The Value of Seneca Wallace
May 13, 2011WFNY Podcast: Cavs’ Draft and Indians’ Future
May 13, 2011Over this past weekend, Trevor Crowe said something that made me think:
The first thing it made me think: Trevor Crowe has an iPad? That’s really neat. Maybe I should get me one of those…
It also made me think: Why the quotation marks? Does Trevor Crowe not believe that numbers actually exist? That they are so ethereal they must be referred to with scare quotes? Have numbers become, after all this, scary?
Then I got down to the meat of his comment. Namely, that people like me are dorks who don’t wear jocks. At least not for their intended purpose. And for that reason, no one should be casting any aspersions on Orlando Cabrera’s play this season.
His argument, of course, is that if you were to judge Orlando Cabrera on his numbers—those things that are measurable—you will miss all of the things that he brings to the table that aren’t measurable. I assume he’s talking about Cabrera’s leadership or his intelligence or his grit or his enthusiasm.* Let’s just lump these things into a single category called “Ecksteiness”—as in, “Wow! He may not have a great batting average, but that Cabrera has off-the-charts Ecksteiness!”
*It is possible of course, that Crowe was talking about Cabrera’s clutch ability or his defense. But those actually are attributes that we jockless wonders attempt to quantify, so I’m leaving them out. For whatever it’s worth, Cabrera’s performed well in both categories over the course of his career. He gets quantifiable credit for them.
And, while it’s hard for me to avoid a snarky response, I think ole’ Crazy Eyez Rally Killa™ might have a point here. There is so much about baseball that we can never know as fans, things that analysts can never quantify—so much darn Ecksteiness floating around—that every judgment we ever make is necessarily based on incomplete information. For example, I have no idea whether, at the major league level, having “confidence” at the plate really matters. I would assume that it does, but I would also assume that most professional athletes are already particularly confident beings. They are, after all, among the best thousand or so people in the world at what they do. The point is, I just don’t know. I can’t know. I don’t wear a jock, remember? And Ecksteiness comprises a thousand other things just like “confidence” that may or may not have an effect on a team’s ability to score or prevent runs.
So quite naturally, camps become established. In the face of all this confusion, you’re forced to be either a numbers guy or a jock guy. You either believe in the intangibles or you worship at the altar of pocket protectors. As soon as someone mocks the other side—something of which I’ve been particularly guilty at times—the arms race is on.
Which seems to me sort of sad. Because I really don’t believe that everything in baseball is quantifiable.
Certainly, a good deal of it is, maybe more than some believe. I know, for example, that Orlando Cabrera’s on-base percentage is currently .295. I know that he has made more outs for the Indians this year than any other player on the team. I know that his fielding hasn’t been as good as I’d hoped (though I’m not sure he’s cost us six runs as his UZR suggests).
But I also know that we’re winning. And I know that last year we weren’t. I know that this team feels different to me. They seem more cohesive. And, most importantly, I know that I don’t know enough to say that Orlando Cabrera is not responsible for some of this. He really could be—despite all the outs for which he’s been responsible.
It reminds me of the debates that statheads get into from time to time about managers. Make no mistake: managers do have an effect on the games. Pitching changes matter. Stolen base attempts and bunts matter. Even lineups matter a little bit. But none of these things matter nearly as much as our debates would lead you to believe. It seems to me that a manager’s biggest job isn’t strategy or in-game decision-making, but making sure that the roster stays focused and plays hard. These are things that—no matter how hard we try—we’ll always have some trouble quantifying.
Sometimes I hate Manny Acta’s decisions during the game. I reserve the right, as Jay Levin once put it, to engage in the lowest form of discourse: managerial second-guessing. But I also believe—even simultaneously—that he’s doing a great job, and was absolutely the right choice for Shapiro to have made.
The question to me then, is how much to weigh those intangibles? For a manager, I’d say you have to weigh them pretty significantly. I mean, unless your manager is Dusty Baker and he single-handedly destroys the arms of your best two pitchers by giving them unconscionable workloads, a manager’s biggest job is fairly hard to measure. Sure, it’s important to put players in a position to succeed and to know the percentages, but it’s a lot more important to have good players (which a manager can’t control) and motivated players (which he probably can, to an extent).
For players though? I don’t know. Crash Davis said you never mess with a winning streak, and I tend to agree. During that 14 game home-winning stretch, I wouldn’t have messed with the lineup either. Let O-Cab keep hacking away at the first pitch if that’s what’s working.
But the winning streak is over now, and Orlando’s still making outs at a prodigious pace. Someone with a pay-grade higher than my own will have to figure out pretty quickly if his Ecksteiness sufficiently counterweights his poor play. I would probably be thinking at least about tweaking the lineup, if not looking to Columbus for help. After all, two of our more Major-League-ready prospects happen to play second base (and that’s not even counting Jason Donald, who, once upon a time, mattered). I’d think about whether what we’ve gotten from Cabrera is already more than we had any right to expect, and that sometimes you need to quit while you’re ahead.
But what do I know? I don’t even own a jock.
23 Comments
Maybe TC is hoping someone won’t judge him on his “numbers” too. haha
I dont get the angst towards Cabrera. I think hes been decent in the field, although yeah his range is a bit limited. Hes certainly been better than anyone else weve had at 2nd since Asdrubal moved to 2nd.
His OBP isnt very good, but he is coming up with timely hits and driving in runs. Currently 2nd on the team with 21 RBI. If he continues to be respectable in the field and come up with timely hits I have no problem with him sticking around, especially when you factor in his leadership and “intangible” type stuff. The kids at Columbus can wait awhile longer.
I dont think he should be hitting behind Hafner though. Maybe move him down to 7th or 8th in the order. I think Travis would be getting more pitches to hit if he had Santana behind him instead of Cabrera.
* I meant to say, “since Asdrubal moved to SS”
I love the numbers side of things…I love the fact that everyone on this team loves Orlando and everywhere that he goes they win.
I was wrong about this signing…we have no idea or no way to put into numbers the little things that he has done that have helped Asdrubal and other players.
The problem is that at the end of the day it matters nothing what we think (even though as fans we want to believe it does) the fact is that these guys think that they can win and win this season. Enjoy the ride and who cares what his OBP is…if he comes up in the bottom of the 9th in Game 7 in October you can plan the parade route.
i’m very happy with OC. however i would much prefer brantley batting 6th… i think he would provide better air cover for pronk.*
*although the ‘numbers’ dont bear this out. pronk has a 10.4 BB% which is below is career average of 12%. so this is just gut talking.
Orlando Cabrera’s really awesome 2011 line:
.279/.301/.368
Orlando Cabrera’s 2011 line with runners in scoring position:
.237/.225/.289
Yes, yes, I will admit, it takes some mad skill to have an OBP lower than your AVG.
Pretty awesome “timely hitting” though, eh?
Great piece.
@6 – Nice. Yet another example of how reality does not always correspond with our perception of it.
I wrote a longer reply, but lost it. In short, Crowe may be right about intangibles, but all I can evaluate are the statistics so that’s what I go with. And there OCab is severely lacking there. Can’t he provide those Ecksteins from the bench as a sub?
Kipnis time.
Trevoe Crowe also thinks Russ Branyan shouldn’t be judged based on his “number” of “strikeouts.”
That was some Canuck game last night eh?
Last week the argument was made for Carlos Santana that his “batting average doesnt matter because hes driving in runs”.
Cabrera has more RBI’s than Santana. Just saying.
Cabrera, yeah hes a mediocre hitter at best. Nobody argues that.
But, he IS second on the team with 21 RBI’s, thats what I mean by “timely” hits. When he does get hits, they are usually productive ones.
His OBP sucks and yeah he should be hitting lower in the lineup. But every winning team has “intangible” guys like Cabrera, who contribute a lot of positive things to the team that dont show up in the box score.
But everyone has made up their mind that Kipnis and/or Phelps is the next Robbie Alomar, so therefore Cabrera becomes the enemy.
As long as we are winning I have no problem with him sticking around. If July rolls around and we arent in the race anymore, then by all means bring up the kids and lets see what they can do. But I wouldnt rock the boat too much with this team in first place.
Two words that, for me, suppress any urge to criticize OCab:
“Luis” and “Valbuena”
RBIs is not a good statistic to use for measuring a players ability.
“But the real problem with RBI’s is the second question; they measure a lot of things which are not the player’s own contribution. You cannot drive in runners who are not on base (except with home runs), but your own batting doesn’t put them there; if you bat behind good players, you will get a lot of chances. In fact, the league leaders in RBI are much more likely to be the players who batted with the most teammates on base
or in scoring position (not the batter’s contribution) than those who hit the best with runners on base or in scoring position. Thus RBI are a better measure of who had the most chances to drive in runners than of who was the best at driving in runners.”
This is EXACTLY the situation with Orlando. He leads the team in total # of base runners while he’s at the plate (106 to Choo’s 102).
http://baseball1.com/baseball-archive/sabermetrics/sabermetric-manifesto/
Free Cord Phelps!
If you played the game you love guys like Orlando Cabrera and Casey Blake (ducks)
If you are a fan and love numbers you can’t stand that I just mentioned both of those names.
Orlando Cabrera is to 2011 as to what Trot Nixon was to 2007.
Good ol’ Nixon had the 2007 team relaxing, having fun and winning. He brought the “rally pie” to the clubhouse and had the guys loose.
O-Cab plays this role to the 2011 squad.
If all you do is analyze numbers you will never understand the behaviors needed to achieve those numbers.
O-Cab understands the behaviors needed for a TEAM to achieve numbers; he learned them on a Boston team that are all wearing rings because of it.
and if you’ll excuse me i now need to take a shower after mentioning two sawx players and giving props to a team from Boston.
@13 – I’m a stat guy and I love Casey Blake. Not sure why you’d think stat guys wouldn’t. He actually does pretty well in the advanced stats (BR has him with a 6.1 WAR in 2009!), especially for a guy who can play any position in a pinch.
@14 – I agree, but if that’s the case, why isn’t he a coach or a platoon/bench guy? While I agree that his intangible help this club, I don’t think they negate the fact that he doesn’t contribute much on the field.
@ NJ
don’t get me wrong…put him on the bench or in a platoon situation; i’m all good with it.
just don’t cut him.
Trevor is 100% correct. Not nearly enough of you understand that baseball is a huge percentage more mental than physical, and having guys that build chemistry and confidence in an organization will give you many more runs scored than say, OC’s UZR takes away… you just can’t put it on a scoresheet.
O-Cab’s intangibles are so well known and respected by baseball folks that its a miracle the Tribe was able to out bid the other 31 teams for his services.
Honestly, this is such a joke. Orlando Cabrera has never ever been known for his “clubhouse presence”.
I remember when his teammates got pissed at him because he called up to the score keeper in the middle of the game because they had ruled what he thought should have been a hit of his an error. Talk about selfish.
Cabrera has found himself on contending teams often over the last few years, and yet for some reason, even with all of his “clubhouse presence” and other various amazing intangibles, no team wanted to keep him around for more than a year.
Remember last year, when he took part in the major breakout season for the Reds? Ya… they saw him for a whole year and didn’t even offer him a contract this off-season. They thought Paul Janish would be an upgrade… enough said.
Let’s see how his “behavior” is if he gets put in a utility role.
There are plenty of legitimately awesome reasons why the Tribe has gotten off to such an unexpected great start. Let’s not inaccurately place that praise on Orlando.
And if I have to read one more post about how his RBI total justifies his super-dee-duper utterly amazing clutch ability, I might chuck my computer.
So anyway, Orlando Cabrera is Clutch City.
Before this season, I was thinking about how if I had to watch one more error at second base by Jason Donald, Jayson Nix, or Luis Valbuena, I might chuck my television set. And/or Jacobs’ Field if I was at the game at the time.
Apparently Tommy doesn’t know Orlando Cabrera’s POWA HOWSE hitting value because Eric Wedge was too scurred of letting his RHP pitch to right-handed batting Cabrera that he let him pitch to the .333 hitting, left-handed Pronk instead.
In other news, a local man is arrested at the Cuyahoga County Public Library after destroying a computer and other property. Police say he was enraged about Orlando Cabrera’s on base percentage.
lul.
You’re absolutely correct Jon – you don’t know anything. But at least you admitted it. Stick to the basement; leave the ballfield to real athletes.