Andy Marte: Mercifully, It’s Over
November 5, 2010Cavaliers Preview Game #5: Cavs at 76ers
November 5, 2010
When and Where: Sunday November 7th, 2010 – 1:00 PM – Cleveland Browns Stadium – Cleveland, OH
Overview: Everyone in the national media wants to continue the Mangini vs. Belichick storyline for this game. And now for something completely different. I couldn’t possibly care less about that storyline. Belichick’s run here in Cleveland is long since forgotten by pretty much everyone not named Tony Grossi and Bernie Kosar. I mean, we still remember it, but as fans, I get this feeling that most of us have bigger fish to fry with our current team with our current staff. The last thing I truly care about is what the handshake will be like between the two at the end of the game.
The Browns have a difficult task ahead of them. The Patriots have the very best record in the NFL at 6-1. They have had a medium schedule so far, I would say. They have beaten Cincy, Buffalo, Miami, Baltimore, San Diego and Minnesota, while losing to the Jets in the second week. Tom Brady (Yankees fan, see pic) is their quarterback (duh.) It almost seemingly doesn’t matter who departs from this team on an annual basis.
They re-tool on the fly. Not that it matters to this week’s game, but how amazing is it that the Pats have two first round draft picks, two second round draft picks and two third rounders this season. All it cost them was Laurence Maroney, an aging Richard Seymour and a cranky Randy Moss. That, my friends is why I respect the hell out of Bill Belichick regardless of what his history with the old Cleveland Browns was. The organizational efficiency is a thing to behold.
Anyway, onto the matchup for this Sunday.
Airing it Out: As I said before Tom Brady (Yankees fan, see pic) is their quarterback. He has 12 TDs to only 4 INTs so far this season. I am going to create my own stat here for this team because this is what concerns me about the Patriots. Yards after the catch or YAC. When Randy Moss was with the Pats and trying they were more dangerous over the top. Give Tom Brady (Yankees fan, did you see the pic?) time and he would heave it as far as he could and Randy Moss would find a way to catch it. Now that he is gone, they are more likely to find space in the secondary and run like crazy.
The top three guys right now for the Pats in this category are Aaron Hernandez with 6.59 YAC per reception (YACpr,) Wes Welker with 4.28 YACpr, and Danny Woodhead with 5.29 YACpr. These three guys have amassed those numbers over 89 receptions combined. Everyone knows about Wes Welker and I expect the Browns to scheme pretty effectively for him. The guy I worry about is 5’9″ Danny Woodhead. He is small, shifty and dangerous in the open field.
Running it Down: The Patriots traded Laurence Maroney to the Broncos because they didn’t need him anymore. It was a surprise to me and a great many other people in the NFL, especially with aging vets Fred Taylor and Kevin Faulk on the roster. Give Belichick credit though. He again figured out how to load up on the fly with the addition of Danny Woodhead and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Against the Vikings, Green-Ellis ran for 112 yards and 2 TDs on 17 attempts. Danny Woodhead carried the ball 6 times for 13 yards, but also had a touchdown.
The Pats set up the run with their passing attack. If their passing attack is working, their running backs are more than capable of taking advantage.
In the Trenches: In order for the Browns to be successful on offense this weekend, they will have to run the ball with Peyton Hillis. It is going to be a difficult task assuming Belichick is planning to stop it. The Browns will be up against Vince Wilfork who is 325 pounds of pure beast. He will be flanked by former Cleveland Brown Gerard Warren and Brandon Deaderick. That would be bad enough, but the two inside linebackers are Jerod Mayo and Brandon Spikes. They will be looking to clog all the running lanes and the Browns will have to find a way to out-physical this physical bunch.
Good news for the Patriots is that they got their guard Logan Mankins back this week. He probably isn’t going to start, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he ended up seeing the field quite a bit. Mankins is 28 and helps anchor a veteran line featuring Matt Light and Dan Koppen. The Browns have struggled to get pressure on the quarterback. They are tied for 22nd in the league (with New England) with only 13 sacks on the year. The Browns are also currently ranked 12th in the league in interceptions with 8, but they needed a 4 INT outburst vs. the Saints to get that high. The battle for the line of scrimmage will be the only way to build on that total this week, and it will be tough against a veteran Patriots offensive line that just got a two time Pro Bowler back in Mankins.
Special Teams: The Browns’ special teams was spectacular in the victory over the Saints. Josh Cribbs threw a cross-field lateral to Eric Wright that set up a huge return. Reggie Hodges faked a punt and ran for 68 yards up the middle. I don’t expect plays like that to get repeated this weekend in Cleveland. Still, it doesn’t mean that the Browns shouldn’t be able to re-energize their special teams play with a bye week to gain health. Josh Cribbs has looked a bit tired and banged up so far this season, so here’s hoping he gets opportunities and is feeling great after some extended rest.
As of right now, the Browns are averaging a measly 17.5 yards per kickoff return with a long of 34 yards. That, is not good as the Browns are ranked 30th in the NFL in that department with only 489 kickoff return yards. It isn’t for a lack of opportunities either. The Browns have the 13th most kickoff return opportunities in the NFL. Part of that is teams kicking away from Josh Cribbs. Still, 17.5 yards per attempt is dead last in the NFL and the 34 yard “long” is third worst in the NFL.
Prediction: I am now 3-4 picking the Browns games after being wrong in predicting a Browns loss vs the Saints. The Browns won 30-17 and I wrongly picked the Browns to lose by a score of 27-10. I was happy to be wrong.
This week, the Browns are around 4 point underdogs at home after their bye week. That should speak to just how good the Pats are and just how well they are coached. The Browns’ victory over the Saints was wonderful, but it has to be considered an anomaly because of all the gimmickry and trickery. A lot of you folks on Twitter are still trying to get me to use the word trickeration, but I still continue to boycott in hating the made up word.
Anyway, I can’t in good conscience pick the Browns to win this game. Colt McCoy is set to make another start against a top-tier team. He was able to avoid making any big mistakes in the win over New Orleans, but I think the Patriots’ defense masterminded by Bill Belichick is another beast altogether. I think the Browns’ defense will be picked apart underneath by guys like Welker, Woodhead and Aaron Hernandez all day by Tom Brady (Giants fan? Sheesh. Front-runner.)
The Browns will do their best to control the clock and play a field position game, but ultimately they will be blown out in the fourth quarter after keeping it close much of the game. I think the Browns will be chasing the Pats losing 14-10 before they will give up two more scores late. The Pats will finish the day winning 24-10.
17 Comments
love love love LOVE what you did with the hats there. LOVE IT
1. Even the best team in the league isn’t undefeated. There’s more parity than usual, and the Browns have played well without gimmickry against some really good teams. I don’t think they’ll win, but they’ve got as good a shot as eve.
2. Let’s not glorify the Seymour trade. Richard Seymour had a solid year for a terrible team, and he would have been better for the Pats, who didn’t have a great year.
3. Since when is Danny Woodhead a household name? He’s been in like three mediocre games in his career.
Where’s his Fútbol de Espáña t-shirt?
Thank you Craig, for using real words. Drives me nuts when ESPN commentators use a made up word with more syllables than the real word.
not for nothing but you said trickeration. good god if you were at hogwart’s you would never have made it to second semester (for having mentioned he who must not be named).
browns 30-20. pats defense… pats defense is like our defense but softer. our line has practiced against their schemes all year. pats’ LB have practiced against our line all year. but they haven’t seen anything like peyton hillis running behind lawrence vickers. they can watch all the film and scheme and scheme… pats’ D cant match up physically against our running game. also… given the pats’ film-watching mania, they’ll be very surprised when momass burns them over the top while theyre jamming the middle lanes to stop watson/moore.
we cant stop brady all day. dont kid yourself about no deep threat without moss.. brandon tate is damn good. (that was a sick 20008 UNC receiving corps with tate and hakeem nicks.) tate will be a problem and if we can keep him to scorching e-wright to 100 yds and one TD, we’ll win.
Not to dwell on the obvious, but a bad match up in the dreaminess category.
Colt, no offense, you seem pretty cool football-wise but in the network’s split screen with Brady we’re gonna get killed, man. Maybe we can photoshop Brady’s eyes or guns, maybe we can rent Jeff Garcia’s squeeze to sit in the stands and wear your jersey and look concerned when you’re sacked. You have a hot sister? How about calling Daniel Gibson’s stylist tonight? Two days away, give us something to work with.
Wait: Tom Brady = dreamy, Brady Quinn = dreamy. You think maybe … naaah.
I wonder how well Eric Wright is going to sleep Saturday night. Brady will be firing all over the place Sunday.
Quick note to Harv 21, google “colt mccoy girlfriend” or “colt mccoy wife” yeah, screw garcia’s squeeze.
@6 You are dead-on with Brandon Tate. He’s the reason the Patriots thought Moss was somewhat expendable. Also, let’s not forget about Deion Branch who is only a decent player when he’s with New England. Brady will spread the ball around a ton and I’m worried that our constant blitz pressure will just lead to dump-off passes to Danny Woodhead and Wes Welker for 20 yard gains. Maybe Rob Ryan has learned to dial it back a bit? With that said, Tom Brady is not the Tom Brady of old, and I wouldn’t be too shocked to see the Browns win it.
@Vengeful Pat,
Containing Woodhead and Welker is what worries me as well. I think the Browns would have had a much more difficult time stopping New Orleans if a healthy Reggie Bush had been on the field, catching passes out of the backfield.
I put my main notes in the ‘will win if’ thread, but forgot an important one:
defense:
4. Ward/Elam don’t drop their easy pick-6 opportunities this week.
Um, you didn’t invent yards after catch.
One thing you forgot to mention is that the Pats’ D is ranked 29th against the pass. As bad as we think our pass defense is, New England’s is notably worse. Instead of being an impossible task for us, it could very well be Colt’s chance to break out.
Before you double over in laughter, think about it for a moment. The Patriots are pretty good against the run, but they’ll have to focus hard on stopping a now fully healthy Hillis. Do that, and they expose their pass coverage. Cribbs and MoMass are also back to play alongside Watson and Moore in the passing game. They’ll be facing the weakest secondary they’ll see all season. They should be able to get some favorable matchups, given how much larger they are than the average wideout. They’re big, strong, and rather good at getting yards after the catch themselves. Colt will have a full array of weapons at his disposal for the first time. New England might like to blitz, but after the Steelers and Saints? McCoy ought to be getting used to that by now.
Seriously, everybody’s been worrying about how the Browns will stop Tom Brady. I think an equally important question could turn out to be how do the Patriots stop the Browns? If Hillis is healthy and Colt’s half the QB we hope he is, we could really turn some heads this weekend.
I knew that Rick. Nobody else had YAC per reception, which I thought was a better way of ranking players via elusiveness. I am sure someone has it, but I calculated it manually. Next time I will divide the result by 100 and call it the “Craig Quotient for Running Really Fast Without Getting Tackled After Receiving a Pass”
🙂
Craig is the Al Gore of YAC
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