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June 25, 2010
Coming into this year, we all knew there would be some holes on the 2010 Indians. The lineup was a bit heavy on left-handers and looked young. The rotation was full of question marks and back-end types. The bullpen was…well, the bullpen in Cleveland is always a shaky proposition. Yes, there were certainly reasons to temper levels of enthusiasm regarding this team.
But I had no idea the defense would be this bad.
Before we get to the more advanced statistics, let’s look at some of the basics—if only to underscore how they don’t quite work. The Indians have lost eight of their last nine games, dating back to the Mets series. Over that span, they’ve committed eight errors that have resulted in four unearned runs. After the jump, I put together a little chart to map these games out:
| Date | Opponent | Errors | Unearned Runs | Result |
| 15-Jun | Mets | 3 | 1 | loss |
| 16-Jun | Mets | 0 | 0 | loss |
| 17-Jun | Mets | 1 | 0 | loss |
| 18-Jun | Pirates | 0 | 0 | win |
| 19-Jun | Pirates | 0 | 0 | loss |
| 20-Jun | Pirates | 3 | 1 | loss |
| 22-Jun | Phillies | 0 | 0 | loss |
| 23-Jun | Phillies | 0 | 0 | loss |
| 24-Jun | Phillies | 1 | 2 | loss |
I know, I know—how the heck did we win one? But anyone who watched those games (and the rest of the season, for that matter), knows that the problems with this defense are worse than the picture portrayed above. Sure, we have the second worst fielding percentage in the American League (.981), but there have been bunt “hits”, missed double plays, outfield miscues that have turned routine balls into doubles, etc. that aren’t accounted for in the error totals, and thus don’t show up as “unearned runs”.
Don’t believe me? I have one telling detail: Shelley Duncan has zero errors on the season. Therefore he is the Platonic Ideal of a perfect left fielder? I don’t think so.
So let’s look at another fielding metric: Ultimate Zone Rating, or UZR. I wrote a primer here, but basically UZR uses batted ball data to determine how many runs a fielder has saved or cost his team compared to what an average fielder would do. So the “average” defense would have a UZR of 0, while a good defense would have a positive UZR and a bad defense would have a negative UZR. Here is the current UZR leaderboard in the AL teams:
| Team | UZR |
| Rays | 25.8 |
| Red Sox | 22.1 |
| Twins | 17.3 |
| Rangers | 16.4 |
| Tigers | 13.0 |
| Yankees | 6.8 |
| Mariners | 4.2 |
| Athletics | -0.1 |
| White Sox | -9.6 |
| Blue Jays | -12.4 |
| Royals | -14.1 |
| Orioles | -19.7 |
| Angels | -23.3 |
| Indians | -24.5 |
Ah. That’s better. The Indians have the worst UZR in the American League. Their defense has cost them about 25 runs more than what an average major league defense would have. Since we remember that every ten runs saved or scored is roughly equal to a win, that means our defense alone has cost us between two and three wins this season. It’s pretty pathetic, really.
So you know what comes next. Let’s look at the individuals on the team, and check out their contribution to this “defense”. You’ll notice that some players appear more than once in the chart: since UZR is position-specific, players have different UZR’s at different positions. Nonetheless, it’s a counting statistic, so feel free to add the player’s totals to get a feel for their all-around “contribution.”
| Name | Pos | UZR |
| Shin-Soo Choo | RF | 4.9 |
| Russell Branyan | 1B | 4.0 |
| Shelley Duncan | LF | 0.5 |
| Michael Brantley | CF | 0.4 |
| Matt LaPorta | 1B | 0.4 |
| Shelley Duncan | RF | 0.3 |
| Luis Valbuena | 2B | 0.2 |
| Andy Marte | 1B | 0.0 |
| Jason Donald | 2B | -0.1 |
| Michael Brantley | LF | -0.7 |
| Grady Sizemore | CF | -0.7 |
| Andy Marte | 3B | -1.1 |
| Austin Kearns | CF | -1.4 |
| Matt LaPorta | LF | -1.5 |
| Anderson Hernandez | SS | -1.7 |
| Mark Grudzielanek | 2B | -2.3 |
| Austin Kearns | LF | -3.2 |
| Luis Valbuena | SS | -3.5 |
| Asdrubal Cabrera | SS | -4.1 |
| Jhonny Peralta | 3B | -4.3 |
| Trevor Crowe | CF | -4.9 |
| Jason Donald | SS | -5.5 |
Jeez. Is there anything that Shin-Soo Choo doesn’t lead this team in? He’s been our most valuable defender, mostly due to slightly above-average range and his penchant for throwing out advancing runners. Branyan has been an above average first baseman, but remember who he’s being compared to here: Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder and Pablo Sandoval, so the competition definitely helps him out. For his career, Branyan has a UZR/150 (basically, a “season-long” measure) at 1B of +4.5. At 3B, his career UZR/150 is -6.2, so he’s not exactly a defensive superstar.
But let’s look for some big time offenders on the list. Trevor Crowe—who has not gotten a good read on a flyball in his life—currently sports a UZR in CF of -4.9. Granted, he’s a fourth outfielder for a reason, but remember that UZR is a counting statistic, so his limited playing time should limit the depth of his number. But somehow, he has been the second-most costly defender on this team even while starting only 34 games this season.
And look who’s below Crowe: Jason Donald, who has started only 27 games has somehow managed to cost the team between 5 and 6 runs more than an average SS would have during that time. In his limited time at 2B, Donald looks to be about average, but at SS? Well, let’s just say he won’t be challenging Asdrubal for much playing time once the broken arm heals.
Which, I suppose, brings us full-circle. This team was not good defensively coming into the season: last year, the team had a -33.5 UZR for the season. But that was with a decent CF and SS—two of the most crucial defensive positions on the field. Losing Grady and Asdrubal for large chunks of the 2010 season has certainly taken its toll on the offense (we have the third lowest wOBA and OPS in the American League), but I’m not sure we knew just how substandard their replacements would be with the leather.
In any losing season, you try to identify bright spots for moving forward. It should be noted that this defense is not one of those bright spots. Unfortunately, neither is the offense or pitching. Hey, Slider’s been funny, I guess. Man, I got nothing.
But what’s more frustrating than the poor performance is that when Manny Acta took over the managerial reins, he said he’d stress throwing strikes and defensive fundamentals. Well, we’re the worst defensive team in the American League. And what about all those strike-throwers? Our pitchers have given up more walks than any AL team but the Angels.
Color me unimpressed.
13 Comments
ON NO! WE SUCK AGAIN!
“And what about all those strike-throwers? Our pitchers have given up more walks than any AL team but the Angels”
And the Angels are the 2nd worst defensive UZR team. Taking a gross generalization from this (horrible thing to do, but I’m going with it for fun):
Angels and Indians pitchers are AFRAID to throw strikes because they know what happens when the batters make contact!
It is so fun to be an Indians fan
“And what about all those strike-throwers? Our pitchers have given up more walks than any AL team but the Angels.”
…And have the fewest strikeouts, 47 fewer than the next-to-last Nationals (who will quickly climb the ranks with Strasburg from here out).
Is that right that Cabrera is -4.1 UZR for the SS position? If so, then Donald isn’t too much worse, right?
I have a hard time lending credence to a “metric” that lists Russell Branyan as an above-average fielder.
The number for Branyan alone means the formula needs to be reworked. Awful.
I think you guys are probably right. Any system that has good things to say about a player that you don’t like is obviously broken.
C’mon. I know that Branyan is the whipping boy ’round these parts, but the fact remains that for his career, he’s been a slightly above-average first baseman. That’s playing out again this year. I’ve seen him make some bone-headed plays (like the other night when he cost us a run by stepping on first rather than throwing to second), but I’ve also seen him take away some doubles by diving to his left. Like I wrote, he’s a crummy third baseman and always has been. Sorry if any of that ruins a long-held worldview that Branyan is the worst player ever. The Tribe’s problems much deeper than him, I assure you. And anyway, he’ll be gone soon, so we won’t have to think about him much longer.
As for Cabrera, he’s always ranked a bit lower on UZR than I would have thought, but it’s getting to be a sample size I can no longer ignore. It might be one of those cases of making flashy plays but having some trouble with the routine. He DID have 5 errors in only 33 games this season (.970 fielding percentage), so that could be playing into some of it as well. The other thing to remember is that he’s being compared to other shortstops, and there are some pretty great defensive shortstops out there. Would I guess that Cabrera is better than half of the shortstops out there? Yeah, but he’s a long way from the best.
Jon – It has nothing to do with not liking Branyan. It’s about watching what is happening on the field. You even mentioned in your post that Branyan cost the Tribe a run in the game, on a play that wouldn’t have counted against his UZR metric. I’m not knocking metrics, they just don’t tell the whole story.
I remember another play where he charged a ball hit directly to the pitcher and no one was there to cover first. Again, it didn’t count against his UZR, but it did hurt his team.
Metrics are great, they just aren’t the only thing that determines how good of a fielder a player is.
@ Lloyd – Agreed. No number can tell the whole story of a player. I feel like when people see that Branyan has a positive UZR and they freak out, they’re assuming that it’s TRYING to tell the whole story. Totally good point. UZR is not trying to do everything–just to do better than fielding percentage.
But those plays you mentioned WERE counted into Branyan’s UZR (at least the first was–not sure about the second one you referred to). Either way, they absolutely aren’t accounted for in fielding percentage. That’s kind of the point of the post: we’re even worse than the traditional metrics would suggest.
Jon – you’re right – it’s definitely better than fielding percentage. Most metrics are major improvements on “traditional” stats (i.e batting average) that people love to follow. Bottom line, and you hit it on the head, the defense is inexcusably terrible. Seeing the whole picture makes it even worse.
I have no problem with Branyan as a DH. The problem is having a 1B who is unable to bend over. He is unable to move. Any ball thrown below the knees is an adventure. Laporta is no gold glove but a metric needs work if it shows that Branyan is better.
[…] Beyond hitting, Phillips has provided the Reds with excellent glove work. Winning a Gold Glove award in 2008, the former-Indian has committed no more than nine errors at second base since 2007. This season, his fielding percentage is .994 with a UZR/150 of 5.1. For a comparison of this UZR figure (which, mind you, is a bit lower than the last few seasons) to his Cleveland peers, I suggest going here… […]