NBA Draft: On the Road With Chris Grant
January 18, 2011Cleveland Fans- Your Input Needed
January 18, 2011First of all, my condolences to all the season ticket holders out there. I don’t take your financial sacrifices lightly. The veritable jobbing that you are taking this season at the Q is everybody and nobody’s fault. The NBA and Dan Gilbert know what they are doing when they make season ticket holders buy their tickets so far in advance. As consumers, you know the risks too. The NBA, Dan Gilbert and you the consumer all have some culpability here. Just the same, as a fan, my sympathies lie first and foremost with you season ticket holders. That being said, the point of this is to say that what is happening now is for the best.
We have all seen some drastic descents in sports history, but this LeBron-induced descent is something extraordinary. It isn’t all LeBron’s fault either. This Cavs team could, and should be better than they are. LeBron didn’t cause all these injuries. He certainly didn’t knock Anderson Varejao out for the rest of the season. In the end though, this is probably one of the most fortunate, unintentional tank-jobs in the history of the NBA.
Other teams have tanked, most notably here at home, the Cavaliers team that ended up being the lottery winner that brought LeBron James to the Cavaliers in the first place. That team (the subject of Scott’s “Where are they now?” article) won seventeen games on the backs of Ricky Davis, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Carlos Boozer, Jumaine Jones, Dajuan Wagner, and Darius Miles. That was rock bottom for the Cavaliers, but it was years in the making.
The Cavaliers teams won 47 games in the 1997-98 season before losing in the first round of the Eastern Conference first round for the fourth time in five years under Mike Fratello. The Cavaliers were bad in five straight seasons before finally reaching that rock bottom in 2002-03. Cavs fans had to endure the strike-shortened 22-28 season, followed by seasons with win totals of 32, 30, 29, and finally 17.
That was a grueling and painful descent. Compared to that, what is happening this year could be considered just ripping the band-aid off quickly.
So the fact that the Cavaliers are unfortunate enough to be this bad this year under extraordinary circumstances could turn out to be the most fortunate timing in the history of the organization depending on how they come out of it. Make no mistake, it all comes down to what the Cavaliers’ front office does right now to determine how the Cavaliers come out of this. If Dan Gilbert, Chris Grant and the Cavaliers want this to be a quick turnaround then they need to be vigilant in trying to use the rest of this season to get as many first and high second round draft picks as possible.
If the Cavs do most everything right, they can make the history books look at the Cavaliers almost like the San Antonio Spurs the year David Robinson missed all but six games. That season in 1996-97, the Spurs won 20 games after three seasons winning 55, 62, and 59. Of course, we all know how that story ended. The Spurs got Tim Duncan in the draft and spawned one of the most impressive team runs in NBA history including four NBA Championships.
The situation is different for the Cavaliers because they don’t have a David Robinson returning from the injury list, but you get my point. If the Cavaliers take advantage of all the moving parts, they could emerge as one of the deeper, stronger teams in the NBA after just one season rather than just languishing their way there over the course of half a decade.
The way it has worked out, nobody can accuse them of purposefully tanking. Again, none of this helps you season ticket holders right now, but maybe this is at least a silver lining.
21 Comments
“they could emerge as one of the deeper, stronger teams in the NBA after just one season”
What?! No, no, no, no.
First, I don’t think this is possible. We have too many holes that won’t be fixed in one season. But, more importantly, it’s just not how deep, strong teams are built in small markets.
Look at Portland, Oklahoma City, Orlando, and even bigger markets that used the same model (LA Clippers, Chicago). All are deep teams in talent, but it took years and years in the lottery to achieve the correct balance of young players learning and growing together. This is what we need to achieve.
The problem is that like the Clippers mentioned above, this strategy heavily relies on hitting on the correct draft picks. You can’t draft a Potapenko and Dejuan Wagner in the top10. Or, even if you hit on a few, you could still end up like the Clippers, Twolves, Kings, and Nets currently. Teams that have assembled a few interesting parts, but haven’t put them together.
Building a team in the NBA is either the easiest sport to do it in (if you ‘hit’ in the draft with a Durant, LeBron, or Dwight) or the hardest (if you don’t get that superstar to build around and need to actually assemble a team).
I am in it for the long haul with this team. I just don’t expect a quick turnaround. This process will have peaks and valleys but hopefully we ‘hit’ in the draft and can start having some more hope and optimism about the future. It’s just that future is a few years off.
Yeah, the difficult part was that LeBron was so good that his rookie season allowed the team to be right near the playoffs. That was also the downfall as the team would never pick in the lottery again.
This was essentially the point of my piece yesterday. The post-Jordan Bulls were bad for seven years. The Magic, after Shaq left, didn’t win a playoff game for 12 (12!!!) years. The Jazz got lucky and still needed four years to get where they are today.
This team needs (I stress needs) a good two-to-three seasons of sub-par basketball to get back to a level of perennial contention. Sure, the Twitter trolls and fair-weather fans will come and go, but it’ll all be better in the end.
The trouble I see with the NBA in Cleveland is that it doesn’t appear that anyone wants to play in Cleveland. So, if you need 2-3 years of sub par performance to seriously improve the team, aren’t the guys you originally picked already starting to filter out?
The Cavaliers kept LeBron for 6 years, but his original contract was only for 3 years, right?
You aren’t a fan why do you come here you troll? Oh wait that’s usually what is said to me by the great sports fans here. Kudos Craig for having the stones to write what you did, you speak the truth. As I’m sure you know the truth isn’t always popular.
All that aside I agree with the previous poster in that I dont see the Cavaliers rebounding like the Spurs. If anything I hate that comparison. First as previously mentioned the Cavaliers don’t possess one player like a David Robinson. Second this is way to high a bar to set for first year GM Chris Grant. Third after the employment of ex-Spurs Ferry and Brown I hate any references to San Antonio. San Antonio is to Cleveland what the Packers are to the Browns. (Hopefully Green Bay east continues for football).
I’m very skeptical of solely going the draft pick route. The Cavaliers need to trade for at least one younger high upside player OR completely pay through the nose for one All-Star. I think the better route is to obtain a high upside athletic player then draft around him. Just a thought.
The Cavs kept LeBron for 7 years. A 4yr deal and a 3 yr deal. Don’t forget that if the CBA keeps the same general principles of htis one that after that 4yr deal the player is a restricted FA.
So, LeBron was basically ‘stuck’ in Cleveland. He could have tried to figure out something or thrown a fit to get out, but we could have matched any contract offer and told him to get out of his diapers (in hindsight, this route actually would have been best, but we wouldn’t have thought so at the time)
@Scott – we are in complete agreement on many things with the Cavs.
The number one problem with your assessment is that the NBA draft this year is nearly completely bereft of superstar talent.
Kyrie Irving, the current #1 pick in most mock drafts, has played only 8 games this season and none against ACC opponents.
Perry Jones, the guy who supposedly has most upside, struggles in half of the games and seems to have “KWAME BROWN” painted on his forehead.
Harrison Barnes, the guy who came into this year, as an Preseason All-American as a freshman has mircalously played himself out of the first round.
Meanwhile, the best player/best freshman on the best team in the country, Jared Sullinger is supposedly under-sized, has weight issues and not athletic enough to play in the NBA. (Which I think is BS but I’m not a scout.)
In short, the Cavs are screwed regardless.
Wishful thinking Craig, but I’m not so sure. First of all, San Antonio won the lottery on Duncan who, aside from the fact that he was as close to a sure-thing as they come, also happens to be one of the most loyal players in the NBA.
This has allowed SA to keep stability and continue getting better by drafting very well and filling in the necessary gaps quite wisely with FA’s.
I just don’t see the Cavs competing again until at least the 2013-14 season. Yes, we are going to have a high draft pick this season (aren’t we all relieved it was never traded last season?), but I don’t see many sure-thing type players, other than maybe Jared Sullinger and maybe Perry Jones.
I guess here is hoping we get Sullinger.
the cavs DID pick in the lottery after getting lebron. i think it was that first year where paxson took (ugh) Luke Jackson at #10. (Thanks paxson!!)
There is not going to be an NBA season next year anyways so no worries.
Well, if there are no sure fire all-stars in the top of the draft this season. Trade down a few spots to grab a solid player and get another second or possibly another first for next years draft.
I hate to play the hindsight jerk, but this organization has been in this position before, and in hindsight, it didn’t work out so well – building from the draft. We had a period of six years (1999-2004) in which we drafted in the top 10 every year (and picked up extra first rounders). We had the chance to build via the draft a deep, young team, and we even lucked out landing that once in a generation superstar. We all know how that run ended. But is this what we should be hoping happens again? Could we possibly expect better results? What have we learned from the last time we went through all of this?
Let’s review:
-2001 We pick Diop and Haywood in the first round. We pass on: Joe Johnson, Gerald Wallace, Tony Parker, and Gilbert Arenas.
-2002 We pick Wagner over Amare. Boozer pick is a steal.
-2003 The incorrectly named “Chosen One.”
-2004 We pick Luke Jackson over Al Jefferson, Josh Smith, Jameer Nelson and Kevin Martin. Boozer walks away – we get nothing.
-2005 No first rounder (traded in 1997 for Wesley Person). Could have potentially drafted Danny Granger or David Lee in this slot.
-2006 Shannon Brown, Boobie.
2007 No first rounder (traded in 2005 for the services of one Jiri Welsch). Could have potentially drafted Aaron Brooks, Carl Landry or Marc Gasol in this slot.
I know hindsight is 20/20, yada, yada, yada.. But had we hit on even just one of these picks, or kept Boozer, history could’ve been completely rewritten. It’s in the draft that the Cavs botched the LeBJ era. We clearly had an opportunity to surround the Loser with a team filled with young talent that could grow together. Instead we made lousy picks and traded for aged veterans in a “win this year at all costs” mode instead of a dynasty building mode.
Anyways, the point is: while it’s nice to say “oh, we’ll just build through the draft,” that prospect is much easier said than done. I think you have to get insanely lucky to build that way. You can’t hold the decisions of the past against this ownership/management, but what proof do we have that they will make smarter draft picks? Better scouting?
Everyone keeps bringing up Oklahoma City as our role model, but the Thunder picked in the top 10 four years in a row. And they traded for a rookie drafted #5 overall. That’s four top 5 picks in four years. Then in 2010 they picked 11th overall. Long story short, we probably have to stink for several years before we become relevant again, or start REALLY amassing lots of draft picks (to use to trade up?)
arch – you make alot of great points. thankfully, the ones responsible for that atrocious drafting, trades and decisions (ie, Paxson) is long gone. the 2005 and 2007 “no picks” were paxson’s fault too. it actually seems Ferry did an ok job drafting where they were picking, snagging GIbson in round 2 and Shannon Brown is serviceable (although not for us). Hickson, for where he was picked, is solid. ok, so there are a few guys taken after Hickson (Batum, Ibaka, Courtney Lee, Ryan Anderson) that are also decent but no sure-fire hits to be honest. Eyenga, at least so far, seems better than expected and could be at least serviceable. not much significant taken after that last pick of round 1 anyways (buddinger, dejuan blair, marcus thornton are at least decent, but so far nothing spectacular). even last year, we traded the last pick of round 1 to get Jamison to make lebron happy. that pick was used on Lazar Hayward (who?) and traded to Minny. the only one that really stands out after that is landry fields, but Grant at least made up for it by snagging Harris and Samuels who may turn out to be serviceable.
@11 Wow did you remember that? Ugh and I thought the Browns drafted poorly. I think that speaks for itself. Anyways you build through the draft normally but this is why I have no faith in Chris Grant. To me it feels like deja vu, here we go again. The fact there isn’t a clear cut #1 pick, as of today, makes me nervous even more.
@13 Haha, no. But a boring day at work has me trolling though old NBA drafts…
Sullinger is legit. I’m 100% sold on his future NBA stardom.
that is all.
There will not be an NBA season next year. If there is, it will have been cut in half at a minimum. Way too many owners want to see see a level playing field moving forward. Way too many teams losing a lot of money this year. THE MIAMI HEAT WILL LOSE MONEY THIS YEAR. That’s how screwed up the league is right now.
Sorry LeBron, but if you don’t get one this year you most likely won’t get one next year. Then you’ll be 28. Two years lost. Tick tock. Tick tock. Oops, forgot to mention, Wade’s knees.
I hate the 97-98 Spurs for the same reason I hate the 2008 Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins: on the surface, it looks like the teams all magically went from atrocious to stellar in one season, ignoring the fact that the process (/Mangini’d) was more time-consuming and complex than that. As Craig points out, the 96-97 Spurs did more than just have one good draft to return to prominence. Both Atlanta and Miami had been building up a talent base and getting their houses in order with GMs and coaching staffs. But all people see is the drastic change in record form one season to the very next, and they assume it’s just that easy to do. These apparent overnight successes then lead to completely unreasonable expectations by fans of other struggling teams, who want to see their favorite do the same. If they don’t, the fans flip out: Browns fans have been for the last 2 years, and Cavs fans could find themselves slipping into that same trap. Rebuilds are necessary, and most of them take time and patience. Until folks accept that, we are going to be screaming for coaches’ heads every 2 years and cursing ownership, to the detriment of the teams we love so much.
The draft is many cases is a crapshoot.
Even the advanced stats guys don’t always get it right – Hollinger had Tyrus Thomas as like the greatest rookie prospect in a millenia coming out of college. And for every Luke Jackson (seriously, never draft a “shooter” in the top 10) there’s a David West lying aroud in the 2nd round.
In college Rajon Rondo was regularly abused on the court – now he is one of the best point guards in the country. People said Chris Paul was too small to be dominant…a lot of it is luck.
It is REALLY easy to look at hindsight – another problem is when you draft someone you really don’t understand how quickly they will grow. Al Horford is suddenly a stud – how badly could that have helped atlanta the last 3 years…just took him 4 years to become worthy of the number 3 pick.
The Cavs made some mistakes, drafted poorly, the Jiri Welsch deal was inexplicable, and overpaid for some average players – but they also pulled of a few coups in the LeBron era. The biggest thing the Cavs have going forward is they have an owner that will overpay. They need to hit the draft well a few years, and then add some veteran talent in FA – and they could be good in 3 years.
That’s bullcrap. The people who purchased season-tickets have ZERO culpability. It’s why stores have return policies, because the buying public demands them. You purchase a product, and if it’s not what you thought you purchased, you can return it for a refund. Absolutely nobody thought this is what they were purchasing. This was simply thousands of separate major transactions made by Gilbert and his cronies in total bad faith.
And by the way, Rondo was an excellent defender in college. Don’t know what this Pestak guy is talking about. And what purported “coups” did they “pull off” in the LeBron Era? Flip Murray? Mo Williams? These are “coups?” You don’t have to look any further than Danny Ferry to figure out why LeBron is gone and instantly they’re a corpse at the bottom of the landfill.
Oh, and Lyndall, the reason the Spurs tanked was they lost not only Robinson, but they also lost Sean Elliott to injury. Their two best players. Two all-stars. Then they hopped six places in the lottery and lucked into a franchise player. Pretty dumb to compare lightning striking then to what the Cavaliers have now and what’s coming in the draft.
Joey Dorsey was an excellent defender in college too.
Mo Williams for Damon Jones (effectively) was a coup.