While We’re Waiting… Shurmur Confident, Cavs Over-Matched and the Grinder Gets His Way
May 10, 2011Re-Sign or Release: Manny Harris
May 10, 2011
So most of this you’ll already know, but I’m going to talk a bit today about the start that Indians’ rotation has gotten off to. Not to completely ruin the surprise, but they’ve been pretty good.
The obvious questions, then, should be twofold: (1) how have they been so good and (2) is it the sort of thing that we can expect to continue?
First, let’s tackle the “how” part. The Indians have made 33 starts so far this year, and have pitched exactly 208 innings. That averages out to almost exactly 6 1/3 innings per start.
Is that good? I don’t know. Let’s check:
| Team | IP/S |
| White Sox | 6.6 |
| Athletics | 6.5 |
| Rays | 6.4 |
| Angels | 6.3 |
| Tigers | 6.3 |
| Indians | 6.3 |
| Mariners | 6.2 |
| Rangers | 6.1 |
| Yankees | 6.0 |
| Twins | 5.9 |
| Royals | 5.9 |
| Red Sox | 5.8 |
| Blue Jays | 5.6 |
| Orioles | 5.6 |
So yeah: it’s pretty good. But not great. After all, the White Sox are getting about one more out per game out of their starters than we are, as are the A’s and Rays.
Let’s compare the 2011 team to past iterations of the Indians using the innings-pitched-per-start stat.
| YEAR | IP/S |
| 2011 | 6.30 |
| 2010 | 5.86 |
| 2009 | 5.65 |
| 2008 | 6.12 |
| 2007 | 6.31 |
The 2011 starting rotation is currently on pace to throw about 1,020 innings—or almost exactly as much as the 2007 Indians did. Before we get too carried away, we should note a couple of things: (1) it’s particularly early to be extrapolating like this; and (2) only about two staffs per season pitch over a thousand innings—so there’s a good possibility that quite a few teams will see some drop off from their starters in the coming months.
Still, I bring up innings pitched for a couple reasons. For one thing, the more outs the starters get, the fewer outs the bullpen needs to record—which is generally a good thing since the bullpen is largely a group of failed starters. Your best pitchers are in your rotation, so if possible, you’d like them to get as many outs as possible.
The second reason is related, though slightly different: the more innings the starters eat now, the more rested our bullpen will be for the rest of the season. Generally, overworked bullpens become less effective as the season goes on; we’ll look into demonstrating this another time, but it should be fairly evident.
So at least part of the reason the rotation has been so good has been their durability. But if we only give them credit for the quantity of innings they’ve pitched, we’d be missing the exceptional quality of those innings.
Case in point: the White Sox’ starters, as has been noted, have averaged more outs per game than the Indians. Does that make them better? Well, not really—at least not by much.
| Team | IP | K/9 | BB/9 | ERA | FIP | WAR | IP/S |
| Indians | 208.0 | 6.01 | 2.64 | 3.29 | 3.66 | 3.3 | 6.30 |
| White Sox | 230.0 | 6.42 | 2.66 | 3.87 | 3.66 | 4.1 | 6.57 |
In 22 more innings (and two more starts), the White Sox have sustained a slightly higher K-rate and BB-rate than the Indians. Both of these even out to suggest that their starters have pitched exactly as well as the Indians’ (they have identical FIPs).
On the one hand, this may insult you. You might be thinking that there’s no way I should be comparing these two staffs. After all, the Indians starters have a 15-6 record while their Southside counterparts are a measly 10-17. But I’m sure you’re savvy enough to realize that W-L records for pitchers are not all that illustrative, especially when discussing sample sizes this small.
But ignoring that for a moment, if I told you that coming into the season that no rotation in the AL central would be performing better than the Indians after six weeks, I have to think you’d have taken it, right? Well, back to the FIP charts:
| Team | ERA | FIP |
| Indians | 3.29 | 3.66 |
| White Sox | 3.87 | 3.66 |
| Tigers | 3.85 | 3.87 |
| Royals | 4.75 | 4.71 |
| Twins | 4.83 | 4.72 |
And that’s the thing. Sure, we have the best ERA in the division by quite a bit right now; that’s excellent news. But when you strip out all the good luck we’ve had—stranding runners and abnormally low batting average on balls in play—we’re still pitching just as good as any team in the division. And we’re doing it with the same old pitching statistics I always harp on: strikeouts, walks, and homeruns.
Here is the division’s starters ranked by K/BB ratio, a fairly good judge of how well a team is pitching (anything above 2.00 is above average; above 2.50 is very good):
| Team | K/BB |
| White Sox | 2.41 |
| Indians | 2.28 |
| Tigers | 2.24 |
| Royals | 1.85 |
| Twins | 1.62 |
Second best in the division. For reference, 2010 the rotation’s K/BB ratio was 1.62—the worst in the AL by a considerable margin.
And here is the HR-rates*:
| Team | HR/9 |
| Indians | 0.74 |
| White Sox | 0.82 |
| Tigers | 0.93 |
| Twins | 1.23 |
| Royals | 1.30 |
Best in the division and fourth best in the AL.
*I’m using HR/9 instead of HR/FB because I think the Indians’ staff effectively limits flyballs with their sinker-heavy repertoire. If you’re more of a fan of HR/FB, here are the numbers:
| Team | HR/FB |
| White Sox | 8.10% |
| Indians | 8.20% |
| Tigers | 9.40% |
| Twins | 10.70% |
| Royals | 12.00% |
So while the Indians’ rotation has been plenty lucky this Spring, they’ve also been demonstrably good and certainly better than they were a year ago. As I said, most of this you already know.
But the youth of the staff suggests, to me at least, that these guys are learning to pitch more effectively than they have in the past, and the adjustments are finally starting to pay off. This staff isn’t just getting lucky. The skills they’ve demonstrated over the first six weeks are just that: skills. And skills are generally a lot more repeatable than luck. So as tentatively as I might say this, I’m still gonna say it: we should expect this staff to continue to pitch well.
Whether it’s a sagacious coaching staff, a new work ethic, or plain old maturation, it’s good to see this group learning how to pitch in a way that might be sustainable. We’re going to need it.
—
(AP Photo/Mark Duncan)
20 Comments
the first part of this post reads like a British comedy (in it’s style). I read the rest of it in a John Cleese voice in my head. Brilliant!
What does the FIP represent again?
and now back to the serious matter at hand.
Jon, how much of the above is due to our serious increase in defensive efficiency this season? in other words, it seems obvious that our pitching coach is focusing on increasing GB% in our staff. but, it seems like it is actually ‘working’ this year because of the defense behind it.
that is what I get from watching this team, do the numbers back that up? or is that going to be apart of your defensive evaluation in a future post?
thanks, great read as usual.
@Titus
FIP (Link)
Fielding Independent Pitching, a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number. FIP helps you understand how well a pitcher pitched, regardless of how well his fielders fielded. FIP was invented by Tangotiger.
Here’s the link I use for all the baseball terminology:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/statpages/glossary/
Cool, thanks @mgbode.
I take issue with this statement: “the bullpen is largely a group of failed starters.”
A very large generalization to players, some of which have never been starters. Many are either rocket arms (that can only throw about 50 pitches tops) or situation pitchers (just like pinch hitters) who specialize with certain things but are not good for starting roles as they are either (1) older or (2) inexperienced in it, as it was never their role.
That doesn’t mean they failed it anything, it just means they haven’t considered it a viable option given their talents. If I know I can get 3 outs from someone, 25 solid pitches, but then batters figure him out, well then that’s terrific. He’s my SU or my CL for sure. This does not make him a failure.
alternatively, you could just use this: indians lead MLB in quality starts* with 25. tied with phillies.
*game in which the pitcher completes at least six innings and permits no more than three earned runs.
(interesting sidenote, phillies starters = $50MM, indians = $8.5MM)
Different, less-statistical perspective {NOT that there’s anything wrong with that, other than their overuse tending to suck the soul and intangibles out of baseball discussions}:
They seem to be riding a momentum of great pitching that started with game 3. Every starter with MLB experience pitching as good or better than previous performances, and there is a group success feel to this. Fausto, as mentally strong as he looked in ’07, just seems less twitchy when not counted on as the ace. Interesting that the least experienced guys – Tomlin, Gomez, White – all have a pretty relaxed demeanor on the mound against some good teams, and that points to Belcher doing something right. But if this is young guys feeding off each other it can turn south just as quickly.
Bullpen seems to be pitching closer to track records. Sipp has been very good in spots before, as had Durbin and both Perez’s. On offense, the production of this lineup without Choo or Santana heating up still seems smoke-and-mirrors to me but guys do approach at-bats differently when they know that their bullpen can hold a lead. There’s no stat to back that up but, like clutch hitters, it’s real. Attribute this to Acta The Anti-Grinder. Keep coming back to that Cabrera suicide squeeze, with that eff the risk and win the game attitude. That can be contagious.
Ok, now back to the stats.
Jim, obviously the Phillies starters must be better or they wouldn’t have paid them so much!
It’s not like you can sign one of the all-time great pitchers for $1 and an autographed baseball these days, like #19 on your avatar there.
Oh wait .. we do it the smart way and they do it the Yanks way.
So yeah, who else is completely totally hyped up here? The Tribe is completely phenomenal compared to last year.
And @6, the generalization isn’t a weak one because a great deal of these guys are starters who didn’t make it as starters. A lot of that stuff shakes out in the minor leagues, anyway. But yes, there are guys who are slated relievers. It’s just not a common combination of traits that someone has the power to throw a blistering 98 mph fastball and just doesn’t have the energy to do it more than 20 times, but the other guy can do it 100 times no problem.
It does happen, for sure, though. I don’t think Jon meant any offense to the Mariano Riveras of the world. 😉
I like the way our rotation is coming together. I really hope Alex White keeps it up, I think he will. I love the way this kid has come in and gone right after these big league hitters. Hes not afraid to make a mistake, hes not afraid to get hit hard once in awhile. Unlike Carrasco, White doesnt nibble, he throws his pitches for strikes and trusts in his stuff to get people out. Hes given up a few homers here and there, but Id rather see a young pitcher give up a couple homers in a game than 10 base hits.
Hopefully Talbot gets healthy and rounds out this rotation. Carmona, Tomlin, Masterson, White and Talbot. Pretty nice rotation. I dont know what it is, but I cant say that I have a great deal of faith in Carrasco at this time. But we shall see.
If things dont work out with Talbot though, then the last piece of our rotation is still in AAA. Whether its David Huff getting one more shot, or a younger guy like Zach McAllister who is currently 6-0 at Columbus. We’ll see.
Our staters are tied for third in lowest fly ball% (28.7%) and third for highest ground ball% (51.5%).
Tim Belcher deserves a huge round of applause. To have a young staff that never seems overwhelmed, that speaks to coaching.
@believelander-
Not sure if you were implying this, but Rivera IS in fact a failed starter.
mgbode – would it have killed you to link to Jon’s FIP primer? 🙂
https://waitingfornextyear.com/2010/02/sabr-toothed-triber-you-down-with-fip-and-babip/
GREAT post, thank you. Re: Bullpen arms are failed starters… it’s only somewhat true. Yes, almost everyone starts as a starter, but often they’re moved to the bullpen because of endurance issues and an ability to throw multiple pitches to keep people off balance rather than “stuff”. It’s why bullpen arms typically throw a bit harder and have a lower selection.
@Scott – it’s not my fault Jon is so long-winded in his explanations 🙂
seriously though, that link just is easier to go through and has pretty much every term in one spot. if WFNY creates such a page, I promise to update my links 🙂
to all, add Eric Karabell to the list of “Tribe Haters”
he apparently doesn’t think much of this Tribe team and is willing to buy the ‘under’ on them finishing .500 (that means worse than 59-70 the rest of the way)
http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/38373/fantasy-eric-karabell
James (Cleveland)
Are the Indians for real or are they a fluke?
Eric Karabell (3:58 PM)
I’ll take the under on the Tribe winning half their games this season.
I’m not much for giving inspirational addresses, but I’d just like to point out that every newspaper in the country has picked us to finish last. The local press seems to think that we’d save everyone the time and trouble if we just went out and shot ourselves. Me, I’m for wasting sportswriters’ time.
Thank you @NJ
I quietly LOL at Eric Karabell for A) His picture and B) the bet I’m going pwn him on on the over/under for the Tribe. I’d be surprised if the Tribe didn’t win at -least- 85 games.
@12: lol I accidentally rest my case.