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March 25, 2011WFNY Podcast: Talking Draft (Cavs and Browns), Plus Plenty of Tribe
March 25, 2011
We are just a week away from Opening Day here in Cleveland and I cannot wait for another season of Tribe baseball. (I know, I sound insane, but I love the red, white, and blue). As I said yesterday, if the Indians are going to compete and hang around near the top of the AL Central, everything is going to have to fall into place. Pitching, defense, staying healthy, etc.
I know when they break camp, the roster will be 25-men deep, but without significant contributions from three players in particular, the Indians won’t have a chance to take that next step forward.
I will spare you the “Travis Hafner has to be the Pronk of old” bit because we all know that guy isn’t walking through the door. It’s too obvious to play the “healthy Grady Sizemore” card as well. I’m focused on the young players who’s time has come.
Matt Laporta. When the Indians traded CC Sabathia during the summer of 2008, the guy everyone talked about was LaPorta. He was a top -10 prospect in the game, and the young right-handed power bat the Tribe so desperately coveted and needed. He hit at every level and looked like a guy that would be in the middle of the Tribe order for years to come.
Here we are now in 2011 and LaPorta has really only shown that he can rake at the minor league level. Yes, he struggled with injuries last year, but the truth of the matter is we are no longer in prospect territory here. LaPorta is now 26 years old and an everyday player in the majors. The time for him is now to prove his worth. The .221/12 HR/41 RBI numbers will not cut it.
With so many left-handed bats dominating the lineup – Michael Brantley, Shin-Soo Choo, Travis Hafner, Grady Sizemore – along with switch hitters Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana, LaPorta’s true right-handed presence is much needed to balance things out. He is healthy now and must take that next step in his career.
Though he has had a rough Spring (.163 in 49 ABs), he will be given a long leash at First base. The Indians really have no choice.
Justin Masterson. Last season I was on record as saying J Mast should be in the bullpen. Then in August and September, he righted the ship and finished strong. Over his last 12 starts, Masterson allowed just 18 earned runs in 55.2 innings pitched. His strikeout to walk ratio, which was 140 to 73 for the season, finished 18 to 2 in September over 20 innings of work.
Those were the kind of numbers the Indians need to see in 2011 if they are going to contend. If the guy who went 10 starts without winning a game while carrying a 5.87 ERA shows up again, the Indians are in trouble and will have essentially nothing immediate to show for Victor Martinez.
Masterson has had an up and down spring, but seems to have found himself in his last two starts. Hopefully the tinkering that Pitching coach Tim Belcher has done with him to close last season continue into this one. The Tribe MUST have a quality second option behind Fausto Carmona. The 26 year old Masterson has the ability, he just needs to put it all together.
Carlos Carrasco. Noticing a pattern here? Carrasco is another guy who came over in one of the three fire-sale trades. The biggest question mark on this club is the rotation. Like Masterson, Carrasco is a guy that has to have real success this season or the Indians could be in real trouble. He is still just 23 years old, but his time is now. Like LaPorta, he has spent the last two seasons in AAA and has done all he can do.
During his callup at the end of 2009, Carrasco was clearly not ready for the bigs. But last year, he worked on his craft in Columbus and when September 1st came, he was called up and made seven starts. This time around, he showed more maturity and didn’t just rely on his mid-90’s fastball. In each start, he went at least six innings, and posted an ERA of 3.83.
In a staff full of ground-ball pitchers, Carrasco can be a strikeout guy. Its of the utmost importance that he keeps the ball down. As we have seen in the last two Spring starts, Carrasco is susceptible to the long ball. He’s allowed six homers in 16.2 innings this spring. That has to change.
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In a perfect world, LaPorta finds himself and hits 25 homers and drives in 85 runs; Masterson wins 15-17 games and strikes out 180; and Carrasco wins 13-15 with an ERA under four.
I know, sounds like a pipe dream, but hope springs eternal.
11 Comments
the 3 players I guessed before reading your post:
Carrasco – needs to be our 2nd ace (you explained him in detail already)
Brantley – if he can get his OBP up and lockdown CF and keep Sizemore in LF to preserve his knees, then that will be a huge boon to our defense and offense.
Sizemore – the injury wildcard. if he can play at 75% of his peak, then we have the starts to a decent offense with Cabrera/Sizemore/Choo in the heart of the order.
Masterson and LaPorta were good choices as well. The Fury would have been a good one too. Our ‘middle relief’ as a whole is another one. Santana recovering from injury. Our holes at 3B and 2B getting filled by ‘name your player’.
That said, I’m with you. Can’t wait for the season to start.
My three would be LaPorta, Santana and any one of the starters not named Carmona.
Santana has the ability to be a difference maker for this team. Plus, he can get fans to the park. Something that hasn’t really happened here for a few years.
as for what you said you were hoping for, they are good scenarios, but i’m not sure they reach ‘pipe dream’ status.
LaPorta = 25HRs and 85 RBI
2009 198PA 7HR 21RBI
2010 425PA 12HR 41RBI
if he gets 600PA, then at last years pace he’s already at 17HR. If he progresses at all (which he would have to do to get 600PA), then 25HR is not all that lofty. By the same token, he’d be at 58RBI, so that 85 number is more of a reach. He’d have to lockdown the #5 spot in the order and Sizemore&Choo would have to set him up.
Masterson strikes out 180 (leave wins out of it as those are more arbitrary). In his 3yr partial MLB career, he is a .82SO/Inning guy. So, to get to 180SO at those numbers he’d have to pitch 220 innings, which isn’t out of the realm of possibility for him.
Carrasco under4 ERA. well, he had a 3.83ERA last year. sure, it was only 44innings, but you can’t say it’s a completely pipe dream to hope he can extrapolate it.
@TD & mgbode – can I have some of what you are smoking? Seriously, I enjoy the positive outlook. Let’s also hope Lonnie improves in his time at AAA and is here by the 4th of July!
I think we need big seasons from brantley, j-mast, and carrasco. Our rotation needs to take a big step forward and we need brantley to step up into our leadoff hitter.
I think that the Indians 3 keys are Santana, Carrasco and Laporta. Santana us supposed to be our star and give us some serious pop in the middle of the lineup. We need another big bat besides Choo to drive in runs. He can also bring people out to the ballpark. I agree with your reasoning for Carrasco and Laporta. They will be huge to our future development.
I was just checking out the ’07 roster. That team won 96 games with a lot of players playing adequately and then a handful, say eight, putting up above average years. Looking at that makes me think that we can be competitive in ’11 if just a few guys step up. Two or three contributors can make a huge difference for this team.
For me, Laporta and Santana are key. Our offense was horrible last year (outside of Choo). Hafner posted the 2nd highest OPS+ and that says a lot. Two solid bats would open up things a lot.
Next to that, it’s Carasco/Masterson/Talbot. One of those guys has to step up and become a solid #2 who can win us games with his arm rather than just keep us in it.
LaPorta 25 homeruns? Can’t see it. The offense should be better but then again could it be worse then a year ago? We’ll see about pitching but I just can’t see them hanging atop the division.
I think if both Carasco and Masterson get over 10 wins that would be a good year. It means .500 ball.
Chris “Kenny Powers” Perez is one of my main excitement points. i expect a 40 saves year from him and dont think thats unrealistic…. i think brantley is a big part of our lineup should lead off all year… could be an allstar down the road in the next few seasons.
Yerf,
Brantley is huge. The bad RBI numbers for all the members of the Tribe was mainly due to having nobody set the table. With a “found himself” Brantley and a full season, 2009 version of Asdrubal Cabrera will add about 15-20 RBIs to everyone’s total.
There’s absolutely no reason that Santana and Choo can’t both go over 90 RBI, which would be a massive improvement.
I’ll say it over and over, man I wish Jhonny Peralta was still on the team.