Tribe Weekend Recap: Mercifully It’s Over
October 4, 2010The Forgotten Greatest Moments in Cleveland Sports History
October 4, 2010At the Browns game yesterday, there was a sign hanging in the corner of my end zone that read: “King Who?? Cleveland is Cribbs Country!” A great sentiment, but one thing stuck out from the sign was a #23 with a circle and slash through it. And that gave me pause, because in my estimation there are two young men on the Cleveland sports landscapes with bright futures who both wear that number on their backs. Why should they be punished for the transgressions of another?
I’m not saying that these two guys will somehow render moot LeBron James and all of the baggage he has here. Far from it. I guess my point is this: let’s look forward. Let’s look at these young, new #23s and perhaps see them as symbolic of a new generation of young stars to hone their sports crafts in Cleveland.
CF Michael Brantley – #23, Cleveland Indians
Brantley, who came over in the CC Sabathia trade in 2008, finally got to spend the second half of the 2010 season with the Tribe firmly planted in the leadoff spot. After having a solid September in 2009, Brantley made the opening day roster but struggled, hitting 5-for-32 (.156) in nine games before heading back to Columbus. Brantley then had a great first half in AAA Columbus (67 games, .319/.395/.425). Once the bloom was off the rose for the Tribe, Brantley was back for good in July. And, in his first eight games back he continued to struggle: 3-for-36, .083
But, for whatever reason, Brantley had some kind of light flip on for him right around July 16th. From that point on, he hit .284 (65-for-229) with a .336 OBP from the leadoff spot. Brantley has continued to play a solid center field, and as a “true” lead-off prospect Brantley should allow for Grady Sizemore to move down in the lineup to a spot where he may be better used. At age 23, Brantley has a bright future ahead of him in Cleveland.
CB Joe Haden – #23, Cleveland Browns
Haden, the 7th pick in the 2010 NFL Draft, is the first pick of the new Holmgren/Heckert front office regime. With that, he—whether rightly or not—becomes the standard bearer for their ability to build a team. To this point, Haden hasn’t had a ton of playing time, but when he’s played he looks like he belongs. He’s made several great special teams tackles, and he has 14 total tackles (12 solo) in four games so far, including six in Sunday’s win over the ‘Nasty alone which perhaps indicates some improvement and increased stats going forward. The 21 year old has three passes-defensed in four games.
While not having the impact of his rookie secondary-mate TJ Ward, Haden physically looks ready to play CB in the NFL, and at age 21 is only going to get better the more he plays. And, as the theoretical standard-bearer of the Holmgren/Heckert front office, he’s most likely going to get every opportunity to do so.
So, while I would agree that neither of these guys has yet had the statistical impact to make us forget that “other #23,” I would argue that given their ages and their potential we might someday in 2011 or 2012 look at both of them and wonder why we ever put up that #23 with a circle-slash for all the world to see.
19 Comments
“While not having the impact of his rookie secondary-mate TJ Ward.”
I would argue with this to the extent that Ward gets a pass for coverage breakdowns. Agree that the future looks bright for #23, either way.
Brantley is 23 years old! Double 23!!
Watch the tape. Haden was switched on to T.O. most of the last quarter while Eric Wright was relegated to Shipley/ Andre Caldwell coverage. Confidence already appears to be growing in Haden’s abilities.
LeBron is gone. He never really liked it here, he quit on us, he got what he wanted and he left. Yeah, we were played by a 25 year old ego-maniac superstar. Yeah, it still stings a little. But it’s time for us to turn the page, grow up, and move on. The longer we hold on to this, the more juvenile and petty we look.
In that respect, the article is right on. Let go of the LeBron hate, and support the athletes who are still here.
Denny = Jim Carrey
/the number 23’d
I’m sorry, but just because Brantley “looks” like a leadoff hitter doesn’t mean he is one yet. That .336 OBP isn’t even good, and when we add in the .371 SLG, things don’t get any better. He might be a good player down the road, and a useful CF next year, but if Sizemore or Cabrera, two guys who could top .350 OBPs when healthy, do recover from their injuries next year, they are much more viable candidates at the top of the order. At the moment, Brantley hits like a bottom third of the order guy.
“I would argue with this to the extent that Ward gets a pass for coverage breakdowns.”
He’s also the strong safety – his primary role isn’t in coverage.
“Double 23!!”
But what does it meeeean?
Charles, your points are valid. Perhaps I’m allowing my experience of seeing Brantley A LOT here in Columbus bias my projections, but seeing him here he LOOKS like a leadoff guy. He upped both his average and OBP substantially in his second year in AAA, and he is still just 23. He may not be the prototypical leadoff man right now, but he certainly has the tools, the potential, and a higher ceiling as a leadoff man than those other two (though they obviously excel in their roles).
My main point with this post was more about the future, and it is my hope that as Brantley continues to develop–based on development I’ve already seen in 2009 and 2010 at least at the AAA level, and one could argue also as the season went on here in Cleveland–he will develop into that leadoff man for the next decade.
Or until we’re forced to trade him for more prospects.
Ward also leads the team in tackles, for whatever that’s worth in terms of impact.
@ Charles:
I know I’ve beat the Brantley-drum pretty hard around these parts, but I still think he’s a better lead-off option than Sizemore or Cabrera. Here’s my thinking:
Sizemore’s power slots in well at #2 in the lineup (in front of Choo and Santana). I did some work on the importance of #2 hole in the lineup here: http://bit.ly/bmR1ce
So the smart choice for lead-off, in my mind, is between Cabrera and Brantley. There’s reason to believe that Cabrera is regressing: this season, his OBP was .326–that’s below league average! Further, the only time in the minors he OBPed over .350 was in 2008, right before his call-up. Brantley, on the other hand, has never had a minor league OBP below .350. Throw in the fact that he’s a legitimate base-stealing threat, and I go with Brantley, unless Cabrera proves he can keep his OBP at levels he never did in the minors.
If Brantley stinks it up, by all means throw Dribble in there. But based on their track records and career trajectory, I like Brantley at the top of the order.
Now, were we talking about jersey numbers or something?
DP – all this talk of ‘leadoff man’ just doesn’t make sense to me. We simply want the guy(s) who get on base at the best rate to bat at the top of the order. When Brantley can do that, let’s put him at the top of the order
Jon – I absolutely agree about the #2 spot. But doesn’t your theory suggest that Choo should be there if that’s such an important spot? And of course Cabrera regressed, his arm was broken. If the offseason doesn’t help him get back to where he was before, then fine, but I think you a guy the benefit of the doubt that he isn’t on the downswing in his age 24 season (and if he is, we might want to be concerned about Brantley too). And Cabrera put up OBP’s over .350 in the minors in 05 and 07. The only time he didn’t was when Seattle inexplicably skipped him over AA to make him one of the very youngest players in the PCL at age 20.
@ Charles:
I think this discussion depends on where you’re making distinctions. In 2005 he posted a .407 OBP in low-A ball, but then .325 and .250 at his other stops that season (the last of which was the PCL stint you mentioned). In 2006, it was .323 in Tacoma (a hitter’s league) and .295 in Buffalo. In 2007, it was good: .380 between Akron and Buffalo–his one good OBP season. Since then, he hasn’t spent considerable time in the minors.
2009 has been his only MLB season with a “good” OBP at .361. His other seasons are pretty pedestrian.
I guess I’m a skeptic, but I don’t see a strong enough track record there. And to throw out this season because of a broken arm? That doesn’t make sense to me. He didn’t PLAY with the broken arm; he just missed time. And before he broke his arm his OBP was .322; after it was .328. He actually did BETTER after breaking his arm, but both suggest that he might not be the OBP guy he was in 2009.
I hope I’m wrong about this (or at least half wrong: I want Brantley to be good). But Cabrera’s 2009 looks like a blip rather than a pattern to me.
And as for Choo, I’ve thought about leading him off. But that would piss people off, so it’s never going to happen.
The fact is, these changes in batting order barely matter over the course of the season. What matters is whether Brantley and Cabrera can make fewer outs next season. Here’s to it…
As for me, Charles, I’m talking about projections. Brantley was an excellent leadoff man in AAA in 2010: .319 average, .395 OBP. This was after his .350 OBP as a 22-year-old in AAA.
So, at age 23, is it silly of my to suggest/project that he hasn’t peaked, especially given his track record in the minors?
Where to begin Jon . . . Cabrera had three legitimate seasons in the minors compared to six for Brantley. Doesn’t that say something to you right there? Here’s a guy who could quickly move up through the system, he was put in AAA at 19 (though, as I said, probably too soon), and not only in the majors, but holding his own at 21. Brantley didn’t hit AAA until 22, and still has had struggles at 23. In those 3 seasons for Cabrera, we have a .360 OBP – solid, a .380 OBP – great, and a .310 OBP when he skipped AA and probably shouldn’t have. Maybe if he didn’t develop as quickly and had to be held back (like say Brantley) he wouldn’t have faced guys noticeably older than him, and he could have put up much better OBPs. His OBP through his first three seasons was .355. If that’s significantly different than his ‘good’ year to you, then you might need to readjust your thinking. Same with thinking you can really find a difference between 6 points of OBP over two different samples of not even half a season. Here we have a guy who has played against much older prospects and players his entire career and has not had a problem putting up an above-average OBP. And that includes this year, the park-adjusted league-average OBP was .319. That’s a legit track record. And I didn’t mention Choo leading off, but I would be fine with that too. He’s going to lead the team in OBP. But first you want him batting second because that spot is important, now you don’t want to piss people off by leading him off. When you decide to settle on where you stand on that issue let me know.
DP – I’m not suggesting that Brantley hasn’t peaked or that he can’t be a legit #1 hitter one day. But this talk about getting a “true” lead-off man is somewhat ridiculous. If he can lead the major league team in OBP, then sure bat him leadoff, but just because he looks/plays like one doesn’t mean we are best with forcing him into that role.
Oh Charles, you do get snippy from time to time…
If you’re happy with a .322 OBP out of your leadoff guy because it’s slightly above “park-adjusted league average”, I’m not going to convince you otherwise. My point is that Brantley’s track record suggests he has a chance to be a premium on-base guy. Cabrera’s track record suggests exactly what you cite: a fairly average ability to get on base.
And Brantley made his ML debut when he was 22. Cabrera was 21 (three months shy of his 22nd birthday). This is not a meaningful distinction to me.
Brantley didn’t hit AAA until 22, and still has had struggles at 23.
I call “BULL” on that. If you’re talking about his play in AAA (which, he technically hit at 21… he didn’t turn 22 until May of his first year in AAA, but that’s really negligable) as a 23-year-old, Brantley was stellar this year:
67 games
.319 average (87-for-273)
13 doubles
2 triples
4 homers (.425 SLG)
29 RBI (from the leadoff spot)
54 runs
34 walks (.395 OBP)
The only area he regressed at all was steals, though he tried to steal much less (13-for-18). In 2009 he stole 46 in 51 tries.
In other words, he didn’t struggle at all. Look, if you don’t like Brantley, that’s OK. But you’re grabbing at straws a little bit as to why he doesn’t deserve a shot as the leadoff man, considering his development track shows he has the tools to be a really good leadoff man.
DP deserves a pat on the back for being forced to look up Indians stats to write part of this article.
Jon you are quite good at building up strawmen. I never said I was happy with a .326 OBP, just that it was still above league average. This a response to something you actually did say “his OBP was .326–that’s below league average!” Cabrera’s track record shows an above-average ability to get on base. We have to remember that he played with players older than him, of course you would only address (and still try to skew) the ML age. Cabrera was a major leaguer 3 months before his 22nd bday. A legit major leaguer. Brantley was in the majors 4 months after, and didn’t look legit by that point.
DP – there’s some kind of miscommunication here. I was talking about Cabrera holding his own at 21, and Brantley not being able to at 23. Where else could I be talking about but the majors?