The Cleveland Indians’ Leadership Vacuum
February 17, 2011Maybe We Should Mock Out Our Own Teams
February 17, 2011Last year we thought we’d introduce ourselves to Mike Holmgren by offering a report of each position group. The reports contained a ‘Roster Upgrade Advisory System’ not unlike that of Homeland Security. This year, even though the big show has been around for a year and has Tom Heckert in house, we thought we’d give the reports another shot. Previous reports: OL, DB, ST
Continuing Disclaimer: NFL teams looking to add pieces this offseason are in a bit of a quandry due to the pending labor issues that could halt free agency all together.
Evaluating 2010
Much like last year, I’m taking a look at the running backs. And, in re-reading my post from last year (that upgrade need was listed as: Guarded), it’s amazing to look at the 2010 season and realize how the landscape changed almost entirely. In some ways, it was very, very good. In some ways, it was alarming.
I know some of you will look at the year that Peyton Hillis had and say, “High need of upgrade? YOU’RE HIGH!” and in some ways, you’d be right. But, for me, in looking at the running backs for 2011, there is one giant x-factor: the testy knee ligaments of Montario Hardesty. Are you ready to count on them? I’m sure not. And don’t get me started on Mike Bell.
Starters – Peyton Hillis (HB), Lawrence Vickers (FB)
Reserves – Jerome Harrison, Mike Bell, Montario Hardesty (pre-season), James Davis, Thomas Clayton
Player | Carries | Yards | Avg. | TD | Catches | Yards | Avg. | TD |
Peyton Hillis | 270 | 1177 | 4.4 | 11 | 61 | 477 | 7.8 | 2 |
Jerome Harrison | 31 | 91 | 2.9 | 0 | 4 | 42 | 10.5 | 0 |
Mike Bell | 31 | 71 | 2.3 | 0 | 6 | 62 | 10.3 | 0 |
Lawrence Vickers | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
James Davis | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
Thomas Clayton | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 | — | — | — | — |
TOTALS* | 342 | 1359 | 4.0 | 11 | 75 | 596 | 7.9 | 2 |
*Does not factor in QB/WR runs, or Wildcat runs not by RBs
It’s pretty easy to say that Peyton Hillis was easily the best player on offense, not to mention the best running back. His 1654 total yards on 331 touches comes out to an almost even 5.00 yards per touch. That’s good, especially since he was often the go-to guy for the offensive unit. And to think… how many times did Brady Quinn touch the ball the season? AND A DRAFT PICK.
Sorry, just had to throw that in. I think it’s required by law when talking about Hillis.
But, by the end of the season, it was obvious that the workload—combined with his style of running—was taking its toll on Hillis. As good as he was, he probably could have been better had he had someone to truly back him up during the large chunk of the season when he was THE option on offense. When you look and see that Jerome Harrison was second both in carries and yards in the RB corps, well, that’s not good when you consider he was shipped out before the trading deadline and played in only four games (did not record stats in the first Baltimore game).
So, as good as Hillis was—and he was GOOD—the rest of the depth was that bad. And that goes back in part to Hardesty and his balky knee ligaments. While a need level of “High” might be a little, err, high, I can’t just say, “Well, they’re getting Hardesty back, so all they need is depth.” I just can’t get there, because I don’t think Hardesty is ever going to stay healthy enough to carry the ball 150 times a year. The four best rushing teams in the NFL in 2010 carried the ball—as a team—over 500 times.
Kansas City—the league’s leading rushing team—carried it 556 times. The Browns? 413. And that includes WRs running reverses, QBs scrambling, and Josh Cribbs. Hillis did his part, with 270 carries. But, can he be counted on to carry the ball that many times every year? It would be a bit risky to do so. So, the Browns need a guy or combination of guys who, in my estimation, can carry the ball 200 times. They need somebody (bodies?) who can come in and contribute in a meaningful way. It is a HIGH need, and I don’t think Hardesty alone is enough to fill it. And, if Hillis gets hurt, without another reliable guy or guys, the Browns are DONE on offense unless their WR corps magically gets way, way better very quickly.
Under Contract
With the loss of Harrison via trade and the release of James Davis and Thomas Clayton, the Browns had four running backs on the roster as of the end of the season, and two of them are free agents:
Peyton Hillis – 2011: $555,000; 2012: Free Agent
Montario Hardesty – 2011: $405,000; 2012: $490,000; 2013: $575,000; 2014: Free Agent
Mike Bell – 2011: Free Agent
Lawrence Vickers – 2011: Free Agent
So, not really a lot under contract. Peyton Hillis is probably due some kind of a raise, but with the CBA status as it is who knows if that will happen. Beyond that, top priority would be to resign Vickers, unless the team is deciding to move away from the true FB (something Pat Shurmur’s offense in St. Louis did as 2010 progressed). The Browns did also sign a RB named Quinn Porter and a FB named Tyler Clutts to future/reserve contracts back in January. Please, please, hold your applause.
So, realistically? Not much in the fold right now. Which means, IMHO…
Browns Roster Upgrade Advisory Level: High
I don’t want to say it, but it’s possible that Hillis won’t ever repeat his performance from this season in terms of overall impact. Guy’s got an injury history, and was worn down by season’s end.
But even if he does, the Browns will need additional bodies that can carry the ball more than 31 times in relief of Thunder in 2011. He has an injury history, and it would be foolish to stand pat and hope that Montario Hardesty will be healthy enough to be the depth. Unfortunately, there’s no real “home run” in the draft or free agency, such as the latter may be. But remember: the Hillis trade was in large part and afterthought, and look how that turned out.
Let’s first look in terms of the draft. Would it be wise to use the sixth-overall draft pick on a running back? NO. Not only does the team has other, more glaring needs, but there isn’t really a legit top-10 running back in this draft. And, in addition to that, running back tends to be one of the easier positions to get good value in the middle and late rounds, as the jump from college to the pros isn’t as severe for running back as for other positions. To that end, should the Browns go through the entire draft without making a legitimate running back selection? Absolutely not. And that’s regardless of what they may do in free agency.
Here is a list of some of the top running backs in the draft, based on a few sources I researched:
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Mark Ingram, Alabama
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Mikel LeShoure, Illinois
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Ryan Williams, Virginia Tech
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DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma
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Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State
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Jordan Todman, Connecticut
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Daniel Thomas, Kansas State
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Allen Bradford, USC
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Shane Vereen, California
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Derrick Locke, Kentucky
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Jacquizz Rodgers, Oregon State
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Noel Devine, West Virginia
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Da’Rel Scott, Maryland
Again, the Browns should not be picking Ingram #6, so that probably rules him out as he most likely won’t be there at 38. LeShoure probably won’t be, either, but you never know. Beyond those two, there really isn’t a lot of separation. My tendency would be to go for more of a third-down-back type of speed guy (since we already have two big backs) who can catch passes out of the backfield. To that end, I would not be opposed to someone like DeMarco Murray, who some have projected as a solid third down back who should be there in the third or fourth round.
If that’s even too high for you, don’t rule out a couple of guys like Shane Vereen from Cal, and Derrick Locke from Kentucky. They’re smaller, not-every-down-back kinds of players, but both can fly and will be on the board closer to the bottom of the draft. In terms of pure speed, a guy like Noel Devine will be there very late; he can fly, but he is TINY and may not be able to withstand the pounding of the NFL.
Notable free agent RBs, as of today (keeping in mind free agency may not happen at all this off-season without a CBA):
DeAngelo Williams (CAR), Arian Foster (HOU), Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG), Cedric Benson (CIN), Mike Tolbert (SD), Darren Sproles (SD), BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE), Ronnie Brown (MIA), Ricky Williams (MIA), Michael Bush (OAK), Pierre Thomas (NO), Leon Washington (SEA)
19 Comments
I’d just like to point out that the Browns’ talented punter, Hodges, was the 3rd leading rusher on the team until the final week of the season when Bell narrowly beat him out.
In my opinion, the high number of injuries in any given NFL season require you to carry at minimum 4 decent quality RBs on the roster. Just look at New Orleans. They were practically pulling guys off the street by the time the playoffs rolled around after losing so many RBs to injury. It’s a big part of why they lost to Seattle.
I know this is water that has long-since passed under the bridge and made it to the ocean, but why in the world did the Browns get rid of Harrison last season? What a mess…
I dont see high RBs are high but OL was guarded. I completely trust that Hardesty can get back and be a viable runner. Heckert doesnt trade up for a guy if he doesnt see something that says NFL on him. Anything higher then a 5th round pick on a RB is a waste. I bet we could get a UDFA that could produce enough for a 3rd RB.
lol, required by law indeed – great stuff DP.
Tyler Clutts…what an unfortunate but appropriate name for a fullback, particularly one who is a member of the Cleveland Browns
Letting Harrison go truly is a head scratcher… I guess he had a little bit of an attitude, by he was our only other legit threat at RB… the rest of the guys were either unproven or scrubs.
I think the Browns should get Noel Devine later in the draft. He is super fast to compliment Hillis.
Im actually bother more by James Davis. I thought he didnt really get a fair shot after his rookie season ended in injury. I get Harrison just was upset and Mangini wanted him gone, but Davis seemed to get decent production and was just dropped.
bobby, for the record, my misgivings about Hardesty are entirely related to his knees and his injuries. I’m in no way saying he can’t be a good player when healthy; I just find counting on him to be healthy far too risky a strategy for a team that has literally nothing behind he and Hillis,
Every RB in our new WCO has to be able to catch the ball because they are thrown to so often as either the designed play or the checkdown. Peyton certainly can do that, and very well. Would rank the available RBs with that in mind – maybe you did already. Because that quality trumps breakaway ability, think we can find plenty available in round 3 or 4.
I agree that the WR and DE position and even CB need an upgrade. But as far as RB goes we might be able to steal someone like DeAngelo Williams. The good thing about Peyton Hillis is other backs see he will be getting the brunt of the carries and taking more hits.
With that being said, Montario Hardesty was good and showed great speed and acceleration in his game where he got injured but everyone comes back differently from a knee injury. If he makes a full recovery he can be our speed back who comes out of the backfield or even line up Hillis and Hardesty in a 2RB set. Id like to have an insruance plan tho and all of those names up top Ronnie Browns and DeAngelo Williams make the best sense.( Id say Arian Foster but Houston will be keeping him).
I think we will be fine once we start building through the draft and keeping a single HC in. It takes time to build a winner..if the Browns keep trying to win overnight or stay in the mindsight that they can win overnight we will end up seeing people taking their talents elsewhere…
I love Ryan Williams and think he would make an excellent compliment to Hillis, but I also admit that I’m a huge Virginia Tech homer. For value, I might look at Jacquizz Rodgers. He’s a small guy, but he can catch the ball out of the backfield and has a good base. I like his ability to hit the “home run” as well. Saw this RB Lab thing with Mel Kiper and Todd McShay of ESPN and one of them was down on Demarco Murray because he’s got a really skinny lower half of his body. Honestly, I could absolutely see that being a problem in the NFL where every defender hits hard and can knock a guy off of his feet. When you look at successful small RBs in the NFL (Jones-Drew, Sproles, Michael Turner, etc)… they tend to have a thick lower half. In other words, if you’re a small running back, but you’ve got some serious back… count me interested.
@harv…
Shoot…catch the pass? Hillis can THROW the pass! Remember New Orleans!
IF they get a new CBA done, what do you think about going to FA for a known RB? Do you think many of them will be out searching, or will most try to re-sign with their current teams
You cannot rate half the positions as high and severe. This team needs to bolster the defense and right side of the O line way more than another RB. I’m far more concerned about the durability of the right side of the O line than I am about Hardesty’s injury. If you can’t block or stop the run or rush the QB, having 17 quality RB’s won’t get you anywhere. So, yes, we need a quality RB to tandem Hillis, but not at the expense of upgrades and depth that are more critical.
@11- thats essentially what im saying. On OL we still need a starter, where as RB we have our #1 and #2 guys. A very low pick, UDFA or cheap FA is the route to go for RB depth. But needing depth doesnt constitute a “High” in position upgrade.
TOP PRIORITY: resign Vickers.
agree.
@Vengeful Pat, totally agree with you on Rodgers. I think he’s absolutely THE back the browns should target in the 5-6th round range. Great base, competed well for 3 years in the Pac-10, catches the ball well out of the backfield, would be a great compliment to Hillis’ game, and he’s grading out well through the scouts I read so far.
Re-Murray, he is getting torn apart by a lot of scouts for running too upright, not having a strong base, not breaking tackles or being agile enough to evade defenders, if that comes off the tape in college, I don’t think he lasts in the NFL for more than 2-3 years.
Re-Devine, also another player I’ve heard that’s been falling. Scouts aren’t always right, just something I’ve heard. As
Bottom line, as long as we don’t take a back before the 4th round and we do take one at one point, I’ll be happy.
[…] Last year we thought we’d introduce ourselves to Mike Holmgren by offering a report of each position group. The reports contained a ‘Roster Upgrade Advisory System’ not unlike that of Homeland Security. This year, even though the big show has been around for a year and has Tom Heckert in house, we thought we’d give the reports another shot. Previous reports: OL, DB, ST, RB […]
Resigning Vickers should easily be viewed as the #1 priority for the offense. One of the reasons Hillis’ numbers declined in the latter part of the season is that we were going with 2 tight end sets and Vickers was on the sidelines. Hillis, Hardesty, Bell or whoever else, will be 50% better if LV is leading them into the holes.
[…] the team has greater needs at this stage, the majority of the early selections will likely be aimed at defensive […]