Chief Wahoo on their caps (or the “C” that seems to have replaced our beloved mascot) is dwindling down to a very select few. Three weeks ago, I had tabbed four Indians (Justin Masterson, Chris Perez, Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Brantley) as American League All-Stars. Here is how I see the AL roster shaking out as of today.

A quick primer on the assembly of an All-Star Roster:

• AL and NL rosters consist of 34 players each.

• Each team in the league must be represented by at least one player.

• Fans will vote for the starters at each position, except for starting pitcher.

• Players, coaches, and managers vote for five starting pitchers, three relievers, and one back-up player at each position.

• The manager of each league’s All-Star team fills the remainder of the roster.

• Fans will vote for one additional player off a list of five players that are identified by the All-Star manager and Commissioner’s Office.

*Indicates fan voting leader as of results released by MLB on June 14, 2011

First base (3)

Al’s Picks:

*Adrian Gonzalez (BOS) .347-13-60

Miguel Cabrera (DET) .316-13-46

Paul Konerko (CHW) .322-16-52

Other Candidates:

Adam Lind (TOR) .331-12-39

Mark Teixeira (NYY) .250-19-49

Analysis:

Gonzalez deserves the starting nod and should win it over Teixeira. Cabrera and Konerko are putting up huge numbers. Lind is having a great season, but will probably fall prey to the “bigger name” philosophical argument. It would be tough to leave Teixeira off the AL roster, but there are too many players having better seasons.

Second base (2)

Al’s Picks

*Robinson Cano (NYY) .284-13-42

Howard Kendrick (LAA) .308-7-23

Other Candidates:

Ben Zobrist (TB) .266-9-36

Analysis:

Cano is running away with the fan vote and is having another solid season. Kendrick has been a rare bright spot for the struggling Angels. Zobrist would offer some important position flexibility in the All-Star Game, but is likely to miss out.

Short stop (3)

Al’s Picks:

*Derek Jeter (NYY) .260-2-20

Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) .297-12-43

Jhonny Peralta (DET) .300-9-34

Other Candidates:

Alexei Ramirez (CHW) .293-6-33

Erick Aybar (LAA) .288-3-24

Yunel Escobar (KC) .284-7-25

Elvis Andrus (TEX) .275-3-29

J.J. Hardy (MIN) .296-6-20

Analysis:

It amazes me how many AL short stops are having solid seasons. At the top of that list is Asdrubal Cabrera, who should be the starter and may still get the nod with Derek Jeter’s recent trip to the DL. Peralta has been solid all season for the red hot Tigers, but he’ll need to finish strong to fend off the many contenders for the third spot.

Third base (3)

Al’s Picks:

*Alex Rodriguez (NYY) .288-13-42

Adrian Beltre (TEX) .265-12-48

Kevin Youkilis (BOS) .259-9-42

Other Candidates:

Maicer Izturis (LAA) .286-3-17

Analysis:

As strong as the short stops have been in the AL this season, the guys manning the hot corner have struggled. A-Rod is putting up his typical numbers and Beltre has been solid for the Rangers. Youkilis is struggling with his average, but he has been clutch in RBI situations for the Red Sox. Izturis likely has no shot at making the team, but he’s the best of the rest.

Catcher (2)

Al’s Picks:

*Russell Martin (NYY) .232-9-27

Alex Avila (DET) .296-9-36

Other Candidates

Matt Wieters (BAL) .276-6-30

A.J. Pierzynski (CHW) .280-2-19

Analysis:

Martin has run away with the fan vote, which is disappointing because Alex Avila has been stellar for the Tigers. Wieters and Pierzynski would make for an interesting debate if Avila were to win the fan vote, but that doesn’t look likely.

Outfield (6)

Al’s Picks:

*Jose Bautista (TOR) .338-21-42

*Curtis Granderson (NYY) .282-21-51

*Josh Hamilton (TEX) .280-4-23

Matt Joyce (TB) .327-10-34

Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) .318-7-33

Adam Jones (BAL) .295-9-36

Other Candidates:

Jeff Francoeur (KC) .273-9-41

Carlos Quentin (CHW) .269-17-47

Analysis:

The fans are doing Bautista and Granderson justice in the voting, as they are the two most deserving outfield candidates. The third, Hamilton, has missed much of the first half due to injury…but it looks like he will be starting in Phoenix next month. In terms of the reserve candidates, Jones has had a great first half for the Orioles, and he is an outstanding center fielder. Joyce has been a very important part of the Rays’ first half. Ellsbury has been dynamic at the plate, on the basepaths (24 steals) and in the field for the Red Sox.

Designated Hitter (2)

Al’s Picks:

*David Ortiz (BOS) .321-17-43

Billy Butler (KC) .306-6-31

Jason Kubel (MIN) .310-5-30

Other Candidates:

Vladimir Guerrero (BAL) .281-6-26

Victor Martinez (DET) .318-6-36

Michael Young (TEX) .305-3-42

Johnny Damon (TB) .281-8-33

Analysis:

In just three weeks, Ortiz has nearly about doubled his HR and RBI totals for the season. He’s on an amazing tear and deserves the starting nod. Butler has been the best player for the Royals all season and will be a good representative for KC. Kubel will likely be the lone Minnesota Twin on the AL roster, so he locks up the third and final spot, despite some solid seasons for others that are listed.

Starting Pitcher (8)

Al’s Picks:

Justin Verlander (DET) 8-3, 2.66

Jon Lester (BOS) 9-2, 3.73

Dan Haren (LAA) 6-4, 2.54

Felix Hernandez (SEA) 7-5, 3.30

Alexi Ogando (TEX) 7-1, 2.71

Josh Beckett (BOS) 5-2, 2.06

Jared Weaver (LAA) 8-4, 2.06

Gio Gonzalez (OAK) 5-5, 2.67

Other Candidates

C.C. Sabathia (NYY) 8-4, 3.28

Zach Britton (BAL) 6-4, 3.18

Mark Buehrle (CHW) 6-4, 3.95

Max Scherzer (DET) 8-2, 4.39

Jeremy Hellickson (TB) 7-4, 3.03

Michael Pineda (SEA) 6-4, 2.72

C.J. Wilson (TEX) 7-3, 3.09

James Shields (TB) 6-4, 2.60

David Price (TB) 7-5, 3.51

Justin Masterson (CLE) 5-5, 3.16

Analysis:

The age old argument over what is more important, wins or ERA, confounded me in this analysis. Some pitchers have both in their favor, like Verlander, Weaver, and Ogando. Others rely on the wins (Lester) or ERA (Haren, Beckett). Hernandez just flat out passes the “smell test” and deserves to be on the roster. He also is among the league leaders in innings pitched and strikeouts and should make the team. Gonzalez is Oakland’s best candidate, so he fills a spot. Some other excellent candidates just missed out, especially Scherzer and Pineda, but a few starts can make a difference in this equation (good or bad).

Relief Pitcher (4)

Al’s Picks:

Chris Perez (CLE) 2-2, 2.59, 16-17 saves

Mariano Rivera (NYY) 1-1, 1.85, 16-19 saves

Jose Valverde (DET) 2-2, 2.79, 16-16 saves

Neftali Feliz (TEX) 0-0, 1.21, 13-16 saves

Other Candidates:

Kyle Farnsworth (TB) 2-1, 1.48, 14-15 saves

Jordan Walden (LAA) 0-1, 2.76, 15-18 saves

Brandon League (SEA) 0-4, 4.18, 18-21 saves

Analysis:

Perez has been outstanding for the Tribe, but Rivera will likely be the ninth inning closer for the AL should the opportunity arise. Valverde and Feliz have carried the closer torch for their respective first place teams. The other candidates are all having good seasons, but unless one of the four top guys struggle over the next few weeks, this list probably won’t change much.

Al’s AL All-Star Final Breakdown by Team:

New York Yankees (6): Cano, Granderson, Jeter, Rodriguez, Martin, Rivera

Boston Red Sox (6) : Ortiz, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Ellsbury, Lester, Beckett

Detroit Tigers (5): Cabrera, Peralta, Avila, Verlander, Valverde

Texas Rangers (4): Beltre, Hamilton, Ogando, Feliz

Los Angeles Angels (3): Kendrick, Weaver, Haren

Cleveland Indians (2): Cabrera, Perez

Seattle Mariners (1): Hernandez

Tampa Bay Rays (1): Joyce

Baltimore Orioles (1): Jones

Chicago White Sox (1): Konerko

Kansas City Royals (1): Butler

Minnesota Twins (1): Kubel

Oakland Athletics (1): Gonzalez

Toronto Blue Jays (1): Bautista