On Worrying and Not Worrying About the Indians
Mike Brown Will Hopefully Apply Lessons Learned
May 26, 2011While We’re Waiting… Actaball, Mike Brown’s Job and Nick Gilbert
May 27, 2011
It’s odd to be in first place with the best run differential in baseball.
Don’t get me wrong: I love it. It’s great to have entered the season with low expectations and have the team perform well beyond them. It’s great to watch—slowly, at times—the national sportswriters come around and recognize that the team is better than they thought. It’s great to write pieces about the Indians that get people riled up and interested again. It’s been a long three years, and all of this feels new and exciting.
But one of the problems I’ve noticed of late is that every time the Indians lose a game or two, I start waiting for the other shoe to drop. I fear that maybe this is the beginning of the end of the magic of the first two months. I felt it last week when we were swept in the two game set in Chicago. What if, I told myself, we lose five in a row? What if we lose ten? What if this is it, and all my hopes are about to be dashed? All this after having survived the rapture? What a bummer.
Of course, after dropping two straight to the White Sox, we rattled off four wins in a row. Then we lost two to those other Sox, and I had the same feelings all over again: Boston exposed us as a flawed team. We were playing over our heads. It’s ending.
And there really are some reasons to worry that this team is going to come back to earth. After all, they sort of have to. I plugged their Pythagorean record into a calculator the other day and it spit back a projection of 106 wins, which is patently ridiculous. The team, almost by the sheer intractability of history, is really unlikely to keep up the pace they set early in the year. Which is probably why I keep waiting for a punch to the gut.
So today, let’s play the sky-is-falling game, along with a little counterpoint of rationality to try to get me sane again. Here are the reasons to worry about the Indians, followed by my brief rebuttals.
1. The Indians aren’t as good as they showed early in the season. That was fluky and impossible to sustain. They will regress.
To me, this is more or less true. The Indians probably aren’t as good as they appeared, but actually, that’s ok. I wrote several weeks ago about how, whether fluky or not, the Indians’ early season wins still count. Did you know that if we play .500 ball for the rest of the season, we’d win 88 games. I think we can convince even some of the more strident doubters out there that this could be a .500 team for the rest of the year, and 88 wins in the AL central might still get us a playoff berth. At the very least, we’d be in a division race in September, which is pretty freaking awesome, considering our the last few purgatorial years.
2. The pitching is smoke and mirrors. It is, for all intents and purposes, the same staff as last season, which was fairly awful.
Again, this isn’t unreasonable. If you think of our five starting pitchers, they’re really the same guys who pitched us to 93 losses last season. But there are two reasons to think this year is different. First, they really are pitching better. For example, last season our pitching staff had the highest walk-rate in the AL; this season it’s the second best. That’s a real improvement to me. Second, we are a demonstrably better defensive team this season, which can only help the pitching staff. Will both facets stay as strong as they’ve been? Obviously, we don’t know. But the gains look to be both significant, and that’s not something to disregard as entirely unsustainable.
3. Asdrubal Cabrera and Michael Brantley and Travis Buck are not good enough to carry this team offensively.
True. Good thing we have the player with the second highest WAR in baseball in 2010 and a catcher who can only get better; Santana and Choo should be able to pick up some of the inevitable slack. Not to mention the two former All-Stars who should be healthy for the stretch run. And while we’re on the subject, Matt LaPorta’s OPS is above .800. Finally. I don’t worry about our offense, not one bit. Some people think I’m blind for feeling this way. But I’ve been pretty certain for two years that these guys can hit. Two losses to Josh Beckett and Jon Lester ain’t going to change my mind.
4. This is, after all, Cleveland. Murphy’s Law, etc.
I don’t believe in this nonsense. If we lose a game, it’s not part of a myth or a narrative or a curse or a national story. It really isn’t. We’re going to win some games this season. We’re going to lose some games this season. And guess what? It’s going to be fine. Scratch that: it’s going to be more than fine. It’s going to be fun. Every last game. And that’s enough for me. I can hardly wait.
25 Comments
Agree with all points. Even injuries to some key players have not unraveled this team. The longest losing streak for the Tribe has been 3 games and it only happened once… that’s impressive. The Tribe also has not been swept in a 3-game or more set. Also impressive.
Nice write up. I do think the offense is headed for some struggles though. I’ve kept strident faith up until this point that Santana is going to turn it around and really start putting up some offensive numbers. While he’s been good in the walk department, he looks really unsettled at the plate. That is really the best way for me to describe it, he looks like he’s pressing. Mind you, ask anyone who knows me and they’ll tell you about my undying love for Carlos Santana.
Also, I think these guys are starting to feel at least a little bit of pressure. They are a young team still and the over all fundamentals have evaded them on occasion. I still think they have one of those 5-7 game losing streaks in them, what will really be telling is how they come out of it.
Despite the divisional lead I still envision this team walking a tightrope.
That was a great article, Jon. You spoke what many of us have been thinking, fearing, and realizing so far this season. Nobody can predict how the Inidans will do the rest of the way, but nobody can take away the wins we have to date either.
I just keep reminding myself that no matter how it plays out (losses here or there, or a few sustained streaks), this time will lose, at a minimum, 65-70 games. And I’m not sure about you, but I’d slug the first person that complains about a 70-loss season.
When this team does the things it’s supposed to (good pitching, defense, and timely hitting), it will win more than it loses. When it doesn’t (like in the Red Sox series), it won’t. They just need to focus on doing what they do, and let the pieces fall where they may.
While I am enjoying this, there is a part of me that thinks that this is showing us what our future holds. These guys at the MLB level are experiencing success, and then we plug in the talented up-and-comers we have in the minors (White [I know, I know, he was here already], Pomeranz, Kipnis, Chisenhall, etc.) I think we have the makings of a sustained run, and I am really looking forward to it.
You should definitely have some concerns about our offense. Our middle of the order is a mess and our bottom 3 in the order is basically a roulette crapshoot every game. We can’t rely on “timely hitting” to get out of tricky situations like the past couple days, and we need one or two consistent hitters in the lineup.
I was at the game Sunday and while the national attention was on Droob’s five hits, I came away from it thinking “I am worried about his two errors.”
Being a Cleveland fan has warped my enjoyment of sports.
man, the first part of this article are EXACTLY how the voices in my head sound.
Excited!
No, prepare yourself for the worst. (imagine this as spoke by Ben Stein)
They’re STILL looking great!
Bound to fall sometime. Higher they go the farther they fall.
Even ESPN is caving, admitting they MIGHT be ACTUALLY good!
Kiss of death. Next they’ll be on the cover of Sports Illustrated.
I love Cabrera. I loved Omar, and now I have a new #13 to gush over.
Yanks/Red Sox/Phils will snatch him up in a year.
Reversing the curse!
No way. This is Cleveland, inevitable failure calls.
I don’t believe in curses!
Yes, you do!
No, I don’t.
Yes, you do!
I want a sandwich.
Me too.
Looking at the schedule, this might actually be the best time for the Indians to go into a little funk as a team, if they have to do it at some point. They only have two series (6 games) against divisional opponents between now and the All-Star break in July – 3 at home vs. the Twins and 3 in Detroit.
I liken it to the Browns last year. It was great that they beat the Saints and Patriots in back-to-back weeks, but it doesn’t mean anything if they can’t beat Pittsburgh and Baltimore. The Indians might struggle against the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Rangers, and Jays, but they aren’t in our division. If they can take care of business against divisional foes, they will win the division. And from there… well, anything can happen in the playoffs.
not worried about our defense (even with Choo’s recent adventures and Asdrubel’s UZR seemingly dropping by the day)
not worried about our bullpen
not worried about Masterson, Tomlin, or Carmona on the staff (well, mild concerns especially Tomlin, but overall I expect them to be good and steady at worst)
I would have been concerned about innings from White, but now just concerned about him not being rushed back and being able to get back in rhythm.
I am concerned about our 4th starter until White gets back and 5th starter period (Carrasco/Talbot/Gomez/etc.). But, not anymore so than most of the other AL contenders are.
I am concerned about our lack of production out of the middle of our order (Choo/Santana need to start getting RBIs at some point. I am onboard the Sizemore in the 3-hole train).
I am not concerned about our overall lineup as it was expected to be the bedrock of our team this year and current results haven’t changed that (though they have shifted where the strengths are).
I am a little concerned about trusting Phelps and Chis to be big contributors for a contending team at 2B and 3B especially because defense is not considered a strength from either (and has been a stabilizing factor).
I am not concerned about the Twins.
I am not concerned about the Royals catching us (too much youth, too many struggles so far).
I am not concerned about the White Sox catching us (hitting has been terrible, no bullpen to fall back on, and the starting pitching has not been as good as believed).
I am somewhat concerned about the Tigers catching us (they have the hitters and pitchers, they just haven’t quite put it all together yet).
There have been plenty of “turning points” this year that many people will tell you solidified this team as a real contender; the 1 run win on a suicide squeeze from A-Cab, the late inning magic being back at the Jake, etc. Nope! Wrong!
After losing two in a row to the White Sox last week being faced with a 3 game stretch against the Reds (one of the top MLB teams) I would have went all in on them dropping at least two games to the them…..LAST YEAR. NOT THIS YEAR!
This was the nail in the coffin for me as the “this team is as good as advertised”.
Sigh…..#4 scares me the most.
agree with all of this, Jon. Also appreciate an analysis not reliant on stats and stats alone.
I really don’t understand criticism #1. It says, in effect, “The Indians won’t win 110+ games this year.” Okay… great. Good analysis. None of us actually thought that, but way to point out the bleeding obvious.
Good stuff Jon. Losing Alex White was a real kick in the groin. That kid looks like the real deal. Watching Talbot pitch yesterday really drove the loss of White home. I’m anxious to see how Talbot does in his next start or two.
My concern with the offense is that while Phelps, Kipnis and Chiz are all great with the bat, if they are brought up to boost the offense the defense may suffer. I’ve really seen enough of Austin Kearns in the lineup. I worry that Grady and Hafner will never stay healthy. That being said, looking at the division, looking at the other 4 starters and the solid bullpen if they can get healthy and get Choo and Santana hitting it’s going to be a fun summer.
Chisenhall would be a step down from Hannahan defensively. That’s no doubt. The question then is would his value at the plate offset that? That depends on how Hannahan is doing with the bat (he’s been perfectly averageso far: 100 OPS+) and how bad/average/good C-hall’s defense is. So Hannahna may very well be the better choice. I’d still like to see Chisenhall up against ML pitching.
I can’t see Kipnis being worse than Cabrera at second. OCab’s range is clearly limited and he hasn’t been lights out with the balls he gets to. If memory serves me, he cost us two runs (and nearly a game) in that Reds series. He doesn’t give us much at the plate.
@NJ: except for 100% clutchification.
Man, this is fun, I get to make up a new word practically every other day!
Also @NJ: if you’re thinking of the chuck into left field over the head of A-Cab on what should have been an inning-ending double play, that stone-headed move was brought to you by the illustrious Matt LaPorta.
I’ve seen someone who suggests that about 1/3 of games, you will win, 1/3 of games you will lose, and there’s the 1/3 of the games in the middle.
Games where you go down 7-0 in the first very quickly join that “lost” third. They happen. The only time to really complain is when you lose one from the indeterminate third.
And we’ve been winning the poop out of those.
They’re a good team! I can see them getting in the post season this year but I don’t think they’ll last long.
“I’ve seen someone who suggests that about 1/3 of games, you will win, 1/3 of games you will lose, and there’s the 1/3 of the games in the middle.”
Me too 🙂 The Indianapolis of Baseball: An Offseason Digression
Relax, everybody. We’re not going to win the World Series. We all know that. So just sit back and enjoy the ride. Eventually we’ll be treated to some brand new devastating playoff loss that we can add to our lore and talk about for decades. It’ll be fun.
@23 – that sounds like a contest idea. guess in which horrific fashion this Indians season will end.
We would have to exclude the ones we already have nailed down recently though. Here’s one for each step in the playoffs.
A. Choking away a seemingly insurmountable division lead in very late September
B. Choking away a 2-0 bestof5 ALDS lead
C. Choking away a 3-1 ALCS lead
D. Choking away a 9th inning lead in game7 of the World Series
I am as big a Tribe fan as any of you. I really think we need a right-handed bat to stay in the race. Wonder if the Dolans are willing to pay the price to keep us in contention.
Most of our major-league ready players hit left-handed. We have a lot to offer in a trade so lets get it done!