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June 22, 2010Yes. We do. For reasons that aren’t entirely clear, the Cleveland Indians will send a player to the All-Star Game to help determine home-field advantage in a World Series they have no chance of playing in.
To be honest, the Game has become a bit of a farce. It sort of matters, but it’s played like it doesn’t. Sure, the managers would like to win, but not at the expense of real effort or keeping any reserves on the bench. This magic combination of blah and blasé team up to deliver you one of the most forgettable moments in the modern baseball season: the Midsummer “Classic”. At least the NBA All-Star game knows what it is: an exhibition. The MLB version seems confused about its raison d’etre, and often leaves me wondering why we have one at all.
But each team is guaranteed one representative (until Bud Selig dies or retires), and it’s my job to vet the Indians’ candidates. Rest assured: none of these players has the slightest chance of actually being voted in, so whoever represents the Indians will be the choice of the AL manager, Joe Girardi. Without further ado, here are the Tribe’s mostly like candidates with some SABR-analysis attached to each one.
Shin-Soo Choo: Choo is certainly the most valuable Indian, if such a dubious honor were to be awarded. On the season, he’s hitting .289/.388/.405—good for a .373 wOBA. Translated that to wRC+ (weighted runs created adjusts for his home park and relative to others at his position), he’s been 34% better offensively than the average right fielder. Defensively, Choo has saved the Indians 4.5 runs with his glove and arm—by far the best performance turned in by Cleveland’s putrid defense. All told, he’s been worth 2.5 wins above replacement on the year, which, again, represents the most valuable contribution from an Indian this season.
The only argument against Choo is the competition he’ll be up against for a roster spot. This season All-Star rosters were expanded to 34 (last season they were at 33). Last season the AL rostered nine outfielders while the National League kept eight. For the sake of argument, let’s agree that the AL keeps ten outfielders on the All-Star roster this season. The starters are selected by voters, and at my last check, the first three spots are likely going to Ichiro Suzuki, Carl Crawford, and either Josh Hamilton or Nelson Cruz. Whichever Ranger loses out in the voting will probably get the call from Girardi since the counts are so close. So that leaves at most six spots for Girardi to fill. Leaving out the aforementioned players, here is the wOBA leaderboard for AL outfielders (remember, wOBA only measures offense):
Name | Team | wOBA |
Alex Rios | White Sox | 0.409 |
Magglio Ordonez | Tigers | 0.407 |
David DeJesus | Royals | 0.389 |
Nick Swisher | Yankees | 0.385 |
Jose Bautista | Blue Jays | 0.378 |
Torii Hunter | Angels | 0.378 |
Brett Gardner | Yankees | 0.377 |
Vernon Wells | Blue Jays | 0.373 |
Shin-Soo Choo | Indians | 0.373 |
From this perspective, it doesn’t look like Choo is one of the top 6 remaining OFers. Couple that with Girardi’s probable Yankee-bias, and there’s a possibility that those six spots are filled with Rios, Ordonez, Swisher, Gardner, Bautista, and Hunter.
On the other hand, if we consider Choo’s above-average defense and baserunning (taken into account in wins above replacement, or WAR), the picture shifts a bit. Check these numbers out:
Name | Team | WAR |
Alex Rios | White Sox | 3.4 |
Magglio Ordonez | Tigers | 2.7 |
Shin-Soo Choo | Indians | 2.5 |
David DeJesus | Royals | 2.3 |
Nick Swisher | Yankees | 2.1 |
Torii Hunter | Angels | 2.1 |
Vernon Wells | Blue Jays | 2.1 |
Austin Jackson | Tigers | 2.1 |
J.D. Drew | Red Sox | 2.0 |
Choo’s strengths go beyond the batter’s box, and if Girardi is looking at the advanced numbers, Choo looks to be obviously deserving of one of the six bench spots. Regardless of the roster constraints, he’s been our most productive player this season.
Fausto Carmona: Currently, Fausto’s sporting a winning record and 3.31 ERA, good for the 16th best among AL starters and just ahead of Felix Hernandez of the Mariners (3.39). That ERA is certainly nothing to turn your nose up at, but there are a few red flags that might get in Fausto’s way.
First, there’s the obvious roster limitations. Last season the AL kept eight starting pitchers. When you consider how many “no-brainer” AL pitching selections there are, it’s easy to imagine Fausto being left off the roster.
But in addition to the limited roster, there’s reason to suspect that Fausto hasn’t been quite as good as his ERA would suggest. Opposing batters are only batting .262 off him when they put the ball in play—that’s unsustainably low, and it has kept his ERA down. He’s also still struggling with walks relative to the number of batters he strikes out. In his magical 2007 season, Fausto’s K/BB ratio was 2.25—meaning he struck out 2.25 batters for every one he walked; this season the ratio is down to 1.58. It’s hard to be successful when that number slips below 2.00.*
*As an aside, Cliff Lee’s K/BB is a staggering 16.75 this season, which, if he sustained it, would shatter the all-time record held by Bret Saberhagen. He’d be a handy pitcher to have around, no?
Even ignoring the strikeouts and walks, there’s undeniable evidence that Fausto has had a remarkably lucky run of late. For his career, 8.1% of the flyballs he’s allowed have become home runs. This season? It’s 2.3%! That’s a dramatic shift downward, and we have no reason to think that it will stay that way.
Has Fausto been our best starting pitcher this season? Yep. But is he one of the eight best starters in the AL right now? I’d say no, and probably not by a long shot.
Austin Kearns: Did you read what I wrote about Choo? Good. Kearns is not better than Choo at anything (lower wOBA, worse defensive numbers, less playing time, worse baserunning), so if we only get one representative, and Choo has an uphill battle, Kearns should have no shot. That was easy, huh?
Mitch Talbot: Don’t want to spend a lot of time here, but some people have bandied theories about Mitch’s chances, so I’d better address them. Again, remember the Fausto bit about peripherals? Here are Mitch’s numbers:
ERA | BABiP | K/BB | FIP | xFIP |
4.21 | 0.285 | 1.19 | 4.68 | 4.98 |
His ERA is unspectacular, but it’s a lucky unspectacular at that. A .285 BABiP (batting average on balls in play) is slightly below average—in the minors, Talbot’s BABiP was .295. He walks nearly as many batters as he strikes out, which in some ways is impressive—since he doesn’t really strike anyone out, so his walk numbers are low—but on the other hand, it’s just not good enough to stay effective. Both FIP and xFIP see Talbot as a pitcher who should have an ERA between 4.70 and 5.00. I don’t disagree: his stuff just isn’t above average. I’m not saying we don’t need average starting pitchers, but he’s not an All-Star type talent. In other words, unless you think that Jake Westbrook is an All-Star, Mitch Talbot most certainly is NOT one.
Luis Valbuena: Just kidding—this sort of thing can get tedious and I thought we all needed a chuckle. OK, let’s move on…
Chris Perez: Other than some shaky appearances in the first few weeks of the season, Perez has been the only solid piece in an otherwise sucktacular bullpen. He’s the only member of the bullpen other than Frank Herrmann with an ERA below 4.00 and he leads the team in saves! While his strikeouts are down this season (6.49K/9 this year compared to 9.29K/9 for his career), he’s still been a remarkably effective reliever by cutting both his walks and his home runs. Here are Perez’s 2010 numbers:
ERA | K/BB | WHIP | Saves | HR/9 |
2.73 | 2.11 | 1.29 | 6 | 1.03 |
Those are pretty decent numbers, and might even be enough to warrant an All-Star appearance. On the other hand, it’s exceedingly rare for setup men to get the nod, unless they’re pitching for a team with an exceptional record, and we, um, don’t. On top of that, Perez actually has a negative win probability added for the season (-0.71), meaning that situationally, he’s contributed to helping the team lose more games than he’s helped to win. Not necessarily impressive, but he’s the best bullpen arm we’ve got. I’d say Perez is highly unlikely to make the roster, considering the limited pitching staffs and the traditional emphasis on starters and closers.
The obvious candidate to represent Cleveland at the All-Star Game is Choo, and I would guess that unless something weird happens in the next couple of weeks, he’ll be your man.
But if I were Joe Girardi, I’d give some serious thought to rostering Carlos Santana. Joe Mauer is the likely starter, and typically the teams keep three catchers. That would mean that Santana would have to beat out Victor Martinez, Jorge Posada, and/or Kurt Suzuki for a spot. Obviously the Yankee will be given some preference, and Victor has come on of late. Suzuki and the A’s are in a similar position to the Indians: he might be the only viable representative for an otherwise terrible team. On top of all that, Santana will have less than a month and a half of MLB service time under his belt, so it’s certainly a long-shot.
That said, Girardi really should care who wins this game: there’s a good chance his Yankees will be in the World Series, and if he’s in a position to win home-field advantage, he should take it. Further, it’s not like mid-season callups aren’t ever invited to the All-Star game; Stephen Strasburg is already under real consideration to be the Nationals’ representative. Who’s the most talented Indian? I’d wager that most of us would say Santana right now, and while that says more about the straits of the Cleveland Indians than anything else, it’s still something a manager with a vested interest in winning might consider.
And to be honest, he’s the only Indian I want to see more of these days.
15 Comments
Choo deserves it. I love Black Magic, but Choo has suffered with us and deserves a prize for it.
One thing I’m curious about since you are our numbers king. How much does hitting in the Yankees lineup help their numbers? Is there a way of more leveling the numbers as if they were all hitting with the same protection?
I haven’t seen much on this and it’s probably a nearly impossible task (how do you account for pitch counts and chasing starters, et cetera), but I was interested.
Thanks.
Santana’s Triple-A numbers adjusted for MLB would make him our most productive player and he’s had a heck of a start. That said, Choo goes out there every game and brings it despite being surrounded by suck. Santana will/should be an All-Star for quite some time.
fausto’s numbers are identical or nearly identical to Johan Santana’s this year. believe or it not, but its true. they have identical ERA’s and WHIP’s this season. almost the same record. Fauston has fewer K’s by virtue of one less start. i think fausto is only about 9 K’s behind. at face value, i dont think fausto is an all-star. however, chances are johan santana will be an all-star (although not deserving).
They can always cram in more outfielders. Choose Choo
Let’s give the All-Star team Luis Valbuena. Them tell them to keep him
Matty, you gave me a great idea! We don’t just let one of our players walk to the All-Star team and leave us with nothing, we make a trade for prospects! Sorry Girardi, if you want Choo, we are going to need your 12th and 35th top minor league prospects!
I think Santana should go so he can get used to being coached by Girardi…too soon?
@mgbode
I’ll be interested to hear Jon’s response, but I’ve seen studies that show that lineup “protection” actually doesn’t exist. Or if it does, there is no statistical data to prove it. Plus the stats that Jon normally uses are all stats that make their best attempt at taking all outside variables out of the equation to the get the most true evaluation of a player’s performance, and one that can be compared equally to any other player (even Minor leaguers). That’s why you don’t see him use a lot of RBI or Runs Scored, etc.
On the other hand, I never really thought about the whole “chasing starters from the game” thing and the fact that a greater total of “Yankee” at bats could come against lesser bullpen talents when compared against other teams. I know they are notorious for making pitchers work but do you think this happens enough to really affect their stats?
And back to the article topic. Unfortunately, while Giradi should have a vested interest in the winner of the game, I can’t help but think he probably isn’t looking at WAR and pitcher’s peripherals when he’s picking the last spots on the team… I certainly wish he would though.
And Jon, is there any chance you could look at Choo’s power outage this year so far in a future article? I know it gets over looked because he still has been our best hitter of the length of the year so far, but at an age where he should be starting to peak, I’m starting to get a little worried about it. I know his numbers against lefties are down this year, but is there anything else you see?
ah the mid summer classic. aka a chance for the yankee half of the all start team to play with the others guys they will buy as soon as they hit free agency.
“I know they are notorious for making pitchers work but do you think this happens enough to really affect their stats?”
This is where I am not sure. If it’s 1AB per game, I would think that yes, it would affect their stats (as somewhere around 22.5% of their overall ABs). If it ends up being much less, then I would assume not.
@mgbode:
I’ll take a stab at your question, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to answer it to your satisfaction.
First, WAR–and most of its components (wRC+, UZR, etc.) ARE adjusted for ballpark, so while the advantages of the Yankee LINEUP isn’t represented, Yankee stadium’s higher run environment is taken into account.
But that’s not what you’re asking. You’re wondering whether a lineup as good as the Yankees’ essentially compounds its greatness by not only being full of individually great players, but by putting extra stress on the starting pitcher, thus getting to the bullpen sooner. We all know that relief pitchers are worse than starters, so then they get extra ABs against worse pitching, and, TADA, their numbers get even better!
It’s a good question, and I’ve read a little bit about the problem–though it was posed as bad defense rather than good offense causing the increased plate appearances against relievers. Seems to me to be two sides of the same coin though.
The first I heard the argument seriously posed was in this article by Rob Neyer:
http://es.pn/98BX7d
Then, Tango followed up on it here in detail:
http://bit.ly/cYQPmY
My take is this. Lineup protection per se doesn’t really exist in the way we think about it (e.g. you better have a good hitter behind Albert Pujols). But the advantage of playing in a great offense (or against a bad defense, like the Indians’) might get your team more ABs against worse (bullpen) pitching, which will certainly help your numbers.
On the other hand, in your example, the Yankees play a LOT of games against good starting pitching (BOS & TB), so the ACTUAL effect is likely minimal. Nonetheless, the theoretical advantage in a weak division could be significant.
Hope that helps. Awesome question, by the way.
@Stink
YES! We trade the temporary service of our best player for prospects… That right there is a Ponzi scheme. Sign me up
At first I was opposed to the representative from every team thing, but I kind of like the idea now. It eliminates the Yankees & a few other teams players VS. The National League.
On the other hand, Cleveland, and probably Baltimore too, have no one deserving of the honor. But since we have to, I hope it’s Choo.
I agree! Send Santana to the All-Star game. Let’s start him out with the attitude of an all star and hope it helps him to build upon what he has already accomplished.
Thanks Jon and Tommy for your takes on it. And Jon, very good point on TB and Boston’s pitching negating the advantage. I completely neglected that aspect when thinking about it.