Should Cavs retire LeBron’s number?
July 25, 2010While We’re Waiting… Trick Shot Montage, Thoughts on Barnes and Starting Safeties
July 26, 2010The days of the Cavaliers competing for the Eastern Conference title are certainly over for at least the forseeable future, but they won’t be awful next season. By awful, I mean they won’t be finishing next to last in the East. Alex Kennedy at Hoopsworld posted his Eastern Conference preview this morning, and I agree with most of his projections.
Specifically, I don’t think there is any debate with his nos. 1 thru 6 of MIA – ORL – BOS – CHI – ATL – and MIL. The order may end up changing, but I agree that those six teams will in some capacity occupy the top-six seeds in the playoffs. Seven, eight, and beyond are anybody’s guess though, and I think it’s reasonable to assume that the sans-LBJ Cavaliers will end up finishing somewhere in the mix between 8 and 10.
Meaning, I don’t think it’s fair to say that they will finish 14th, which is where he has them slotted, offering the following on the Cavs:
The negative reaction from free agents this summer reflects the opinion of the Cavaliers around the NBA. Even when Cleveland was offering more money or longer deals, available players were still signing with other teams because they didn’t want to be stuck on a perennial bottom feeder. Sadly, that’s what the Cavaliers have become after the departure of LeBron James. The roster is made up of specialty players who were brought in to fit with James. But with no superstar leading the way, they’re now a team full of role players with new management and head coach. Antawn Jamison will likely be the first option on offense but with little help, it’s going to be tough for the Cavaliers to compete next season, especially since the other teams in the Central division have improved. It’s going to be a long season in Cleveland and Dan Gilbert’s guarantee is looking crazier and crazier each day.”
The Cavaliers will not be in the mix for last place next season, and I think some things with the current roster are being overlooked here. They still do have a core of Jamison – Mo Williams – JJ Hickson – and Anderson Varejao which isn’t terrible. World beaters they’re not, but that’s also not a last place line-up. Couple that with the turn-a-round potential Byron Scott’s demonstrated in the past, and I do think the Cavaliers will be more competitive than a team finishing last or second last out East.
Also, I don’t really see how the Cavaliers inability to sign free agents makes them an automatic bottom feeder perennially either. Cleveland has never been able to sign free agents. Ever. In any sport. It’s true, the Cavs won’t sign any big name free agents, and they will also have trouble signing mid-level stars as well. No debate. But they could rebuild through the draft though, and it is possible to string a few solid draft picks in a row together over the next few years. The transaction made with the Heat gives them a couple more of those opportunities, and they could end up moving a couple guys in return for additional picks over the next year or so as well. If they are able to hit with impact players in this capacity, they could find themselves back in the mix for those 4-5-6 seeds in three or four years.
What’s ironic about saying that though, is it’s probably better long-term if the Cavs did finish 14th next season. The East is certainly tougher, and there will be a lot of other NBA people also predicting the Cavs to struggle, so it would be understandable I suppose if they tanked it. But I don’t want to see them do that next season, and I also don’t think that they will, or have the lack of talent necessary to do so.
All that said, it’ll still be a long time before the Cavaliers are talked about the way they were for the last few years, and a shorter time until we see more projections like this…which will take some getting used around here I presume.
18 Comments
Sorry, off topic as usual. But I like David West in that picture above. It looks like he’s saying “It wasn’t me”
When the past few seasons the east have had sub 500 or at 500 teams making the playoffs, I think the Cavs are gonna be in. They could easily get a 7 or 8 and be playing the cHeat in the 1st round.
And who are all the FAs that spurned the cavs this year when they offered more years/money? Matt Barnes? He isnt a make or break guy. Lowry signed here but was a RFA and Houston matched. I dont recall any other report of the Cavs offering a contract with more years/money (other then #6).
I could see the Cavs as a 7-8 seed next year, but in all reality im ok playing for draft picks at this point….
Cavs (8) over Heat (1)
Storybook redemption
@ Bob – That would be a dream come true. I might even treasure it more than a title.
@ bobby– I totally thought the same thing about the “couldn’t land” free agents part. The cavs didn’t go after anyone other than those 3 and lbj was long gone before free agency even started. Such a BS analysis. yes the current cavs were role players designed around lebron. But a new coach and a new system with some young talent, to think these guys won’t get “repurposed” into a squad with different capabilites is foolish.
I wonder if LeBron would give up halfway through a Cavs/Heat 1st round series?
If I ran a franchise that needed ground up improvement, and tanking was an option, I would tank 2010-2011 and try to take advantage of the 2012 lockout.to get back to back lottery picks out of one crappy year.
The only “redemption” i can for see with the heat, is lediva blowing out something which required serious experimental surgery
@wayneEmrby, you bring up an interesting point. If we are to assume the Cavs are the worst team in the East next season (they aren’t), and they end up with a top 3 pick, and then there is a lockout (it’s happening) for let’s say one season, would the teams pick in the same order they did in 2011 once the dispute is settled? I.e. would the lock-out allow the Cavs two top 3 picks in a row? Also, a lock-out would make for one ridiculously loaded draft class come 2012 or 2013.
Saw this article, had the same issues with it. Moreso, with who he put ahead of the Cavs. We have athletic pieces, solid veterans and a proven coach, which is more than I can say for the Pistons whom he ranked higher. The Pacers have managed to do less with more for the last several seasons and I can’t see a reason that changes. The worst is where he put Philly. Apparently Doug Collins and rookie Evan Turner have them vying for the last playoff spot above a Cavs team who will be better coached than previously with several complementary playoff pieces.
who cares about being an 7 or 10 seed. we aren’t a contender now. the only way we’re getting players here is via the draft. plan for that.
Yes, let’s plan to draft Michael Olowokandi, Greg Oden, Dajuan Wagner, and Jonathan Bender. Then we’ll be set for the next 15 years.
EZ, you telling me the sixers with Turner, Holiday, Iguodala, and Young isn’t a more talented line-up than what we have? Yea, I see us right there in that 12-14 range this year.
It doesn’t matter if the Cavs *could* build a team good enough to get into the Playoffs. The point is that the Cavs absolutely should not do that.
This Summer proved that the only way a team like Cleveland has a chance of contending is by getting a twice-a-decade player, then continuing to stink until they can get two near-All-Star caliber players around that guy through the Draft. It’s the Oklahoma City model.
But as MattyFos points out, you better hope you get that LeBron or Durant, otherwise you don’t have a chance. Playing in an unappealing market in the NBA is about to be the biggest competitive disadvantage in all of the major sports, as there is nothing an owner can do about it.
@Rich
Iguodala is the only player in that list that has proven he can do it consistently in this league. The other three are prospects. Good prospects, but prospects. Turner didn’t even have a stand-out summer league.
Yes the Cavs are nowhere near as good as they were last year, but as constructed I have no trouble believing they can beat that Sixers team.
@Mike – there is 1 thing an owner can do about it (see Vegas claiming to have NBA Team lined up with many thinking it’s the Kings)
@Matty – i don’t want to be the current Pacers or at best, the current Rockets. do you? even if we don’t get a Durant/LeBron, if we get a couple players along the Westbrook, Curry, Bosh level of 2nd tier players, you can at least hope to build a solid enough team to compete.
@Rich/EZ – Philly has more young talent with Jrue, Iggy, Turner, Young (and Speights, don’t forget him). Cavs have more established talent (Mo, Jamison, Andy), and I would argue a better coach. Most important between them might be which team gels first and which team plays harder. I think the Cavs have more motivation to play really hard this year and will overachieve as a result (future years harder to predict).
@Wayne Embry – good point, and it’s likely both would be high lottery picks if that happened. however:
1. no guarantee the lockout would be for the full year (any partial season would count on the books).
2. it would at least be a new lottery drawing for both seasons, if the lottery process even survived the new CBA.
I couldn’t disagree with you more. The style that Scott will put in place puts a preimium on team depth-a team that can run and plays tight, pressure defense. The Cavs really do have alot of team depth. And it is the lack of team depth that will be the Achilles heel for Miami. It is very conceivable that the Cavs and Heat could meet in the 1st round next year. The Heat will be lucky to have a solid rotation of 6 players; the Cavs, on the other hand, will rotate their 12 man roster and will have the benefit of working with Scott for a number of months. Other than Parker and Jamison, is is a relatively young team with a number of very good players who will be coachable and, for sure, highly motivated. Don’t sell them short.